NCAA Football Free Picks: Week 11

My NCAA Free Picks have 10 games this week, and I’m rolling with the favorite in more than a few. I do have three dogs though- we’ll see how this group plays out. My first game is Thursday Night, and then another on Friday Night, so get those early picks in if you feel my flow… Good Luck! 

TCU Horned Frogs (-2) @ Utah Utes: Well, the Utes are 9-0, that enough is reason to take the TCU Horned Frogs on Thursday Night – undefeated teams should never play on Thursday Night. That being said, I think TCU is the better team and they have nothing to lose here. Also, you always want to take a lower ranked team that is favored over a higher ranked opponent. All these things make this a nice play for me. 

Nevada Wolfpacks (+2.5) @ Fresno State Bulldogs: I know Fresno had a lot of hype coming into the season, a possible BCS Buster and all that jazz, but they just haven’t played well. They are 5-3, so they are making wins happen while playing less than stellar football, but the Wolfpack can play ball. It’s not a big trip for Fresno, they’ve played well against solid teams, and I think they pull the upset here. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (-11.5) @ Northwestern Wildcats: I know Northwestern came out and played through their injuries well against the Minnesota Golden Gophers last week, but something tells me those injuries will catch up with them this time around. Ohio State still has BCS dreams, and the Wildcats won’t get in the way of that. 

Penn State Nittany Lions (-7.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes: Tough team, the Lions are playing on the road, it’s a big conference game, the Lions are undefeated and looking for a Championship, and the Hawkeyes are really underrated. This is the time for them to blow it and come out sluggish. But they are well coached and won’t do such a thing. They win by at least two touchdowns. 

Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+24): Tough to bet against Florida after the beatdowns they’ve been putting on the rest of the SEC these days, but I have to think Vanderbilt plays the Gators tighter than 3 touchdowns and a field goal. They have more resilience than that. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5): I like Oklahoma State, but Texas Tech is very good. Last week wasn’t the normal “upset of #1” instance that usually takes place, and thus I don’t see a let down for Tech this week. TT is a very good football team, and they should have won the game that they won last week. They will win again this week, and I just see a lot of value with Tech at -7 or less against anyone, especially at home. 

North Texas Mean Green (+23) @ Florida Atlantic Owls: I’m interested to see how this one turns out, because despite the records, I see these guys within a score of each other in terms of ability and my team ranking system. I think it’s generally bad to go against unranked teams favored by more than three touchdowns, but the Mean Green look just mean enough in this one. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Boston College (-3.5): Tough call but I don’t think Notre Dame can beat teams that win football games. The Eagles are far from “good” but they aren’t bad, that’s for sure. BC does some good things on defense and offensively. Notre Dame is still overrated. 

Arizona State Sun Devils (-14) @ Washington Huskies: Free Money? I hate to say it, but that’s what it feels like here. Washington isn’t as bad as Washington State, but that’s not saying much. Arizona State has been playing bad, but there’s no kind of medicine that can make you feel better than a date at UW. 

Arizona Wildcats (-38) @ Washington State Cougars: There is absolutely no reason this spread should be so high, except of course because WSU will lose against the spread anyway and thus it only makes sense. It’s that bad folks. Bad weather, at home, everything working in their favor, Arizona wins by 6 touchdowns easy. That being said, this has to back fire one of these days, right?

Free College Football Picks Week 11 – 2007

Week 10 wasn’t successful, but you win some and you lose some – that’s the nitty gritty. For week 11’s action, I have 5 free underdog sides that I’m posting after my 5 free picks, as a sort of double pick bonus for the week of double snake eyes. Celebrating the 11 weeks of my Free College picks thus far this season. Enjoy the big wins! Ride those dogs!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 11

Michigan State Spartans @ Purdue Boilermakers (-4):
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: SBG Belmont)

Michigan State is 1-3 on the road, while the Boilermakers are 5-1 at home. State has always been a poor road team, and obviously Purdue feels most comfortable in front of their home crowd. Weird. Purdue’s offense and overall team make-up is much more impressive than the Spartans unit that seems to be wearing down fast after losing 5 of their last 6 ball games. The games have all been close, but that kind of wear and tear on a football teams’ mental psyche can certainly have an impact. Always getting close and always coming short can only allow you so many “moral victories”. Those kind of wins are over in Michigan State – Purdue will assist that assurance.

Indiana Hoosiers (-2) @ Northwestern Wildcats
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Hoosiers are the much better team here. Some expect a let down after the Hoosiers got a much needed win over Ball State last week, but I don’t see it. They’ve handled every bad team they’ve played all season long, and a couple decent squads as well. They have 4 losses on the season, all to Big 10 contenders, Wisconsin, Penn State, Mich State, and Illinois. The Wildcats shouldn’t put up much of a fight, despite the Hoosiers two game road losing streak. They still beat Iowa in Iowa. Look for Kellen Lewis and James Hardy to hook up for a couple TD passes that seal the deal, and the 7th win for Indiana. Indy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and they haven’t lost a game that they’ve been favored in all season long.

North Carolina @ North Carolina State (-3.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

North Carolina played around with the idea that they were back in the mix as a solid college football program, but like many pretenders realize, the early months can mask the reality of the matter, and a few close games haven’t amounted to anything in terms of their record. They sit at 3-6. North Carolina State has played better and better as the season has moved forward, while the Tarheels struggled besides a win against Miami, and a win over Maryland last week. This week, they go on the road, where they’ve been terrible thus far. They lost at East Carolina in Week 2, at South Florida (10-37) in Week 4, at VaTech in Week 5, and at Wake Forest (10-37) in Week 8. They are 0-4 on the road. NC State should win by 10.

South Florida Bulls (-16) @ Syracuse Orange:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Syracuse is bad, and the Bulls are a solid football team. Sure, they have struggled of late, but they won’t turn the ball over like they did last week, and I don’t see the Orange doing much in terms of stopping South Florida either. Defensively, I expect 10 points or less out of the Orange, which means 27 points from SF will win it. They’ve scored at least that much in 6 of their 9 games. This will be the 7th time.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+9) @ Clemson Tigers:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

I’m pretty sure this is the game Clemson always loses. Yep, they tease the public into believing they are for real, win some big games, and then fold like a freaking lawn chair. I don’t know how to see it any other way, the Deacons are no pushover, and they play their best ball when their opponent is supposed to be a big favorite. Over the last 3 seasons, the Tigers are 15-19 ATS as a favorite. And while they are 11-2 SU in games where they are favored by 7.5 or more over the last three seasons, the Tigers don’t seem to play well when they are playing in a game that will decide the difference between a very nice season, and a Clemson-like mediocre campaign.

Five Free Dogs!

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (+5.5)
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodog)

Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers (+3):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodoglife)

Illinois Fighting Illini (+15.5) @ Ohio State Buckeyes:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodoglife)

Connecticut Huskies (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bearcats:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6.5) @ Texas Longhorns:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)