Tag Archives: Free Fantasy Picks

2009 Fantasy Football Tiered Player Rankings: Lucky Lester’s Top 220

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I’m back again with yet another fantasy article, this one rates out my top 220 players for this season and this season only. I’ve already busted out a dynasty chart (without rookies) for the next three years, you could check that out here. It’s an older article, and while some things have changed, that look should give you a decent view of the future if you find yourself in a dynasty league late this fall – but remember, it happened before the draft, and thus is without rookies, a valuable resource in dynasty leagues.

I’ve also spent a little time busting out some tiered rankings for each position, hopefully helping you on draft day – check that out here. I’m breaking these down into tiers as well, because a ranking list is nothing without a little crying game. Also, looking at my final rankings and my earlier tiered rankings, you’ll see some small differences. Why? Well, that’s because things happen over a month that give me reason to move players up and down. Nothing is concrete!

When I rank players, I’m not saying, “this is going to be the final points standings at years’ end”, no, I’m saying that this is the order of value, fantasy points, and upside going into draft day, a sort of cheat sheet to help you assess value on D-Day. Hope this helps!

First Tier

1.	Adrian Peterson – Favre signing just enough to get him on top.
2.	Maurice Jones Drew
3.	Matt Forte
4.	Michael Turner – I might not be giving him enough credit, looks great!

Second Tier

5.	LaDainian Tomlinson
6.	Steve Slaton
7.	Frank Gore
8.	Andre Johnson
9.	Larry Fitzgerald
10.	DeAngelo Williams – J-Stew’s injury woes has Williams moving up.
11.	Steven Jackson
12.	Chris Johnson
13.	Randy Moss – Randy is Tom’s favorite weapon.
14.	Brian Westbrook

Third Tier

15.	Steve Smith
16.	Calvin Johnson
17.	Clinton Portis – All four of these backs are great value picks…
18.	Ronnie Brown - …
19.	Ryan Grant - …
20.	Brandon Jacobs – His O-line is the stuff championships are made of.
21.	Marion Barber
22.	Tom Brady
23.	Drew Brees

Forth Tier

24.	Anquan Boldin – Best #2 in the league.
25.	Reggie Wayne – Still one of the best with one of the best tossing him balls.
26.	Greg Jennings
27.	Darren McFadden – all the talent in the world, lots of touches.
28.	Roddy White
29.	Terrell Owens
30.	Marques Colston

Fifth Tier

31.	Marshawn Lynch
32.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Housh looks like a 115 catch guy to me.
33.	Eddie Royal – Marshall moves down, Eddie moves up!
34.	Vincent Jackson
35.	Dwayne Bowe
36.	Derrick Ward – A pretty risky pick considering RB talent in Tampa Bay.
37.	Larry Johnson
38.	Knowshon Moreno – I still believe!
39.	Wes Welker
40.	Jason Witten

Sixth Tier

41.	Reggie Bush
42.	Joseph Addai – Running with something to prove, should be decent.
43.	Chad Johnson
44.	Anthony Gonzalez – This guy is crafty.
45.	Pierre Thomas
46.	Roy Williams
47.	Kurt Warner
48.	Peyton Manning
49.	DeSean Jackson – Has looked better in year 2, moving up my list.
50.	Aaron Rodgers
51.	Phillip Rivers
52.	Antonio Gates
53.	Tony Romo
54.	Donovan McNabb
55.	LenDale White
56.	Felix Jones
57.	Thomas Jones
58.	Julius Jones – No love for JJ, I think he’ll be solid.
59.	Ray Rice
60.	Dallas Clark
61.	Tony Gonzalez

Seventh Tier

62.	Matt Schaub – Please stay healthy and prove me right!
63.	Lee Evans
64.	Bernard Berrien – Brett at least gives Berrien more flavor.
65.	Matt Hasselbeck – Matt’s moving up my list.
66.	Santana Moss
67.	Braylon Edwards
68.	Jonathan Stewart – Many upside here.
69.	Jamal Lewis – His offense may be terrible, but his O-line is solid.
70.	Tim Hightower
71.	Carson Palmer – Hurt again?
72.	Lance Moore
73.	Beanie Wells
74.	Jay Cutler – Looked better than I thought he would, but still not top notch.
75.	Chris Cooley
76.	Matt Ryan – I’m not believing 25+ touchdowns in year 2.
77.	Brandon Marshall – I hear he’s having some problems.

Eighth Tier

78.	Leon Washington – I think he’ll be used more this season.
79.	Cedric Benson
80.	Willie Parker
81.	Hines Ward
82.	Owen Daniels
83.	Greg Olsen
84.	Santonio Holmes
85.	Jericho Cotchery
86.	Antonio Bryant
87.	Devin Hester – Hasn’t shown much in the pre-season, should change though.

Ninth Tier

88.	David Garrard
89.	Matt Cassel
90.	Kellen Winslow – has yet to catch a ball in the pre-season.
91.	Torry Holt
92.	Rashard Mendenhall
93.	Ben Roethlisberger
94.	Donald Brown
95.	Jerious Norwood – One of the best back-up backs in the league.
96.	Darren Sproles
97.	Ahmad Bradshaw – looks really good in the pre-season.
98.	John Carlson
99.	Kyle Orton
100.	Nate Burleson – people are forgetting about him, do.
101.	Donnie Avery – Should be healthy by week one, #1 receiver late.
102.	Derrick Mason – old and good, not unlike the guy right below.
103.	Donald Driver

Tenth Tier

104.	Trent Edwards – Like him with Lee and TO out wide.
105.	Fred Jackson
106.	Kevin Walter
107.	Brett Favre – Hmmm…. I wonder.
108.	Zach Miller
109.	Dominik Hixon
110.	Cadillac Williams – Looked good to me, hope he gets more touches.
111.	LeSean McCoy
112.	Nate Washington – Better than people know, hurt early, good late pick.
113.	Joe Flacco
114.	Josh Morgan
115.	Daunte Culpepper – If the job was his, guarantee, I’d rank him higher.
116.	Chad Pennington
117.	Jason Campbell
118.	Ted Ginn Jr. – Super fast WR coming into his own.
119.	Steve Breaston
120.	Chris Henry – Yes, the #3 is ranked higher than the #2.
121.	Vinsanthe Shiancoe
122.	Earnest Graham
123.	Laveranues Coles
124.	Percy Harvin
125.	Jabar Gaffney
126.	Michael Crabtree – This guy is a soap opera already.
127.	Tony Scheffler
128.	Dustin Keller
129.	Fred Taylor
130.	Kenny Britt – Moving on up, lots of talent.
131.	Kevin Curits – Not sure if his upside is high enough for me to get late.
132.	Correll Buckhalter
133.	Jake Delhomme
134.	Jeremy Shockey
135.	Willis McGahee
136.	Chester Taylor
137.	Michael Bush
138.	Shaun Hill
139.	Eli Manning
140.	James Davis
141.	Shonn Greene – Like his talent, just don’t like 3rd RBs too much.
142.	JaMarcus Russell – has looked solid so far this pre-season.
143.	Le’Ron McClain
144.	Sammy Morris
145.	Justin Forsett

Eleventh Tier

146.	Laurence Maroney
147.	Tashard Choice
148.	Marc Bulger
149.	Chaz Schillens – hurt early, but looks good to me.
150.	Patrick Crayton
151.	Michael Clayton
152.	Isaac Bruce
153.	Joey Galloway
154.	Mark Clayton
155.	Earl Bennett ¬– Not sure he is fast enough.
156.	Maurice Stovall – Could be in line for starting duties.
157.	Brady Quinn
158.	Bobby Engram
159.	Vernon Davis
160.	Mohammad Massoquoi
161.	Peyton Hillis
162.	Hakeem Nicks
163.	Jeremy Maclin – The speedster might be a nice second half pick-up.
164.	Mark Sanchez
165.	Glen Coffee
166.	Steve Smith (NYG)
167.	Chris Chambers
168.	Anthony Fasano
169.	Jamaal Charles
170.	Mike Bell
171.	Sidney Rice
172.	Edgerrin James
173.	Ricky Williams
174.	Troy Williamson – Has the speedster finally arrived?
175.	Deion Branch
176.	Justin Fargas
177.	Brandon Petitgrew
178.	Laurent Robinson – liked him better than Mike Jenkins in ATL too.
179.	Michael Jenkins
180.	Mushin Muhammad
181.	Kevin Boss
182.	Malcom Kelly
183.	Brent Celek
184.	David Clowney – Becoming number two?
185.	Mark Bradley
186.	Miles Austin
187.	Bo Scaife
188.	Ladell Betts
189.	JerMichael Finley
190.	Chris Brown – could be a TD stealer, but I doubt it.
191.	Devone Bess
192.	DeShawn Wynn
193.	Mike Walker
194.	James Jones
195.	Dominic Rhodes
196.	Pierre Garcon
197.	Jordy Nelson
198.	Michael Vick – In deep leagues, maybe?
199.	Limas Sweed – Nate Washington’s targets?
200.	Antwan Randel-El
201.	Deon Butler
202.	Kevin Jones
203.	Jonnie Lee Higgins
204.	Heath Miller
205.	Marion Manningham
206.	Robert Meachem
207.	Brian Robiskie
208.	Chase Coffman
209.	Todd Heap
210.	Brandon Jackson – Could be #2 still, had a tough camp.
211.	Byron Leftwich
212.	Matthew Stafford
213.	Kerry Collins
214.	Sage Rosenfels – So much for sleeper, thanks Brett!
215.	Matt Leinart
216.	Vince Young
217.	Chad Henne
218.	Samkon Gado
219.	Bernard Scott
220.	Tarvaris Jackson – Mr. Irrelevant could play well if he gets the chance.

theRUNDOWN: Week 11

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Last week was one of my better RUNDOWN’s despite Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings pooping their respective bunk beds. This is my RUNDOWN for Week 11…

QB: Jay Cutler vs. Atlanta: I’m hoping to be wrong about this one, because I play against Cutler in some pretty big leagues this week – but the kid should have a nice game against a Falcons team that has been playing better in the secondary – it’s time to come back to reality folks.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: Forte is the Bears offense, the Packers can’t stop the run, Matt catches passes with ease – nice play here.

RB: Frank Gore vs. St.Louis: Not only do I like Frank and his matchup – but how do you think the kid feels after falling down and costing his team a win last week? I’d like to think that he has a huge game against the Rams here.

FLEX: DeAngelo Williams vs. Detroit: I like some touchdowns against the Lions defense – weird.

WR: Anquan Boldin vs. Seattle: Because nobody can stop this guy. He’s a touchdown machine.

WR: Roddy White vs. Denver: I like Roddy a ton, and so does Matt Ryan – that means good things for both of us against the Broncos “secondary” – brutal.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. New Orleans: He may be old, but he’s damn good, and he’s getting targeted by Thigpen more than any other player on KC’s roster.

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Buffalo: I’d go for Gostkowski, but I’m late – he already had a huge game. So I’ll take Jason Elam to put up a couple field goals and about 4-5 extra points. Let the field goals be long ones Jason!!!

D: Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit: Two weeks in a row? Hey, blame the schedulers – Oakland and Detroit back to back is like Halloween and Christmas clumped into one. That’s right, girls dressed in hot little outfits and presents.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Amazingly, you can still get him and he’s probably your best starting option this week. I know he’s starting for me. Does that mean bad things? Hmmm….

Matt Ryan: Is he a sleeper still? He’s a nice play against Denver.

Ricky Williams: They want to get him the ball more, he looks solid, he plays Oakland. There you have it. There’s a chance you can pick him up to fill in for Steven Jackson. Do it.

Jerious Norwood: I’d rather start Norwood in a PPR league than a big clump of starters this week – so he’s a nice sleeper option.

Brandon Jones: He’s been consistent over the last few weeks, and Jacksonville’s defense is lost – he’s a decent option.

Mark Bradley: He might still be available – don’t hesitate.

Deion Branch: He’s risky, no doubt, but pick him up at least. He’s back, and so is my bald brother Matt – so don’t mess around.

Billy Miller: I’ll go with Billy until Jeremy Shockey pulls his head out. Got me?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Should stop the run enough to make Gus throw – that means picks.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

David Garrard: I don’t think much of David against the TItans – Jacksonville will try to run all day. That won’t work either, but goodness, I don’t see Jacksonville scoring more than once.

Willis McGahee: No thank you. I don’t think Willis has played well in two straight games this whole season. The Giants will hammer out the Ravens run I reckon.

Brandon Jacobs: He looked pretty banged up last week and this week is pure death, Baltimore. I would stay away from Jacobs if you have another option.

TJ Houshmanzadeh: If you can still get good stuff for him, trade him, this week is a start of a terrible schedule the rest of the way.

Ten for Tuesday

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This isn’t going to be as wordy as most of my stuff – but it might just give you a life line moving forward…

Guys I like to pick up this week…

Brady Quinn – He’s intriguing, what can I say? It’s not like his offense doesn’t have talent, and I’ll promise he’s more accurate than Derek Anderson – that right there is enough for me.

Tyler Thigpen – One day I’ll learn not to pull the trigger on Coastal Carolina quarterbacks, but not this time. Nope. Tyler has some very good passing match-ups coming up here, he might help a fool down the line.

Sage Rosenfels – You bet. I don’t think the Texans lose that much with Sage coming in for Matt – a little, yes, but not that much. Sage will still put the ball in the air a lot.

Timothy Hightower – His name says toughness, his running style does to – but don’t get crazy over this kid – don’t give up a lot to get him – they played one of, if not the worst run defense in the league last week, a D giving up 150+ on the ground. He’s a solid pick-up, but he’s not a sure thing starter every week.

Jamal Charles – This kid is fast and you know the Chiefs will give him the ball. KC is doing everything they can to rid themselves of Larry Johnson, and Charles is fast enough to break a run against solid defenses. That being said, he plays for the Chiefs and I’m not in love with the guy. I might rather have Jerious Norwood, and he’s a back-up.

Ryan Torain  – I actually like him more than Charles. Pittman and Hall are out for the year, Torain has lots of upside, Selvin Young doesn’t seem to be a favorite of Splinter. If Young’s on your waiver wire, he might be worth an addition as well.

Joe Flacco – I like the kid. He might not have many weeks like he did last time around, but I like the kid to do some right and very little wrong. He’s solid.

Sammy Morris – when he comes back he’ll be the guy getting all those Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis carries. The Patriots will continue to run the ball with Tom out for the year.

Guys I don’t like besides recent adding activity…

Rex Grossman – I’m off his fan bus.

Cedric Benson – I know he has a nice game, but Benson doesn’t do it for me.

Kevin Boss – This guy killed me too much to start the year, he’s too good at blocking for a team with lots of receiving options.

Guys I wouldn’t drop just yet…

Josh Morgan – I don’t like that he dropped a ball and got benched, that seems like a joke, but the kid has skills and could be nice the rest of the year. Wait a week on him.

Matt Schaub – unless you are dying for a roster spot and need lots of wins in these next few weeks before playoffs, I would try to hold on to Matt – he’s solid.

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 8

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Week 8 had some nice plays, this is what the final tally brought in…  151 for me on Sunday – that’s a solid week all the way around. I’d like to thank my kicker, Gostkowski, for his leadership in my total… 

QB: Donovan McNabb vs. Atlanta: McNabb’s 16 fantasy points got him into the Top 10 this week, but I expected more against Atlanta. Unfortunately it was Brian Westbrook tallying all the fantasy points in Philly. 

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Detroit: Portis played a little more than a half, but still got plenty of looks and finished with 126 yards. He tallied just 13 fantasy points though, and I needed more. 

RB: Thomas Jones vs. Kansas City: Jones was a victim of Brett’s interceptions on Sunday, getting just 14 carries, but doing enough with those to get 12 fantasy points. Still, 12 is not something I like to see from my top guys. 

FLEX: Steve Slaton vs. Cincinnati: Just 14 for Slaton. The Texans didn’t need to slam their rookie runner that long, they were up big and got the ball to other people as the day went forward. 

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Carolina: 7 catches for 115 yards against the Panthers, but he was once again shut out of the end-zone – damn Anquan Boldin’s red zone dominance! 18 points for Larry. 

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cincinnati: Andre had 25 big ones again this week, catching 11 more balls for 143 yards. No touchdowns once again – it’s really amazing that you could catch 22 balls for 284 yards in two weeks and not find the end-zone. Not happy amazing, but amazing nonetheless. 

TE: Antonio Gates vs. New Orleans: Gates was second to Dallas Clark with 6 catches for 96 yards and a score in the Chargers loss to New Orleans in England. 21 fantasy points from the former hooper. 

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. St. Louis:I went with Ghost for the 2nd week in a row and I was rewarded – this week I got 12 from Stephen and he was a Top 5 guy. I’m loving it! 

D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland: 19 fantasy points in my league, a nice day of tormenting the Raiders – that’s for sure. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrard: Garrard did everything for the Jaguars in their 4th loss of the season, and was the 2nd rated quarterback on Sunday with 283 yards 2 touchdowns, and 59 rushing yards. He was doing work. A+

Jason Campbell: His highest yardage output of the season, Campbell went for 328 a touchdown and still no picks. That was good for 17 and good for a B+. 

LenDale White: LenDale pulled one of his all time best Jerome Bettis impersonations carrying the ball 11 times for just 13 yards, but still managing 14 fantasy points because of his two short scores. His last one was huge, a great effort giving the Titans a nice lead. B

Jamal Lewis: 81 yards and a touchdown for Lewis, not a bad day at all. B-

Vincent Jackson: 4 grabs for 60 yards and a touchdown – 16 points was another productive day from Vincent. B

Josh Morgan: Didn’t see a catch. Dropped one ball to start with and I think he was taken out. That’s a good way to coach – STUPID! F

Billy Miller: Great day for Billy, he greatly outscored Jeremy Shockey and finished with 7 catches for 82 yards, giving him 15 fantasy points. For a waiver wire pick-up he might have won you your game. 

New York Jets: Just 6 points against the Chiefs – bad day for the Jets, bad day for me taking them as my sleeper D – Brett’s interceptions and the Jets turnovers put their D on the field way too much. F

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Matt Cassel: 267 passing a touchdown and two picks – Cassel’s day wasn’t good by any means, but it wasn’t as bad as I expected either. 

Mewelde Moore: Moore played great – I am wrong about him. He does lots of little things in the passing game and is hard to stop completely because of it. 

Dominic Rhodes: Rhodes is the same thing as Moore, a tough player to stop because he’s going to get open in the passing game and do work there too. He finished a point behind Mewelde, and both made me look foolish. 

Roddy White: 8 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Roddy is officially one of those receivers that never have bad match-ups, just bad games. He’s too physical for corner backs, and his speed get him where he needs to be. Nice day for Roddy, bad day for me. 

theRUNDOWN: Week 9

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Just in case you didn’t catch it, this is my RUNDOWN for Week 8…

QB: Matt Schaub vs. Minnesota: Maybe I’m a little edgy for taking Schaub (and his Texans) to do good work on the road against a team coming off a bye. My guess, Minnesota didn’t fix their terrible secondary over a bye week. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. Detroit: Clinton Portis killed the Lions in limited action – I expect Detroit to be a little better, but Matt is a big time focus of the Lions offense – I can’t imagine him getting less than 20 fantasy points this week. 

RB: Earnest Graham vs. Kansas City: Thomas Jones was the guy hurt most by the Jets willingness to throw interceptions last week, well, I think Earnest Graham does work against the Chiefs in Week 9. Warrick Dunn is likely out for this contest, leaving Graham to snag all the carries. 

FLEX: Brandon Marshall vs. Miami: The Dolphins are solid run stuffers, and their secondary is porous. Marshall hasn’t gone off in a while now, and I expect that to change in a hurry. 

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. St. Louis: Anquan Boldin has been catching all the touchdowns, but I get a feeling that Fitz will be the high scorer for the Cards this week. 

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Minnesota: Honestly, I’d take Johnson against any defense in the league. That being said, I get a little smile when I see MInnesota on the schedule. All Andre needs to do is score, he has only two on the season. 

TE: Zach Miller vs. Atlanta: A big sure handed TE is a quarterback’s best friend. In PPR leagues I think Miller has a really nice day against the Falcons secondary. 

K: Matt Prater vs. Miami: IN Denver against a defense that isn’t good enough to shut down the Broncos, but isn’t bad enough to allow touchdowns on every drive, I think Prater gets his leg going. 

D: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle: The Eagles can really get after the quarterback, they have 3 talented corners, (very talented), and they have playmaking safeties. They should eat up the Seagulls. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrad: This time Garrard gets Cincinnati and I think he has a decent day, he’s not my favorite sleeper, but he’s worth a shot. 

Chad Pennington: I know it’s a bye week happy stat, but just one quarterback over the past 4 weeks has thrown for more yards than Pennington (Brees I think) – I know that sounds crazy, but Chad has been putting up close to 300 or more every week. This week is Denver sans Champ Bailey – yhatzee!!!

Maurice Jones Drew: Big week for MJD. 

Justin Fargas: Not only has Fargas been the best back in Oakland, but this week he’ll likely go at the Atlanta Falcons without Darren McFadden stealing his touches. I like my chances on picking up Fargas and starting him. 

Donnie Avery: This may be a duh call, but Avery goes up against a Cardinals secondary that can really give up the deep ball – he’s bee good lately, and Arizona can stop the run enough to force the pass – and force it the Rams will.

Chad Johnson: It’s been a tough year when Chad Johnson has been relegated to Sleeper status. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be getting a little more comfortable and Chad could always have a huge day. He’s no sure thing, but against a mediocre Jags secondary, I think Chad has a solid day. 80 yards and a score for his best day of the year?

Greg Olsen: Greg goes up against the Lions. He’s talented and a tough match-up for a slow secondary. Seems like a good play to me. 

New England Patriots: This may be a long shot, but the Colts have no running attack, that allows Coach Bill to scheme against one thing, the pass. They may be hurting, but I like the Pats to get to Manning and produce a few turnovers. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Big Ben Roethlisberger: This guy is bound to get hurt with the way teams hit him – he’s a questionable play the rest of the season in my mind – I think Washington gets to him a few times here. 

Ryan Grant: Those who know me know I dig Ryan Grant, but the cat has been struggling with lots of carries and minimal yards against pretty pathetic defenses. These are the Titans, and in greek mythology the Titans were even greater than the gods… 

Edgerrin James: For eternity folks, bench him that long. I’ve been one of his biggest fans, but there’s a time when you have to let go, when he’s still a strong bench him candidate against the Rams, now’s that time. 

Terrell Owens: TO has the ability to go off anytime – he historically eats up the Giants – all that means little to me right now because I’m benching TO this week. 

Three for Thursday

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Okay, in just a second I have three teams (with player sets) that you might want to trade off or stay away from because of their tough schedules moving forward. But first, here this… 

I forgot the Broncos yesterday – they have one decent secondary for the rest of the season (Carolina in Week 16) – aside from the Panthers, Denver plays Cleveland, Atlanta, Oakland, the Jets, Kansas City, Buffalo, and San Diego. Not that Brandon Marshall wasn’t a great option before, but how does he look now? With Tony Scheffler coming back and Eddie Royal completely healthy, and a possible starting option at running back (Ryan Torrain) coming into the mix, I think the Broncos passing attack looks scary as ever. Scheffler and Torrain might be on waivers right now, if that’s the case, rock out and pick them up. 

Okay, now for some tough schedules you may want to avoid…

Cincinnati Bengals: As if the situation in Cinci could get any worse, they have a brutal schedule moving forward. Talk about tough, after this week against Jacksonville, the Bengals have a bye. Then it’s a place where two star receivers go to die – that’s right, they play the Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, and Colts – all top ranked pass defenses. Redskins, Browns, and Chiefs, to finish the season, but it gets a heck of a lot worse before it gets better. If there’s any value out there for Housh, Chad Johnson, or (well that’s it I guess) – I would make good and see them off. 

The Browns are in the same division as the Bengals, and it looks like their schedule has some big time tough ones as well. Lucky for you guys, the Browns also play the Broncos, Texans, Colts (Jamal Lewis owners anyway), and Bengals. Who else do they play? Well it starts this weekend against the Ravens, and the Bills, and the Titans, and the Eagles, and they end the season with the Steelers. This years’ Saints could end up looking a lot like last years’ Saints, without all those late season offensive numbers – yeah, uh oh. 

The 49ers also have a little bit of an interesting go. Aside from the Rams twice, San Francisco doesn’t have another great match-up for Frank Gore owners. The Cardinals, Cowboys, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins are all solid if not very good run defenses. I know Frank Gore can do good work against anyone (except the Giants – 11 rushes for 11 yards, also 3 grabs for 50) – but his first half was riddled with Seahawks (twice), Lions, Saints, Patriots – he’s got some tough ones down the stretch. Still, I’d keep him unless you get good value for him, which you probably can considering the goods he’s put up so far this season.

Five for Friday

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I know my uncle does the good starts bad starts “theRUNDOWN” action, but this week I have some solid plays that you might be steering clear of. Just remember, just because there’s a tough match-up doesn’t mean you should ignore your good players – it also means that you might be starting a lesser option (ie Thomas Jones) over a better player (ie Michael Turner) to get the best chance of big points. Here’s my Top 5 “interesting” starts of the week. 

Matt Schaub is going up against the 6th ranked pass defense, but that doesn’t mean you should start him. In fact, I’d start him over Brett Favre and a bunch of quarterbacks ranked higher than Matty. Schaub should do work against the Bengals, and I don’t expect him to slow down at all this week. Andre Johnson plays like a big brother beasting opposing corner backs, and I see that trend continuing against the youngsters manning the corner in Cincinnati. 

Jeff Garcia is playing at Dallas. Dallas is in shambles and while I wouldn’t shoot for Garcia many weeks, I think his numbers against the Cowboys should be solid. I think Dallas will play better against the run, but Garcia and the Bucs should find plenty of room in Dallas’s secondary. Garcia makes plays with his feet, and that should be on display this week in Dallas. 

Michael Turner plays a top rated run defense when the Eagles host the Falcons this week, and most people are resting Turner thinking he’ll get shut down like he has recently against very good run defenses. Not to fast on labeling the Eagles stout against the run, though. See, Philly gave up about 150 to Portis and 101 to Gore (in limited rushes) in back to back weeks. Turner runs hard, and Philly’s front line is undersized. Maybe this isn’t such a bad match-up after all. 

I see some things out there saying, “Don’t start Cotchery against the Chiefs” and I can’t seem to figure it out. Sure, the Jets will probably run twice as much as they pass, but Brett takes chances, it’s just part of his game. It doesn’t look like Coles will be playing this week, and Cotchery is the better receiver anyway. All things aside, I’d bet Cotchery gets about 7 balls for 80+ yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. Those are start him numbers to me. 

Nate Washington against the Giants. Santonio Holmes might be suspended, and Nate is a good bet to get 5 or 6 looks even if he doesn’t start. Mewelde Moore and the Steeler running game won’t be great this week and that means Big Ben will have to pass. I like Washington’s size and Ben’s confidence going to him in and near the red zone. I think he’s a solid start this week, where most people aren’t even thinking about getting him close to roster spot, let alone a starting lineup. Swim against the flow!

Ten for Tuesday

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  1. Did I tell you to pick up Jamal Lewis or what? He’s got a more user friendly schedule now, and he played well against the Giants and his team is looking up. He probably got more expensive, but he might still be worth it – he could have a really nice final 2/3s of the season.

  2. Bernard Berrian – yep. BB is really fast and he’s always open. Sure, he drops some balls but he catches some too. Two straight big weeks for Berrian and I think he has his best season as a pro – so if he’s still available or if you can get him as a bonus in a trade, fell happy to do work.

  3. Yes, Braylon Edwards is just as good as you thought he was coming into the season. Those of you who traded him when he was playing poorly – hahahaha – never sell low. Those of you that pilfered the super-talented touchdown machine, good on ya – and those of you that just held on to the big receiver, patiently waiting for his value to skyrocket – you played your cards right.

  4. Does Roy Williams’ value increase? Tough call – I think it does just because he’s happier in his situation now, and while he’s shown over the years that he is a tid bit immature, he has also shown that, when happy and included, he is a damn good young receiver. He’ll be a nice addition as a #2 behind TO, and he’ll get a lot of open looks in a Cowboys offense in which defenses pay a lot of attention to TO, Witten, and Marion Barber – but Romo is out for the next 3 games, and I’m not sure Roy will be the best option during those weeks where the Cowboys will almost certainly throw less and run more.

  5. Just to let everyone know, I prepared you for Thomas Jones big days a coming – he, and the rest of the Jets, play one of the easiest schedules in football from here on out. That means less chances for Brett and more runs for the Jets running backs. This is where Jones makes his owners happy and while you might be too late to get a good deal, I don’t think trading him now is the best option. He’s got some real nice match-ups coming up.

  6. Matt Schaub is a really good fantasy quarterback. I see that he is still available in a lot of leagues, and newsflash folks, he’s better than lots of guys that are owned in more leagues than him. In 3 of his 4 starts he’s been a great starting option and I don’t think that will change. He’ll have some down weeks, this is just his second year as a starter and he was hurt a lot last season – but he’ll have 3 good games out of every 4 and with Andre Johnson out wide, they could be really big games. AJ is a beast!

  7. Despite losing Roy Williams, it seems to be a great deal for the Lions. They’ll probably start Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey, two sure-handed wideouts that can do work over the middle of the field. I actually think this is not only good for the franchise (1st, 3rd, 6th picks next draft) – but it’s good for Calvin Johnson too. CJ won’t have competition on deep balls and while he might see more double teams, he’ll have an even better season without Roy along side him.

  8. The Chiefs are so dumb. They hold onto Tony Gonzalez when a 3rd round pick was for the taking. Gonzo is really good and he’s 32, they weren’t getting anything more than that and they could have gotten help in the future. If they didn’t draft so crappy this would have been an even better deal. I guess they probably considered the fact that they’d probably reach for a DT and miss on that selection, thus there was no reason to get any pick. I thin Gonzo continues to be a solid TE even though his squad is a short one line joke.

  9. Shaun Alexander – haha – I hope he doesn’t steal end-zone looks from Portis. I don’t think he will and he shouldn’t be picked up, so let someone else make that mistake.

  10. Go RAYS, Go!!! Sorry baseball haters, I had to – gotta love them young guns in Tampa – do work sons!