Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 5

I couldn’t get the deal done last week, but I still answered all the questions that came in. So those of you that wrote in, keep doing so. Those of you that want to write in but can’t figure out how, send me an email at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – questions asked will be questions answered. As for football this weekend, my respect goes out to Brett Favre. The Packers weren’t going to let Adrian Peterson beat them, and Brett didn’t mind one bit, he just went out and threw lasers all over the field to beat his former team. Good on ya Brett! On to the questions…

I’m Tim Too asks, “Do I trade Rashard Mendenhall now, with his value oh-so-high, or do I wait until after Detroit for him to have even more value?” I have Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Knowshon Moreno already, and I need help at receiver to pair with my current trio of Carolina’s Steve Smith, Nate Burleson, and Roddy White. If I can trade Mendenhall for Boldin, should I do it? Or should I wait and see if I can’t trade Mendenhall for Andre Johnson after this weekend?”

I would trade Mendenhall for Boldin right now if you could. I like Mendenhall, and my nephew absolutely loves the guy, but you have great backs and solid receivers, but Boldin would probably be your surest thing moving forward. You never know what Tomlin is going to do with Rashard, how his youth will get taught lessons, and how Willie Parker will be used in that offense. What you do know is that if Boldin is on the field he is a PPR machine that makes touchdowns happen. And while Kurt Warner likes him, Matt Leinart relies even more on Boldin. So no matter what happens in Arizona, you’d think Boldin does big things. I’d rather have Andre Johnson, but what if Mendenhall doesn’t dominate the Lions, what if Parker gets half the carries, I think that if you are going to trade Mendenhall, Boldin is a nice get in return.

William out West types, “Papa, I’ve been offered a trade in my league that rewards big plays, has yardage performances, and goes all the way to the end of the season. It’s a points league. Kyle Orton and Julius Jones for Frank Gore and Heath Evens. I am currently 4th in my league standings and the Top 4 teams get paid. It’s a big money league. Do I trade Frank, and his bum wheel, for a good back-up QB (my current back up is Vick) and running back help right now?”

William, no. Frank Gore might miss two more games. If he stays healthy after that, he’s a strong candidate to get 100 yard games multiple times, he’s the bell-cow in that offense, and Mike Singletary likes to feed him the rock. The last time he played he went for 200+ yards against the Hawks. His defense is very good and the offensive line is physical. Kyle Orton is solid, but the way the Steelers have been throwing the ball, I’d rather have Big Ben in almost every situation. Stick to your guns, ride out the rest of the way with Frank Gore, because in a league like this he has some great value. See if you can’t pick up a guy like Jerome Harrison off waivers, and just do your best to make it through the tough time that Gore is down. Think future, 2 games out now might be good for 10 games healthy in the future.

Desmond Parker says, “I know you are a fantasy guy, and the general football questions go to your nephew, but do you have a sure thing survivor pick for me this week? I can’t take the Ravens, Vikings, Packers, or Colts. Any help is good help as long as I stay in my pool…”

Desmond, funny you should ask, I like to call myself the survivor pool guru. A few years ago, when the Saints were playing well and St. Louis was winless, I took the Rams in the survivor pool as the single opponent I was going up against took the Saints. Well, the Rams were winless no more and I got paid. Now that’s balls. Luckily, this week you don’t need those kind of rocks, you have lots of good options. I’d rank them as follows. Giants @ home against Oakland, Philadelphia @ home against Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh @ Detroit. I’d stay with the home teams, but if you really don’t like those two games, the Steelers should blow out their first opponent this season. Good luck Desmond, feel free to write in anytime – any football question is good enough for me!

Fantasy Football Analysis: Ten For Tuesday

“Brett Favre looked like the much better quarterback all night long, but in the end his fantasy points were very similar to Aaron Rodgers’ totals. Ridiculous.” That’s what a buddy posted on my fantasy league’s message board after Monday Night’s game. So what, the people out there that want to believe great fantasy numbers make you the best player is confused. This is fantasy football, where team wins matter little, and garbage time is tacked on just the same. Rodgers put up 380+ yards, more than a 100 more than Brett. He gave up a couple turnovers, but those high numbers kept the fantasy night close. You can’t score points based on how good you looked, it’s all about numbers in this one….    Rashard Mendenhall looked like the beast I thought he would be since he decided to leave Illinois. Now he runs a little high, and that could subject him to some big hits, but he hits the hole hard, runs with power, and often spins or bounces off that first tackle. If he continues to get touches, he’s a nice find for those owners that either picked him up or kept him during his early woes. When he came out, I thought Mendenhall would be the best back in his class. That was saying a lot considering he came out with guys like McFadden, Jon Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice and others. I’m not positive he’ll pan out as the best of that stellar bunch, but I still like his future….    Speaking of last year’s draft, it has been nothing short of amazing. The amount of gamebreaking players that are tearing up the league right now as sophomores is amazing, even in the fantasy realm. I count 20 guys that have been fantasy relevant this year, just in the first 4 rounds – that’s not normal…..  The 49ers dominated the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, proving once again that their “need” for Michael Crabtree isn’t as pressing as the former Texas Tech star expected. Stories have surfaced that Crabtree and his agent are ready to get back to the bargaining table. It’s about damn time. I’ve now dropped the kid in both the leagues I’ve owned him in, and I’m keeping him on the waiver wire, but if you’re looking for a chance to take, he’s a deep shot in the dark….     Eli Manning has been worth every single dollar the Giants paid him this off-season, and yes, that took a lot for me to say. He’s going to have to really bite the dust hard if he wants to have the “normal Eli year” and I don’t think it’s going to happen. But things like his little heel problem throw, are part of the reason why I’ll never like this guy. He dropped back, landed weird on his foot, lost his balance, regained it, only to try and throw and fall down in the process like someone shot him in the foot. And what happened? Dude’s heel is bruised. Please……    I predicted a huge year from Ronnie Brown, and so far he’s looking pretty good to me. The guy is a beast, his vision is perfect, his all around game is impressive, and his team will be relying heavily on him to win ball games. He’s averaging just over 90 yards per game and a touchdown per. But this might be the height of his fantasy stock for a while. The guy is legit, but he goes up against the Jets (twice), and the Saints, in the next three games. It gets easier after that, but I’m just saying, get ready for some tough sledding ahead….    The Raiders offense sucks! 6 points against the Texans, come on….   Now the Saints running attack had a pretty solid outing against one of the best run defenses in football this Sunday, Pierre Thomas is the real deal; but it’s that stellar defensive transformation that continues to amaze me. The Saints really know how to bring pressure, often fooling teams into mishaps that leave open rushers despite rushing fewer people than offensive blockers. If you can get pressure on 6 blockers with 4 and 5 rushers, often going unblocked, you’re going to win a lot of football games….     Now this is the David Garrard I know and love. His accuracy, mistake free football, and efficiency has been great over the last two games. His 5-1 TD to INT ratio is consistent with his ability, and I think he’ll continue to put up solid numbers all season long. He got Torry Holt in the off-season, and that was huge, but seeing Mike Sims-Walker become a go-to guy will do wonders for this whole team. It’s just nice to finally see Garrard not running for his life every snap, his O-line is getting better every week….    I’d like to congratulate Denver for their awesome start to the season. I warned a lot of people that the Broncos weren’t as bad as everyone thought, but not even I thought they’d be this solid. Defensively they have gotten very tough, and Kyle Orton might be starting to figure out the talent he has on the outside (though he still hasn’t discovered Eddie Royal). Knowshon Moreno is going to be a special player, and it’s beginning to look like this McDaniels guy knows what he’s doing afterall, huh? I’ve liked him from the start, and his 4-0 beginning, the way he went and gave Marshall a hug after that game winning catch and run, and his overall passion and respect for the game is encouraging. Not only is his future bright, but I expect it to be long as well.

Fantasy Focus: Week 4

Sorry for the late start on Week 4’s Fantasy Focus – lets just say I was under the weather for I’m sure you don’t have as much interest in hearing about my  2 day battle as I have sharing it. Us writers, what can you say, we like to describe things. All in all, it’s been a tough week, but better ones will come, and at least Sunday is just around the corner. Last week, for the 3rd straight, I pulled off the top spot in the fantasy picks ranking system. This week, Red Red Ryan, Josh Arsenault, and Papa Weimer will once again try to do their best to dethrone the fantasy king. Rankings below, my 20 guys to watch at the top. Enjoy!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Phillip Rivers – The Steelers kill the run and can’t stop the pass. Phillip can toss the ball around. I like it.
2. Adrian Peterson – I think the Packers are a great match-up for AP, they’ll score, he’ll score… a lot.
3. Brandon Jacobs – With Bradshaw spending time in a boot, and the Chiefs up next, Jacobs will be huge.
4. Tom Brady – The Ravens D struggles against prolific passers, I’m still one that thinks Tom can do it.
5. Reggie Wayne – I think Reggie is the surest thing WR this week in fantasy, not as much upside as Moss, but definite.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Julius Jones– I think the Hawks keep it close, how? by running the ball a lot with Julius.
2. Devin Hester – He’s the #1 receiver against the worst pass defense in the league, should be good this week.
3. Darren McFadden– Houston is just one of those defenses, McFadden’s talent and homerun ability is there.
4. Carson Palmer – Against Cleveland, I like his chances. He’s getting better every week.
5. Hines Ward –Steelers should find plenty of passing room against the Chargers this weekend.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Tashard Choice – Even as Barber’s back up, which I think he will be, the Cowboys can run on anyone – he should be good.
2. Mike Sims-Walker – Should be owned in every single league, but isn’t owned in half, great option against Tennessee.
3. Mario Manningham –He’ll have a couple chances this week, here’s thinking he makes the most of them against KC.
4. Rashard Mendenhall– If you are looking deep, Mendenhall could be there, Willie might not play, SD has no run D…
5. Eddie Royal – Got dropped in a lot of leagues this week, bet he makes those people even more upset with a big day.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Matt Cassel – This one seems easy, but not right now, and not against the Giants D – stay away from Cassel.
2. Steven Jackson – If in a PPR, not too shabby cuz he catches balls, but running room will be limited by 49ers.
3. Nate Burleson – A lot of people like Nate this week, against the Colts I do not. A few catches, less than 50 yards.
4. Bernard Berrien or Percy Harvin –If I had to choose, would start Percy over BB, but both can be sat against GB’s CBs.
5. Reggie Bush – I think the Jets are too fast in the linebacking and secondary for a less than 100% Bush.

PS – Bye weeks are back, and here for some time, recognize! Mind the gap!

Week 4 Fantasy Rankings

Ryan Kauffman	        Josh Arsenault		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning   	1.Peyton Manning	1.Peyton Manning	1.Phillip Rivers
2.Ben Roethlisberger	2.Carson Palmer 	2.Tom Brady     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Jason Campbell 	3.Jay Cutler     	3.Jay Cutler     	3.Tom Brady
4.Jay Cutler     	4.Tom Brady     	4.David Garrard 	4.Peyton Manning
5.Eli Manning   	5.Aaron Rodgers   	5.Aaron Rodgers		5.Drew Brees
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Cedric Benson 	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson
2.Chris Johnson 	2.Adrian Peterson 	2.Steve Slaton  	2.Brandon Jacobs
3.Brandon Jacobs	3.Chris Johnson  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.Chris Johnson
4.Maurice Jones-Drew	4.Brandon Jacobs    	4.Fred Jackson  	4.Matt Forte
5.Cedric Benson 	5.Glen Coffee   	5.Clinton Portis  	5.Julius Jones

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Reggie Wayne	        1.Reggie Wayne          1.Steve Smith (NY) 	1.Reggie Wayne
2.Santonio Holmes	2.Calvin Johnson   	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Randy Moss
3.Terrell Owens  	3.Jericho Cotchery	3.Randy Moss    	3.Chad Ochocinco
4.Johnny Knox    	4.Nate Burleson 	4.Andre Johnson 	4.Vincent Jackson
5.Mike Sims-Walker  	5.Braylon Edwards	5.Devin Hester  	5.Terrell Owens

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Jason Witten  	1.Jason Witten  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Antonio Gates
2.Owen Daniels		2.Chris Cooley		2.Dustin Keller 	2.Chris Cooley
3.Dallas Clark		3.Owen Daniels		3.Vernon Davis  	3.Jason Witten
4.Chris Cooley   	4.Dustin Keller  	4.Chris Cooley		4.Dallas Clark
5.John Carlson   	5.Dallas Clark   	5.Jason Witten		5.Greg Olsen

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.49ers 		1.Giants		1.Bears 		1.Giants
2.Redskins		2.Vikings       	2.Steelers		2.Bengals
3.Bears 		3.Cowboys		3.Titans		3.Bears
4.Giants		4.Titans  		4.Texans		4.49ers
5.Bengals		5.49ers 		5.Giants		5.Redskins

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Papa Weimer says, "I'll take Reggie Roby every time!" As for the rest of us, we won't even go
that far, we don't rank no stinking kickers man! (But we are all rooting for Michael Koenen to
get in for a 63 yard game winner)

Fantasy Football Focus: Week 3 NFL Review

Week 3 fantasy wasn’t quite as bad for me as my picks went. I wasn’t completely on top of my game, but I did finish on top of the rest of the guys in the group. If you can’t beat everyone, you might as well make sure to beat your friends. We all had some good picks and some misses as well. Here’s how the week went.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – 123 yards, three touchdowns, top running back, you bet. A+
2. Andre Johnson – 4 catches for 85 yards, well, after his 4th catch he got hurt, played but didn’t record another catch. C
3. Drew Brees – I said he had to come back down to earth, but said it wouldn’t be this week. I was right but wrong. F
4. Matt Schaub – #4 quarterback, finding himself high on the charts for the second week in a row. A
5. Brandon Jacobs – #13 running back, 92 yards and a touchdown, I expected more from Brandon than 15 points. C

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Ray Rice– #9 running back overall, not bad when your teammate was tied with you. B
2. Ryan Grant – 99 yards for Ryan on 26 carries, I expected more and at least 1 TD. The Pack hates giving him TDs. C-
3. Larry Johnson– And Larry Johnson might never be a high play for me ever again. 38 yards for Larry. F
4. Dwayne Bowe – Not really fair because he was a last second scratch after no info about that all week. F
5. Braylon Edwards – 3 catches for 35 yards, Braylon must hate his QB situation with a passion. I know I do. F

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mario Manningham – 4 grabs for 55 yards, just a score away from a big week. I still like Mario. C-
2. David Garrard – A 16th rated QB this week, Garrard’s numbers were just fine. B-
3. Trent Edwards –Trent couldn’t do diddly against the Saints secondary, missing a lot of open plays. F
4.Fred Jackson– His team couldn’t do anything offensively, but Fred still carried the ball 18 times for 71 yards while grabbing 4 passes for 26 yards. Not a bad day for Fred, who has been good through three. B-
5. Jabar Gaffney – 4 grabs for 39 yards, ugh, lots of better sleepers I could have picked; Reed, Jacoby, and Wallace… D+

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai – 13 carries for 63 yards was better than I thought, plus he caught a short TD. Miss. F
2. Cedric Benson – 17 carries for 76 yards and  TD, better than I expected from Cedric. D-
3. Willie Parker – 20 fantasy points for Willie Parker, a very good week for the Steeler RB. F
4. Bernard Berrien – 4 catches for 56 yards, a little higher than I expected, but not starter worthy. B
5. Chris Johnson – 22 carries for 97 yards, not bad, but just 10 fantasy points, right what I expected. Ranked 31st RB. B+

PS – Don’t trust Eagles injury reports….

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault	        Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees 28   	1.Drew Brees 28		1.Peyton Manning 1	1.Drew Brees 28
2.Tom Brady 13    	2.Aaron Rodgers 3	2.Tom Brady 13    	2.Matt Schaub 4
3.Phillip Rivers 17	3.Matt Schaub 4    	3.Drew Brees 28   	3.Peyton Manning 1
4.Aaron Rodgers 3  	4.Peyton Manning 1	4.David Garrard 16	4.Tony Romo 23
5.Carson Palmer 19 	5.Trent Edwards 27	5.Aaron Rodgers	3	5.Tom Brady 13
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Michael Turner 32	1.Maurice Jones-Drew 1	1.Adrian Peterson 28	1.Maurice Jones-Drew 1
2.Maurice Jones-Drew 1	2.Brandon Jacobs 13	2.Steve Slaton 24 	2.Brandon Jacobs 13
3.Adrian Peterson 28	3.Ronnie Brown 18  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew 1	3.Adrian Peterson 28
4.Matt Forte 9		4.Matt Forte 9   	4.Fred Jackson 23 	4.Matt Forte 9
5.Clinton Portis 47	5.Steven Jackson 6	5.Clinton Portis 47 	5.Ryan Grant 29

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Randy Moss 8		1.Andre Johnson 27   	1.Larry Fitzgerald 24	1.Andre Johnson 27
2.Larry Fitzgerald 24	2.Reggie Wayne 3  	2.Reggie Wayne 3	2.Randy Moss 8
3.Reggie Wayne 3   	3.Randy Moss 8		3.Steve Smith (NY) 12   3.Reggie Wayne 3
4.Andre Johnson 27	4.Greg Jennings	27	4.Andre Johnson 27 	4.Steve Smith (C) 55
5.Steve Smith (C) 55  	5.Santonio Holmes 93	5.Calvin Johnson 42	5.Jericho Cotchery 4

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Chris Cooley 17 	1.Jeremy Shockey 11	1.Dallas Clark 3 	1.Antonio Gates 10
2.Tony Gonzalez	33	2.Tony Gonzalez	33	2.John Carlson 19 	2.Dallas Clark 3
3.John Carlson 19	3.Dustin Keller 22	3.Tony Gonzalez 33	3.Jason Witten 5
4.Antonio Gates 10	4.Dallas Clark 3 	4.Owen Daniels 7	4.Chris Cooley 17
5.Jason Witten 5  	5.Owen Daniels 7   	5.Jason Witten 5	5.Tony Gonzalez 33

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens 2		1.Ravens 2		1.Bears 13		1.Ravens 2
2.Redskins 17		2.Broncos 3       	2.Steelers 25		2.Packers 10
3.Packers 10		3.Giants 7		3.Eagles 8		3.Broncos 3
4.Broncos 3		4.Bears 13		4.Packers 10		4.Redskins 17
5.Vikings 16		5.Redskins 17		5.Redskins 17		5.Eagles 8

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 5 Kickers for Week 3: Olindo Mare, Stephen Gostkowski, Mason Crosby, Ryan Longwell,
Matt Prater
Keeping score for week 3! This is the positional breakdown based on Week 3's rankings:
Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

1.QBs 4         	1.QBs 2		        1.QBs 1  		1.QBs 3
2.RBs 3		        2.RBs 1	   	        2.RBs 4                 2.RBs 2
3.WRs 3		        3.WRs 4		        3.WRs 2         	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 4  		4.TEs 3          	4.TEs 1         	4.TEs 2
5.DST 3         	5.DST 2         	5.DST 4         	5.DST 1

Well, Josh came in last for this week’s rankings. Papa and Kauffman came in tied for second (as they like to say) or tied for 3rd (as I like to say). The winner, for the 3rd straight week is me. I’m telling you, I had a tough week in picks, and my fantasy predictions didn’t end up being too great as far as sleepers, elite guys, starters, and sits, but as always it’s nice to beat your friends at stuff. I’ll go for 4 straight weeks as the top fantasy genius in Week 4. As for this week, we got a few things right. Our number one ranked RB, between the four of us, was Maurice Jones Drew – he came through in fine fashion. Three of us had Peyton ranked in the Top 5, and he was the top QB this week. Reggie Wayne was our top rated receiver, and he was ranked 3rd overall this week. Kauffman swung and really missed on Santonio Holmes, as the man crush comes back to haunt him again. As the 93rd rated receiver this week, he pretty much had no chance at anything but 4th in receivers. Drew Brees let everyone down, as only Papa Weimer didn’t rank him 1st for Week 3. Sticking Jericho Cotchery in my top five made up for keeping Steve Smith there, and despite Steve’s low output I still snuck away with the top receiver spot this week. Who’d we miss? Lets go backwards, the Dallas Cowboys were the #1 ranked defense for the week, they didn’t make any top 5 list. New Orleans, San Diego, and Indy rounded out 4, 5 and 6 this week, not a one made our lists. Vernon Davis was the beast that everyone thought he’d be when he first came out of Maryland, taking the top TE spot for Week 3 while Brent Celek finished a close second in helping the Eagles win big. A cat named Daniel Fells caught a couple touchdowns for the Rams, making the most of his two grabs – he finished 4th. And Greg Olsen was 6th overall, finally showing what many expected. Either it was crazy that nobody listed Santana Moss in their top 5 lists, because he ended up with 7 more points than any other receiver in the league, or his huge performance was a stunner. I’ll go for stunner. DeSean Jackson wasn’t supposed to suit up, or so the Eagles made fantasy owners believe all week long, only to finish 2nd overall in fantasy points while also performing a front flip splits move celebration in the end zone… I think his groin is fine. Jerks. Kevin Walter had a big week and Derrick Mason had his first lofty performance of the season. Andre Caldwell burst onto the scene to finish in the Top 10, one wonders what to expect of him going forward? As for running backs? How about lots of misses, we only picked one out of the Top 5, as Pierre Thomas, Tashard Choice, Julius Jones, and Willie Parker rounded out the Top 5. Who knew? Fred Taylor and Ricky Williams also made Top 10 performances of the week, bringing us back to the year 2000. As for QBs, Kevin Kolb was huge again for the Eagles, and maybe they knew what they were doing drafting the gun slinger a couple years ago, huh? Also in the top 10 and off of our lists, how about Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Brett Favre, Big Ben, Mark Sanchez, and a little guy name Kyle freaking Boller. How about that one? Check back later to see our picks for Week 4, and wait and see if somebody can’t dethrone me as the token fantasy genius!

Fantasy Football Picks: Ten for Wednesday

Chad Pennington is out for the season and in comes the youngster Chad Henne to show everyone he’s better than he played in relief last week. Henne has a better arm and can throw the deep ball better than Chad, but will he play mistake free enough to keep the starting gig? Tyler Thigpen was sent to Miami to be Henne’s back-up, and I truly think that was the Dolphins’ intentions. I think Henne keeps the job and ends up helping out a guy like Ted Ginn Jr….   Darren McFadden fumbled the ball three times, doesn’t see the hole that well, and has 11 guys focused on trying to tackle him as soon as he gets the ball. I’m not saying dump McFadden, in fact, I think you could get the guy for next to nothing and he’s worth the risk, but I don’t think I’d start him unless you are desperate or he does some actual damage (though this week he has a pretty decent match-up if you want to gamble)….   Speaking of JaMarcus Russell, can a guy be any less confident throwing a football than he is? He can’t even seem to connect with Zach Miller anymore. After ending the season on a very high note, winning a couple games, completing a respectable percentage, and throwing 6-2 TD to INT, many thought Russell would take the next step. If the next step was all rotten and dropped off into a hot lava pit, that was right on the button…..    Eli Manning has been very good. That’s hard for me to write down, but what more can I say? I thought teams would be able to stack up against the run, but you just can’t do that to Eli anymore. His receivers are better than anyone thought, and maybe he’s worth all that money the Giants invested into him after all. That makes me sick to my stomach, or maybe that’s just the burgers……    Jake Delhomme may be just about done, but I have to blame the play calling for the Panthers’ complete demise. DeAngelo Williams had 11 carries for the love of god. 11. And the Panthers were on top and or tied for quite some time. Not only did he not get the ball enough, but in 11 carries he totaled over 60 yards. That looks good to me. Seems like if you did a lot more of handing him the ball you’d win a game or two…..    Aaron Rodgers has not looked good through the first three games. He still has decent fantasy numbers, but for the majority of game time he’s been overthrowing receivers, picking the wrong guy, and just flat out looking rusty. He’ll be fine, don’t worry, but how often does this kind of thing happen? A guy walks through the pre-season completing every pass he throws only to struggle out of the gates. It’s weird…..    Game smarts: where have you gone? Seneca Wallace, special teams players, NFL coaches – I feel like the first three games have been an interview for new reality show titled “Dumb is the new Fun”. How can quarterbacks run out of bounds 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage when all you have to do is throw the ball into the freaking stands? How can a kick return guy run out of bounds only to sprint in front of his teammates on a rolling punt and be the first to touch it? How can Jim Mora call a 2 yard out to Julius Jones on 4th and 3 with 29 seconds to go? How can Chad Pennington run a QB sneak for a first down on 3rd and 1 with a minute left in the game when he needs a touchdown to score? These first few weeks have been crazy, but somebody needs to teach these guys some rules. Good lord!…..   Matt Forte, ugh. 21 carries for 66 yards, against the Hawks? At least Jay Cutler checked it down to him a couple times, but this was supposed to be the game that Forte stepped up his production. Needless to say, that wasn’t really the case…..   LenDale White might not be getting enough carries to be fantasy worthy, but Chris Johnson won’t hold up with 25 touches a game all season. As much as I love Chris’s game, White is going to get an opportunity, and he’s going to run with it. He’s run well despite limited looks. Keep your eye on the big guy…..  How does Tampa bench Byron Leftwich? I know they are struggling and 0-3 and young and maybe want to see what one of their young guys can do, but Byron was only good through the first two weeks. The Giants were in his face every snap last Sunday, but Byron’s numbers were goo prior to that. I don’t think Josh Johnson will be as good as Lefty, and Josh Freeman is not ready either. Interesting move, not a good sign if you own Kellen Winslow, Antonio Bryant, or even a running back. Not good if you own Byron either.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

Welcome back for my next installment of Thing 1 and Thing 2. If you followed my advice last week you got comparable (and in some cases better) production from your lesser-owned fantasy players. The lone exception was due to Kellen Winslow’s breakout game and Robert Royal’s disappearing act. You can’t win them all I guess but four out of five ain’t bad. As the weeks go on it will get tougher and tougher to uncover those hidden gems so staying active on your league’s waiver wire early can really pay off as the season wears on. Who should you be paying attention to as week 3 approaches? … Let’s get after it.

Thing 1: A much-hyped rookie coming out of college, this kid has loads of talent but hasn’t looked ready for the NFL early in his career.  He is currently the sexier pick in a RBBC offensive scheme but his production has yet to match his 95% ownership in ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A career backup that has had some injury troubles but has always done the most with the chances that have been given to him.  He is currently being overlooked as a fantasy contributor but his production on the field warrants much more consideration than his 38% ownership suggests.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Knowshon Moreno and Thing 2 is Correll Buckhalter.  The running back situation in Denver will likely be fluid all season long, but don’t miss out on the cheap production you can get from a guy like Buckhalter, especially early in the season.  Moreno will finish the season with more touches, but I think Buckhalter will score more TDs for the Broncos due to his big play ability and slightly larger build.

Thing 1: This QBs upside is marginal but he does have a talented group of wide receivers and young, imaginative offensive mind calling the shots.  That said, his decision-making has always been a huge question mark and I am amazed that he is currently owned in 78% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This QB came into the season undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues but is steadily making strides toward fantasy consideration.  He does turn the ball over more than he should but early in the season his yardage and TDs are more than making up for it.  He is currently owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kyle Orton and Thing 2 is Byron Leftwich.  Orton is the prototypical “game manager” and has the potential to post more consistent stat-lines than Leftwich, but the upside of the sluggish-armed Tampa QB is intriguing.  He has shown a good rapport with TE Kellen Winslow early in the year and a defense on the decline could have him playing a lot of catchup.  Ask Jay Cutler how that worked out for his fantasy stats last year.

Thing 1: This WR is an extremely gifted route-runner and has some of surest hands in the NFL.  Due to some off-season changes to his supporting cast, his early-season production has taken a major hit.  I still like the kid a lot, and he is becoming a good buy-low candidate, but he is currently owned in 90% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This young WR has blazing speed and his big-play potential has caused his team to try and find more opportunities to get the ball in his hands.  A big jump in his ownership percentage this past week means owners are starting to take notice so this may be your last chance to go get him.  He is currently owned in 20% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Eddie Royal and Thing 2 is Johnny Knox.  Royal’s loss this past off-season has been Knox’s gain in the form of Jay Cutler.  A strong-armed QB with decent accuracy, Cutler is able to fit the ball into tight spots for Knox to work those shallow crosses and sideline routes that made Royal a household name last year.  As their chemistry grows expect to see more of the speed merchant from Abilene Christian.

Thing 1: This physical WR uses his body extremely well to make tough catches in traffic.  He has a rookie signal-caller tossing him the rock and over the first two weeks of the season they have shown decent chemistry.  He has yet to get into the end zone, but this productive wideout is currently owned in 96% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This second-year WR won a preseason battle for the #2 role on his team.  Although his play was inconsistent in his rookie season, he has shown flashes of big-play potential and has developed into a good route-runner.  He won’t produce as a fantasy starter every week, but there is value here and he is owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jerricho Cotchery and Thing 2 is Chansi Stuckey.  I like what I have seen from Stuckey and his rookie QB thus far.  Mark Sanchez’s lightning-quick feet and superb vision mean he will be able to keep plays alive longer than his aging predecessor, allowing his receivers to work toward open space.  I think Stuckey has big-time sleeper potential in an offense that looks to be much more balanced than anyone thought heading into the season.

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 3

Week 3 fantasy football is upon us, and here we are, dancing around some tough plays this coming weekend. The match-ups are in, the staff has been polled, and we have all the predicted rankings heading into Week 3. I’ve taken the top spot (Lucky Lester) each of the first two weeks, but it’s close, and I know I have some guys out to take my crown. Once again, I’ve listed my 4 levels of plays, elites, solids, sleepers, and no-nos, I hope they help. Josh, Papa, Red Red Ryan, and I have our rankings further down the page. I hope you enjoy it all!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – I don’t think the Texans can stop MJD, ala Chris Johnson last week.
2. Andre Johnson – That being said, I’m not so sure the Jaguars can stop the Texans either, I’ll take AJ.
3. Drew Brees – He has to come back to earth one of these days, dude can’t throw 72 touchdowns. Not this week.
4. Matt Schaub – Two weeks in a row at the top? You bet.
5. Brandon Jacobs – It’s been a slow start for the beast, enter the Buccaneers as unlucky opponent in Week 3.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Ray Rice– I think Ray will be the top scoring back on the Ravens team this week against Cleveland.
2. Ryan Grant – The Packers haven’t been dedicated to the run this year, I think that changes this week.
3. Larry Johnson– Questions surrounding Larry, I think he has a nice game this week.
4. Dwayne Bowe – Big nasty receiver going against the Eagles, and I think KC will be down – I like this pick.
5. Braylon Edwards – Drop a couple, catch a couple, he’ll have plenty of opportunities down early.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mario Manningham – Yeah, I like what I saw, me and every other guy.
2. David Garrard – I’d take him a lot of weeks, should be real good against Houston.
3. Trent Edwards –Both teams should have lots of snaps and score lots of points. Even in a loss I like Trent.
4.Fred Jackson– If he’s a beast one more week, does he keep the starting job when Lynch comes back?
5. Jabar Gaffney – The Raiders will take away the top guys, but Gaffney should find room. Good sleeper pick.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai – The Cardinals are very tough against the run, shutting down two studs in Gore and MJD.
2. Cedric Benson – His style versus the Steelers is not a good match-up for his fantasy owners.
3. Willie Parker – I don’t know if Willie will have too many more big games, the Bengals are tough on the run.
4. Bernard Berrien – Is he even the #1 receiver anymore, either way, Nate Clements should shut him down.
5. Chris Johnson – Can you sit this guy? Probably not, but if you have other options I’d suggest it.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault	        Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Peyton Manning	1.Drew Brees
2.Tom Brady     	2.Aaron Rodgers 	2.Tom Brady     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Phillip Rivers 	3.Matt Schaub     	3.Drew Brees     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Aaron Rodgers   	4.Peyton Manning	4.David Garrard 	4.Tony Romo
5.Carson Palmer  	5.Trent Edwards 	5.Aaron Rodgers		5.Tom Brady
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Michael Turner	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew
2.Maurice Jones-Drew	2.Brandon Jacobs	2.Steve Slaton  	2.Brandon Jacobs
3.Adrian Peterson	3.Ronnie Brown  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte		4.Matt Forte    	4.Fred Jackson  	4.Matt Forte
5.Clinton Portis	5.Steven Jackson	5.Clinton Portis  	5.Ryan Grant

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Randy Moss		1.Andre Johnson   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Andre Johnson
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne  	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Randy Moss
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith (NYG)    	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Greg Jennings		4.Andre Johnson 	4.Steve Smith (CAR)
5.Steve Smith (CAR)  	5.Santonio Holmes	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Jericho Cotchery

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Chris Cooley  	1.Jeremy Shockey	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Antonio Gates
2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.John Carlson  	2.Dallas Clark
3.John Carlson		3.Dustin Keller		3.Tony Gonzalez 	3.Jason Witten
4.Antonio Gates 	4.Dallas Clark  	4.Owen Daniels		4.Chris Cooley
5.Jason Witten   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Tony Gonzalez

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Bears 		1.Ravens
2.Redskins		2.Broncos       	2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Packers		3.Giants		3.Eagles		3.Broncos
4.Broncos		4.Bears  		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Vikings		5.Redskins		5.Redskins		5.Eagles

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

Week 2 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

Week 1 is in the books and what a strange week it was. Sure a handful of the usual suspects lit up the scoreboard (thank you, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and Reggie Wayne), but just as many fantasy giants stumbled out of the gates – much to the chagrin of their owners (curse you, Jay Cutler, Michael Turner and Andre Johnson).  If your team didn’t quite live up to expectations on opening weekend now is certainly not the time for panic.  A few simple tweaks via trade or your league’s waiver system may be all your club needs to compete not just in week 2 but for the long run as well.  In the short-term, players like Saints running back Mike Bell or Oakland wide receiver Louis Murphy can give your squad a welcome boost in production if you are lacking at those positions.  Both Bell and Murphy are owned in less than 15% of standard ESPN leagues and I expect them to continue to contribute even when the injured Pierre Thomas and Chaz Schilens return to action.  With that in mind, here are some other players to consider that are most likely floating around your league’s free agent pool.

Thing 1: This QB relies on accuracy and decision-making to accumulate fantasy numbers.  He is young, but a strong supporting cast of playmakers takes some of the pressure of him on a weekly basis.  In week 1 he went 22-36 for 229 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  Currently this signal-caller is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This QB depends on accuracy as well and with improved pass-catchers around him he will no longer be called upon to do too much with too little.  A very intelligent player (Stanford alum), he kicked off his season going 15-25 for 212 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  He is currently owned in 52% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is Trent Edwards.  I know Edwards isn’t the sexiest option at QB but I believe in the Buffalo starter just entering his second full season.  His accuracy is excellent and he has the arm strength to make all the throws.  With TO in town to relieve some of the pressure from Lee Evans and a very good receiving backfield duo in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, I think Edwards takes a big step forward this season.

Thing 1: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He had a decent week 1 rushing for 60 yards on 12 carries (5.0 ypc) and snagging three passes for 11 yards, though he failed to get into the end zone.  He is currently owned in 97% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He also had a solid showing in week 1 gaining 55 yards on 12 carries (4.6 ypc) including a touchdown.  In addition, he caught one pass for four yards.  Currently, this back is owned in 13% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ahmad Bradshaw and Thing 2 is Michael Bush.  As any LL reader knows, I love Bradshaw but this is more a testament to Bush’s role with the Raiders (and his considerable upside in the event of a trade or injury).  I like for him to get the bulk of the carries in the red zone and score 8-10 TDs this season.

Thing 1: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and hauled in 8 passes for 103 yards but did not record a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team but this player can be counted on for production and is currently owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and caught 7 passes for 78 yards and a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team as well but this player is a reliable target with the trust of his QB and is currently owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Hines Ward and Thing 2 is Justin Gage.  Like Ward, Gage is a gutsy wideout that will make the tough catch and keep the chains moving.  If he is still available in your league don’t pass up the chance at 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs (see also: Burleson, Nate – 23% ownership).

Thing 1: This TE moved to a new team and didn’t do much in the preseason.  Questions about the QB position have created some uncertainty about his expected production.  He made a decent showing in week 1 catching 5 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown and is currently owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This TE also changed locations in the off-season and had a quiet preseason before emerging as the leading option in week 1 with 4 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown.  With a young QB that will likely rely on this safety valve, this player makes an intriguing option and is owned in 0% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kellen Winslow and Thing 2 is Robert Royal.  No, that is not a typo for Royal’s ownership percentage but I don’t anticipate that number staying as low as it is.  Brady Quinn has shown a strong rapport with his TEs throughout his young career and the spot vacated by Winslow in the off-season may be Royal’s ticket to fantasy relevance.  He is not a TE1 at this point but he is worth a stash (especially in keeper leagues).

Thing 1: A big-name D/ST, this unit’s best days are probably behind them.  Injuries as well as a few off-season departures have robbed this group of a bit of their swagger and big-play ability.  During week one, they faced a poor offense and allowed 24 points without forcing a single turnover and are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A fly-under-the-radar D/ST, this group is an attacking bunch that will give up some big games but will also get after the QB, resulting in sacks and turnovers (fantasy gold).  In week 1 this unit shut down a decent offense to the tune of 7 points while generating 4 turnovers and 4 sacks.  They are currently owned in 4% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Ravens D/ST and Thing 2 is the Falcons D/ST.  I like this group a lot with the understanding that they are best when matched up against running teams with average passing games.  Elite QBs will be able to pick apart their secondary, but the Falcons generate one of the best pass-rushes in the game.  Be sure to grab them to take advantage of a juicy match-up coming up this week against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers.

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football

Hello all! Last week was the first run episode of Fantasy Focus, and the guys did alright. I took home the trophy, having the highest ranking picks for the week while Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, and Papa Weimer did pretty good work listing their Top 5 at each position. Josh and Ryan looked like they got together to do this in NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football, having very similar Top 5 lists, but I assure you they live quite far away from each other, and have much different hair colors. Like last week’s article, I also have 3 levels of nice plays for the week, and going along with those 15 upside picks, I also have five guys I wouldn’t want to see in my starting lineup this week. Hopefully I can keep up the good work! Hope you enjoy!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Michael Turner – Mike will get a lot of carries, and this week he’ll double last week’s yardage output.
2. Tom Brady – I know the Jets looked nice last week against Schaub and company, but Tom is a different beast.
3. Marques Colston – I think Marques has a big week against some DBs that struggle against big, tall receivers.
4. Steve Smith – Steve was targeted 13 times last week, I’d say he gets the same, but does a lot more with those looks.
5. Brian Westbrook – This is less risky than last week, Westy will be leaned on, especially if Donovan is out.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I still believe in Eddie, despite last week’s low numbers. Good match-up against Cleveland.
2. Ronnie Brown – A disappointing Week 1 has him falling down the charts, but I’d take Ronnie against Indy.
3. Joe Flacco– Flacco will see yet another defense looking to stop his runners, that should once again open up his air attack.
4. Joseph Addai – Addai had a decent showing last week, but he’ll be a Top 10 back this week.
5. Leon Washington – I think Leon gets more action this week against the Patriots, I don’t think the Pats match up with him well.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Michael Bush – Bush looked really good against San Diego, the Raiders will run the ball a lot against KC.
2. David Garrard – I like Garrard to be more accurate this week, finishing in the Top 15 amongst QBs.
3. LenDale White – Ignored as a starter, White will get a handful of goal line carries this week, and should cash in.
4. Mike Bell– Even as Pierre comes back, Mike is the power back Coach Dumb wanted, he’ll get enough carries against Detroit.
5. Nate Burleson – One more week as a sleeper for Nate, he’s still owned in not enough leagues.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Jay Cutler – Another tough one for Chicago’s new franchise QB, the Steelers are tough on any QB.
2. Reggie Bush – The Saints will run a lot against the Eagles, and Bush is the 3rd best runner in that backfield.
3. Steven Jackson – Big Al makes life tough on choppy footed running backs. Sit on SteJack.
4. Julius Jones – Usually a softer defense, I think the 49ers will be tough against the run this year, JJ doesn’ t catch many passes.
5. Patrick Crayton – After a big Week 1, Patrick got picked up in many leagues, I would leave him out against the G-men.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Peyton Manning	2.Peyton Manning	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner
3.Aaron Rodgers		3.Tom Brady     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Kurt Warner   	4.Kurt Warner		4.Matt Hasselbeck	4.Joe Flacco
5.Matt Schaub   	5.Aaron Rodgers 	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Drew Brees
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner
2.Maurice Jones Drew	2.Chris Johnson 	2.Michael Turner	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Brian Westbrook	3.Maurice Jones Drew	3.Darren McFadden	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Ronnie Brown		4.Clinton Portis	4.Maurice Jones Drew	4.Frank Gore
5.Clinton Portis	5.Brian Westbrook	5.Thomas Jones  	5.Chris Johnson

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Greg Jennings		1.Reggie Wayne   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Randy Moss
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith    	3.Marques Colston
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Roddy White		4.Jericho Cotchery	4.Andre Johnson
5.Steve Smith   	5.Greg Jennings		5.Calvin Johnson	5.Steve Smith

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Jason Witten  	1.Jason Witten		1.Tony Gonzalez 	1.Dallas Clark
2.Chris Cooley		2.Dallas Clark		2.John Carlson  	2.Jason Witten
3.Tony Gonzalez		3.John Carlson		3.Dallas Clark  	3.Zach Miller
4.Jeremy Shockey	4.Tony Gonzalez		4.Owen Daniels		4.Kellen Winslow
5.Zach Miller   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Chris Cooley

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Steelers		1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Steelers
2.Ravens		2.Steelers		2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Vikings		3.Redskins		3.Ravens		3.Falcons
4.Seahawks		4.Patriots		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Falcons		5.Packers		5.Cowboys		5.Vikings

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.