New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It’s almost poetic. New England heads to plain old regular England as the “road team” against one of the worst teams in football, Tampa Bay. Wimbley stadium has proven to be a tough place to keep your footing, as it gets chewed up by the weather. But tough field conditions can only be a help for New England. After the Patriots laid a proper onslaught of touchdowns on the Titans last week, and shut out Tennessee 59-0 (in the snow), of course they are going to be big favorites overseas. But it’s justified. The Patriots have played a lot better defensively that I expected this season, and that’s not good news for Josh Johnson and company. I don’t think it’s fair that New England gets to play in a sort-of funky situation, long plane ride, probably a shorter week of practice, because Coach Belichick and company do such a good job of getting their team ready for every situation. Rookie coach, Raheem Morris will certainly have his hands full this week, slowing what looks to be a revitalized Patriots offensive attack. 14.5 is a lot of points, and I wouldn’t bet too much on the game, but if I had to lean one way or another, I’d lean on Tom Brady.
Tag Archives: Football Picks
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers Free Week 7 Picks
Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: I like how the world is waiting on Trent Edwards to see if they’re going to bet on the Bills, or even more, the books are waiting to post lines until that information comes out. Here’s a piece of advice for you, if you like the Bills, like I do here, wait until the news comes out that Trent will not be playing Sunday. If and when that happens, you’re likely to see this line jump up a little in Buffalo’s favor, and +7.5 is just that much sweeter than +7. That being said, I don’t see what the Panthers have done to be a touchdown favorite against anybody in the NFL. Was it last week’s win over Tampa where they barely pulled it off? Or was it the week before that when Washington had Carolina on the ropes 17-2 midway through the 3rd quarter? Or could it be when Carolina got beaten in ever single other game they’ve played this year? Listen, Buffalo doesn’t stop the run really well, but they do play close football games. Despite their poor record, 2-4, they’ve been in every single game they’ve played late, besides when Miami dominated them. If Carolina has yet to win by more than a touchdown and Buffalo has played just about everyone tough, how can you call Carolina -7 value? It’s not, not at all. Anything can happen, but the Bills have proven to me that they can keep it close. Carolina can’t put up a bunch of points fast, Buffalo covers in Carolina.
Papas Picks for Week 6: Only Underdogs! Ravens, Buccaneers, Raiders
Papa’s Picks!
This is Papa Weimer, I usually leave making picks up to the intelligent youngster in the family, but this week I see a few underdogs that need to be mentioned. Now a couple of these are different from the wonder-kid, but I’m putting myself out on the line and saying even the guys who are always right give a wrong pick now and again. These are my Top 3 underdog pick:
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: I don’t know about you guys, but there’s something about AP getting shut down by the Packers and Rams that get me shying away from the old man and his gang of purple clad cronies. The Vikings are solid, no doubts about that, but Ryan Grant and Steven Jackson had pretty solid numbers over the last two games, and even though the Vikings have won pretty easily, I’m not ready to turn my shoulder on that. The Ravens run the ball twice as well as the Rams and Packers, so unless the Vikings are ready to turn it up at home this Sunday, and play a completely different game, I think they’re going to get an upleasant surprise. The AFC’s big dogs are tough, and the Ravens won’t walk gingerly into Minnesota. Lucky’s with me on this one, we both like us some Ravens this Sunday!
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): Lucky has given up on the Bucs, and that’s fair, but what’s to like about Carolina? At least there’s a group of guys playing hard in Tampa, not just Jake Delhome in Carolina. Yeah, that’s right, despite his troubles, Jake is playing hard for his team. But that’s about it. That offensive line isn’t blocking tough enough to get two good running backs going, and they sure as all hell aren’t protecting Jake. Tampa ditched their Gaines Adams project this week, and I think that gets people thinking in Tampa, they’re trimming fat now, and it’s time to step up. I think the Bucs get their first win, because sometime they’re going to have to, but even if they don’t a close game gets me a win anyway, that extra half point late makes me a happy bettor. Go Buccos!
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders (+14.5): Hey, if Vegas is willing to give me a group of NFL football players and 14.5 points, I’m in. The Raiders are bad, sure, but only a couple McNabb interceptions need to happen for the Raiders to cover this spread. Maybe Al Davis is crazy, I wouldn’t doubt it, anybody that has combed his hair as much as that clown probably needs to be checked. But Tom Cable has fight, and there’s only so much time before the Raiders come out and show some. I think that’s this week at home against the Eagles. I think Michael Bush becomes a huge part of the Raiders game plan this week, and while nobody has mentioned him as a fantasy sleeper this week, I think his big plays, and a touchdown or two give the Raiders just enough to put some blankets on this large spread.
Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings Football Pick
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: This is one of the biggest games of the week, two teams that have played extremely well to start the season. The Ravens come in 3-2 (after losing in the final seconds to the Bengals a week after losing to the Patriots in New England) while Minnesota has walked through a relatively weak schedule all the way to 5-0 (Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis hardly belong in the NFL). And yes, the Brett Favre experiment seems to be working just fine. The decent teams Minnesota has faced kept things close, as Brett Favre needed his miracle toss with a second left to beat the 49ers, and Green Bay’s late rally fell short despite shutting down Adrian Peterson and that feared Viking rushing attack. The Ravens haven’t been as stingy on defense, and Joe Flacco has struggled a bit in the last two contests, but you’d have to say Baltimore is easily the Vikings’ toughest task yet. With that being what it is, I’m taking the Ravens here. The 49ers and Ravens are very similar teams, the difference being Baltimore should be healthier than San Fran was in their game against the Vikings. The 49ers should have won that game, and Baltimore should win this game. We’ll see if Should turns into a win this time.
Free Super Bowl 41 Pick
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. CHICAGO BEARS
The Colts come into Miami as a touchdown favorite over the Bears. Indianapolis has finally exercised their playoff demons, conquering the Patriots on way to their first Super Bowl in the Peyton Manning era, while the Bears have reached the big show for the first time since their 1985 Super squad won the whole thing. A battle of Defense against Offense ensues when Brian Urlacher and the Bears take on Peyton Manning and his Colts.
An Argument for the Bears
Chicago comes to Miami saying all the right things. They also show up as a touchdown underdog, something that rarely works out for the heavily favored team. Chicago has proven throughout the playoffs and during the regular season, that they can win close games (27-24 over the Hawks in Round 2) and finish games they dominate (39-14 over the Saints in Round 3). Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson have steamrolled opposing defenses, rushing for a combined 294 yards and 5 touchdowns in two playoff games. And Rex Grossman, amongst much criticism, has done everything he has been asked to do, including the completions of some huge throws down the stretch to set his team up for victory. Underdogs often play with a confident, nothing to lose manor, giving them a slight edge when the going gets tough. Chicago has lost 3 games all season, and that’s only if you count a meaningless loss to the Packers in Week 17. The Bears score more points per game than the Colts. Ask anyone, the Bears defense is better than the Colts defense, no question about it. The Bears are 7-1 against the Colts all time, winning their last match-up with the Colts, 24-17 in 2005, when they held Peyton and the Colts to 30 rushing yards and 172 yards through the air, while forcing 6 fumbles. That game was in Indianapolis. The Colts finished the regular season 2-4 while the Bears finished the season off 4-2. The bottom line is, the Colts gave up huge rushing games all year long, while the Bears have dominated teams on the ground, while taking big chances off of play action through the air. Rex Grossman has dealt with the pressure of big games well, while it’s Peyton Manning that has looked like a frustrated young quarterback for much of post season play. The Colts don’t have a rushing attack that can force the Bears to respect the ground game, leaving plenty of defensive backs to give Manning trouble. If this game comes down to special teams, the Bears get the nod over the Colts, as Devin Hester is the most electrifying player on either team. With their will to win in tact, he Bears should win this game easily.
An Argument for the Colts
The Bears have proven over t the latter half of the season, including the playoffs, that they can’t stop the pass adequately; So how will Chicago limit a team that has Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison at the receiving positions, with Peyton Manning throwing the pig skin? Answer: They won’t. Manning finally found his passing touch with the game on the line against the Patriots. Peyton, who is often touted as the best passer in the game, finally finds himself in the Super Bowl, and he won’t fumble the snap in this one. With Dallas Clark stepping up in the playoffs, Manning has too many weapons for a Bears defense that has had trouble stopping quality passers all season long (as even Drew Brees tossed for over 350 yards against the Bears). The Colts dominated time of possession all season long, and hold that title over the Bears as well. Indy is 9-4-1 ATS recently, when playing on grass. While many people like to give the Bears the nod in special teams this week, they must be forgetting a certain kicker that was acquired before this season began. Adam Vinitieri anyone? Yes, he just happens to be the most clutch kicker in the game. I’m sure Devin is fast and shifty, but Adam has won a playoff game or two, not to mention a Super Bowl championship. Devin who? And I know Chicago has picked up yards all season long, but Indy is much better than the Bears in that category, and when they get to the red zone, unlike the Bears, the Colts score at an alarming rate. Many people will question the Colts defense coming in, but how can you do that with the way they’ve played in the playoffs, when defense matters most? Sure, the Colts gave up 157 rushing yards per game during the regular season, but this time of year is anything but regular, and the Colts, in turn, have stepped right up. In each of their playoff games, they didn’t give up 100 yards, holding Larry Johnson and the Chiefs to 42 yards on the ground, giving up only 83 yards to the smash mouth Raven rushing game, and only 93 yards to the two headed monster rushing attack of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney. Now that’s a run defense. And how can the Bears 13 win regular season convince anyone? As they only played 4 playoff teams the entire year. And it’s hard to believe the Bears can slow Manning, Reggie, Marvin, and Dallas when they gave up over 200 passing yards per game to the poor passing attacks in the NFC, not to mention 550 yards in two playoff games. Don’t let the hype of the Bears defense deceive you, the Colts have outplayed them defensively throughout the post season race to the Super Bowl. And that, my friends, should be the difference.
Lucky Lester’s Super Bowl Take – 1 Stat Says It All
Many believe quarterback play will decide this game, while others believe the team with the best running attack will take the rings home. Others claim the best defense will decide the Super Bowl, and some even go as far to say big plays on special teams will help crown a winner. However, if I had to pick one single stat that I all but guarantee to go to the winner of the game, I would choose Time of Possession. And that’s one of the main reasons I’m taking the Colts. Because, sure, the Bears have a wonderful defense. Great players, great speed, and strength up front. But Peyton Manning can thread a needle with the best of them, and his three main targets know how to get open. The Colts will run the ball plenty on Sunday, but their key to controlling the ball, and the clock, will rest on the accurate dump down passing of Mr. Manning. He knows how to get first downs, and he can hit a 7 yard stop pattern with the best of them, something that will hurt the Bears early and often. The longer Chicago’s defense sits in their stance waiting for Peyton to make a change, and snap the ball, the more they’ll struggle to stay rejuvenated. This struggle will tire the Bears defensive front, making the game come easier to Indy. While the Bears possess a healthy rushing attack, Rex’s inability to be consistent on easy throws will hurt the Bears attempts to control the clock, in turn, helping the Colts win the game. That’s my take, one stat line should decide it all, and my money’s on Peyton to get it
done!
The Bet
Take the Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) over the Chicago Bears, in Miami. This is one time that the great offence will trump the great defense, and finally we can stop hearing people talk about Peyton Manning not winning a Super Bowl. The line has fallen a bit, from 7 to 6.5, which makes the Colts that much more attractive to my betting senses. The Colts beat the Bears 35-24 as a late score puts the game out of reach in Miami.