Author Archives: Josh Arsenault

Week 4 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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There’s nothing worse than eating a handful of sunflower seeds when the last one you happen to crack open has a seed inside it that tastes so bitter your face crinkles up like Jon Gruden reacting to a costly penalty. You know that seed somehow got wedged in the sorter at some production plant in Des Moines, Iowa and waited there patiently until it wiggled itself free just in time to find it’s way into the bag destined for your purchase. A ticking timebomb of rotten filth, it disguised itself among similar-looking peers waiting for that one opportunity to spoil your snacking enjoyment at the last minute. If you know this feeling then you know exactly how I felt this past Sunday watching Byron Leftwich as he coughed up his hold on the Tampa Bay starting QB position mere days after I had touted him as a potential value play for the rest of the season.  Ugh.

On the plus side, Correll Buckhalter and Johnny Knox continued to contribute (100+ yards rushing for C-Buck and a TD grab for Knox) and I have faith that Chansi Stuckey will continue to offer value, though it may be a bit sporadic.  Unfortunately, two of those ships may have already set sail as Buckhalter’s ownership percentage jumped 30 points this week and Knox’s shot up 35 (most likely due to my devoted readers).  As we near the quarter poll of the young NFL season and bye weeks descend upon us, be sure to keep close tabs on your league’s comings and goings and be ready to pounce on PWPs (players with potential) as they get dropped by impatient owners looking for a quick fix.  I give you my week 4 version of Thing 1 and Thing 2 … because the only way to get that taste out of your mouth is with another handful of seeds.

Thing 1: This QB has completed 61.3% of his passes for 871 yards (290 ypg) and 3 TDs to go along with 2 INTs.  He currently is sporting a 79.9 QB rating and is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This QB has completed 67.6% of his passes for 793 yards (264 ypg) and 3 TDs to go along with 2 INTs.  He currently is sporting a 92.5 QB rating and is owned in 32% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Tom Brady and Thing 2 is Jason Campbell.  Obviously I am not claiming Jason Campbell is a better fantasy option than Tommy Terrific but he may get you more bang for your buck in a nice week 4 matchup with the staggering Buccaneers (Brady and the Pats play the Ravens).  For all his shortcomings as an NFL head coach, Jim Zorn is not an idiot.  He knows he needs to take the training wheels off Campbell if he wants to keep his job for the rest of the 2009 season and beyond.  That could translate into a very good QB2 in Campbell at a very affordable rate.

Thing 1: This RB has played in two of his team’s three games this season and in that time has accumulated 150 total yards on 29 touches (5.2 ypt) with no TDs.  He is currently owned in 83% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This RB has played in two of his team’s three games this season and in that time has accumulated 117 total yards on 28 touches (4.2 ypt) with no TDs.  He is currently owned in 2% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jamal Lewis and Thing 2 is Jerome Harrison.  I may be getting the black lung pop (cough, cough) mining this deep but I think Harrison has some real potential going forward.  The Browns are a mess and the Mangina running the show in is desperate need of playmakers.  Harrison should start in week 4 and likely will find the sledding a bit easier at home against Cincy than he did last week in Baltimore.  If Derek Anderson can get on the same page with deep threat Braylon Edwards early, the running lanes could be there for the 4th year man from WSU.

Thing 1: This RB is the workhorse for his team but despite averaging nearly 20 touches per game over the first three weeks he has yet to score a TD.  He is currently averaging 2.5 ypc and is owned in 96% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the 3rd down back and speed option for his team.  In the two games he has appeared in he has totaled 107 total yards on 17 touches.  He is currently averaging 4.4 ypc and is owned in 6% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Larry Johnson and Thing 2 is Jamaal Charles.  I am not a huge fan of Charles but there are times watching him when he reminds me of a poor man’s Chris Johnson.  The explosion and burst is there but the vision appears to be lacking at times.  Nevertheless, the speedster out of Texas will force the Chiefs hand if he continues to flash his playmaking ability, especially contrasted against Johnson’s early ineffectiveness.  Better to take a shot too early on Charles than wait a week to long and watch as another owner scoops him up.

Thing 1: One of the most freakish talents in the game today, this WR has totaled 17 receptions for 181 yards and 2 TDs so far this season.  He is currently owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: One of the most overlooked talents in the game today, this WR has totaled 20 receptions for 229 yards and 1 TD so far this season.  He is currently owned in 42% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Larry Fitzgerald and Thing 2 is Nate Burleson.  I don’t usually like to double-dip and I gave Nasty Nate some love in my first Waiver Watch of the year (as a footnote to Justin Gage’s potential).  That said, Burleson’s ownership percentage has not increased in relation to his early production and I wouldn’t be doing my job if I wasn’t urging you to go and get him before it’s too late.  Some may have thought Seneca Wallace at QB would hurt Burleson’s production but he was targeted 12 times last week and is on pace for 107 grabs and 1221 yards.  Go.  Now.

Thing 1: This D/ST unit is a solid group but they are missing a key playmaker in the secondary.  They have played average offensive clubs thus far and have performed decently.  They are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This D/ST is a young group that swarms to the ball and plays with a competitive fire.  They have been tested early against three strong offensive clubs and have risen to the challenge.  They are owned in 30% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Steelers D/ST and Thing 2 is the 49ers D/ST.  The loss of Troy Polamalu has robbed the Steelers of their big play potential and a lack of consistent pass rush has left their secondary exposed.  Conversely, the 49ers are an up-and-coming unit that have gotten healthy production from Manny Lawson and a much improved secondary.  This hard-nosed group takes it’s cues from 3rd year assassin Patrick Willis and will be kept fresh by a running game that chews up the game clock.  Add to that a week 4 matchup with the woeful Rams and there’s a lot to like here.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Welcome back for my next installment of Thing 1 and Thing 2. If you followed my advice last week you got comparable (and in some cases better) production from your lesser-owned fantasy players. The lone exception was due to Kellen Winslow’s breakout game and Robert Royal’s disappearing act. You can’t win them all I guess but four out of five ain’t bad. As the weeks go on it will get tougher and tougher to uncover those hidden gems so staying active on your league’s waiver wire early can really pay off as the season wears on. Who should you be paying attention to as week 3 approaches? … Let’s get after it.

Thing 1: A much-hyped rookie coming out of college, this kid has loads of talent but hasn’t looked ready for the NFL early in his career.  He is currently the sexier pick in a RBBC offensive scheme but his production has yet to match his 95% ownership in ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A career backup that has had some injury troubles but has always done the most with the chances that have been given to him.  He is currently being overlooked as a fantasy contributor but his production on the field warrants much more consideration than his 38% ownership suggests.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Knowshon Moreno and Thing 2 is Correll Buckhalter.  The running back situation in Denver will likely be fluid all season long, but don’t miss out on the cheap production you can get from a guy like Buckhalter, especially early in the season.  Moreno will finish the season with more touches, but I think Buckhalter will score more TDs for the Broncos due to his big play ability and slightly larger build.

Thing 1: This QBs upside is marginal but he does have a talented group of wide receivers and young, imaginative offensive mind calling the shots.  That said, his decision-making has always been a huge question mark and I am amazed that he is currently owned in 78% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This QB came into the season undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues but is steadily making strides toward fantasy consideration.  He does turn the ball over more than he should but early in the season his yardage and TDs are more than making up for it.  He is currently owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kyle Orton and Thing 2 is Byron Leftwich.  Orton is the prototypical “game manager” and has the potential to post more consistent stat-lines than Leftwich, but the upside of the sluggish-armed Tampa QB is intriguing.  He has shown a good rapport with TE Kellen Winslow early in the year and a defense on the decline could have him playing a lot of catchup.  Ask Jay Cutler how that worked out for his fantasy stats last year.

Thing 1: This WR is an extremely gifted route-runner and has some of surest hands in the NFL.  Due to some off-season changes to his supporting cast, his early-season production has taken a major hit.  I still like the kid a lot, and he is becoming a good buy-low candidate, but he is currently owned in 90% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This young WR has blazing speed and his big-play potential has caused his team to try and find more opportunities to get the ball in his hands.  A big jump in his ownership percentage this past week means owners are starting to take notice so this may be your last chance to go get him.  He is currently owned in 20% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Eddie Royal and Thing 2 is Johnny Knox.  Royal’s loss this past off-season has been Knox’s gain in the form of Jay Cutler.  A strong-armed QB with decent accuracy, Cutler is able to fit the ball into tight spots for Knox to work those shallow crosses and sideline routes that made Royal a household name last year.  As their chemistry grows expect to see more of the speed merchant from Abilene Christian.

Thing 1: This physical WR uses his body extremely well to make tough catches in traffic.  He has a rookie signal-caller tossing him the rock and over the first two weeks of the season they have shown decent chemistry.  He has yet to get into the end zone, but this productive wideout is currently owned in 96% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This second-year WR won a preseason battle for the #2 role on his team.  Although his play was inconsistent in his rookie season, he has shown flashes of big-play potential and has developed into a good route-runner.  He won’t produce as a fantasy starter every week, but there is value here and he is owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jerricho Cotchery and Thing 2 is Chansi Stuckey.  I like what I have seen from Stuckey and his rookie QB thus far.  Mark Sanchez’s lightning-quick feet and superb vision mean he will be able to keep plays alive longer than his aging predecessor, allowing his receivers to work toward open space.  I think Stuckey has big-time sleeper potential in an offense that looks to be much more balanced than anyone thought heading into the season.

Week 2 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Week 1 is in the books and what a strange week it was. Sure a handful of the usual suspects lit up the scoreboard (thank you, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and Reggie Wayne), but just as many fantasy giants stumbled out of the gates – much to the chagrin of their owners (curse you, Jay Cutler, Michael Turner and Andre Johnson).  If your team didn’t quite live up to expectations on opening weekend now is certainly not the time for panic.  A few simple tweaks via trade or your league’s waiver system may be all your club needs to compete not just in week 2 but for the long run as well.  In the short-term, players like Saints running back Mike Bell or Oakland wide receiver Louis Murphy can give your squad a welcome boost in production if you are lacking at those positions.  Both Bell and Murphy are owned in less than 15% of standard ESPN leagues and I expect them to continue to contribute even when the injured Pierre Thomas and Chaz Schilens return to action.  With that in mind, here are some other players to consider that are most likely floating around your league’s free agent pool.

Thing 1: This QB relies on accuracy and decision-making to accumulate fantasy numbers.  He is young, but a strong supporting cast of playmakers takes some of the pressure of him on a weekly basis.  In week 1 he went 22-36 for 229 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  Currently this signal-caller is owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This QB depends on accuracy as well and with improved pass-catchers around him he will no longer be called upon to do too much with too little.  A very intelligent player (Stanford alum), he kicked off his season going 15-25 for 212 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs.  He is currently owned in 52% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is Trent Edwards.  I know Edwards isn’t the sexiest option at QB but I believe in the Buffalo starter just entering his second full season.  His accuracy is excellent and he has the arm strength to make all the throws.  With TO in town to relieve some of the pressure from Lee Evans and a very good receiving backfield duo in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, I think Edwards takes a big step forward this season.

Thing 1: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He had a decent week 1 rushing for 60 yards on 12 carries (5.0 ypc) and snagging three passes for 11 yards, though he failed to get into the end zone.  He is currently owned in 97% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the complimentary back in a run-first offense.  He also had a solid showing in week 1 gaining 55 yards on 12 carries (4.6 ypc) including a touchdown.  In addition, he caught one pass for four yards.  Currently, this back is owned in 13% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ahmad Bradshaw and Thing 2 is Michael Bush.  As any LL reader knows, I love Bradshaw but this is more a testament to Bush’s role with the Raiders (and his considerable upside in the event of a trade or injury).  I like for him to get the bulk of the carries in the red zone and score 8-10 TDs this season.

Thing 1: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and hauled in 8 passes for 103 yards but did not record a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team but this player can be counted on for production and is currently owned in 100% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Thing 2: This WR is the #1 option for a playoff-caliber team.  In week 1 he was targeted frequently and caught 7 passes for 78 yards and a TD.  There are younger, more athletic receiving options on this team as well but this player is a reliable target with the trust of his QB and is currently owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Hines Ward and Thing 2 is Justin Gage.  Like Ward, Gage is a gutsy wideout that will make the tough catch and keep the chains moving.  If he is still available in your league don’t pass up the chance at 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs (see also: Burleson, Nate – 23% ownership).

Thing 1: This TE moved to a new team and didn’t do much in the preseason.  Questions about the QB position have created some uncertainty about his expected production.  He made a decent showing in week 1 catching 5 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown and is currently owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This TE also changed locations in the off-season and had a quiet preseason before emerging as the leading option in week 1 with 4 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown.  With a young QB that will likely rely on this safety valve, this player makes an intriguing option and is owned in 0% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kellen Winslow and Thing 2 is Robert Royal.  No, that is not a typo for Royal’s ownership percentage but I don’t anticipate that number staying as low as it is.  Brady Quinn has shown a strong rapport with his TEs throughout his young career and the spot vacated by Winslow in the off-season may be Royal’s ticket to fantasy relevance.  He is not a TE1 at this point but he is worth a stash (especially in keeper leagues).

Thing 1: A big-name D/ST, this unit’s best days are probably behind them.  Injuries as well as a few off-season departures have robbed this group of a bit of their swagger and big-play ability.  During week one, they faced a poor offense and allowed 24 points without forcing a single turnover and are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A fly-under-the-radar D/ST, this group is an attacking bunch that will give up some big games but will also get after the QB, resulting in sacks and turnovers (fantasy gold).  In week 1 this unit shut down a decent offense to the tune of 7 points while generating 4 turnovers and 4 sacks.  They are currently owned in 4% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Ravens D/ST and Thing 2 is the Falcons D/ST.  I like this group a lot with the understanding that they are best when matched up against running teams with average passing games.  Elite QBs will be able to pick apart their secondary, but the Falcons generate one of the best pass-rushes in the game.  Be sure to grab them to take advantage of a juicy match-up coming up this week against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers.

Fantasy Football Value: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Thank you, Dr. Seuss for the inspiration for this weekly fantasy column.  I was in trade negotiations in one of my dynasty leagues when I got to thinking about the (at times) sizable gap between perception and reality when it comes to NFL players and their production.  Nowhere is this schism more apparent than with the dreaded “injury-prone” label that gets tossed about every off-season around draft time.  Remember kids, it’s corner backs that are supposed to have a short memory, not successful fantasy players.  Nothing chaps my ass more than when a player gets slapped with the IP label simply because they got hurt at some point in their most recent season.  Tom Brady missed all of last season with a shredded knee and then hurt his AC joint this preseason when Albert Haynesworth landed none-too-gracefully on him.  Injury-prone? … probably not.  But Carson Palmer, he of the elbow vagitis last season and sprained ankle this preseason? … avoid at all costs because you can’t count on him to stay on the field.  This is what is referred to as a double standard, and if you can sift through the BS and come to terms with reality, your fantasy team stands to reap the considerable rewards when it comes to draft-day value.

Thing 1: A 27-year-old RB whose 2005-2008 yardage totals are 1139, 1284, 991 and 1170.  He has totaled 25 touchdowns during that span.  This player was injured in 2007 is currently being picked in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 28-year-old RB whose 2005-2008 yardage totals are 1420, 1716, 1480 and 804.  He has totaled 28 touchdowns during that span.  This player was injured in 2008 and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ronnie Brown and Thing 2 is Willie Parker

Thing 1: A 24-year-old TE who caught 54 passes for 574 yards and 5 touchdowns last season.  He will be catching passes from a new QB this season and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 25-year-old TE who caught 55 passes for 627 yards and 5 touchdowns last season.  He will be catching passes from a healthier QB this season and is currently being picked in the 9th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Greg Olsen and Thing 2 is John Carlson

Thing 1: A 27-year-old WR who has hauled in 171 passes over the past two seasons totaling 2584 yards and 13 touchdowns.  He was the favorite target of a rookie signal-caller last season and is currently being picked in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 35-year-old WR who has hauled in 183 passes over the past two seasons totaling 2124 yards and 10 touchdowns.  He was the favorite target of a rookie signal-caller last season and is currently being picked in the 8th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Roddy White and Thing 2 is Derek Mason

Thing 1: A 24-year-old QB that completed 61% of his passes and threw for 3440 yards and 16 touchdowns.  This player also ran for 104 yards and 1 touchdown and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 31-year-old QB that completed 63% of his passes and threw for 3620 yards and 15 touchdowns.  This player also ran for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns and is currently being picked in the 12th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is David Garrard

Thing 1: A 32-year-old QB that was banged up and missed nearly all of the 2008 season.  In the three years prior to that, his average season was 4148 yards passing and 33 touchdowns.  He is currently being picked in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 29-year-old QB that was banged up and missed nearly all of the 2008 season.  In the three years prior to that, his average season was 4001 yards passing and 29 touchdowns.  He is currently being picked in the 8th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Tom Brady and Thing 2 is Carson Palmer

Thing 1: A 26-year-old RB that has averaged 1155 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs and 13.75 games/season over the last four years.  This player has played a full 16 games only once and is currently being picked in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 31-year-old RB that has averaged 1244 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs and 15.75 games/season over the last four years.  This player has played a full 16 games five times and is currently being picked in the 5th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Steven Jackson and Thing 2 is Thomas Jones

Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

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Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

The Value of Opportunity

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Football, perhaps more than any other sport, is all about opportunity.  At the highest level the separation between stars and scrubs is often not a measure of talent but rather the chance players are given to put that talent on display.  For every Peyton Manning that was drafted into stardom there is a Tom Brady that toiled in obscurity until they got their shot (thank you, Drew Bledsoe).  As an avid fantasy footballer, part of what I try to do in building winning teams is to assess players not only on what they have done (given their opportunity), but what they could do if given the chance.  Historically sleepers are identified from one season to the next by determining which players’ values will take a spike due to either an increased role, a change of scenery, or an improved surrounding cast.  This logic seems sound in a lot of ways but it also leaves a lot to chance.  If I’m taking a shot on a guy in the mid-to-late rounds of my draft, I want to know that given the opportunity he will put points on the board.  Perhaps the best predictor of what a player is capable of with the ball in their hands is FPT or Fantasy Points per Touch.  Depending on the scoring of your league, you should have an idea which guys do the most with what they are given and then look for individuals in that group who may take advantage of an improved situation in the upcoming season.  The following lists of FPT all-stars compared to their top-tier peers are based on a standard PPR league for the 2009 season.  Call them sleepers if you want, but these are the guys you can trust to make the most of their opportunities when given the chance.

Quarterbacks

Top-Tier Peers:

Philip Rivers – .66 FPT
Drew Brees – .55 FPT
Peyton Manning – .52 FPT
Kurt Warner – .51 FPT
Jay Cutler – .46 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Shaun Hill – .50 FPT – I know he’s not sexy, but Shaun Hill wins football games and I have to think that when the chips are down Mike Singletary would rather have him behind center than an aging vet or an unproven rookie if the Niners go that route in April.  Young wideout Josh Morgan keeps getting better and I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco go WR early when the draft rolls around or make a play on Torry Holt or Anquan Boldin if and when they come available.  If he wins the gig (and I think he will) and plays a full season, you’ll look like a genius for nabbing Hill with one of the last picks in the draft while others reached for a big name QB early.

Trent Edwards – .40 FPT – The career path of quarterbacks that have played with TO can’t be ignored.  Yes, he’s a pain in the ass … yes, he does topless crunches in his driveway while fielding questions from reporters … yes, he has the emotional maturity of a jock strap … but … Jeff Garcia went to three Pro Bowls throwing him the rock, Donovan McNabb had the best season of his career when TO was flying like an Eagle, and Tony Romo bacame a household name (and landed some hotties) during Owens’ time in big D.  Edwards is already a very accurate passer and has displayed good intangibles with only a couple seasons under his belt.  I anticipate a BIG step forward for the Stanford alum in the upcoming season.

Tarvaris Jackson – .56 FPT – The only thing standing between T-Jack and fantasy production is one Bradford Childress.  There aren’t many men I detest more than the software engineer currently running the show in Minnesota.  When given the opportunity Jackson has made strides toward becoming a viable NFL starting quarterback (see his 95.4 QB rating and 9-2 TD-INT ratio in limited action last season).  For reasons beyond my comprehension the Viking’s brass wants to hand the reigns to the walking turnover that is Sage Rosenfels.  When that fails miserably and the Vikes stumble out of the gates, make sure Jackson isn’t floating out on your league’s free agent list and he will reward you with above average production.

Running Backs

Top-Tier Peers:

Maurice Jones-Drew – 1.02 FPT
Brian Westbrook – .92 FPT
LaDainian Tomlinson – .77 FPT
Michael Turner – .71 FPT
Adrian Peterson – .66 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Pierre Thomas – 1.12 FPT – When Thomas took over the reigns for the injured (again) Reggie Bush and aging Deuce McAllister, the Saints offense didn’t miss a beat.  In fact, the guy that played in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois took full advantage of his opportunity down the stretch last season and carried many fantasy owners to their respective championships.  Thomas proved to be a dynamic all-around threat as he displayed a nose for the goaline as well as above-average receiving skills out of the backfield.  Rumors have been swirling as they always do this time of year, but barring a reunion between Drew Brees and LT in the Big Easy, Thomas looks to be the guy to own in the Saint’s backfield heading forward.

Felix Jones – 1.41 FPT – How did Arkansas not win a national championship with Jones and Darren McFadden in their backfield?  I’m pretty sure I could have coached that team to 11 wins using a Tecmo Bowl playbook.  This silky smooth sophomore was putting up HUGE numbers with his limited chances early in the season before suffering a hamstring injury that translated into what was essentially a lost season.  Never fear, reports out of Dallas are that Jerry Jones wants to hand a bigger portion of the workload to Jones to help keep sledgehammer Marion Barber fresh.  The loss of the Tuman Oeadache also means the Cowboys will rely more on the ground game this season.  Don’t expect Jones to keep averaging nearly a point and a half per touch, but 950 yards and 8 touchdowns with contributions in the passing game and special teams is well within his reach.

Ahmad Bradshaw – .67 FPT – This one may be a stretch for some of you, but when I look around the league at muddy backfield situations in Denver, New England and Baltimore, you could do a lot worse than nabbing this diminutive fireball in the mid-to-late rounds of your league’s draft.  Bradshaw will be 23 at the start of the season, and he has averaged 6.1 YPC for his career in a limited role with the G-Men.  Derrick Ward’s breakout season stunted his growth last year, but word out of Giants camp is that the coaching staff is excited to see what Bradshaw can do with an increased role this year.  Translation: this guy could reward savvy owners with 800-900 yards and handful of touchdowns.  Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser but he doesn’t catch passes and he doesn’t stay healthy for full seasons … look for Bradshaw to open some eyes this year.

Wide Receivers

Top-Tier Peers:

Calvin Johnson – 3.38 FPT
Greg Jennings – 3.23 FPT
Larry Fitzgerald – 3.19 FPT
Roddy White – 2.89 FPT
Andre Johnson – 2.71 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Vincent Jackson – 3.30 FPT – Jackson’s size and speed combo served as a frustration to his owners in his first three seasons in the NFL.  Surely a guy with his physical gifts would dominate the league … it was just a matter of time.  Well, fantasy owners are not known for their patience but dynasty leaguers that held on to Jackson during his steady upward trends early in his career reaped the rewards of a very quietly productive season in 2008.  A physical freak at 6’5″ 230 lbs with a lightning quick explosion off the line and tremendous leaping ability, Jackson is a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses.  Another year in the saddle for Philip Rivers and the emergence of Jackson as a legitimate red zone threat could result in a top-5 WR next season for those that call his number on draft day.

Steve Breaston – 2.40 FPT – This is me saying I don’t think Boldin is coming back to the Cards.  Nobody (including the Cardinal’s front office as evidenced by the selection of Early Doucet last April) saw this second year man from Michigan ascending to the ranks of fantasy relevance before last season.  When Boldin exits stage east (hello Philly?), Breaston will step into his vacated spot opposite Larry Fitzgerald.  With the attention the braided one will command on the other side, Kurt Warner and Breaston will be free to carve up opposing defenses between the 20s.  Double-digit touchdowns may be a bit optimistic with the variety of weapons at Warner’s disposal, but 90 catches and 1,200 yards is well within reach for this dynamic speedster.  Invest.

Lee Evans – 2.80 FPT – Uncertainty at the quarterback position and a lack of talent around him have hurt Evans’ production throughout his NFL career.  Despite these limiting factors, the supremely talented former Badger has never missed a game and has never averaged less than 15 yards per catch in any of his five seasons.  Enter TO … with the flamboyant prima donna drawing the attention of defenses and media outlets alike, Evans will be freed up to work over the top without facing the double and triple teams that have held his stats in check thus far.  Another point to consider … Lee’s numbers have never been about quantity but QUALITY of his catches (averaging less than 60 catches per season) … TO commanding 80-90 balls will not cut into his value as some have speculated.  I anticipate a HUGE season for Evans in the 75-80 catch neighborhood with 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.

first published on March 10, 2009

Over/Under Part 1: A Preview of the 2009 American League Baseball Season

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In this the first installment of my Over/Under series, I will be throwing out a statline for one position player and one pitcher from each American League squad and then determining whether I expect that player’s production to exceed or fall short of that standard. When the All-Star break rolls around we’ll check up on our progress and then again once the season has concluded. What follows may very well be the inside edge you need to win your fantasy league and earn bragging rights over your buddies … just don’t forget me when you’re counting out your winnings.

Over/Under 25 HR 115 RBI and 15 SB for Nick Markakis: Over – The Greek god of production, Markakis does it all. With Brian Roberts and an improving Adam Jones setting the table, this is a guy you want on your team.

Over/Under 10 wins and 120 Ks for Jeremy Guthrie: Under – The Baltimore ace by default, Guthrie has movement on all his pitches and pounds the strikezone, but in a brutal division he will struggle to match last year’s production.

Over/Under 60 SB and 105 R for Jacoby Ellsbury: Over – If you’re fishing for batting average and power you will be disappointed, but Ellsbury can fly and a (mostly) healthy David Ortiz helps everybody in this lineup.

Over/Under 200 IP and 15 wins for Josh Beckett: Over – As always, if he pitches his production will be there. I think Beckett has something to prove this year and there there is no nastier pitcher when he has a chip on his shoulder.

Over/Under .325 BA and 20 HR for Robinson Cano: Over – It seems like Cano has been around forever though he is only 26.  I think this is the year he puts it all together and becomes a force in the middle of that Yankee lineup.

Over/Under 175 IP and 12 wins for AJ Burnett: Under – When he’s on he’s filthy, but career highs in starts, innings, strikeouts and wins last season have me concerned.  A hot start to the season wouldn’t surprise me … 30 starts would.

Over/Under 15 HR and 50 SB for Carl Crawford: Over – How quickly we forget … a season removed from All-Star production, the unquestioned leader of the Rays is due for a major bounce-back season in 2009.

Over/Under 20 starts for David Price: Over – This is becoming a yearly occurance for the Rays.  Look for them to bring Price along sometime soon ala Evan Longoria last season.  10 wins is not out of the question for the young lefty.

Over/Under 20 HR and 80 RBI for Travis Snider: Over – With a depleted pitching staff, the Jays will need to outscore teams with their talented young lineup.  This 21-year-old phenom is one of the few brights spots in Toronto.

Over/Under 10 wins and 125 Ks for David Purcey: Under – There are a lot of believers in the big lefty in the middle of the Blue Jay rotation.  I am not one of them.  A shaky bullpen situation only hurts Purcey’s value in 2009 … avoid.

Over/Under 25 HR and 90 RBI for Alexei Ramirez: Under – The Cuban-born Ramirez won’t sneak up on big league pitchers this season.  That isn’t to say he won’t be a productive player, but temper your expectations.

Over/Under 15 wins and a 3.50 ERA for John Danks: Over – The 23-year-old lefty improved his command in his sophomore season.  If the ChiSox can get him some run support the wins will follow, even if his ERA creeps up a bit.

Over/Under 20 HR and 100 RBI for Victor Martinez: Over – Look for the outlier in Martinez’s past five seasons then consider that he is only 30 years old.  Don’t be scared off by his injury-plagued 2008, he will rebound in a big way.

Over/Under 12 wins and 185 IP for Fausto Carmona: Under – Speaking of outliers, Carmona had his in 2007 with his 3.06 ERA.  He simply walks too many batters to be a reliable fantasy pitcher, especially with his lack of strikeouts.

Over/Under 20 HR and 20 SB for Curtis Granderson: Over – The perfect table-setter for this Tiger lineup, look for Granderson to get off to a hot start.  Jimmy Leyland wants Granderson to run more this season as well.

Over/Under 200 IP and 17 wins for Armando Gallaraga: Over – He isn’t flashy, but this Venezuelan righty knows how to win ballgames.  With the Tiger’s potent lineup, I think 20 wins is within reach as early as this season.

Over/Under 20 HR and a .275 BA for Alex Gordon: Over – Gordon has very quietly made improvements in each of his first two seasons.  He’s not a true breakout candidate yet, but look for the positive trend to continue this season.

Over/Under 3.45 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for Zack Greinke: Under – If Greinke can continue to improve his ground ball rate, he could see big returns in the win column this season.  The Royals may surprise some people this season.

Over/Under 10 HR and 30 SB for Denard Span: Over – Delmon Young gets all the pub, but Span is the Twins OF you want to own.  Another season under his belt and we could be looking at a poor man’s Carl Crawford.

Over/Under 3.75 ERA and 35 BB for Kevin Slowey: Under – This kid isn’t overpowering, but he is an assassin with his command.  Limiting free passes means fewer big innings and more talleys in the win column at seasons end.

Over/Under 500 AB and a .325 BA for Howie Kendrick: Over – Once in a while you just have to go out on a limb.  Sadly for this 25-year-old second baseman, staying healthy for a full season hasn’t happened yet … until now.

Over/Under 50 starts for Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey and Ervin Santana: Under – The Angels may have their work cut out for them if Joe Saunders remains near the top of their rotation.  As these three go, the halo’s season goes.

Over/Under 30 HR and 120 RBI for Matt Holliday: Over – The power numbers will be there, but the 28 stolen bases are sure to decrease in Oakland.  No matter, Holliday rakes and in an improved A’s lineup he will have a huge year.

Over/Under 20 wins between Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill: Over – They aren’t Hudson, Zito or Mulder, but this pair of youngsters will be called upon this year to bolster the Oakland staff.  I think they will answer the bell.

Over/Under 30 HR and 100 RBI for Adrian Beltre: Over – The last time Beltre was in a contract year he exploded.  I wouldn’t expect another 48 homeruns but this rock-solid defensive third baseman can handle the stick as well.

Over/Under 30 saves for Brandon Morrow: Under – Concerns over his arm landed Morrow back in the bullpen, concerns over his ability to throw strikes has me thinking he may not keep this role once Chad Cordero is healthy.

Over/Under 20 HR and 85 RBI for Hank Blalock: Over – With Michael Young shifting over to third base, Blalock will assume the full-time DH role for the Rangers.  If he stays healthy (and I think he can), his numbers will be there.

Over/Under 15 wins and 135 Ks for Kevin Millwood: Under – Millwood eats innings, but the durable righty surrenders too many hits to be counted on for big win production.  Double-digit wins should be within reach, but just barely.