Monthly Archives: December 2009

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions

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Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions: About 60% of the public bet is on Miami, and while they are a better team at home, the Texans have shed their normal “road schmo” title, going 4-3 away from Houston so far this season. And despite the Dolphins ability to run the football with success against just about any opponent, I do happen to think Houston is the better team of the two. Not only can they throw the ball as well as any team in the league, but defensively they bring a lot more heat than many believe.

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This Houston defense has given up 21 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. And while that normal late season swoon basically eliminated the Texans from post-season dreams, they are still playing for their first winning season in, well, in forever. They’ve been 8-8 each of the last two seasons, and while that’s a step in the right direction, a winning year is theirs if they can win out. With that on the line, I definitely expect this one to be a battle.

So it will come down to the little things, or the small details, and the fact that Houston has had just about the worst luck all season long has something to do with my decision. Yes, that kind of stuff evens out folks, and it should do that here. Houston lost their first game by 17 points. Since then, they’ve lost 6 other times. Since then, not a single loss has been decided by more than 8 points. Those one score games have killed them, but I think they get this one. The luck turns!

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers: Week 16 NFL Picks

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Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers Week 16 NFL Picks: It’s amazing the way match-ups can make themselves special. Take this one, for example, the Hawks and Packers have a common link: they are the only two teams that have lost to Tampa Bay this season. Amazing.

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Listen, anything can happen, and it very well might, but Seattle on the road, going up against a pissed off Packers team that just lost by a point on the road with a last play touchdown – please. When you add on the fact that Green Bay has been lighting people up, winners in 5 of their last 6 games, and going up against probably the most pathetic playing bunch of no-effort, poorly coached, aggression-less clowns holding a 1-6 road record close to their heart – yeah, the Packers seem like a no-brainer.

And despite my insessent searching to tell me otherwise, I can’t find a good reason to go with the road dog here. I know just under 63% of the bet is on Green Bay, and that has to be a bit of a red-flag, but that can’t sway my bet. I know the Packers have only won a few games by more than 14 points, but Seattle seems to fit the bill of the lackluster opponents responsible for Green Bay’s biggest wins (teams like Detroit-twice, and Cleveland. Maybe talent-wise, Seattle is better that those teams, but effort-wise, I’d have to say everyone ranks higher than the Sea Chickens.

The Packers are 5-2 at home, and aside from one mishap against Tampa Bay, have stomped the lesser NFL teams so far this season. I like that trend to continue with a Packer win in Green Bay. They have more to play for, play harder, are more aggressive, and finally are a terrible match-up for Seattle’s soft offense.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

Oakland Raiders vs Cleveland Browns: Expert NFL Picks

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Oakland Raiders vs Cleveland Browns Expert NFL Picks: What the Browns have been doing lately depends very little on quarterback play, and even if it did, Brady Quinn wasn’t showing flashes of Bernie Kosar or anything crazy like that, so Derek Anderson should be able to step in and do a terrible job. In fact, this game is guaranteed to have some amazingly poor quarterbacking play. A couple throws and decisions made will surely perform like pepper spray in the casual on-watcher’s eye, so much so that I can’t wait to catch a glimpse. That’s right, I’ll have this game recorded for my complete viewing pleasure. Anytime I get sad football is over come this off-season, I’ll play the first few minutes of this game and feel better instantly!

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All jokes aside, I think the Browns are a decent bet here. They’ve played pretty solid football (sounds gross, I know) over the last 6 weeks or so. Maybe not solid, but there’s been something good coming from their team in all 6 of their last 6 games. Against Baltimore, their defense was stout. Against Detroit, their offense came alive. They lost by just 9 to Cincinnati in another tough defensive battle. They lost by a touchdown to one of the best teams in football (San Diego). They beat Pittsburgh straight up, and made it two in a row by laying 41 points on Kansas City in a game where their rushing attack (mainly James Harrison) torched the Chiefs for 300+ yards and a 41-34 score on the road.

Oakland has a better defense, but just barely. I’m not sure what I would have conceded first, teh Raiders winning two straight or Cleveland winning 3 in a row. But it looks like the answer’s Cleveland for me this week. At home, a solid run game, I’ll take them.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Boston College Eagles vs USC Trojans: Emerald Bowl Picks

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Boston College Eagles vs USC Trojans: Emerald Bowl Picks: I just don’t think the all mighty super-team, best program over the last decade USC Trojans will be excited to play in a day-after-Christmas day game against a team like Boston College. Listen, I think BC is better than people give them credit for, heck, they might be better than USC this season, but the Trojans are used to Rose Bowls, Championship Games, and Top 10 opponents come Bowl time – unranked BC could very well be someone USC looks right past.

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And with the chances USC loses one of their most explosive players (McKnight) in an offense that, quite frankly, hasn’t produced like Trojan offenses of the past, seems like the start of something interesting. USC certainly has the talent to match-up with any team in college football, but McKnight is only one key player missing this game, and all signs point to the Trojans not taking this game too seriously.

This game is being played in San Francisco, which just happens to be the same state USC calls home, and this will probably be more of a home game type feel for the Trojans, but I have a feeling BC will come with some fight. This IS a big game for them, and a chance to prove they belong with the big boys. One thing USC has learned, every time they suit up, they get their opponent’s best – and I like the Eagles to give the Trojans exactly that.

Boston College Eagles (+9) VS USC Trojans

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks: I wrote in my Just Picks Newsletter than “I’d Feel like a moron if I didn’t pick the Chiefs in Cincinnati.” And that’s almost exclusively because the Bengals have played close with just about everyone. There is no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati could and probably should beat the Chiefs by 21 points or more, but the Bengals just haven’t played football like that. They are in it to win games, and if the best way to do that is run the ball a ton and get the game over as fast as possible, that’s exactly what they are going to do. I should know, I’ve been picking the Bengals to cover big spreads, and they’ve been killing me because of it.

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The Bengals are 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS, but 0-4 ATS when favored by 6 points or more so far this season. They’ve beaten just one single team by double digits this season, the Chicago Bears in a rare offensively explosion game for the Bengals. One. In 9 wins, they’ve had one double digit victory – that’s almost crazy speak. But like I said, they are in it to win it and how pretty the score looks at games’ end is of no consequence to the Bengals.

The Chiefs are bad, and even worse on the road, and they only close game they’ve played over the last 4 weeks is their 34-41 loss to Cleveland at home last week, but listen, I’m not picking the Chiefs because of the Chiefs, I’m taking them because of the Bengals, the best ugly winner in football.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

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Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: Sure, the Falcons won last week in a game they probably didn’t have any reason to win – they were playing with nothing to gain, with some key injuries, and a banged up defense that had struggled all season – but they won anyway. And the Bills, well, they lost again. But it’s not that easy, and I really think the Bills are playing their best football of the season while Atlanta just made a win out of a situation where their opponent just couldn’t put them away. Another loss and a Falcon win helped this spread be what it opened at, and getting the Bills at +9 seems like a deal to me.

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Shoot, at one book, you can even get the Bills at +9.5 – which is definitely better than 9. 35-24, 27-18, 30-20 – I’ve seen those happen a lot, 9 point games aren’t crazy, so if you can get that extra half point, that’s nice – but I think this game will be closer than 9. First of all, the Bills love to run the ball, and run it they will. 2nd of all, getting up to play a Jets team with playoff aspirations is one thing, but getting up when you have no chance at the playoffs against the 5-9 Buffalo Bills is a completely different deal. To put it simply, I don’t see the Falcons coming out and doing that.

Atlanta has played in close games all season long, winning only 3 games by more than 8 points, and playing plenty of close games in which they lost. The Bills have played in plenty of close games lately, and despite winning just 2 of their last 5, have finished within a touchdown or less in each loss. Look for this one to be close.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Panthers vs North Carolina Tar Heels: Meineke Car Care Bowl Pick

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Pittsburgh Panthers vs North Carolina Tar Heels: As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Tar Heels actually look like the better team to me. I know the Panthers have a pretty damn good record, and they’ve played tight against some very good teams, but I’m afraid they might have out-produced themselves this season. It’s not like the ACC has shown it’s speed, toughness, and grit against other conferences this year – but this Tar Heel team can shut down most any rushing attack, and they put a lot of pressure on opposing offenses. The Pitt Panthers have one real strength, their rushing attack, and I forsee the Tar Heels doing a very good job of slowing that portion of the Panthers’ offense down.

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69% of the public is against me in this one, and I understand why. The Panthers are 9-3 SU this season, 7-4 ATS – but they haven’t been awesome on the road, just 3-2 this season, and never really looking that good (besides @ Louisville, and lets be honest, that shouldn’t count). But Pitt has been tough, no doubt, they have yet to get beaten by more than 7 points, and lost their last two games by a total of 4 points, losing 44-45 against Cincinnati in the final game of their regular season.

But it’s that fall that has me worried. The Panthers went from a possible BCS bowl to a Meineke Car Care Bowl against an un-ranked ACC opponent – there may very well be a lull in their preparation for this game based on that alone. The Tar Heels have also played thier best football of the season in their last 5 games, beating Va Tech, Duke, Miami, and Boston College – before getting upset by a point against their in-state rival, NC State. I like them to win their 5th in 6 chances this Saturday.

Pittsburgh Panthers VS North Carolina Tar Heels (+3):

Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio Bobcats: Little Caesars Bowl Pick

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Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio Bobcats: Despite nearly 68% of the public betting on Ohio in this one, the line has actually moved in the Bobcats’ favor. Starting at 3.5 this game has actually come down to a more user-friendly 3 point spread for the favorites. Interesting, always.

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But Ohio has been solid this season. They are 9-4 straight up and against the spread, playing good football at home (4-2) but even better football on the road (5-1) which I think is always a nice thing to have on your side come the Bowl Season – because, in a way, these are all road games. Ohio came in winning 4 of their last 5 games, including a tough loss to end their non-bowl season (10-20 @ Central Michigan – a game they covered). In fact, the Bobcats have covered 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 contests. They’ve played well against solid competition, losing by just 10 to a very good Central Michigan team, and lost by only 11 to Tennessee. They might not score much, but they can play.

Marshall comes in losers in 5 of their last 8, and more recently 3 of their last 4 games. They’ve played their best football against bad teams, and it’s tough to see them coming out and being tough against the Bobcats. Marshall is 6-6 straight up, 6-5 ATS, but just 2-4 on the road this season. They give up 3 more points per game than they score, which is never something I like to have on the team I’m picking. These teams are fairly equal, but I have to take the one winning the intangibles – and that’s Ohio.

Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio Bobcats (-3)

Fantasy Focus Review: Week 15 Fantasy Football

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Heyyo! The Review is in, busy week with the family holiday extravaganza and all – hope you enjoy!

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Wes Welker – Welker and the Pats offense basically got shutdown in a win over the Bills, what has happened to Terrific Tom and the wonder kids? F
2. Ray Rice –  Just 18th amongst RBs with 14 fantasy points, I wanted more. C+
3. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota didn’t get AP the ball enough, and they paid the ultimate price, getting blown out by Carolina… F
4. Drew Brees – 19th amongst QBs, not the outcome I, and many Brees owners wanted. F
5. Chris Johnson – CJ had his worst week in ages, still 15th overall with 15 fantasy points. B-

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson – DeSean Jackson is very, very good. And so fast. He put up great numbers again. A
2. Jamal Charles – 5th running back in Week 15, kid has been a legit force for weeks now. A+
3. Thomas Jones – Outscored by his brother, never a good thing, Thomas didn’t get the ball enough against the Falcons. Some offenses are so stupid. F
4. Cedric Benson –32nd overall, Benson’s 15 carries went for just 53 yards. He has yet to score since coming back from injury. D
5. Brandon Jacobs – 15 carries for 52 yards, whoopy-de-doo… F

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –32nd RB in Week 15, not the worst day every for a last minute pick-up, but he continues to out-produce his touch numbers, Jim Mora=tool-shed. C
2. Quentin Ganther – Not many yards, but a TD and a couple catches made him the 25th ranked RB, not too shabby. B
3. Vince Young– 7th QB this week with 27 fantasy points, how you like me no? A+
4. Laurence Maroney– 18th amongst RBs, probably not a super sleeper, but a solid start this week. B
5. Alex Smith– Smith was pretty useless this week as aside from Brett and Hass, almost every starter was better. F
6. Steve Breaston – Same old same the last few weeks, a few catches for 30 something yards – not what I was hoping for. D-

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Brady Quinn – Quinn’s offense gained over 350 yards, but his part was the handoff role. Quinn wasn’t a Top 30 signal caller, brutal. F
2. Chris Jennings – Chris didn’t do a lot with his carries, and Jerome Harrison did, going for 49 fantasy points, and I was saying, “Hey! Those are my guy’s fantasy points… I hate you Eric Man-Gina!” F
3. Maurice Morris – Morris managed 26 fantasy points this week, good for 3rd amongst RBs – not so bad for a super sleeper last minute pick up! A+
4. Devin Aromashodu – Just 3 fantasy points for Devin, Cutler wasn’t at his best, and the Bears got killed. F
5. Greg Camarillo – I said the late pick up would give your 5 or more grabs for 50 or more yards, I was just short, he caught 5 for 46 yards… Not a bad pick up by any means. B
6. Deon Butler –Hasselbeck was terrible and Butler had 3 catches for 30 yards. Oh Matt. D

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Hines Ward– 15th receiver this week, every time I go against him, he gets me! F
2. Mario Manningham– Hakeem Nicks went down, and Manningham benefited. 31st WR this week. D
3. Matt Forte – 6 fantasy points for Matt.. Gross. Again. A
4. LeSean McCoy –22nd RB in Week 15, he didn’t even get the most carries for the Eagles as Leonard Weaver did more work. But McCoy scored, and was better than I predicted. D
5. Kyle Orton– Orton managed a nice loss to Oakland, but he still went for 18 fantasy points, ranking him 15th amongst QBs, not so bad, not so great. C-

***And if you won on my account, you’re welcome – if you lost because of me, sorry for turning up the suck!***

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Fantasy Focus: Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

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Here’s Week 16’s Fantasy Focus – do work in the playoffs! Sorry for the brief intro, Santa’s got to do his magic… haha.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Fred Jackson – Atlanta slowed down the Jets rushing attack last week, but Fred will catch a good amount of passes as well. I think he’ll be huge this week.
2. Chris Johnson–  Can’t keep him out of my Top 5.
3. Aaron Rodgers – Seattle isn’t ready for deep passes, I promise, Rodgers should eat them alive.
4. Adrian Peterson – Great match-up against a dead Bears team. Hopefully they don’t rest AP.
5. Philip Rivers – I see the Titans closing down the Chargers rush game, not the passing attack.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Beanie Wells –Best runner on his team, easily, and the Rams mean 20+ carries.
2. Ricky Williams– Houston’s run D is better, but the Dolphins are always tough.
3. Jason Snelling – Lots of room against Buffalo, he’ll get the Lions’ share.
4. Hines Ward – I think Hines has a great game against his favorite foes.
5. Greg Jennings – Tough season, but the upside is against Seattle on Sunday.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Larry Johnson –Both he and Benson should beat up that Chiefs D-front.
2. Pierre Thomas – He has been very inconsistent, like most of the Saints’ backs, but he’s the healthiest and has a nice match-up against Tampa Bay.
3. Vince Young– You need to start believing me about Vince. Good player.
4. Jon Stewart– Usually the #2 in Carolina, should get #1 carries this week, and even though the match-up isn’t great, Carolina’s run game is, he’s worth the start.
5. Fred Davis– Campbell’s top target these days, I think he’s a solid bet against Dallas’s secondary.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Jerome Harrison – I’ve alwasy thought Harrison was the best runner in Cleveland, can you trust Man-Gina? No – but Harrison is still the most talented runner in Cleveland.
2. Quinton Ganther – He’s not consistently awesome, and he hasn’t had a huge week, but Ganther can still play well against a Dallas D that can overlook opponents.
3. David Thomas – Thomas is a #2 TE with #1 upside, and if you need a guy, he could be yours.
5. Greg Camarillo – If you need 10 fantasy points, I think Greg is good for that these last couple weeks.
6. Deon Butler – I still like Butler, he’s got lots of upside and should be better in his second week getting lots of looks.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Peyton Manning– You’ll either love me or hate me for this advice, I’m betting on love.
2. David Garrard– I don’t see Garrard having a great game against the Pats’ D.
3. Reggie Wayne – Tough to sit one of the best, but even if he played a bit, Revis is shutdown.
4. Thomas Jones –Everyone says “start this guy big time” but I don’t think so. The Colts will sit a bunch of starters and make the Jets beat them via the pass.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson– It’s hard for me to see LT beating up the Titans, I think the Chargers start limiting Tomlinson to keep him healthy for the playoffs.

***I think playing Colts is a risk you might have to take this week, if you have really good back-ups, meaning if your league is shallow, stay away from Colts like Addai, Manning, Wayne, etc – if it’s a 16 team league and there’s not much there, risk it.***

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