Monthly Archives: December 2009

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview

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New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview: Face it my fantasy minions, playing Colts offensive stars is not something you have confidence doing in Week 16 – at least you shouldn’t. Not only are the Jets one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the league, but the Colts have everything they wanted when the season started. Sure, they could get to 16-0, and an undefeated season would be amazing – but Indy has made it clear that 16-0 means nothing to them, and sending Peyton out there in a game that means nothing against a defense that is playing for a shot at the playoffs seems like a risk they aren’t willing to take. You add that to the fact that the Jets do a very good job shutting down the pass, and I don’t see any other play in this one.

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The Colts are a very good team, and if this game was played three or four weeks ago, sure, I’d be taking the Colts as a 6 point favorite – no doubt. But this is Week 16, and it’s rest time for Colts starters rather they are saying it or not. Even if they do play, I doubt it will be for more than a half. And even if they play for a half, it is hard for me to believe that they will be all in.

The Jets will come out trying to win while Indy will come out trying to finish the game as healthy as they came in – those motives should be realized, and should make the Jets an easy pick.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 16 Pick

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Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 16 Pick: First of all, anytime you get a team favored by double digits that averages one more point per game than they give up, have a record of 6-8, and have an offense that is, in no way whatsoever explosive, you are certainly taking a big chance by going with that team. So here I am, taking a big chance in Week 16 long after I’ve had plenty of time to learn my lesson.

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What intrigues me about the 49ers is their pass first offense and how it might just help them get way up against a team like the Lions. In almost every other situation, I hate that the Niners have become a pass happy team working in the spread, giving the ball to Frank Gore not enough times, and generally passing themselves into trouble – but against Detroit? I’m not quite as worried, that’s for sure. But 11 points? Tough one to stomach.

But we’re not just talking about the 49ers here. No, no. We’re not just talking about a team that is just 6-8, a team that lost to Seattle for goodness sake. But while we are talking about them, let me mention that in 4 of their 6 wins, they’ve won by double digits.

The reason I’m taking the 49ers by 11 is because they are playing the freaking Lions. Detroit is a battered team, and even when they were healthy, the best they could do was become a 2-12 team with 9 double digit losses this season. I’m not 100% sure, but I’m willing to bet that’s more double digit losses than any other team in the league. Good enough for me – I’ll take the Niners!

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11)

Papas Football Picks: Week 16 NFL Predictions & Previews

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Well, I actually won 4 games last week, but since my article didn’t get published until Sunday Morning, the Dallas Cowboys upset win didn’t get counted. Even though the publisher knew I wrote the article prior to the game, it wasn’t fair for us to put the picks up after the game and count them toward my record. But hey, it is what it is, hopefully everyone listened to Lucky and went with the Cowboys for a big win over the Saints. Who dat gonna beat dem Saints? Only the Cowboys thus far. That’s who.

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The 49ers couldn’t’ cover the 9 point spread last week, but Miami covered by that all important half point, losing by a field goal in overtime.The Packers ended up losing, just like Lucky claimed, but the +2 was enough for me to cover in find fashion. I must say, seeing the Packers up 6 with the Steelers driving had me feeling pretty dang comfortable. And the Bucos just flat out smacked the Seahawks in the face, pulling the upset in Seattle. Nice work Jim Mora – clown.

This week I have only Sunday games, so things don’t get confused at all. And without further word fodder, here they go…

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Cleveland: Listen, this game will be close. Both teams suck. 3.5 points is a nice friendly spread for a game like this. The Raiders quarterback injuries shouldn’t matter much, it’s not like they have had good play since Rich Gannon finished in Oak Town.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have one single win by 14 points or more. It was the Bears, and Chicago doesn’t count. Kansas City has a nice rushing attack these days, and that should be just enough for the double touchdown dog to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) @ New England Patriots: I know the Pats should feast on the Jaguars secondary, but the Pats should have been feasting on defenses for weeks now – and guess what, they haven’t, that’s what. Tom Brady is killing my fantasy team, and hopefully for this pick, he keeps on killing.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: I just don’t think Indy comes to play in this one, and i don’t think their starters play more than a quarter, maybe two. The Jets want it more, need it more, and will go all out until they get it. That’s more than I can say for the Colts. Seems like free money!

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+8): I know the Redskins were terrible last week, but hey, they’ve played pretty well prior to that. I have to think last week was just a tough go, and the Redskins will be ready to rock with Dallas in town. 8 points is too much for this rivalry.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers: Music City Bowl

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60% of the betting public likes Clemson, and that makes sense. It’s the Tigers that have finished the season with the type of flourish most expected from them all season long. It’s the Tigers that possess one of the most dynamic players in all of college football, running back, kick/punt return, receiving option, super player C.J. Spiller. There’s lots of flash on Clemson’s side, but one might say that Kentucky finished the season just as strong.

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Both teams lost their last game, but Kentucky, like Clemson, won 5 of their last 7 games. Two of those were as double digit underdogs, beating Georgia and Auburn. Kentucky barely lost to Tennessee (overtime), Mississippi State (a touchdown), and South Carolina (2 points). Their other two losses? Alabama and Florida. Kentucky is 6-6 ATS on the season, and 3-1 overall on the road – a nice stat for bowl teams. They score 27.2 per game while giving up 22.8. They are 5-3 ATS and SU in their last 8 games.

Clemson has won 6 of their last 8, but come into the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl losing two in a row. An embarrassing loss to South Carolina on the road, and a close loss (5 points) to Virginia Tech for the ACC crown. Clemson is 8-5 SU this season, and 8-5 ATS, and 5-3 ATS over their last 8 games.

And taking a decent ACC team over an SEC opponent hasn’t made much sense, but that’s the direction I’m going. Clemson has a solid rushing attack, and when they out-rush opponents, they usually win. Kentucky has been out-rushed 5 times in the last 10 games, they’ve lost 4 of those contests. I think Clemson’s D-line can stifle Kentucky’s rush attack, and that will allow the Tigers to run the show.

Kentucky Wildcats VS Clemson Tigers (-7)

St. Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals NFL Week 16 Picks

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St. Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals NFL Week 16 Picks: First and foremost, 15.5 points is quite the freaking mountain to climb in the NFL. Remember when your grandpa used to tell you he had to walk five miles to school, uphill both ways? That’s kind of like a 15 point spread. Now, with an offense as explosive as Arizona’s, it might just be uphill one way, but when that offense hasn’t been all that efficient down the stretch, we’re getting dangerously close to that impossible uphill both way scenario.

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The Rams can run the ball, that’s another hill the Cardinals will have to climb. Steven Jackson hasn’t been feeling his best, but the guy is amazing. Despite every defense doing everything they can to make St. Louis want to throw the ball, he’s still getting close to 100 yards every game and going work against the NFL’s best. After Arizona gave up and gaggle of yards last week to the freaking Detroit Lions, I have a feeling the Rams will be doing their best to exploit the Cardinals again this week.

And now for the kicker, I don’t see any reason for the Cardinals to play their key guys very long, or give that much effort to win these meaningless games. I mean, sure, they could play a little harder down the stretch, hope to be a high enough seed to be the NFC home team if the best teams get upset throughout the playoffs, but seeing how last year’s slow finish to the regular season had absolutely no effect on their post-season success, I don’t know why they’d risk injury to guys like Kurt Warner in games that will mean nothing.

All things considered, this is Lucky Lester saying, “uphill both ways sucks”.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals:

Arses Five Favorites: Week 16 NFL Preview

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Ugh, I lost 4 games for the second week in a row, bringing me to 14-11 over five weeks of free picks. From what I hear, that’s not too bad, but still, it’s bean feast or fart for me in five weeks of picks, two weeks with 4 wins or more, two weeks with a single win, and that one 3-2 week. Anyway, I have to keep rolling, just two more weeks to go, and I like some favorites the public doesn’t seem too fond of and see a couple big public favorites that look good to me as well. Here’s my top 5 favorites for Week 16…

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Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) @ home VS Buffalo: The Bills aren’t explosive enough offensively to stick with Atlanta. Sure, Michael Turner will likely be out again, but Matt Ryan is back, and an Atlanta team taking more chances with receivers like Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White might be a good thing. The Falcons are 5-2 at home – only 40% of the public likes them – count me in that 40%.

Green Bay (-14) @ home VS Seattle: This game is a bit of a joke. The Packers have been playing very aggressively all year offensively, and most of the year defensively. The Hawks are as soft as room temp butter. 35-13.

Dolphins (-3) @ home VS Texans: The Dolphins are solid at home, and they are just more consistent than Houston because of their strong offensive line and efficient rushing attack. Houston is sexier, sure, but Miami can just get it done.

Patriots (-7.5) @ home VS Jacksonville: Please. The Jaguars give choke artists a bad name. Tom Brady isn’t going to keep throwing incomplete passes all the way into the playoffs, I promise, the guy is going to turn it around, why not against a Jaguars secondary that has trouble stopping themselves. And don’t even get me started on Jacksonville’s offense. Does Del-Rio know their best player needs to touch the ball more? Answer, last week, yes, this week? Nope!

Eagles (-7) @ home VS Denver: The Broncos defense has struggled against elite passing attacks, losing and failing to cover against Indy, San Diego, and Pittsburgh so far this season. And to make me hate their chances even more, they lost to the freaking Raiders last week, with their old starter, new #3 QB, JaMarcus Russell, leading the Raiders to victory. C’mon Man!!!

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Free Football Picks

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I had the Steelers to win last week, and while they definitely played better football, and pulled out a win like magicians pull rabbits, they hardly deserved to walk away with victory after giving up 36 points to the Packers. But they did, they got me a win, got themselves a win for the first time in 6 weeks, and set themselves up for another loss to the Ravens.

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You don’t follow? That’s fair, and maybe my reasoning is crazy, but it is what it is and since this is my site, I will happily share my crazy, “this is why the Steelers will lose to Baltimore despite playing at home after winning an emotional game last week” theory. Whew, I need to think of a better name for that theory. Too long.

The Steelers lost 5 games in a row, eliminating themselves from playoff contention, finding blame for each other along the way, going through some tough stuff as a team, and losing a little bit of that Steeler flash and aggressiveness that had become second nature to their team. And while they seemingly had nothing to play for last week, losing 5 straight games played enough of a role to keep them motivated. But since winning last week, and getting that win less in a row monkey off their back, plus barely eeking that game out, and now playing against a Baltimore team that smells the playoffs, I don’t see that same motivation sticking around.

There it is, I hope it makes enough sense to follow.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction: New Orleans is awesome and it’s claimed they’ll be starting and playing their best players exclusively, not slowing their offense down over the last two weeks despite having home field locked up throughout the NFC playoffs, aka, the part of the playoffs that is actually important to have home field advantage in – because, well, home team advantage matters not in the Super Bowl, unless you think the team that wears white has a better chance to win. In which case you are a donkey.

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Despite New Orleans being awesome, and their coach claiming they would be going gung-ho for victory, I have a feeling the Saints won’t go all out in this one. If they game has proven a good enough tune-up by halftime, I think the Saints do begin to rest players. With that in their head, and the feeling they have after finally losing a game last week, I actually think the Bucs at +15 are a fine bet.

Tampa can be very streaky, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have a freshman project quarterback running their offense, a freshman youthful coach running their sideline, and an entire team full of youngins. But streaky isn’t such a bad thing against the Saints, a team that has shown an ability (or knack) for playing down to their opponents. 15 is a lot of points for a Saints team with absolutely nothing to gain from playing all out in this one. The Bucs are too young to think about all they don’t have to play for, so I like them to cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Free Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Free Pick: It’s hard to lose faith in a team, but it’s happened. It takes me more weeks than most, but Tom Brady’s second half woes, the Patriots general effortless (not in a good way) play in the second half, and the teams inability to get the ball in the end zone, has me at a loss for faith. Yes, I no longer believe in my old saying, “Tom can cover anything, anywhere,” and hey, it happens to every team sooner or later.

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New England just hasn’t been able to score, and while they are still winning, and still close to a lock for the playoffs, their inability to put the ball in the end zone, teaming with the oddsmakers continuing to handicap them as if they are the Patriots of the record breaking offense during the undefeated regular season, makes them a fade right now. At least in my book they are.

Listen, you all know what I think of the Jaguars, not much. They don’t go about their business very well, they don’t run the ball as much as they should, and most of the time they underuse their best player, but this is still a team that can put up points. And despite their defensive woes, they can step up their attack in big games. There won’t be a bigger game for Jacksonville than this. Their season is on the line, and while I think the line ends this week in New England (where the Pats are undefeated this season) I still think it’s closer than 9 points. The Pats have found a way to win ugly, and I expect mediocre play from them yet again.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants ATS Pick & Preview

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Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants ATS Pick & Preview: Maybe the Panthers are better than I give them credit for. Maybe there’s something to be said for a team as poorly coached and with as crappy quarterback play as they’ve gotten that can still manage a 6-8 record with a 7-7 ATS mark through 14 games. Maybe that secondary that has shut down opposing passing attacks is in fact pretty damn good, and not just lucky. Maybe. But I still don’t think so. Maybe I’m stubborn. Maybe I’m downright overconfident in my ability to accurately judge any given NFL team. Whatever it is, I certainly don’t believe in the Panthers.

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New York has climbed right back into the playoff race with 3 wins in their last 5 games, beating Atlanta, Dallas, and Washington to get to 8-6 with two to go. And right now, they control their own playoff destiny. Like good teams have done in the past, the Giants are playing some of their best football of the season. After losing 4 straight in the middle of the year, New York has started running the ball better and playing better defensively as well. They are still dealing with a lot of injuries, especially in the secondary, but if there’s one team that will have plenty of trouble taking advantage of that dinged up pass-defense, it’s the Panthers.

Listen, it’s nice to see somebody else throwing balls in Carolina, but Matt Moore is an interception waiting to happen, or five. He’s been pretty lucky thus far, but eventually, he’s going to get it for the decisions he makes. Why not this week?

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7)