Texas A&M vs Georgia Bulldogs: Independence Bowl Pick

The public percentage on this is pretty much even, but I like the Bulldogs to win by double digits. I know Georgia’s defense hasn’t been what it was in the past, but A&M gives up massive amounts of points like it’s their job. In recent losses to Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas, the Aggies have given up 35 points, 65 points, and 49 points (dis)respectively.

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The Aggies are 6-6 SU this season, 6-5-1 ATS, and 8-4 O/U. They average 33.9 points per game while giving up 32.7. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, and 6 of their last 9 to just barely squeak into the Bowl season. Quarterback Jerod Johnson has 28 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions, as his stellar offensive leadership has led the Aggies to the post season despite their porous defense.

The Bulldogs are 7-5 SU this season, but just 4-8 ATS, having a tough times with the teams they were supposed to beat easily. They were 5-6-1 O/U this season. But the Bulldogs have won 3 of their last 4, and seem to be playing their best football of the season. In all four of their final games, Georgia out-gained their opponent on the ground, setting up a nice offensive game plan. They beat both Auburn and Georgia Tech down the stretch, and their single loss in those last 4 games was against Florida.

Recently, Georgia has shown me the offensive firepower that suggests they won’t be out-scored by A&M which means the Aggies will have to stop the Bulldogs a few times if they want to take home the prize. I’m not sure they can do that, so I’m going the other way.

Texas A&M Aggies @ Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5)

Texas Longhorns vs Texas A&M Aggies Week 13 Free Pick

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Texas Longhorns (-22.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies Week 13 Free Pick: Like I said in my newsletter, Texas has won their last 5 games by at least 25 points. Why not make it 6?” Listen, there are lots of reason, historical reasons, rivalry reasons, to like the Aggies here, and so far the spread has resembled that sediment. The spread has shot down a very important 1.5 points since I made my selection, all the way down to 21, a nice 3-touchdown number. That scares me a little, the books obviously wanted some more money coming in on the road favorites – but I can’t be worried too much about what the books want.

Lets look at some reasons why my pick is scary. One – this spread has rarely been this big, only twice in the last ten seasons. Two – it’s a rivalry game. It may be a rivalry recently dominated by the Longhorns, but 7 of the last 10 doesn’t look as good when you see that the Aggies have upset Texas twice in the last three seasons. Also, the Aggies covered three straight going into last years’ game.

But that’s history, maybe not ancient history, but history nonetheless. The Longhorns probably haven’t played many games up to their par this season, but don’t look past their lat 5 wins by at least 27 points. Sure, they started off the season slow in terms of dominant wins, but five in a row in the high twenties or more? I have to like their chances to continue the run. Plus, the Aggies have been destroyed by “good” teams, OK State, Arkansas, and Oklahoma (none as good as Texas) all won their games by 27+ points over the Aggies. The Longhorns shall be #4.