Week 3 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Week 3 was another downer, but there were some good calls out there, some sure things that ended up working out, just too many bad bounces and disappointing lines to make me a happy man. And how about pushes? I can’t stand the damn things. 3-5-1 doesn’t win you any money does it? Stay tuned for a winner in Week 4.

Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens: (win)

It took a little magic from the Old Kurt Warner, but in the end, the Cardinals covered with ease. In fact, after being way down, Arizona came back to tie it, and the Ravens needed a very bad unnecessary roughness penalty to get into field goal range. From there, it was all Matt Stover, and a win for the Ravens. But, the Cardinals continue to show they won’t quit, and they could figure it all out and be a force in the NFC West this season.

Buffalo Bills (+17) @ New England Patriots: (loss)

“I’ve thought long and hard about this one, a testament to how good the Patriots really are. But I’ve come to the conclusion that Vegas was sick of the Patriots covering every spread they threw at them, so they decided to throw this wrench in on gamblers.” Well, I should have bought into this action, knowing that the difference between the Patriots and Bills is similar to the Florida Gators and Temple Owls. I couldn’t take a 17 point spread, and I hope I don’t have to bet against the Patriots again, but hell, 17 points – I guess I should stick to my new philosophy, always bet on the Patriots.

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6): (win)

“I guess I’m still expecting the real Eagles to come out and throw the ball around and dominate a football game. The Lions and their playoff guarantee are coming to town, so I think this is the perfect time for McNabb to snap out of his funk. There is no secondary in football that has more wide open spaces in it than the one from Detroit. Look for McNabb to bust the 300 yard mark in this one as the Eagles finally get a win.” Well, I didn’t say that the Eagles would put up 56, but I did say they would get a win, and that McNabb would look good against the Lions secondary. Don’t say that nobody predicted his big day, it was coming, and I got it on the nose.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3.5): (loss)

Look back at my picks to see how bad I got this one wrong. The Jaguars looked like playoff material, dominating the Broncos, and believe me, the score was a lot closer than the game looked. Travis Henry couldn’t find room, and the Jaguars young secondary looked much better than Weeks 1 and 2. I was wrong, yeah, I’ll own it.

Miami Dolphins @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5): (loss)

“The Jets are the better team of the two. Trent Green isn’t a good quarterback anymore, and the Dolphins running attack isn’t even close to what Cam Cameron was hoping to install early in his head coaching career.” Well, I got the first two right on the button. The third, well, that kept the Dolphins around just enough to cover. I hope you all pushed, because this line was down to 3 by the start of the game. I lost, and now I’m crying about it. I hate half point losses.

San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (loss)

“The 49ers have enough talent to play with any team in the league.” And they did, through 3 quarters. The Niners really bit the dust donw the stretch, and Alex Smith, who looked good in the pre-season, looked bad once again. The Steeler’s defense was too good to let the 49ers mount any type of comeback, and Pittsburgh put up 20 4th quarter points to cover easily. Remember, I was looking like a smart man when the Steelers were up 8 after 3 quarters. Then those Niners made me look bad. Dang Niners.

St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): (win)

Steven Jackson got over the 100 yard mark, but he needed 30 carries to do so, and the Rams were pretty much out of this game by half time. Marc Bulger looked just as bad as Drew Brees did on Monday Night Football, well not that bad, but bad – and the Rams look like the really bad team that they were in about 4 separate weeks last season. I’m interested to see which team will step out of their crap hole first, the Rams or the Saints – both have lots of problems. No doubt about that.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3): (push)

A push – Yee… Haw! The Hawks beat the Bengals, I should get a point for that, right? No, nice, I’ll just take a fat tie, with everything resting on the Saints going in to Monday Night Football. Uh oh.

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints (-4): (loss)

“I like the Saints to come back from down in the dumps on Monday Night Football. New Orleans has played very poorly this season, losing all momentum from a year ago. So now its up to them to get things going again, and from the looks of it, that’s when the Saints are at there best. Vince Young is great, (and a spread killer by the way – so watch out for this one) but I don’t think he’s a good enough passer to fully take advantage of the Saints problematic secondary,” (Me) I was right about some things and wrong about others, the problem is, I was wrong about the pick – which makes me just wrong. I was definitely wrong about the Saints being at their best – I’m not sure when that is supposed to happen, but it doesn’t look good. I was right that they’ve played poorly, and that you should watch out for this one because Vince Young is a spread killer (he has 2 ATS losses in his pro career). I was also wrong that Vince isn’t a polished enough passer to take advantage of the Saints defensive secondary. Actually, who cares, the could have throw twice and won this game. The Saints can’t tackle, and thus they lose. What can I say? Don’t expect a team to morph into something they aren’t. Write that down.

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