Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5): This game started out as a 6.5 point spread favoring the Bengals, and I think that was more accurate in terms of value. Now I’m not sure 2 points will make all the difference, but I’d rather see a 4.5 point fave than a touchdown favorite, at least when I’m taking the home favorite. The Bengals have shown a lot of toughness in the first few weeks of the season. Seemingly down and out in each contest, they’ve fought to get 4 wins in 5 chances, their only loss coming on the Week 1 Hail Mary caught by Brandon Stokely. 65% of the public like the Bengals, but the early money came in on the Texans. 3 of the Bengals wins were certainly worthy, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and their latest W came against the Ravens. Those are 3 solid teams. The Texans have played decent football on the road this season, but I think that trend fails to continue. The Bengals have the rushing attack to punish the Texans while Carson Palmer certainly has the arm, and weapons, to punish Houston for stacking the line of scrimmage. I like the Bengals a lot!
Tag Archives: Week 6 NFL Picks
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers NFL Pick
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13): The Packers coming off a bye week preparing for a Lions team that has a list of injured players you couldn’t count using just your fingers (who can count past their fingers these days anyway?) – It’s hard not to be all gung-ho about the Packers chances at winning by a couple touchdowns. But the Lions have been decent in some games this season. They got kicked around by the Saints in Week 1, sure, but they fought and battled tough in their last 4 games, giving the Vikings, Redskins, Bears, and Steelers all they could handle (in fact, they gave the Redskins more than they could handle). You look at the scores, and Pittsburgh was the first time the Lions lost by less than double digits this season, and even that took a late touchdown strike from Daunte Culpepper. But the injuries are mounting, and while I don’t like going against a double digit dog, especially one that plays better on the road, it’s too hard to look past the 4 starting defensive players that are questionable, the best player on their team is also questionable (Calvin Johnson), and their running game hasn’t been good against anybody so far this season. What does that tell me? If I’m leaning one way, I’m taking the Packers coming off a bye week.
St. Louis Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free Pick
St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Now lets start with some interesting statistics this year. The Rams have lost every game by double digits, besides their 2 point loss to the Washington Redskins, and lets be honest, that really doesn’t count. That being said, they have played some pretty damn good teams, the Seahawks in Week 1 had Matt Hasselbeck, and everyone has seen how different they are with him at the helm. Week 3, 4, and 5 saw Green Bay, San Francisco, and Minnesota meet up with the Rams, and the outcomes weren’t pretty. I mean, they’ve managed just 34 points through 5 games, even the Browns think that’s terrible. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a very up and down team. They played the Colts tough in Week 1, losing 14-12 to Peyton and company. They then got thrown around in Jacksonville by the Cardinals, 31-17, and to be honest it wasn’t that close. Two straight wins to even up their record (taking down the Texans and Titans) got them some respect before Seattle came back to destroy any of that by beating them 41-0. That score isn’t a misprint. I’ve missed on the Jaguars a lot this year, but I still don’t think they deserved to be favored by 10 points against anybody. The Rams are getting healthy, as they should have the healthiest offense they’ve had all year. If they commit to the run, and I think they will, they have a chance to cover agaisnt the Jaguars. They are the worst team in football, but I haven’t liked what I’ve heard out of Jacksonville this week. Turmoil isn’t good when you’re about to play a game that’s difficult to get up for in the first place. It might be a one time thing, but I’m taking St. Louis.
Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings Football Pick
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: This is one of the biggest games of the week, two teams that have played extremely well to start the season. The Ravens come in 3-2 (after losing in the final seconds to the Bengals a week after losing to the Patriots in New England) while Minnesota has walked through a relatively weak schedule all the way to 5-0 (Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis hardly belong in the NFL). And yes, the Brett Favre experiment seems to be working just fine. The decent teams Minnesota has faced kept things close, as Brett Favre needed his miracle toss with a second left to beat the 49ers, and Green Bay’s late rally fell short despite shutting down Adrian Peterson and that feared Viking rushing attack. The Ravens haven’t been as stingy on defense, and Joe Flacco has struggled a bit in the last two contests, but you’d have to say Baltimore is easily the Vikings’ toughest task yet. With that being what it is, I’m taking the Ravens here. The 49ers and Ravens are very similar teams, the difference being Baltimore should be healthier than San Fran was in their game against the Vikings. The 49ers should have won that game, and Baltimore should win this game. We’ll see if Should turns into a win this time.