Tag Archives: Free Gambling Advice

Navy Midshipmen vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick

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Navy Midshipmen @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11) Free Pick: I normally don’t think much of Notre Dame’s chances to cover double digit spreads. They play heaps of close games, are greatly overrated, and spend way too much time throwing the ball, which, if you’ve noticed, is a good way not to cover spreads against lesser teams. Now, Navy is a run-centered team, they hardly ever throw the ball and use the ground and pound style to shorten the game and get tough yards. That’s good for covering double digit spreads as well.

However, I’m taking Notre Dame. They are the better team, and have a passing attack unlike anything Navy has had to go against this season. But the main reason I’m taking the Irish here is that Navy’s starting quarterback, Ricky Dobbs, though listed as probable for Saturday’s contest against the Irish, will not be 100%. In Navy’s last game, Dobbs went down early and couldn’t finish the game, giving way to Dayne Crist (who played well) in their loss to Temple. Without Dobbs at 100%, the chances of Navy pulling the upset definitely dwindle.

Throughout their 6 wins so far this season, only against Washington State and Nevada did the Irish win by double digits. That’s amazing, I know, especially when you consider their prolific offense and elite talent, but they haven’t been able to stop many people. I think their defense steps up against Navy, and their offense pours it on.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAA Pick

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Illinois Illini (+7) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAA Pick: Once again, I love these late season games where 2-6 teams that have struggled but are still better than 5-4 teams finally get a chance to try and make things right. I’m a strong believer that when Illinois travels to Minnesota to play the Gophers, that’s exactly the type of game they’ll be playing.

Illinois has stunk this year, no doubt about it. But despite their stinking, they had lost 3 games by two touchdowns or less before beating the piss out of Michigan last week, 38-13. That was their second straight win against the spread, and probably the first game they played up to their talent level. They’ve certainly had a pretty tough schedule to start the season, about as tough as Big 10 opening schedules go – playing Missouri, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, a talented Indiana team, and Purdue – then Michigan. I’m not crazy about the Big 10, but aside from also playing Iowa, that’s about as tough a schedule as a Big 10 team can have.

Minnesota just got done beating Michigan State at home last week, and they’ve played pretty good football in Minnesota. They are 3-2, but a close loss to Wisconsin was a good showing, and it was a 21-21 tie with Cal until the Bears broke the tie with 7 minutes left in the 4th. So, they’re comfortable on the road.

The road team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two schools. Despite the fact that Minnesota has covered in 4 of the last 5 and won outright in all four of those games, I’m taking Illinois to continue playing good football. They have the talent…

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Pick: I normally don’t even like thinking about Green Bay as a big favorite, they just don’t commit to running the ball enough to be a sure thing as a big favorite -but this Bucs team, they make the whole process a lot easier. I do think Tampa Bay can find some running room against the Packers run defense, especially if Green Bay comes in thinking they are going to win because they are better. But a tough loss to Brett Favre and the Vikings should be enough to sober them up for a big performance against a Bucs team that really shouldn’t compete.

The Packers have shown more of a commitment to the run against bad teams. Maybe they feel like they have time to score, and thus they don’t rush the big plays as much, and Grant gets to pound away at lesser defenses. If the Packers continue that trend, and I have to think they will, this should be an easy cover.

The Packers have an aggressive defense and Tampa Bay is starting their first round quarterback for the first time. The Packers have aggressive corners that should test Josh Freeman’s confidence early and often. A couple mistakes by the Bucs, and this thing can turn into a blowout in a hurry. 76% of the public likes Green Bay, yet the line moved away from it’s opening -10. That’s always something that makes me wary. Still, I have to go with the Pack here, it’s their side or no side at all.

Kansas Jayhawks vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction

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Kansas Jayhawks (-3) @ Kansas State Wildcats Prediction: The Jayhawks are the better team. I truly believe that, and that’s really the key to this pick for me. Besides that, I don’t see them losing four straight. They’ve just lost three straight, two of which were to pretty dang good teams in Oklahoma and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks have lost 5 straight games against the spread. Kansas State has played pretty well over the last 3 weeks, beating the piss out of Texas A&M before beating Colorado, and then losing by just 12 to Oklahoma when they were a 28 point underdog. But I see things evening out, because in the end, Kansas is the better team.

The Jayhawks have owned this series over the last 5 years, winning 4 of 5 games and covering at the same rate. The Jayhawks have been greatly out-rushed by the Wildcats over the last three years, but that hasn’t seemed to bother them. Defensively they capitalize on mistakes, and the Wildcat passing game is prone to those exact things.

64% of the gambling public agrees with me, they’re taking Kansas. Not the greatest feeling when you’re betting on a team that has lost 5 straight against the spread yet they’re still getting public love, but it is what it is. Star Kansas QB, Todd Reesing was benched in the 4th quarter of a close game last week at Texas Tech. But he’ll be back in the line-up this week, and I think that benching improves the entire team. They seem to love their QB, and I expect them to have better effort to help him stay in the game.

Oregon Ducks vs Stanford Cardinal NCAA Pick & Preview

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Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal (+5.5) NCAA Pick & Preview: Stanford is one of the best teams in the Nation that nobody knows about. What does that mean to you? It means they are a great bet. They’ve had a couple tough losses over the last three games, going just 1-2 during that stretch. But this spread is not right. First of all, it’s even better (for Stanford side) now than it was when I made the pick. The Cardinal are now getting a full touchdown at home. They are a physical team that matches up well with Oregon, and the Ducks are just coming off a huge emotional high after upsetting the Trojans (though it was hardly an upset, they’re better than USC).

Regardless, the value is in Stanford’s corner. Andrew Luck is a very good quarterback that nobody knows. The Cardinal have a very physical offense line that should give Oregon’s defense lots of trouble. Both these teams run the ball very well, Stanford doesn’t have as many big plays, but they get first downs, shorten games, and end up on top more often than not. Like I said, they’ve struggled a bit over their last few games, but this is a good team that has a lot to prove as big home dogs to the Ducks.

The Cardinal are undefeated at home this season, and seem to really flourish with their home crowd behind them. Oregon is good, no doubt, but expect a let down a week after the SC win. Oregon has won 7 straight games against Stanford, and a lot of those weren’t close. All these things will weigh in, and I think that favors Stanford here.

Washington Huskies vs UCLA Bruins Free NCAA Pick

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Washington Huskies (+4.5) @ UCLA Bruins Free NCAA Pick: The public actually slightly likes Washington in this one, and that kind of surprises me, but I’m proud of them, maybe they see what I see. I see that UCLA has a pretty good defense, but they can’t get anything working on offense. They have quarterbacks that can’t seem to step into any throws, and a rushing attack that doesn’t produce much. They’ve been out-rushed in each of their last 5 games, all losses. Washington can play with any team that can’t efficiently run the ball, or won’t commit to running the ball early and often, and in all those cases they are a good bet to cover.

Both teams are 3-5 coming into this game, and a loss here, for either team, makes a bowl game improbably if not impossible. The Huskies have some things working against them: away from that very loud home crowd, they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8. Also, the Huskies are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against UCLA. But the Bruins have some bad shine as well, they are just 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games against teams with losing records. They have trouble beating up on, or just beating in general, teams that they are supposed to beat.

The Huskies have a long list of injuries that includes one of their best defensive players (LB, E.J. Savannah) and their best player on the team (QB, Jake Locker), but Jake is expected to play, but E.J. is not. Most of the players are listed as questionable, but from what I here are expected to be okay by game time. Washington hasn’t played since October 24th, after getting last week off, and should be well prepared for the Bruins.

Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears Football Prediction

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Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Chicago Bears Football Prediction: I think Arizona’s the better team, but more-so I think Chicago is at the wrong side of a tough match-up in this one. The Bears struggle against accurate passers, they struggle against teams that stop the run, and when they can’t run the ball with ease, they make mistakes that really kill them. I know, the story of Jay Cutler’s life.

Now, I think this could be a close game, but Arizona’s chances of winning this thing are pretty good. The Bears don’t really eliminate anything Arizona does, so the Cardinals should dictate the flow of the game. That’s bad news for Bears fans. Usually, the fact that Arizona is traveling eastward would be bad news for their chances, but as it seems, pulling off multiple road upsets on their way to the Super Bowl had done wonders for their road confidence. They are 3-0 away from home this season, dominating at Jacksonville, Seattle, and ousting the Giants in New York. Those last two are tough places to play, too.

These two teams don’t have much of a recent history, in fact, I don’t think Kurt Warner has played the Bears while in a Cardinal uniform. I do know that Chicago has struggled against solid passing attacks, losing to Green Bay, Atlanta, and Cincinnati so far this season. 3 of their 4 wins also don’t impress me much – we’re talking Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland here. Beating Pittsburgh was a good win, definitely, so the talent is obviously there.

What it comes down to is match-ups and the Cardinals get the nod in a lot of key areas. I’ll take them to continue their undefeated road record in 2009, at least against the spread.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Preview, Pick

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Miami Dolphins (+11) @ New England Patriots Preview, Pick: Again, I just don’t think you can go against good football teams and double digit points. The Dolphins may be 3-4, but hey, they are a good football team. They can stuff the run, and if anything, they can really run the ball well offensively. They play sound football, get tough yardage, and use that dreaded and famed Wildcat offense to chew up the clock, shorten games, and keep elite offenses off the field. That’s a covering dream right there. Then you give them double digit points? Come on, this is too easy right?

The Pats opened as 12 point favorites, early bets on Miami moved that down to 11 and the small majority of public bets seem to like Miami enough to keep this thing moving down, if you like the Patriots, you can get them -10.5 at some books. But Miami with double digits looks good to me. The Dolphins may be 3-4, but they’ve lost just two games by double digits, a game they freakishly failed to cover in when the Saints returned a late interception for a touchdown after an improbably comeback, and their opening 7-19 loss to Atlanta. They’ve won 3 of their last 4, including two wins against the Jets. They’ve been running wild, and first year starter Chad Henne has proven he can make any throw on the field, making defenses prepare for that for the first time in a long time when facing the Dolphins.

The road team has taken this game in 5 of the last 8 contests. Miami broke out the wildcat to dominate the Patriots in New England early last season. This game has hit the over in 3 of the lat 4 meetings, and Dolphins have busted the over in each of their last 4. I like this one to stay close, and 11 points looks sexy, even against Tom himself.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Free NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals Free NFL Pick: Last time out the Bengals beat the Ravens in Baltimore, pulling a pretty nice upset both against the spread and straight up. The Bengals have had a week off to relax and ponder how easy it was beating up on the Bears. Palmer tossed 4 touchdown passes and Cedric Benson ran wild against his former team as Cincinnati steamrolled the Bears. The Ravens aren’t coming off a bye, but they are coming off a 30-7 win over the previously undefeated Denver Broncos last week. In that game they seemingly got their pass defense in a good place.

The Ravens have struggled against teams that can really throw it, giving up 436 yards to Phillip Rivers in a close win over the Chargers, and 3 touchdown passes by Brett Favre in a close loss to Minnesota. Carson Palmer also diced them up for 270+ yards last time out.But like I said, they looked good against the pass last week.

But here’s the deal, and it’s a situation I take very much to heart when picking games over the second half of any given NFL season; Unless there is some sort of extreme mismatch between two good football teams, the chances of a split are pretty good.

I think these two teams are very similar. The Ravens are probably even a little bit better. This game means a lot to the Ravens, sitting at 4-3 and 3rd place in the AFC North, behind the Bengals and Steelers. The Bengals aren’t going to lay down, but I think a lot of the Ravens, and a split with the Bengals looks like a good bet to me.

Washington Redskins vs Atlanta Falcons Football Pick

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Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-10): Here’s the deal, and I want to be very clear on this, I wouldn’t bet much on this game, and I won’t, if I do at all. Why you might ask? Anyone can see that the Redskins are struggling mightily with more things than anyone can count.

Offensively they just can’t score points, and defensively they give up big plays and despite playing pretty stout during stretches, they are consistently put in a bad place by their bad offense. Then there’s the coaching troubles, the questions in the organization, and how just recently the owner of the team publicly discussed his disappointment with the players, saying that they have “let everybody down” and I’m sure even more will come out about team-dysfunctional before the game kicks off in Atlanta – but this is a trap game for the Falcons if I’ve ever seen one, and defensively the Redskins have the talent to shut down the run and make some big plays if the Falcons aren’t focused.

The Falcons just came off a game against the Saints on Monday Night where they played very well against one of the league’s best teams, and if they walked away from that game feeling like they can play and compete against the best, a moral victory of sorts, then they might be in for a battle against the Redskins. A week off for Washington might have been enough to get their offense on the right page with the new play-caller.

Listen, I know what I see, and I see a beat and battered Redskins team flying into Atlanta this Sunday. But this one worries me a bit, just an eerie feeling I guess, one that will keep my risking just a little if any. With my Falcons pick, I’m warning you.