Week 16 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I was just 4-5 in my free picks for Week 16, but still finished well on the day, going 5-3 with my elite picks. I’m going to need to do this differently next year, selling my best picks and putting up my bottom half as free has been tough on my psyche – but anyway, this is where I won and loss on Sunday.

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Rams started off right, but couldn’t hold it in against the Steelers. I am officially brutal on Thursday Night games since my Thanks Giving Day wins… The Steelers are looking bad, and while I do expect them to win in Week 17, I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t win another game this season. With Willie Parker out, the pressure will be all over Big Ben.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Panthers made this a game while TO tumbled down with an ankle injury midway through the game. Dallas hasn’t impressed me much lately, and even though they won, I don’t think they’ll be taking any late season momentum with them into the playoffs. They do get a 1st round bye, however, and have plenty of talent to do damage in the 2nd Round after their bye.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I can’t believe the Browns didn’t play tougher with the playoffs on the line. The Bengals came out and got as much revenge as they possibly could by almost completely knocking the Browns out of the playoffs as they spilt their season series with the Browns with a 19-14 win. Derek Anderson, who was great all year, threw 4 interceptions when his team needed him most. And I lost another free-pick. Blast.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

The Packers played absolutely terribly, and the Bears capitalized on every mistake that came their way. I think Chicago will regroup over the summer and come out ready to be a playoff team again in 2008-09. They have enough playmakers to make things work on defense, and offensively, they’re just a kick in the butt away from being decent.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5) win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

This was one of my best bets of the week, and it shows – it was one of my few wins in my free-picks section. The Jaguars just bulldogged the Jaguars to the tune of 49 points…. The Raiders milked 11 points from the Jaguars defense, and this was one of the most lopsided games of the season. Watch out for these Jaguars in the playoffs – not next week.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Giants played well and took down the Bills. I really can’t figure out the Giants, all I know is that they need to run the ball more and cut down on younger Manning’s throws, because he is inaccurate and inconsistent – he’s in-just about everything – to be honest. The Giants’ defense has been the one saving grace for this team all season long.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts put up 38 points over the first 3 quarters, and honestly, the Texans just came to Indiana on the wrong day. Indy was on fire in the first half, actually putting up 21 in the 2nd quarter alone. Peyton looks to be getting his touch back, something the Colts will desperately need if they are to win just one playoff game this season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions didn’t look good, but they won by 5, which if you add the two and carry the decimal three times, is just enough to make me a winner. ON this tough weekend, I needed anything I could get. I got a win. I still hate Mike Martz. He’ll be somewhere else in 2008, good thing for Roy Williams fans, because Martz decided he didn’t even want to use the guy after the first 5 weeks.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?): win

The Hawks finally dominanted, and I would have taken this spread easily. The Ravens are terrible, decent, then terrible again. I don’t care what the Ravens’ brass continues to say about coach Billick – that guy will be looking for a new job no later than the first 4 games of next season, maybe even this year.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9): win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers rubbed it in a little bit against the Broncos, so expect fireworks from these two teams next season. Champ Bailey talked some mess about Phillip Rivers after the game, and it’s not like that’s hard, the kid from NC State is throwing swollen marshmallow ducklings all over the field lately. The Broncos still couldn’t do much as LT and his backups shredded a piss-poor defense from Denver.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 16

16, and after a devastating Week 15, I have a muddy hill to climb to get back up and rolling. But there’s time, I just have to figure out who’s playing and who’s resting for the playoffs, or the off-season. There are some interesting dilemmas going into the week – this is how it looks from the LL highchair…

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I kind of like the Money Line in St. Louis with the Rams. This has the feeling of one of those games for me. The Steelers have to think they’re going to go into St. Louis and correct some of the things that has them tumbling down the stretch, especially against a Rams team that has nothing to play for. Well, the Rams can be tough, and especially against a secondary that is allowing passing touchdowns like grocery stores give away turkeys three days after Thanks Giving. Tory Holt and the Rams receiving crew can put up some points, and don’t expect the Steelers to just click it back on away from Pittsburgh. They aren’t a good away team, and the pressure is building on these underachievers. I know the Rams have nothing to play for, but sometimes that helps, and though I’ve been bad with my Thursday Night NFL Network games, I think I might be on to something with this one.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Cowboys have to come back strong after their pathetic outing last week against the Eagles – and the Panthers have to meander back to terrible after beating the Hawks in Carolina last week. Too much ups and downs last week for things not to get back to the way they should be with a big Dallas victory over Matt Moore and the Panthers. This game feels too easy.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Bengals are lost. I won’t put all the money in the world on this game, only because the Browns kind of embarrassed the Bengals defense last time these two saw each other, and Cinci will come out playing tough because of that. But in the end, I still think the Bengals don’t have enough consistency on offense, and that will be their undoing at home against the Brownies.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

I want to take the Bears in Chicago as a team trying to prove a point, but their season is over and the Packers could have everything (#1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs) working for them if they win this game and the right pieces fall into place. Of course, that would mean that the Cowboys lost in Carolina (highly unlikely) but if that happens on Saturday, this is a nobrainer bet on Sunday. Right now, I wouldn’t make a huge play on this game. However, since I have to make my picks early in the week, taking the Packers here when games still matter for them, over a team that accounts for one of their two losses, seems like a good bet. As a common rule, it’s usually smart to take a good team over another team that they lost to earlier in the year.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

I also like the Over in Jacksonville, but think this should get out of hand right away. The Raiders won’t have their best running option in as Justin Fargas is out for the rest of the season. They will have yet another interesting quarterbacking situation that should allow the Jaguars to rest their starters after the 3rd quarter. That beings said, I think Kiffin and company will put up a couple scores, and the total is only 38.5. The Jags running backs might account for 4 scores all by their lonesome on Sunday. Big spread, but I like it this week in Jacksonville, especially because the Jaguars still need wins to be playing in Jacksonville during Week 1 of the post season.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Bills are better than the Giants. The Bills are the underdogs. The Bills are playing at home. The Giants have been playing terrible. The Bills are tough and the Giants aren’t. The Bills want to win, the Giants have Elmer Fudd playing quarterback. I don’t know if there’s anything else needed in this one. This seems like a great bet to me.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts didn’t seem to care much about winning last week, and I don’t think they’ll put out a full effort doing so this week, either. I don’t think the Colts will play their starters for much of the game, and that gives a distinct advantage to the Texans, even though they haven’t been the most consistent team lately. One thing they do have is they played the Colts tough earlier in the season, and they usually find away to put up a pretty good fight against their conference rival. I like the Texans and a big fat 9 from 5Dimes this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions have to turn it around in this game. The Chiefs have been pretty lackadaisical and the Lions play pretty solid football at home. Word on the street is that Larry Johnson might play, but I don’t see that as a start that would change this game any way or the other. Sure, LJ is a beast, but that offensive line isn’t strong enough to blow up a run defense, and the passing game in KC just doesn’t scare opposing defenses, which probably plays to the Lions strengths. I’m taking the Lions, even though there’s no shot they reach Jon Kitna’s prediction.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?):

At my due date, this game still doesn’t have an active line at any sportsbook that I know about. Therefore, I just won’t bet the game. I would take the Hawks straight up, but can’t really even get close to imagining what kind of line these guys are going to come up with in this game. I’m not sure what the game means to Seattle, but I’m also pretty sure that Troy Smith has a slower release, this is his second game ever, and he’s going up against one of the best secondaries in the league. Also, the Ravens offense just plain stinks. I expect Willis McGahee to get his fair share of touches in this game.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers are hitting pretty well on all cylinders right now, and I like their chances against a Broncos team that has really played like donkey poop all season long. I don’t know what happened to Shanny’s bunch this time around, but it looks pretty bad when Denver can’t even run the ball. The only chance they have is Brandon Marshall, and the Chargers’ Antonio Cromartie is just the physical freak of an athlete to match-up with Marshall. LT, Turner, Sproles and the Charger rushing attack should eat up the Broncos run defense, or lack there of. Seems like an easy pick, even with the big spread.

Week 15 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I don’t want to talk about it…

Thursday’s Game…

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

How bad are the Broncos? On Thursday, they were horrendous.

Saturday’s Game…

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) @ San Francisco 49ers: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

“The bottom line is, the Bengals are bad, but can they be this bad?” Let me replace my original answer to this question “I don’t think so” with “yes, and actually, they are even worse than this bad, they are brutal.”

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I’m going to blame this game on the snow. 8-0, it was close until the last minute, and obviously, the Bills always had a chance, they just couldn’t stop making snow angels during key plays – damn kids.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+10): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Can I blame this one on the snow? I felt smart when I saw the score nearing halftime in this one. Then I felt dumb when I saw the final tally.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

“The Jaguars are the better team. I saw a scouting site that already has a mock NFL draft ready to go, and they said the Jaguars are looking for a quarterback early – puh-lease! David Garrard is everything this team has every wanted, and everything they need for the future. He plays ball control offense, is smart, and takes care of the football. He is a threat to throw deep, hit outs, and run the ball if need be. He’s physical and fast. Perfect for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are just playing inspired football right now, and the Steelers have been brutal the last four games or so. They didn’t have a chance last week, and while they will play better at home, I still think they fall to the Jags this Sunday. This should be a close game, and I think it will come down to the wire, but I like the 4 points with one of the best teams in football.” Bingo – it’s nice to win one or two here and there.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-24): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I don’t think the Jets are good enough to finish anywhere close to the Patriots if Tom Brady doesn’t have one of his worst football games I can remember. He was wild, his timing was off, and he didn’t throw a touchdown pass. After Kellen Clemens threw a pick-6 with his first pass, I thought this was going to be one of those. I was wrong, tricked all the way, and the Pats stayed undefeated but lost ATS again.

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) @ Oakland Raiders: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I have to take the big away fa”vorite here, and I don’t like it all that much.” The Colts just didn’t show up. Their running game was bad, and there’s no excuse for that against the Raiders, a team that has been brutal against the run. I didn’t like this game much to start, and that was because I didn’t know if the Colts would show for this game. I’ll pick against them next week.

Philadelphia Eagles (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys: win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Thank you Brian Westbrook for being too smart for my fantasy team to win. Down on the half yard line, lost in a tie-breaker. Jerk. At least I won this game, that’s always a nice thing.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Dec 15

Semi-finals y’all – don’t get caught playing on the side court next week, get your good players in and celebrate your spot in the finals, and a sure money back chance with a nice cold 6 pack of Robitussin… Championship!

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

5 guys, 3 starting spots, who do you choose between these 4 stars – can start 2 RBs and 2WRs or 1 RB and 3 WRs – I’m already starting LT – not a PPR league. Travis Henry vs. Houston, Earnest Graham vs. Atlanta, Plaxico Burress vs. Washington, Roddy White vs. Tampa Bay, and Deion Branch vs. Carolina. Help? – Chicken Little from the Wood

Mr. Little, I’d start with Earnest Graham as a must start in that grouping. That pushes Travis Henry out, and while he could have a big game against the Texans, there’s also a chance that he doesn’t get enough touches, and thus doesn’t produce many points. Now you’re choosing between White, Branch, and Burress. I’d go with Plax, even though he’s always an injury problem and Eli Manning stinks, he’s still going up against a mediocre Redskins’ secondary and he’s the only guy who is tall enough to grab Eli’s passes. Tampa Bay is a tough match-up for the Falcons, but I think White is more of a sure thing to get 8-10 balls thrown his way in that game than Branch is in Carolina. The coaching change is interesting, because it was Patrino’s style that got White’s numbers flying. Branch is tough to predict, he has up and down games, and though he is going up against a porous secondary in Carolina, that doesn’t always mean big things from Seattle’s supposed #1. I’d say that is a toss up, and I’d take White because of his size and touchdown potential in a game that could see a lot of passing by the Falcons.

I have Jamal Lewis and Marshawn Lynch – they go head to head this weekend, and while I like the Browns to pull that one out, Lynch has to be the better option, right? – Paige White from Ohio

He doesn’t have to be, but yes, I think he is. The Bills have impressed me defensively, limiting most opponents’ rushing attack, and tackling well all season long. Lewis is not the crumbling-slow and injured back he’s been over the last two years, though, he’s be solid over the last few games, running like the Ja-Lewis of old. I just like Lynch against a pathetic Browns defense, but neither guy is a bad option this weekend. You’d think Lynch would get more and more carries after his injury, and while he split about 50-50 last week, he will probably get 75% of the touches this week. Big game for both teams, should be a dandy, but I’d take the younger back.

Is Brady going to lead me to a title? – Rorry in New Orleans

I sure hope so, buddy – you and me both. I don’t know about this weekend, apparently the weather is going to shrink his numbers. Or so they say. Honestly, I’d never sit Brady, even if he were playing against the Devil’s forces from the underworld. The guy is magic, and a little snow and wind shouldn’t kill his chances to find a fantastic receiving corps amongst a rather inefficient Jets defense. I thin people pay too much attention to wind and rain, etc, but who knows, maybe Kurt Warner against the Saints is a better option this week. I will ride it out with Tom, though, as I could take losing if Tom didn’t produce, but I would probably quit FF if I picked Warner over Brady and lost because of it. Go with the best single passing season every, and win it for the gipper!

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 15

This Week’s Top Team: 140? Not quite, but I had a few guys that did some damage. 82 whole points… Okay, so I had a down week.QB: Kurt Warner vs. New Orleans: 233 yards and 3 touchdowns for Kurt – If I would have listened to myself, I would have started Kurt over Tony Romo and Tom Brady and won my fantasy semi-final game. As is, I just have to play in the 3rd place game. Cool, $40! 23 points for the old guy.

RB: Joseph Addai vs. Oakland: 9 points… The Raiders held the Colts pretty much in check, as Indy just didn’t show up. 44 rushing ayrds, 33 receiving yards, and 1 two points rush that almost got one of the most consistent backs in the league to double digits. Good lord, 9 points.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Detroit: 23 fantasy points for my man LT, in just over a half of football. That’s what I like to see, his backup ended up with more fantasy points that he did. Either way, 23 is nice.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia: 37 yards receiving, all in the last quarter I think. Definitely the last half. How can the Cowboys be this bad in a pretty important game? Well, I blame that hot girl in the box seats. 3 points for Too…

WR: Greg Jennings vs. St. Louis: 66 yards receiving and a 44 yards (long) touchdown for a total of, 14 points. You bet. Jennings has turned into quite the catch, and I love it.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Detroit: Gates put up 1 catch for 8 yards. If you do the math, carry the 1, yes, that’s 0 points for the big guy, and his team put up close to half a century. Pass? Anyone?

K: Phil Dawson vs. Buffalo: 2 field goals, 7 points, once again, not a big day, but I couldn’t jinx the Browns into losing – a total failure once again.

D: Vikings vs. Chicago: 13 points from the Vikings, and had they given me 14, I would have won my semi-final game in my fantasy league. Jerks.

LUCKY’S Week 15 SLEEPERS

Trent Edwards: 5 points for Trent, and it was definitely my bad playing the youngster in a big ass snow storm that was almost painful to watch. 8-0 was the score – yikes. F.

Kenton Keith: This pick didn’t pan out as the Colts looked terrible, their running game looked terrible, and they barely beat the Raiders, so Keith didn’t get many carries. Damn. F

Frank Gore: 129 rushing yards for Frank, and so many people sat him because of his poor season. This kid is good, and he put up some solid points for me. B

Shaunna Alexander: 17 carries… 17 yards… Yeah, that’s one of those things you don’t want to match up. I hate watching Shaunna run, and I was definitely tricked into this sleeper selection. FFF

Lee Evans: He played in a snow bowl for a team that scored 0 and he still ended up with 40 yards – not too bad considering, but another bad choice by me. C-

Roddy White: 0 yards and 0 points for the top Falcons wideout – yes, the Bucs put a lock down on Roddy. F

Tony Scheffler: 100 yards and a touchdown, that’s what I’m talking about, finally! A+

Anthony Gonzalez: 86 yards and a touchdown for the rookie out of Ohio State – don’t be surprised when this kid steps right in and takes Marvin’s spot when Harrison is done. A

Buccaneers: The Bucs put up 26 points for me, and if I would have started them over the Vikings in my fantasy league, I would have won instead of losing in the Semi’s because of a tie-breaker… A+

LUCKY’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: He’s still bad.

Samkon Gado: 18 carries, 43 yards, a touchdown that helps his 0-for team get a win – I’ll just praise the young kid and say this, he scored more points that I thought he would, but 18 for 43 seems about right.

Laveranues Coles: Coles ended up playing like a snap, and broke my heart in more than one situation. But at least I was right on here.

Todd Heap: That whole, “He’s going to play” skit was a just a slap in the face for any fantasy owner that picked Heap high, held on to him all season long, and played him in the playoffs. He ended up not playing. What a sandy-panties.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 15

Week 15, and with only 3 weeks to go (counting this one) you can very well say that the football regular season is in the midst of it’s stretch run. Don’t fret, there’s still playoffs, and more time sensitive draft to wrap your mind around this spring. But for now, lets get at this NFL Picks thing, and see if I can’t come up with some solid reasons to take the teams I do… Bingo, Bango, Bongo!

Thursday’s Game…

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Houston Texans:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

This game should be an interesting one. The Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives, and even without Matt Schaub, the Texans are always trying to prove they belong. I’d like to see the Texans fight and claw their way to .500 for the season, but with injuries, and no real rushing game, I just don’t see that happening. The Broncos are freaks, and can’t figure out if they want to be good or not, but Selvin Young and Travis Henry can both be solid rushing threats against the Texans, and I honestly don’t think the Texans defensive front will do well against that chopp-em blocking scheme from the Broncos. Demecco Ryans is magic, but even he won’t be able to shut down the running game in Denver. Jay Cutler is beginning to figure it out, and seems to be at the top of that quarterback class right about now. I’m taking the Broncos on Thursday Night. (A side note, though, I am 0-2 thus far since the NFL Network took over on Thursday’s)

Saturday’s Game…

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Bengals are better on the road than they are at home, and the 49ers are just brutal. They’ll be starting… ________ (Insert name there) at quarterback, and unless you are a football savvy soldier like me, I’m guessing you wouldn’t be able to tell me much about the youngster that will be getting fed to the Tigers from Cincinnati. The bottom line is, the Bengals are bad, but can they be this bad? I don’t think so, as this game seems pretty simple to me. Take the team that can score points against the team that can’t – and don’t try to out-think yourself about which pick is “sharp” or road and home team chances, or who and why such team has more to play for. The 49ers are bad, and they won’t win another game this season.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Cleveland Browns:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I know the Browns were better defensively last week, but can you really count that? They were playing against the Jets, a team that was surely looking over the hill towards next week’s match-up with their divisional big brothers. Anyway, the Browns won’t be able to stop the accurate passing of Trent Edwards and will get especially diced up by the running backs in Buffalo. This is a huge game for both teams, but the Bills are playing better all around ball than the Browns right now. Gotta take them to get an upset win on the road in Cleveland.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I think the Rams could give the Packers some trouble, but only if Marc Bulger is fully dressed and his mooshy brain is ready to be productive. If he’s not starting, I’m taking no credit for this pick, regardless of how it turns out. I think the Rams aren’t a bad squad, and could even walk out of St. Louis with a win over the dominant Packers – but I’m not going that far just yet. I’m just saying, the Rams aren’t as bad as their record, and if Green Bay comes in with the mind-set that they are, they’ll take some lumps on Sunday. I’ll take the home team with 10 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Jaguars are the better team. I saw a scouting site that already has a mock NFL draft ready to go, and they said the Jaguars are looking for a quarterback early – puh-lease! David Garrard is everything this team has every wanted, and everything they need for the future. He plays ball control offense, is smart, and takes care of the football. He is a threat to throw deep, hit outs, and run the ball if need be. He’s physical and fast. Perfect for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are just playing inspired football right now, and the Steelers have been brutal the last four games or so. They didn’t have a chance last week, and while they will play better at home, I still think they fall to the Jags this Sunday. This should be a close game, and I think it will come down to the wire, but I like the 4 points with one of the best teams in football.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-24):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I actually think the Patriots have a good chance of covering this spread. When you consider Eric Mangini’s history with the Pats, and the fact that he was the one who snitched Belichick out for “spy-gate” I’d say this line is right on the button. I hate 24 point spreads in the NFL, and I say stay away from it, but I like the Patriots chances in this one much better than I liked them against eh Eagles and Ravens (the other big spreads they couldn’t beat). The Pats are back to dominating the game, and they have a huge reason to be up and ready to poop all over the Jets. They are at home, and you can bet the Jets, no matter what they do in practice this week, won’t be ready for the Patriots. Still, 24 points, seems a little ridiculous, no?

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I have to take the big away favorite here, and I don’t like it all that much. The Raiders are just bad, and the Colts are starting to pick it up everywhere. Their defense has been pretty damn good all season long, and now their offense, behind Prince Peyton, is rolling on all cylinders (well all the healthy ones anyway). I expect a huge running day from Addai, and probably Kenton Keith, considering he’ll get about 15 garbage carries that could very well lead to a glorious day for some fantasy football risk takers. I’m taking no risks here, as I think the Raiders will be limited by the Colts defense, and they won’t be able to stop the 2nd team.

Philadelphia Eagles (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I like the Eagles to keep this one relatively close. They were already beat up by the Giants in Philly, so I think they’ll come back to Dallas and put up a big fight. The Cowboys played pretty bad last week against the Lions, and Philly’s coaching staff can game plan with the best of them. My guess is they’ll learn a thing or two from the Lions ground success, and instill a little bit of their own with one of the best running backs in football. Westy should have a better day this time around, and while both teams will put up their points, I think the Cowboys will win a close one late. 10 points is pretty ridiculous in this rivalry.
Monday Night Football Game

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Kyle Orton… Hmmm… He was 10-5 as a starter, but you have to think this is a different Bears defense than it has been in years’ past. In fact, if you don’t think that, you’re obviously lacing your Egg-Nog up a little too strong, and you should tone it down a bit before you get too woosy and experiment the strength of your lighter on your dried out Christmas tree. But, that doesn’t mean that the Bears don’t have a chance – in fact, I think this game just stinks as far as value is concerned. I’m taking the Vikings, because the Bears can’t really stop the run, and Minnesota has two very good options on the ground, three if you count Tarvaris Jackson. Kyle Orton won’t do much with his arm, or you’d think Lovie would have tried him earlier in the season, before he went back to the Grossman option. Anyway, We shall see. I’m betting on the Vikings here, because they can stop the only thing the Bears do even close to well, the run game. And honestly, they aren’t very good at running the ball either.

Week 14 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I was just 3-4 for my free picks this week, as there were many a tough games for me. I did however, go 6-3 with my elite picks, which put me just two games over .500 on the week. I have some work to do in these next three weeks, but I have done well in the final half of the season in the 3 years prior to this, so get ready for some wins. Here’s where I went wrong on Sunday, and Thursday… Got Monday right on the dot, though!

Thursday’s Game…

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Washington Redskins: loss
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: Bookmaker)

“Both these teams have been less than impressive as of late, but I have to take the Bears, if only because the Redskins have been through too much over the last week or so, and that wears on a team more so in the 2nd game than the first. The Redskins are tough, and I imagine they’ll be back to football this week, but the Bears aren’t the pushover they were early in the season, and Rex Grossman is actually playing solid at the QB post.” This was a weird game. Both quarterbacks went down early, and the Bears abandoned their offense which seemed weird, because it’s not like Rex was the catalyst or anything. The Redskins did just enough, in a gross fest, as the Bears just couldn’t get into the end zone.

Sunday’s Games…

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (+10.5) : win
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

There wasn’t much reason to go for the Lions here, everything working against them, and in the end, although they convered easily, they gave up a late touchdown and lost a game they very well should have won against the best team in the NFC. Craziness, but I’ll take the win.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-7): win
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

“My brain had me believing that this was the one for Miami – and then I realized, they aren’t going to win a single football game. They don’t have the maturity, and now injuries are really starting to grab this team by the jugular. The only thing they have on their opponents, is, if they continue to lose, they could be considered the worst team of all time. Nobody with a set wants to have that title, and I’m sure the Dolphins will come out gung ho about getting off the snide. The only thing is, Trent Edwards is an accurate smart passer, and I don’t think he’ll make enough mistakes for the Dolphins to find a way to win. Also, Miami can’t stop the run, and the Bills have a pretty solid rushing attack.” Two guys, Jackson and Lynch, each rushed for over 100 yards, and the Bills handed the Dolphins their 13th loss of the season. Yep, 3 more to go to be “that” team. Fantastic!

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: Belmont)

The Giants are the worst team heading into the playoffs, and I still can’t wait for them to tumble in Round 1 by about a million points to whomever they play… (Maybe not the Hawks) – Anyway, they still found a way to ugly themselves to a win, which just about made me hurl. Plaxico somehow caught a couple high and outside passes from Elly Manning, yes, pronounced L-E, and took one to the house. The Giants won, but I still think they suck. Believe me when I say, just wait and see.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+3.5): loss
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

This game was a lot closer than many people imagined, but the Jets gave up a late touchdown that iced it, seems like the story of their season. Well, they’ve gotten killed a lot too. More importantly, how about those playoff bound Brownies? Oh, you betcha, they’ll be doing their best to get in, and if they can beat bad teams, they’ll sneak right on in without much of a sweat. Good win for Cleveland, their defense looked better on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes)

“I don’t do well with Seahawk games, so take this one, as always, at your own leisure.” I warned you, and while I am definitely taking credit for this loss, hopefully you either faded my “don’t pick well on the Hawks’ games” selection, or just left it alone all together. I don’t know what it is, maybe it’s the fact that Shaunna kills me, or that I live close to these guys, or that I always expect too much until they let me down – either way, I missed this one again, and the Hawks came out and won the division early, and split the season series with the Cardinals.

Monday Night Football Game

New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Atlanta Falcons: win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes 4)

Gross game – easy win for me that brought me over .500 with my free/pay picks combined, so that’s nice. I fell just short of .500 with my 7 free selections, but they are my low-tier plays, and you can’t win them all. I hope I can pull of a blockbuster undefeated week here in Week 15, with some crazy spreads coming out already. Check in later in the week for my Free and Elite plays.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Dec 08

The Playoffs begin, and the most important answers begin to flow like rains from the heavens… Okay, so don’t be ridiculous, just do what you did to get you to the place where you are. Don’t freak out and outthink yourself, but then again, don’t play it safe either. Try to score points – you know, that’s how you win. CHECK!

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

I’m doing a dance between Kolby Smith and Travis Henry right now. I never thought I’d be even thinking about starting Smith over Henry with both backs being healthy, but such is the case with the way Denver’s defense is playing and the way the rookie ran in each of the last two weeks. Whatcha think, Papa? – Tuba Vernous in Missoula Montana

First and foremost, what a name! Tell me you are or were a ball player, and or have some picture online where I can see exactly what a guy with a name like Tuba Vernous looks like. Vernous… Haha. Awesome. Anyway, funny you should send me that question, because here I am deciding on that same dilemma in my very own fantasy football league. If you’re in a hurry, I went with Kolby Smith. If you want a longer answer, here it is: Smith has more upside. The kid runs hard like he’s got something to prove, and even though the Chiefs have injuries on the offensive line, the Broncos defense is 2nd to last in the league against the run, and just gave up one billion rushing yards to the Raiders. Smith is tough to tackle, and he gets to the second level in a hurry, something that kills the Broncos. I love Henry as a back, but with all three running backs healthy in Denver, you have to guess what Mike Shanahan is going to do, and that’s never an easy problem to solve. I think Henry is the best back of the bunch, and he should get the most carries, but he took 25 carries for 50 yards last week, and while he did score 2 TDs, only Splinter knows who he’ll use as a goal line back this week. Safety and upside, Kolby is the answer, as crazy as that seems.

Would you start Lee Evans against Miami or Justin Fargas against Green Bay? The one is killing me. I’m starting David Garrard over Phillip Rivers, and Vernon Davis over L.J. Smith – agree or no? – Marty Akins from Georgia

I would start Justin Fargas in a non point per reception league, and it would still be a tough decision in a ppr league. Evans talent cannot be questioned – he’s the one guy that defenses try to stop on the Bills team, but the problem is, this season, they have succeeded in doing so more often than not. Fargas is going up against a very good defensive front in Green Bay, but he’ll surely get enough looks to possibly break one, and I like the chance of him putting up 10 points more than I like Evans to do that. However, Evans goes up against Miami’s stellar defense, so honestly, I think this is close to a wash. You’d expect at least 50 yards from Evans, with a chance for 150 and a couple scores. You’d expect 70-80 total yards from Fargas with a chance of a score. So I guess upside is Evans, best chance at points is Fargas. I would also start Garrard over Rivers, even though the Titans’ secondary hasn’t impressed me much as of late, I don’t think Rivers will get enough throws to make him much of a fantasy player, plus, he’s so up and down it’s painful. Garrard is consistently good – he’ll put up around 250 yards and a score, maybe two, and he might even get some rushing yards in the right situation. Good move there. Davis or Smith? Push. They are tight ends, and if one guys gets a lucky touchdown catch, he’ll be in the Top 15 at his position. Boy, TE’s are tough to stomach on fantasy squads.

My league has a toilet bowl – what do you think about those damn things? I don’t even know if I want to win – I mean, I’m a competitive sucker just like the rest of the fantasy owners out there, but is it a good thing to be the winner of the guys who sucked most of the year? – Shaun (Not Shaunna) in Seattle

Just as long as you’re not Shaunna Alexander, I think I understand you. But then again, if you are Shaunna, then you probably would have taken Shaunna with your first round pick in your draft, and you would almost surely be in the Toilet Bowl. Honestly, I don’t mind either way. Toilet Bowls can be fun, and I’ve seen some in which the Toilet Bowl teams had the most points every week – because now that it’s the post season, their crappy starters are the only ones playing, and that can get the Goliath’s where it hurts. For those who are in the #1 and #2 seeded spots, watch out for the guys that made a late surge to get in, they usually have the best teams – which really sucks. I say it’s always good to win anything you can win. I mean, the winner of the losers is probably better than the loser of the losers – right? It’s still competition, and it’s always fun to give your buddies a hard time if they lose in the first round of the poop bowl. You just have to ask yourself, would you rather be the loser of the losers or the winner of the losers? You won’t get the young hottie, but the middle aged girl with some nice assets is always better than no girl at all.

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 14

This Week’s Top Team: The search for 140…. If this were a PPR format – that would be easy breezy! As it turned out, even with Adrian Peterson’s fat 0, my guys ran in and put up 137… That’s legit.QB: Tony Romo vs. Detroit: “300+ and 3 TDs… Anyone?” Well, it took him until his final throw to surpass 300, and he only walked away with 2 touchdown passes. He was no Tom Brady (39 fantasy points) but he was a great option racking up 25.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. San Francisco: 14 rushes for 3 yards, well at least the 49ers made sure AP wasn’t going to beat them, while the did get destroyed all the way around. 0 pts for Peterson. Crazy.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Tennessee: He got a game winning rushing score in overtime, and also put up more than 170 yards of total offense and another score via the pass. He’s LT. He’s a 33 point champion in Week 14.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Pittsburgh: 135 yards, 2 touchdowns, one of them a 63 yarder for an extra two points…. 27 points for the big man. Yhatzee!

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Baltimore: IN a game that was Anthony Gonzalez’s breakout contest, Reggie only managed two catches for 42 yards, but one of them was a nice score over the defense, and even though it was a blowout and he didn’t play in the 2nd half, he had a nice 10 point day.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Tennessee: 57 yards and a game tying touchdown catch with just seconds to go. That’s the kind of day I was expecting out of Antonio, and he did it all with a bum wheel – 11 points from my TE.

K: Nick Folk vs. Detroit: My screw their team plan almost worked, but Romo’s magic ended my run and bombing kickers, even though Folk still just had 4 points. Like I said, never pick the kicker I do. Brutal.

D: Jaguars vs. Carolina: I picked this game right with the spread, and I pounded it out on the fantasy scoreboard as well. The Jags scored 27, and I walked away with a nice total, despite AP sabotaging my attempts to take over the world.

LUCKY’S Week 14 SLEEPERS

Marc Bulger: I like Bulger against the Bengals almost as much as I like Palmer against the Rams – and Bulger is a much bigger sleeper at this point.

Earnest Graham: I’ll ride this kid’s bandwagon once again -hell, I’ll drive the damn thing. Graham has been all kinds of great, and though he may not be much of a sleeper – there’s still leagues in which he’s a free agent – that’s just plain stupid.

Ryan Grant: This one is pretty easy – he’s a beast and he’s rolling up against the Raiders – aka – have your best game of the season, a coke, and a smile.

Maurice Jones Drew: I’m feeling a day full of magic from this mighty little fellow – and I say little lightly – lets be honest, 5’8″ and 215 pounds isn’t small by any means. That’s a huge short guy.

Sydney Rice: Much will be focused on the Vikings run game against the 49ers, and while they still won’t be able to stop it, Rice will get his chance to get deep on a few play action options.

Roddy White: He shouldn’t be a sleeper, but I just picked him up last week – and that’s absurd. Against the Saints, he’s got to be a top 20 option this week.

Vernon Davis: The Niners won’t be able to run, and they’ll have to pass to keep in this game – Davis is their best option. I’m not crazy about this pick, but he’s an option.

Mercedes Lewis: The only pass catching tight end option in Jacksonville, and he has an accurate and safe passer throwing the ball. That’s a good combination for a tight end that is probably on your waiver wire. Add that to his size and hands – you have to like this play.

Buccaneers: The Texans can put up points, but the Bucs have been good at shutting squads down all year long. I like Tampa’s chances against a Sage Rosenfell and Ron Dayne led offense. (I guess Andrew Johnson is the real leader, but he’s a WR, they don’t count)

LUCKY’S Week 14 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: Because he’s brutal.

Joseph Addai: The Ravens should stop him just like they’ve stopped every other running back. I sure like Addai though, and I know I can’t sit him – it’s just that I don’t think he’ll be good this week.

Justin Fargas: This young back has been dynamite since getting the starting gig, but I don’t see the Packers letting him run around much on Sunday.

Javon Walker: I like the Chiefs’ defense, and Walker has been slow to return from injuries. He’s still a week or two off, and the Broncos are still trying to figure their lives out.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 14

Last week’s dedication to Winnie Cooper and the luck she gave, only propelled me to 3-5 with my free picks, and 5-3 in my elite selections – but I did pull off enough wins to keep me even, and hopefully this week she can shed a little light on the luck of Week 14 and take me to the promise land. Here are my free picks for Week 14 – only 4 more weeks to go!

Thursday’s Game…

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Washington Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: Bookmaker)

Both these teams have been less than impressive as of late, but I have to take the Bears, if only because the Redskins have been through too much over the last week or so, and that wears on a team more so in the 2nd game than the first. The Redskins are tough, and I imagine they’ll be back to football this week, but the Bears aren’t the pushover they were early in the season, and Rex Grossman is actually playing solid at the QB post. Clinton Portis might be limited in this game, and while the Bears defense has been a shell of their former selves, they seem to be getting back to basics and attacking the line of scrimmage. I also like the dynamic that Adrian Peterson brings to the Bears’ offense. He catches the ball very well, which opens up a lot of plays that weren’t there with Benson in the game. It forces opposing defenses to account for Peterson’s receiving ability, and that’s always a good thing.

Sunday’s Games…

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (+10.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

No running game in Detroit = big loss to the visiting Cowboys. Dallas shuts down the rush enough as it is, but without any hint of a decent rushing attack, the Lions, and more reasonably Jon Kitna, will be bait in the water for Wade Phillips’ shark attack defense. I would expect sacks and turnovers galore for Dallas’s D – and any extra chances will surely amount to points for Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ passing game, because the Lions secondary is one of the weakest in the League. Detroit’s rush defense was exposed last week as well, and Roy Williams will be out for this game, and most likely the rest of the season. How the sky has fallen for Jon Kitna-Little and his big expectations for the Lions. To salvage their season, they’ll need a huge upset over the best team in the NFC.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-7):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

My brain had me believing that this was the one for Miami – and then I realized, they aren’t going to win a single football game. They don’t have the maturity, and now injuries are really starting to grab this team by the jugular. The only thing they have on their opponents, is if they continue to lose, they could be considered the worst team of all time. Nobody with a set wants to have that title, and I’m sure the Dolphins will come out gung ho about getting off the snide. The only thing is, Trent Edwards is an accurate smart passer, and I don’t think he’ll make enough mistakes for the Dolphins to find a way to win. Also, Miami can’t stop the run, and the Bills have a pretty solid rushing attack. I’m not a huge fan of either side on this game, as I think the value is minimal. But in a crunch, I’d take the Bills – they are better, and Buffalo is always a tough place to play, you know, because it’s painfully cold and pretty much brutal all around.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: Belmont)

I like the Eagles to rebound this week against the Giants. They lost to the Hawks last week, but that was mainly due to 4 interceptions by the interception king, A.J. Feeley. Yes, the guy everyone was crowning last week after the Patriot game has 7 picks in 2 games – in a 16 game season, he’s on pace to throw just around, I don’t know, 56 interceptions (in my head quick math, not caring enough to double check). McNabb is apparently in for this week, and while we shouldn’t forget what happened to McNabb last time these two teams met, I’m guessing the Eagles will play better and actually consider blocking for their quarterback this time around. The bottom line is, I don’t think the Giants are good, at all, and while they’ve used a little luck to sneak by more than their fair share of teams this year, it will come a crashing halt sometime soon, and I think it all starts in Philly. Westbrook is magic – don’t forget that one truth.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+3.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:40am EST: TheGreek)

I know the Jets have killed me a few times this season, but the Browns seem to play to the level of their opponents, and the Jets can trick you good. See, they have a terrible record, and have played abysmal football in week’s past, but they also have a maturing offensive line, and a coach that is starting to understand the importance of a rushing attack. The Browns have a terrible defense (just about as bad as the Jets – except New York has done a little to impress me over the last few weeks) and their offense won’t be able to cover road games in which they are favored by more than a field goal. Look for the Jets to get yet another win, and bring the Browns back down to earth a little bit.
Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Seattle Seahawks:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes)

I don’t do well with Seahawk games, so take this one, as always, at your own leisure. Shaunna Alexander actually ran hard in the second half of last week’s game against the Eagles, but I’m not sure if that was just a one time thing for the former touchdown machine. I’m guessing it is, and that he’ll be back to folding like a lawn chair as soon as he sees contact this week in front of the home town fans. The Cardinals may be hurting at receiver a little bit, but they are deep at the position, and I don’t think Boldin’s absence will be that much of a kick in the butt. Getting 8 points from 5Dimes on Wednesday, I had to move to the direction of the Cardinals. If Ken Whisenhunt has shown me one thing, it’s that, the more he gets to know a team, the better he prepares his team to beat that squad. Well, this is the second meeting with the Hawks, and while it’s tough to beat a good team twice in a season, I don’t think it will be hard to keep the game close. Take all those points and the Cardinals.

Monday Night Football Game

New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:40am EST: 5Dimes 4)

I don’t think Mark Redman will be the answer the Falcons have been searching for since Vick went wacko and did the deeds that got him where he is today. Bobby Patrino continues to give the ball to Warrick Dunn, despite horrid numbers, even though the ever explosive Jerious Norwood wears Falcons’ garb to every Atlanta game. The only way I can make sense of it is, Atlanta knows they are an abysmal pile of oozy cow pie, and they don’t want Norwood to get hurt when he doesn’t need to. It’s either that or Patrino has been drinking heavily before games, and forgets that his best player isn’t on the field for 85% of their offensive snaps. Either way, this is an interesting mess the Falcons have gotten in, and I’m not so sure they’re going to get out of it any time soon. New Orleans isn’t good, but they aren’t too bad on the road in recent years, and Atlanta will be stoked to see stars like Bush, Brees, and Colston, so they aren’t going to be hostile, more thankful than anything else. This is a big Monday Night game for the wingless Falcons, but in the end, when all is said and done, at the end of the day, when the good has been sifted from the bad, it just won’t matter, even with a bunch of poorly used clich├ęs.