Author Archives: admin

Week 13 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Posted on by

Winnie left me waiting in the car and took my best buddy out for a good time… I sat in my car and listened to the football games break my heart. Here is how I lost 5 different games with my free picks. My elite picks brought me back close to .500 by going 5-3, but it was still a tough week for Ole Lucky Lester.

Thursday’s Game…

Green Bay Packers (+8) @ Dallas Cowboys: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

Close call, and I’d like to say that Brett Favre’s absence killed the Packers, but I can’t even buy that. Aaron Rodgers came in rolling, and played well enough if the Packers had a chance at all. Truth be told, Ryan Grant had a hell of a game, and TO gave a touchdown away, literally. So I lost this game, but deservedly so. Tough week, not much luck, started with a Thursday Night loss.

Sunday’s Games…

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (-3.5): win
(Line: Wednesday, 9:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“I think the Falcons are just about done winning games this season, and the Rams just started. Despite losing last week at home to Seattle, St. Louis played a pretty solid game, and still has one of the best offensive units in the game when healthy… I’m sure the public will be riding the Rams in this one, but I honestly think they’ll win by more than a touchdown.” (Me) This picked just seemed too easy, and in the end it definitely was. Not much to say but, I’d be surprised if the Falcons won another game this season, and I think the Rams will win at least two more in the next 4 weeks.

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (-5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Terrible, ridiculous, absurd I’m so old I forgot the rules playcalling lost this game for the Redskins, but I lost my bet when Washington decided to stumble about anxiously down the stretch. I don’t get why they didn’t keep moving the ball and trying to score, this old school way of playing football just doesn’t fit the now in the NFL. Gibbs’ time has passed as an NFL coach, as much as I like the guy. I’m just flat out tired of watching the Redskins outplay their opponents for much of the game, only to droop late in each contest and fail. The Skins were up 5 late into the 4th, but tumbled by 1 as a last second field goal ended their day.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I guess I was wrong about the Lions, and their solid rushing defense. This team has hit rock bottom, and I don’t know how they can turn it around with Dallas getting the nod next week. Bring on Romo and TO? Right, not quite the team you like to see if you need a win to turn your season around.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Titans just came out and pounded the ball. Also, Vince Young was tested, and he passed with flying colors. The Texans dared him to throw by dialing up single coverage on the outside, and Young had one of his better passing days in his young NFL career. I’m not sure if the Titans will do much better than 8-8 this season, but they’ll be pretty darn good next season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

This game was closer than the final score insisted, but I needed a win, and I got one. The field was a mess, and I made a nice little profit on the under at the last minute. I noticed the rain in the Philly game and went right for the computer to place a new bet on the under. It came close, but some solid defense and some streaky quarterbacking kept the game well under the total, and I got the W there as well.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I would have pushed had Brian Westbrook cut in bounds and scored on that last minute punt return instead of running out of bounds, but ifs and buts are useless and are the type of excuses that annoy everyone. The bottom line is, the Hawks defense came to play on the road, something they rarely do. Also, even though Shaunna Alexander is just about my least favorite player this side of Drew Bledsoe, he actually rand down hill a few times in the second half, and that was enough to keep the Hawks on their winning streak. They have the talent to do damage; now if they can just keep their focus. This was a great game, but it was lost by A.J. Feeley and his love for interceptions.

Monday Night Football Game

New England Patriots (-20) @ Baltimore Ravens: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I hate to say it, but the Patriots should have lost this game. My mommy always told me, “You know, those games are all fixed. There’s more important people than those players, and they know the right people, have enough influence, and are big enough asses to decide who wins and who loses.” Aside from crying, and telling her she was wrong, I’ve still never agreed that games are won and lost because rich guys pay off poor guys, but this game could definitely cause a stir amongst those who believe the other way. Honestly, I just think great teams often get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the closest of plays, and while that will always piss someone off, it’s just the way it is. Mike Jordan got the calls, Larry Bird did as well – Joe Montana and the 49ers were the angels of the NFL back in the day, and Wayne Gretzky did what he wanted when he laced up the skates. I hate to say it, but that’s just the way it is. Right now, I’m officially off the Patriots picking train, and back to actually capping their games.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Dec 01

Posted on by

Lucky number Week 13, or that’s what my nephew calls it after he hit 16-0 a couple years ago – anyway, no need to waste any more time trouting around like donkeys, lets get right to this fantasy business.

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

I need a win something fierce, who should I start between the following? Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, or Edgerrin James (any two will do) and between Deion Branch and Reggie Brown… Thanks! – Con Brinkley in New York

I would never bench Addai – he’s too big a part of the Colts offense, and he’s a very good runner with great all around numbers. That leaves Steven Jackson playing Atlanta and Edgerrin James going up against the Cleveland Browns. Can you go wrong? I don’t know. It’s tough to choose an aging Edge over a healthy and youthful Ste-Jack, so I just won’t do it. I like James’ match-up with the Browns, but honestly, I think Kurt Warner and company will easily toss touchdowns against Cleveland’s defense, leaving little room for James to score. Go with the Jackson-Addai dynamic duo… As for receiver, I think you have a touch decision on your hands. The Eagles worked a way to shut down Randy Moss, who plays an outside roll similar to that of Deion Branch, plus, Branch is shorter and not as able to jump and get the ball. Branch will be the surefire #1 with Hackett out. Reggie Brown hasn’t impressed much this season, but A.J. Feeley seems to have more trust in him than McNabb did, and it looks like Feeley is about to start. So I’d got with Brown. He is a nice physical match-up for the vertically challenged Seahawk cornerbacks, and the Eagles will have room to run play action and get nice gains through the air. I’d roll the way of the Eagle in this one.

I’m in a league where you get to keep one player at each position. I’m already keeping Steven Jackson and Andre Johnson at RB and WR, but who would you keep between Matt Schaub and Derek Anderson at QB? I know DA is getting fantasy stats with the best of them, but I have to like Schaub’s upside, right? – Cam Carlson in Michigan

Cam, you do have a tough decision, regardless of all the fantasy points Anderson is holding over Schaub’s head. What you have to think about with DA is, how long will he be in Cleveland? You’d think a team, with all the trouble they’ve had trying and finally getting a solid quarterback, would just stick with what got them to the next level, but obviously they might feel as though they have a situation with Brady Quinn, and end up with a Drew Brees/Phillip Rivers dilemma in Cleveland. Tough call. Matt Schaub is going to be the starter in Houston for a long time. He has one of the best young receivers in the game, he has a coach that has succeeded in forming some of the most efficient offenses in the game, and he’ll only get better with the more opportunities he has. However, Derek Anderson has weapons too, very good ones in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow – plus, Jamal Lewis isn’t old yet, and the offensive line in Cleveland is awesome, plus LeCharles Bentley is expected back next season, making them even better. I’m not sure you have a wrong choice here, the Texans O-Line problems make Schaub more of a health risk, and the Browns commitment to Brady Quinn makes DA an interesting keeper – but I say stick with Anderson. He’s a big gun-slinger with a cannon for an arm, a great O-Line, and two huge weapons with great hands in Edwards and Winslow.

I know it’s this season, but I’m just checking predictions here, how do you rank the following receivers and then quarterbacks heading into next season? Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson. Then Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, David Garrard, Jay Cutler, and Vince Young. Fantasy-wise of course, and in a 6 pt TD pass league, with PPR format. – Sherry Baby in Denver, Colorado

Sherry, Baby – I personally would go with Randy Moss (assuming he stays in New England – might be a big assumption), Andre Johnson, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and then Roy Williams. Obviously, in NE, Randy is the king of the wide receiver class – he has one of the smartest coaches in the game, smartest quarterbacks in the game, and a team that loves to give him a chance at the ball. Andre gets my second vote, because he’s been dynomite when given a chance, and I can only imagine he gets better with one more season, and another year together with Schaub. TO is a close 3rd, probably 2a, but is just a hair behind AJ because of his years and sometimes questionable actions in years’ past. Though I think he’s been a great teammate and citizen this season, and imagine he’ll continue on that path until he’s done. Larry is my #4 because after starting a little slowly, he’s been one of the most consistent receivers in the game – I’m not sure, but he’s been close to 100 yards in almost every single one of his last 8 games – that’s solid. Plus, I think he’ll always be a great touchdown threat. I put Calvin over Roy Williams, because the Lions seem to like Calvin more, and while I think Roy is freakishly good, Johnson might have just that much more of a special size speed combo – making him get the nod.

At QB, I’d go with Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, David Garrard and Vince Young – VY has the intangibles to get him big wins in the NFL, but I think people will soon realize that he’s not the fantasy royalty everyone was thinking he’d be. Eil Manning and David Garrard are so much closer than I thought they’d be, even with David getting the starting gig. Eli is just too inconsistent. While he gets lots of TDs, he also spends a lot of time throwing for under 200 yards – which is gross, and he makes lots of mistakes. Garrard doesn’t make mistakes. Phillip Rivers may be in the midst of a down year, but I can’t imagine that rolls into next season. He’s too competitive and accurate, and he can throw the ball with enough velocity when he sets his mind to it. Plus, look at those weapons. That brings me to Jay Cutler, a 2nd year guy that I think is being held back by his coaching staff trying to limit his mistakes. He can toss a football as far as anyone, and he’s got good vision even when pressure is around him. Plus, as much as I hate Splinter, he’s one hell of a coach, and he’ll always put Jay in good positions. The biggest thing working for Jay is his receiving corps. Brandon Marshall is going to be a great receiver, Javon Walker will be healthy and when so, he’s fantastic and then you have Tony Scheffler – great hands and a fearless attack on the ball in the air. Watch out for Jay next season.

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 13

Posted on by

This Week’s Top Team: 116 points – bad production from the bottom end killed me – defensive points, kickers (duh) and TE’s proved to be pretty worthless for me this week.QB: Tom Brady vs. Baltimore: Teams can’t run against Baltimore, but passing has come very easily. This should be one of those “pile it on” games, which Tom likes to throw 4 or 5 touchdowns in. Needless to say, I like my chances with this year’s fantasy hero. 21 points ain’t bad though.

RB: Brian Westbrook vs. Seattle: Westy had 19 fantasy points, but broke my heart when he didn’t take that punt return to the house. How does a guy not cut that back to the inside, instead just getting pushed out of bounds? I’m sure he’d like that move back. Anyway, he had a big rushing score and His 7 catches for 46 yards helped to. What a great season for Brian.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. KC: This fine TCU product excelled this week, putting up those stats I’ve called “LT stats” in the passed. 31 fantasy points is one of his best days of the season, and finally Norv Turner is begainning to realize how Marty won all those games. 177 rushing yards and 2 TDs – nice work.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Philadelphia: 34 yards and a touchdown, will the real Randy Moss please stand up? Randy didn’t do all the damage I expected, but his TD pass was a savior that got him to 9 points on the week. What about next week in Pittsburgh? They are actually good…

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Jacksonville: 158 yards and a touchdown (a long one for an extra 2 points) – yeah, I’d say Reggie did 24 points of damage for me at the WR spot – gotta love that.

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Arizona: Winslow only had 35 yards, but he did catch a 2 pt conversion, and he did catch a touchdown that was completely missed as time expired. I hate referees. How do they not call that a pushout? Fantasy be damned, I just think a guy should get the score he deserves, and the right team should win. Did that happen on Monday Night?

K: Adam Vinitieri vs. Jacksonville: “I just pick a kicker and that seems to make them have a bad week. So now, I’m picking kickers of teams I want to lose – it worked last week, here goes nothing. A Jaguar win in Indy would be nice, and it’d tie things up in the South.” Damn, the Jags didn’t win, they lost by a field goal – and not one that Adam kicked, because he only had 4 extra points. God, I hate kickers!

D: New England vs. Baltimore: Willis McGahee came to play this week, and the Patriots were let off the hook (as Dennis Green so kindly said) – I wanted to crown them, but the were let off the hook. 4 points against the Ravens – I’m not even angry, I’m just disgusted!

LUCKY’S Week 13 SLEEPERS

Kellen Clemens: Clemens only had 12 points, and against Miami – that just isn’t’ that good. Granted, he didn’t have to throw much in the 2nd half, but I’m not as impressed with Clemens as I thought I’d be. C

Earnest Graham: Another 100 yard game from this consistent little back, and another fantasy team for my team since I picked him up weeks and weeks ago. Talk about a great option. 19 fantasy points, and another A+.

Jesse Chatman: Jesse got hurt, so it’s hard to be fair – but he did kill me in one league, so I’ll just take an F for this call. I guess you have to be weary of those injured players.

Thomas Jones: 75 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, and it’s about damn time, a rushing touchdown for TJ. He still didn’t look great, as Leon Washington almost matched his yardage on about 20 less carries. All in all, though, this was a good day for Jones’ owners. 15 points. A

Donte Stallworth: He only had 63 yards, as the Patriots didn’t look crisp against the Ravens. Baltimore came to play. Anyway, Stallworth was 2nd on the team in receiving with 68 yards, good for 6 points. I’ll take a C-

Nate Washington: 2 catches for 16 yards? Gross. F

Owen Daniels: 3 grabs for 42 yards – I hate to say it, but 4 points from a TE isn’t all that bad. I’ll take a C for this one.

Chargers: Once again, my second defense outscored my top pick, this time by 21 fantasy points. The Chargers shut down the Chiefs very well, and put up 24. That’s an A+.

LUCKY’S Week 13 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Rex Grossman: Hey haters! Rex had 296 yards and a touchdown without a pick. He still got sacked a ton, and probably cost his team with all those negative plays, but he didn’t turn the ball over. I was wrong, and he had a nice day despite all the sacks. 17 pts.

Laurence Maroney: Laurence didn’t do much on the ground, 13 carries for 34 yards, but he did make 2 catches and piled up 79 yards receiving on those two grabs. 10 pts isn’t that bad, and more impressive than I thought.

Warrick Dunn: 10 carries for 17 yards – all I have to say is, your welcome for that advice.

Deion Branch: 5 catches for 40 yards – is that the kind of production you expected from the #1 option in Seattle? I didn’t think so. Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram both had better days than the other Deion.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 13

Posted on by

Lucky number 13… Is it time to go back to the well and call up WINNIE Cooper? Ah yes, for those of you who have been following me over the years, you’ll surely recall how I called on Winnie to help win me some games in one glorious Week 13 a few Novembers ago. And if you recall that, you’ll definitely recall how I ended up dancing a dance of perfection, ravaging the NFL to the tune of a 16-0 week. Well, hopes are high, and Winnie’s poster (fat head) is getting put up on the board. Here’s my free picks for week 13.

Thursday’s Game…

Green Bay Packers (+8) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

These are two very good teams that rival the best the league has to offer. That being said, I do think Dallas is a little better than Green Bay, but just a little. Defensively, I actually like what the Packers do more than the Cowboys. They have a solid secondary with two safeties that can really move on the ball in the air. Dallas has two huge hitters and can be taken advantage of deep down the middle, or in man to man coverage with either safety. I think these teams are very equal offensively, with the Packers having the slight upper hand. This is the best the NFC has, and that being said, I think both teams feel as though they have something to prove on Thursday. This should be one hell of a game, a close one, and getting more than a touchdown, I have to go with a Packers team that should probably be undefeated right now. Yes, believe it. They are a self destructive second half away from a perfect record. Each team has had their close games, and I see this being yet another one.

Sunday’s Games…

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (-3.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 9:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Falcons are just about done winning games this season, and the Rams just started. Despite losing last week at home to Seattle, St. Louis played a pretty solid game, and still has one of the best offensive units in the game when healthy. The Falcons don’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with St. Louis, unless the Rams have an injury to Bulger or just come out flat-lined. I like Steven Jackson to exude some force in this one, especially against a defensive tackle group full of backups. I’m sure the public will be riding the Rams in this one, but I honestly think they’ll win by more than a touchdown.

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (-5):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I hate to bet on this game at all, honestly. There are too many emotions floating around in Washington, and I’m not privy to the team enough to know how they’ll react as a unit. I know they are hurting bad after the murder of their friend and teammate, Sean Taylor. However, I like how the Redskins have been playing lately despite their losing ways. They are fighters, and I’m not so sure that the Bills, without their 1st and 2nd string running backs, will be able to compete from start to finish. I’m taking the Redskins here, but it’s not one of my strongest plays of the week. Basically, when I’m not sure, I lean on a team to step up in time of emotional crisis.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings:
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I know that the Lions are less than stellar on the road, but I don’t buy how well the Vikings played last week, and I also am not bidding on the Lions fall down the NFC. Detroit has gotten away from what made them strong, and I’m guessing they’ll get back to their open attack this week against a weak Vikings secondary. From what I’ve seen, the NFL doesn’t really work in runs. The Vikings were one of the more dominant teams in Week 12, and my guess is they’ll struggle in Week 13. I like the money line for the lions here, but getting more than a field goal, I’ll roll with Detroit to get a big road win to keep them in the playoff hunt.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I like the Titans to rebound here. I don’t believe the hype that Albert Haynesworth’s absence has caused all the problems with Tennessee, but obviously getting him back would give the team a boost against a Texans team that is playing pretty solid football right now. Andre Johnson is back, and if the Titans can’t pressure Matt Schaub into some mistakes, it could be another long day for Tennessee’s secondary. However, I think they’ll easily shut down the Texan rushing attack, and force Schaub into 3rd and long situations – that will be the key for Tennessee to cover this one.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Bengals had a nice performance last week against the Titans, dominating in most aspects of the game, and putting up nice offensive numbers while completely shutting down Vince Young and the Titans. They got up early, and actually took some chances in the game, and that’s what the Bengals need to do to be successful. However, the Steelers, in my opinion, are still one of the NFL’s best teams. They play very well at home, and the also play big in big games. I think this is a huge game for Pittsburgh after the 3-0 ridiculously sloppy game last Monday Night. Plus, I just can’t bet on the Bengals because of one good game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I think Brian Westbrook is trouble for the Seahawks, I like the Hawks team more than Philly’s but Seattle plays poor on the road, and they didn’t play well last week despite beating St. Louis. They aren’t strong enough with their run game, and Philly has the physical corners to disrupt the Hawks short stuff. And like I said, Brian Westbrook is going to be a Hawk killer on Sunday. I’m not sure if McNabb is playing or not, but A.J. Feeley can do enough to keep the Hawks secondary honest. Reggie Brown’s size will help the Eagles keep possessions going and defensively, I really like the Eagles’ confidence right now.

Monday Night Football Game

New England Patriots (-20) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

Okay, this 20 point thing is getting a little ridiculous, but unlike the Eagles, the Ravens can’t put up points against the Patriots. Also unlike the Eagles, the Ravens don’t have a secondary that is strong enough to eliminate Randy Moss, or cover well enough to make Tom hold on to the ball that extra second. This spread is huge, and I’m not a fan of huge spreads, but I have to take the Patriots. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a Monday Night shut out of the Ravens. I think the score will be 31-7 or something ridiculous like that. Baltimore is bad, and their amazing run defense won’t matter against New England.

Week 12 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Posted on by

An interesting week, overall I didn’t do too shabby (4-6 with my free picks – 5-3 with my elite picks) but I had a tough Sunday in my Free Picks category, and I know that hurt some of my trusty readers, but such is the way it goes sometimes. I hope you capitalized on my two Thanks Giving day wins – and sorry for the tough free picks this week. Here’s where it went bad…

Sunday’s Games

Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: SBG Global)

I may have had the loss in this one, but I capped this game perfectly. The Broncos had given up two kick returns for touchdowns, and they were still up 14 with less than 7 minutes to go… And they end up losing by a field goal in overtime… Absurd. You take your losses when they come, but the games like this hurt a little more than those you just straight missed.

Tennessee Titans (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

I missed this one. I expected a big day for the Titans after they crumbled like stale sourdough bread against Denver last week. Well, the crumbling continued, and the Bengals, of all teams, were there to feed the ducks. I lost this one bad.

Minnesota Vikings (+8) @ New York Giants: win
(Line: Thursday, 11:50pm EST: 5Dimes)

“I think the Vikings powerful rushing attack will finally give other teams the recipe to make the Giants defensive front full of defensive end speed rushers suffer. Call it hopeful thinking, but the Giants haven’t played well enough to be 8 point favorites over anybody.” Maybe this 42-17 loss will allow the rest of the football world to see who the Giants really are. They are a pass rushing defense with a mediocre passing game, and that’s about it.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Jaguars are one of the best teams in football, and I have a feeling they are going to make a push at the Colts in the AFC South. They may not have the playoff recipe for success, but they’ll continue to handle teams during the rest of the regular season, and I’ll be here capitalizing on it.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Raiders win! The Raiders win! And you can’t blame this game on the Chiefs injured rushing attack, because rookie Kolby Smith put in work. The Chiefs sucked defensively against the run, and that allowed Justin Fargas to drop elbows on the end zone, getting in there twice, and putting up big yardage.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (-22): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

“I had to say it out loud in front of the mirror 3 times, but I will not bet against the Patriots. I’ve never wanted to go the other way more than I do right now, 22 points is absurd – I can never remember a spread being this high in my entire NFL capping career. But then again, this game throws up some interesting questions for me. I either think the Eagles will get absolutely destroyed, making the spread look realistic, or play the Patriots down to the last snap, losing or winning a final play-type thing.” (Like I said, I have never wanted to go against the Pats more, but there were too many questions for me. The Eagles ended up making the 2nd part of my prophecy true, but unfortunately I put my pick on the first half. I definitely warned you to stay off this game, and it was a tough one, for a second there I thought the Pats would actually lose a game. Tough

Monday Night Football Game

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-16): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

It’s tough to put my lines out early, and expect the weather just not to be an issue. If I were picking this game, or laying a bet later in the week, I would have surely bet the under and taken the Dolphins, because that field was a mess. I thought the Steelers could easily shut out the Fins, and that did happen. However, I didn’t expect the lowest scoring game of all time, and that is also what happened. Tough call, and damn the weather man!

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 12

Posted on by

This Week’s Top Team: 100 on the dot – not good, but with some injuries and only 7 points from Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, it could have been a lot worse. Thanks to Tom Brady, I just reached the century plateau.QB: Tom Brady vs. Philadelphia: Tom wasn’t the best option in Week 12, but he still put up 380 yards and a touchdown. And he was good for 22 fantasy points. Still, there were 9 guys that finished higher than Brady, including AJ Feeley and Trent Dilfer…

RB: Joseph Addai vs. Atlanta: Addai was out for about half the game, but he still came back in to post a touchdown that upped his ranking this week. 5 points from yards and a touchdown for an 11 point week.

RB: Steven Jackson vs. Seattle: Jackson was held in check for most of the day by the Hawks defense. He broke one huge touchdown run, but besides that he didn’t do anything. He still posted 93 yards rushing, 15 receiving, and a long touchdown good for 18 fantasy points for me.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Philadelphia: 43 yards – Randy’s worst day of the year. Schucks auto supply!

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cleveland: Andre only had 3 fantasy points this week, which really stunned me. I thought he was one of the best options this week.

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Houston: “This Soldier will have close to 100 yards against the Texans.” How about 107 yards and a touchdown. Big day for the Soldier… 16 fantasy points from my tight end.

K: Rob Bironas vs. Cincinnati: “Does it matter? I just pick terrible kickers every week. I’ll guess I’ll go with the team I want to lose – hmmm…. I doubt they’ll lose, but maybe my bad kicker luck will keep them down against the Bungles.” YEAH! I have a tactic these days… Bironas had 6 fantasy points, but the Titans lost big to the Bungles, and I think I’m on to something here.

D: San Diego vs. Baltimore: 18 fantasy points for the Chargers this week, as they pretty much shut down the Ravens. It was a must win for San Diego, and their defense stepped up their game.

LUCKY’S Week 12 SLEEPERS

Kellen Clemens: 3 fantasy points for Kellen, and his Jets got destroyed by the Cowboys. So I was right and wrong, right that he had to put points on the board to give his team a chance, and wrong that he’d have a decent day. F

Earnest Graham: 75 yards and a score, Earnest finished just behind Chester Taylor, and once again put up a solid week filling in for the injured Caddy Williams. B

Chester Taylor: Taylor ran the ball for 77 yards on 31 carries. He did, however, put the ball in the end zone during the Vikings destruction of the Giants. His totals were good for 14 points on the day, and he was a Top 15 start. B

Edgerrin James: Edge had 8 fantasy points in an absolute shoot out. He posted solid numbers, 78 yards on 17 carries, a catch for 11 yards, but the fact that he didn’t reach the end zone hurt his total. Still, 8 points was in the Top 25 this week for running backs. C-

D.J. Hackett: D-Jack had 4 catches for 40 yards before he went out with an ankle injury. I’ll leave this one ungraded, but realize that an injury hurt my cause.

Donte Stallworth: Stallworth got the win against his former team, but he didn’t get involved that much. Wes Welker was the guy Philly left open, and he ended up killing the Eagles. Stallworth had 50+ yards, not a terrible day, but nothing to write home about either. D+

Tony Scheffler: “Against the Bears, I expect Scheff to get 60 yards and quite possibly a touchdown. He’s a tough match-up for that questionable secondary in Chicago.” Scheffler had one lucky ass touchdown grab, but what a job of grabbing it when he had his chance, great concentration. The Scheff had 20 more yards than I expected, putting up 16 fantasy points for me this week. A+

Chiefs: Just 8 points for the Chiefs, and they lost despite a 150 yard day from Kolby Smith… Are you kidding me? F just for that loss.

LUCKY’S Week 12 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jason Campbell: JC still put up 301 yards this week, and he was ranked 18th amongst signal callers with 12 fantasy points, but he didn’t have a good day. All in all, he was mediocre, and I finish middle of the pack on this one.

Travis Henry: Didn’t play.

Wes Welker: Most catches and most yards ever for the little guy? You bet, I couldn’t have been more wrong unless he put a couple in the end zone. As it stands, I was just pretty wrong.

Roy Williams: Well, I hope I helped you out here. Roy had 34 yards and no scores once again. Has anybody realized that Roy hasn’t done shit since the Lions started losing? Maybe they should try to get him the ball next week against Minnesota.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 12

Posted on by

Week 12 starts early, and I’m going for 3 big winners is a row with my Free Picks. All the Thanks Giving Day games are free for your wagering pleasure, good Luck to you all! Check my current records, and reviews, I’m rocking it lately!Thanks Giving Day Games – Home field advantage? I sure hope not, or I’m going to look silly this Thursday! 3 Free games on a day where most of you go to family gatherings and plunder free eats – you have to feel good about that!

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I know Brett doesn’t play well in Domes, and the Lions should step up their game after a couple losses leave them reeling. I also know that the Lions “need” this game a whole hell of a lot more than the Packers. However, because I’m sick of reading too much into games, I’m going to go ahead and take the team I think is way better than the other team. The Packers have moved up a notch since they found their consistent rushing attack. And while Ryan Grant sprained an ankle in the Packers last game, it looks like he’s going to play. Overall, the Packers have a better offense, a stronger running game, and a much more potent defensive unit. I’ll take the Packers as a field goal favorite on Turkey Day.

New York Jets (+15) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

My first gut feeling was to take the Cowboys in this one, but the spread moved over two touchdowns, and I think the Jets have been playing good enough ball to give the Cowboys a scare in the holiday game. In the end, the Jets defense will be too porous for Dallas, but this game just has the feel of an odd game. The Jets have to have more confidence after their overtime win over the Steelers, and I believe they are a much better team than their 2-8 record indicates. Clemens opens up their offense and gives more room to their running game. Thomas Jones should have a decent day against Dallas, something that the Cowboys rarely surrender.

Indianapolis Colts (-11) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Colts are missing more than a few key players, and no, I don’t think Magic Marvin will be back to help his quarterback for this one. However, I do know that even on a bad day with a few backups in, the Colts are two touchdowns better than the Falcons. Atlanta’s win streak is over, and I’m sure Peyton Manning is waiting to shut all these idiots up that are saying, “All you have to do is pressure Manning, and he’ll have bad games.” He’s played poorly of late, but I just have a feeling, he’ll turn things around against the hapless Falcons in the late game this Thanks Giving.

The rest of the Free Picks to follow shortly. I hope you all have a great holiday with friends and family this thanksgiving and a special shout out to the troops who can’t make it home in time for this thanksgiving, I know what I will be thankful for once again this year.
Week 12 Free NFL Picks

I’d love 12 wins in Week 12, for my wallet, and for the cool 12 in 12 reference. Anyway, this is what I have, and that’s already 2 wins from Thanks Giving’s games – so 10 more to go. 7 more picks for Sunday’s action, making that 10 free picks this week. Enjoy, and lets have another big week!

Sunday’s Games

Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: SBG Global)

I like the way Denver is moving, and I’m not sold on the Bears attempts to revitalize their season. Defensively, they just aren’t good enough. Offensively, they still aren’t running the ball with much effectiveness, and that combination of things probably won’t get them too many wins as the season wraps up. The Broncos are now right in the chase for a playoff spot, and this is a team that is improving. I don’t like the fact that they gave up 300+ yards to Vince Young, yikes, but I’m going to have to take them over the Bears here.

Tennessee Titans (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

Please, this game might as well be a freebee. The Titans are much tougher than the Bengals. They’ll run all over them, and Vince Young will probably have a decent day through the air. More importantly, unless the Bengals morph into a different team, I don’t see their offense putting up many points against the Titans, either. Cincinnati is consistently mediocre at home, and this game will be no different. Take the Titans to win here, most likely in a very comfortable manor.

Minnesota Vikings (+8) @ New York Giants:
(Line: Thursday, 11:50pm EST: 5Dimes)

I don’t like the Giants, and I think the Vikings powerful rushing attack will finally give other teams the recipe to make the Giants defensive front full of defensive end speed rushers suffer. Call it hopeful thinking, but the Giants haven’t played well enough to be 8 point favorites over anybody. I know, I know, their record is good – give it up, the dream is dead, and when they sneak into the playoffs, they’ll lose early. Take the Vikings here.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Bills have begun their fade into obscurity, and no, it’s not JP Losman’s fault. Marshawn Lynch looks like he’s going to miss his 2nd game this season, and that’s not helping the Bills’ cause. David Garrard is a winner, and the Bills have proven, that if opposing offenses don’t make big mistakes, they can rarely put the ball in the end zone. Well, unfortunately for them, and fortunately for me, David Garrard doesn’t make painful mistakes, and the duo of MJD and Fred Taylor might just run roughshod on the Bills front 7.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game stinks. LJ is out, Priest retired agains, and Marcus Allen has long since retired… Needless to say, this game is tough to pick. I have to take the Chiefs at home if only because of their famed home field advantage and the fact that Oakland shouldn’t be abel to win anywhere. There’s not much firepower on either of these teams right now, bu thte Chiefs have a very underrated defense, so I have to roll the dice on them.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (-22):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I had to say it out loud in front of the mirror 3 times, but I will not bet against the Patriots. I’ve never wanted to go the other way more than I do right now, 22 points is absurd – I can never remember a spread being this high in my entire NFL capping career. But then again, this game throws up some interesting questions for me. I either think the Eagles will get absolutely destroyed, making the spread look realistic, or play the Patriots down to the last snap, losing or winning a final play-type thing. Will McNabb play? Will he sit? Will the Patriots continue their offensive relentlessness? Or will they tone it down on the holiday weekend? I’m putting my money on lots of Eagle turnovers, no rushing attack, and a Tom Brady highlight film. If that’s the case, why not a 4 touchdown victory? Still, there is no value in taking the Patriots here. But I have to.

Monday Night Football Game

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-16):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Steelers have to be sick to their stomachs that they lost to the freaking Jets last week. They are a much better home team than they are on the road, and I’ll even go as far as to say they could play the Patriots tough on a good day. They’ll be playing on Monday Night, with a chance to show the Nation that last week’s stumble was a fluke, and that they really are a championship caliber team. The Dolphins, as unfortunate for them as it is, will be the whipping boy in this one, and I wouldn’t be even a little bit stunned if the Steelers pitched a shutout in this one, in the 35-0 model. 16 points is a Patriot spread, but I think the Steelers, at home, deserve that against the pathetic Dolphins.

Week 11 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Posted on by

For the 2nd week in a row, I was breaking out winners left and right – in both my free picks and my elite section. I finished 6-2-1 with my elite picks, and as you’ll soon see, I snagged 5 wins 2 loss and a tie in 7 games of free picks as well. Hope you profited off my winning ways! Here’s the review.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

It was a pretty easy cover. The Jaguars were up by a couple touchdowns, and Maurice Jones Drew was showing why 5’7″ guys can have power. He bulldozed his way in for a touchdown, and put Shawne Merriman on his can with a huge block that allowed David Garrard to throw his 2nd touchdown. The Jaguars showed that they were the better team, and they won the game by a touchdown. My first win was a big one.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: win
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Bodog)

“The Colts will still win, but the Chiefs defense is pretty solid, and Ty Law has been kryptonite to Peyton Super-Man-ing for some time now. I hope Priest has a big game, but either way, I think this one should be a low scoring closer affair.” (Me) Priest actually got hurt, which puts his career in jeopardy, and kind of puts a little bad feeling on this victory for me. The Colts needed a last second field goal to get this win, and they were obviously struggling for much of the game. The Chiefs played solid defense, but it wasn’t enough, as they fell 13-10. I hope Priest turns out okay, he has always been one hell of a player.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game ended up being closer than I thought, but I still pulled out the big win. I’m pretty sure the Pack won by 14 when all was said and done. Green Bay killed the Panthers, though, as the game definitely wasn’t that close. Brett Favre is really playing some amazing football, and with Ryan Grant running hard, the offensive balance is fun to watch.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This was a real tough game for me to call, and a late Redskin touchdown put this game on their side against the spread. The Cowboys ended up winning, but they needed 4 touchdown passes from Tony Romo to Terrell Owens to make sure. Jason Campbell played well for the Skins, and they came up a Hail-Mary short of winning this game. My first loss of the day! Darn it.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+10): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

“I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in football, but after big wins they seem to take a step backward. Maybe it’s their comfort level with their new coach, or the feeling that they are unbeatable after a nice home stand. Either way, they struggle on the road, and struggle after big wins. They play a “seemingly easy opponent” this week, which leads me to believe that they’ll come out slow. Kellen Clemens opens up a lot of things for the Jets, and in his second game starting, he’ll be ready to attack the Steelers’ secondary. Big things. Big upset? I’m not so sure, but I’ll take the home team with 10 points.” Well, I can’t say I didn’t warn you guys. Prior to the game, the above quoted section is exactly what I wrote down for why I was taking the Jets. The Steelers came out slow, and it ended up killing them in the end. Plus, they lost Holmes and Polamalu for their next game against Miami. Does that mean that they’ll struggle against the Dolphins?

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I’m completely blaming Carson Palmer for this loss. Palmer threw 4 interceptions, against the Cardinals. Gross. They lost by a touchdown and a two point conversion, so take away any one of those picks, and the Bengals might have very well put this game into overtime. Two of the picks went back for touchdowns, which makes Palmer’s day even worse. He’s way better than he’s been playing. Bungles got me again!

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10): push
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

There were some late lines that had the Eagles at -9.5, and I hope you picked that up. If you were like me and got -10, then you pushed. If you had a book that was -10.5 or greater, you got hosed by yet another Donovan McNabb injury. Will that guy ever stay completely healthy for an entire season? Either way, this one pushed for me.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-1.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

Vince Young actually had a huge day, but the Titans couldn’t contain the Broncos precision passing attack (Cutler was 16-21 with 200 yards and a couple of long scores) and they gave up too many big plays (all 4 Bronco touchdowns were of 40 yards or more). Poor tackling and bad angles played a huge roll in this loss for the Titans, and I’m happy to say I was on the Broncos side this time around. It did make me happy to see Splinter call a timeout before Bironis’s field goal right before the half, have him miss it, then re-kick it, and make it. Interesting. I knew that would happen, and if I’m not mistaken, I predicted it might just happen to him. Anyway, 5-2-1 – Another solid winning day in the big house.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Nov 18

Posted on by

It’s Week 11, everyone gets their 10th game out of the way, a reader tells me that Buffalo is going to upset the Pats – that doesn’t go over real well.

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

I think the A-Train will roll this weekend against a Patriots team that should be in a lull after their bye week – and Lee Evans is going to go off.  What do you think? Ken Westfall in Buffalo

I know Buffalo is the spot where running backs get drunk and get different girls preggers just for kicks, but I didn’t know that fans in Buffalo had a drinking problem too. A-Train isn’t a bad backup, but he’s not going to go off against New England, don’t get crazy now. And the last think on earth that’s going to happen is Lee Evans going nuts on the team that pretty much eliminates him from the offense everytime Buffalo comes to town. New England is the last team I’d like to play where they’re coming off a bye, because not only is their coaching super intelligent, but the group of players in New England is more football savvy than any other unit in the game. Patriots by 21 or more. Thanks for playing.

Hines Ward or Andre Johnson? Selvin Young or Earnest Graham? John Clayton or Sean Salisbury? – J. Dog in Florida

Andre Johnson, Earnest Graham, and by a forehead, Sean Salisbury. Johnson is the bigger upside receiver, and he’s supposedly 100% healthy, and Matt Schaub is back – did I mention they’re playing the Saints? Yhatzee! Selvin Young, even if he does start for sure, will be going up against a pissed off Titan team that finally allowed a 100 yard rusher last week at home. They’ll shut down the Broncos pretty well. Earnest Graham gets an Atlanta team that has won 2 straight, and chances of them winning three in a row are worse than Miami’s chances to win 3 games this season. And that leaves me to the dynamic ESPN duo. Clayton looks like he’s missing a piece of his head, and while Salisbury has some unrealistic confidence stemming from his time as an NFL backup’s backup, he still brings a player’s touch to arguments, and he has a full skull structure – huge bonus.

I’ve been playing fantasy football for three seasons, and this is the first one I’m not in 1st place by Week 11. Should I stick with Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger, and Tory Holt? Or should I make trades for those guys. Right now I could get Steve Smith for Tory Holt, and Adrian Peterson for Steven Jackson – what are your thoughts? Darrell Willis from South Florida

I would stick with the Rams. They don’t have a tough schedule, and I don’t like your trade options right now. Steven Jackson, assuming he stays healthy for the rest of the season, is still a threat to score often, as the Rams offense looks to be back. Having 3 guys on the same team isn’t always ideal, but all three of those guys have shown promise in the past and lately, so I like that option. Steve Smith can only be as good as the guys who get him the ball, which, quite honestly, doesn’t make him that good of an option. AP should be good in a couple weeks, but by then, you might be out of the picture. The Vikings have no reason to rush their best player back, so you shouldn’t have any reason to trade for him. Good luck!

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 11

Posted on by

Do work, Son! Week 11 and it’s time for the number’s equivalent in wins.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Jaguars are the better team here. They are the home team. And the only reason they aren’t favored by more is that they have absolutely no hype. Well, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew may not be LT, but the duo makes a damn good rushing attack. Also, David Garrard returns for the Jags, and the kid just doesn’t make mistakes. Also, the Chargers have a tough defense, but they aren’t the best against hard nosed physical offensive attacks. That’s what the Jags have. One more thing? The Chargers won last week against Indy, but they barely did. They got 6 interceptions given to them, and Sproles returned a kick and a punt for a touchdown, and they still needed Adam Vinitieri to miss a gimmie field goal to win the game. Doesn’t sound much like a killer instinct to me. I’ll take the Jags.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15.5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Bodog)

The Colts are missing a lot when Dwight Freeney isn’t in. He allows the team to get pressure without blitzing. He makes other pass rushers better, because he requires a double team, and special attention. Without him in the game, the Chiefs won’t have to game plan around an automatic speed rush from his side. The Colts will still win, but the Chiefs defense is pretty solid, and Ty Law has been kryptonite to Peyton Super-Man-ing for some time now. I hope Priest has a big game, but either way, I think this one should be a low scoring closer affair.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Packers are legit. They DE-Stroyed the Vikings last week, and shut down Adrian Peterson even before his injury. Defensively, the Packers have enough talent to keep them in any game. My only worry here is that the Panthers defense also steps up away from Carolina, seemingly feeding off the away crowd. Green Bay is a great place to play if you like that stuff. The main thing steering me away from Carolina is their quarterback play. They are either too young or too old at the position, and that leaves them hurting considering they need to get the ball to Steve Smith to win football games.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Washington Redskins are starting to show their real colors now. Dallas is a dominant force that will most likely find themselves dueling it out with the AFC’s best in the Super Bowl. This game is in Dallas, and I can’t think of one reason why the Cowboys would be slipping into this game with any sort of lull. They are just a win away from keeping pace with the Patriots team that they insist they are better than. Dallas is bigger, better, and wants to win more than the home team Redskins – that’s a recipe for a blowout.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in football, but after big wins they seem to take a step backward. Maybe it’s their comfort level with their new coach, or the feeling that they are unbeatable after a nice home stand. Either way, they struggle on the road, and struggle after big wins. They nearly lost last week to the Browns, but pulled it out late. They play a “seemingly easy opponent” this week, which leads me to believe that they’ll come out slow. Kellen Clemens opens up a lot of things for the Jets, and in his second game starting, he’ll be ready to attack the Steelers’ secondary. Big things. Big upset? I’m not so sure, but I’ll take the home team with 10 points.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Bengals haven’t turned it around, don’t be confused. They still stink on defense, despite allowing just one touchdown last week, they still stink. Those were the Ravens, for god’s sake, they’re brutal. This week the Cardinals strong offensive attack comes to town, and they’ll have to put up points to win. Luckily, and the reason I’m taking the Bengals to cover, Chris Henry is back in action, and his speed and length gives the entire Bengal offense more room to run. He needs to be accounted for, and if you pay too much attention to any one of the three dynamic pass catchers in Cincinnati, the other two will hurt you. Look for the Bengals to get their rushing attack going as well, for the Cardinals defense isn’t half as good on the road as they are at home.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Eagles are back, but don’t tell anyone. More importantly, don’t tell them. As long as they think nobody respects them, they’ll come out and smack opponents in the mouth. Donovan McNabb looks healthier and healthier as the season goes forward, and Brian Westbrook is magic. More importantly, key defenders such as Mr. Dawkins, are getting healthy, and that makes the Eagles a scary team. The kicker here, though, is John Beck starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. If starting a rookie at quarterback doesn’t spell “building for next season” I don’t know what does.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-1.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

The Titans aren’t as good as everyone believed after a very good start. Vince Young is struggling, and more than a few key players have been hurting for the Titans. The Broncos had a big week against the Chiefs last time around, and as I said last week, they seem to be building a stronger and more consistent team as the season moves forward. I like them this week, and expect a little run at the playoffs from the Broncos.