Ask Papa Weimer: Week 17

Well, I will randomly post up questions with answers as the year moves forward, but this is my last of my seasonal Ask Me questions and answers. I’m always available via e-mail, for questions and advice, so feel free to send in at your will. I got a ton of questions from David this week in an email, and all were solid, so I just printed his one question and my long answers… Hope this helps!

“I want to thank you for all the advice I used and all the advice that I failed to use and I should have used. It enabled me to win my teacher’s league and finish 2nd in my big money league by .4 of a point. It looks like I will be able to play for a few more seasons. Now I need some advice for the playoffs. 1a-I would like you to list the 2 best teams in each conference and 1b-who you think will be in the Superbowl. 2-If you had a chance to draft a team for the playoffs what top 3 QBs would you go after,which 6RBs,and 6 WRs would you target? 3-Are there any players that you think will play in 3 games? 4-What are the 3 best Def to target? I appreciate all the help that you have given me. Also, 5- I am in a keeper league where I can spend $160. I can keep 3 players. Here is my list. Which 3 would you keep and why?

Andre Johnson $25
Ryan Grant $20
Chris Johnson $13
Eddie Royal $6
Jay Cutler $12

6- Finally, are there any RBs or WRs that could have a break out year that will be flying under the radar for next season? What about QBs that could have great seasons? Are you in any playoff leagues?

I would like to say you’re welcome for the advice, and sorry for the poor advice that I gave that might have stopped you from getting #1 in both leagues, but 1 and 2 is pretty solid. I’m in a couple playoff leagues, one in which you just pick the best starting lineup every week (I’m defending Champ there), and one where you pick 25 guys, any 25 you want, and you make a starting lineup every week depending on who gets eliminated from your roster every week. Now for the answers to your questions (but remember, this might all be a little easier if I knew exactly who was going to the playoffs)…

1a. Top Two Teams in Each Conference:
NFC- NY Giants, Carolina Panthers – both rely on the run game, and have solid defenses – that usually means playoff success.
AFC- Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans – I think I’d rank the Titans higher because they run the ball better, but if Big Ben gets his stuff together, and he usually does come playoff time, the Steelers will be tough to beat.
Sorry there’s no flier crazy pick here, but I truly think these top 4 are the top 4, so I have to go that way.

1b. Super Bowl match-up: Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: Tough one for me. I think the Giants have a chance to get upset. They have some holes, that’s for sure, and they don’t play their best against the rest of the NFC East. If Dallas or Philadelphia somehow get in, and the Giants play one of them in New York in Round 2 of the playoffs, the Giants might get upset. If Carolina plays all their games at home, I think they have a great shot to see the Super Bowl. But really, the NFC is a tough one. AFC too, it’s either the Titans or the Steelers for me, and both have a great shot.

2. Playoff Rankings
QB- Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo or Eli Manning, Peyton Manning…. UGH (I hate the quarterbacks in this one, i have to be honest, I think Ben might be in the longest, and he has a chance to go all the way, and he’s solid so he gets the nod over Kerry Collins and Jake Delhomme, neither of those guys are that good fantasywise. Tony and Peyton both have a chance to play multiple games, if Dallas gets in, they could easily play 3, and Manning will match up against one of the AFC East teams or the AFC West winner, neither of those teams are great, and he has a good match-up in Week 1, plus they can’t run so he’ll be throwing. Romo (if Dallas gets in) will likely play Arizona or whoever wins the North (Chicago or Minnesota) – all are great throwing match-ups, and Dallas is likely better than any of those teams. But this is tough, I might pick four just to make sure.

RB- Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, (AP or Forte – whoever gets in), Marion Barber (I would almost stay exclusively in the NFC, because whomever wins in the AFC wild card round will have to face Tennessee and or Pittsburgh – don’t sign me up for that RB match-up. Pittsburgh’s RB situation is cloudy to say the least, and Tennessee probably has a good match-up in Week 2 of the playoffs, with Chris Johnson being a good match-up against a wild card winner. But that might leave you hanging if the Titans don’t make the Super Bowl. Tough choices.

WR- Steve Smith, TO (if Dallas gets in), Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss (if), Hines Ward, Wes Welker (if) – if the Patriots don’t get in, or if Dallas doesn’t get in, you need three more – Roddy White, Domenick Hixon, Vincent Jackson – if Vince doesn’t get in, maybe take a shot on Arizona and grab Boldin or Fitz, I just don’t see that team winning in the playoffs, but you never know. I didn’t think much of the Giants last year either – how’d that work out for me?

3. I think Dallas, Indy, Atlanta, New England, – and the 4 top seeds all have a chance to play 3 games…

4. I would target only defenses from the AFC, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and maybe Baltimore (if they get in) – that way you’ll have the best shot at starting a D every week, and all those defenses are tough. The only D I’d grab from the NFC is the Giants, and remember, repeating as Super Bowl Champs is really hard to do. If Baltimore doesn’t get in, and you need one Week 1 playoff defense, the winner of the NFC North or the Cowboys might be a decent bet. If Baltimore gets in, I’d surely take the 3 top Ds that I listed.

But all of this depends on how you’re doing this league. If this is a draft, and you are snaking and picking up players, things might be different. The way I do playoff leagues is that you get 25 players of your choice, and every week you start a lineup of QB, RB, Flex, WR, WR, TE, K, D… I kind of remember you maybe doing a draft. If that’s the case, I think the Falcons have a nice shot at winning Week 1 in the playoffs, and a solid shot at Week 2 as well. Roddy, Turner – two solid options.

5. Keeper League Guys:
I would keep Chris Johnson for sure – he’ll never be $13 ever again, kid is only going to get better.
I would probably keep Andre Johnson too – I think the Texans break out next year, and this guy is probably the best young receiving talent in the league. And I also think $25 is a nice price for a top receiver – who were the expensive receivers this year? What did they cost?

Eddie Royal for $6 seems like a steal, but it seems like auction drafts always find you cheap receivers somewhere, is that true? I haven’t done one before, had a couple started, but never got the league all the way through…

If it’s not a PPR league, I think Ryan Grant is a solid buy. He doesn’t have much hype though, and it’s likely that you can get him for around this price next season – so maybe you’d want to go for Cutler…

What did the top 5 QBs go for this season? He’ll definitely be a Top 5 guy next year. Just think about value, I think Jay, Eddie, Chris, and Andre all have climbing value. Grant is about the same, maybe down a bit – you want to keep your best value. But you also want to look at RB options moving forward, if Grant is going to be one of the best RBs left on the board, he might be a keeper option. Not a PPR is it? If it is a PPR league, I think I’d shy away from Ryan.

6: Some guys that have either seen a huge drop in Value, or aren’t respected as much as they should be, that could be goodies next season…

Kevin Smith (I see a lot of talent there), Pierre Thomas (he’s the best running back in New Orleans), Rashard Mendenhall (I still love his game, and I have a feeling Parker might get the snip), Roddy White (one of the best receivers in the game, doesn’t get enough credit), Marques Colston (not sure, but he might have lost a lot of value), Braylon Edwards (so much talent, so many drops, probably drops way down because of those), Ted Ginn Jr (looks to be doing well, next year is his 3rd), Dwayne Bowe (consistent, very consistent and that KC offense seems to be blossoming a little bit), Vincent Jackson (this might finally be the time he meets those expectations he gets from his talent), Maurice Jones Drew (the #1 back in Jacksonville next season, all season- he’s had a great year, and they will undoubtedly have a healthier offensive line next season), Ronnie Brown (they didn’t give him the ball enough this year, Ricky gets older, this kid has all the talent in the world for a team that’s getting better where it counts, on the line), Ryan Torrain (I watched him in half a game, and I see what Mike Shanny sees in him, hopefully Shanny doesn’t go schitzo and change it up, but he’s a deep sleeper), Ray Rice (stay tuned, but Willis might get the snip, and Ray would be in line for at least a Chris Johnson-LenDale White type share of the Ravens backfield), Roy Williams (this is a big shot in the dark, but Dallas traded too much and gave up too much money to see Roy get 3 passes a game, he probably turns into a 1000 yard guy next year, but I think his value will go back up because of Dallas Hype going into next season).

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