Tag Archives: Free Sports Gambling Advice

Carolina Panthers vs New York Jets Free NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets (-2.5) Free NFL Pick: This is definitely a battle of, “Watch my quarterback’s interceptions kill our chances to win football games on a weekly basis” and I’m ready to watch with intense disgust. I would blame the rookie and the shriveled vet, but can you really blame Mark Sanchez or Jake Delhomme for the stupid play calling that continues to tally up the passing plays while both teams need to be running it 60% of the time? The answer is no. Whomever calls these plays obviously thinks these two teams can pass better than they do. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene can do work. They have a good offensive line. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart might be the most talented running back duo in the league, and their offensive line is usually great, and solid enough without Jordan Gross (out with injury). But still the passes come.

I know the Jets don’t have the stellar run-defense they had earlier in the year. With Kris Jenkins’ move to IR, so went the dominant force in the middle that shut down the run at all costs. But they are a better run-defense than the Panthers, and their secondary is a little more impressive as well. Revis should take away Steve Smith from Delhomme, or rather, Jake might get easily confused and throw the ball to Revis instead of Steve. Either way, it won’t bode well for the Panthers.

In a game that should be close, I’ll take the team I think is better, playing at home, and by less than a field goal. Seems like a deal to me.

Seattle Seahawks vs St. Louis Rams Pick & Preview

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Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3) Pick & Preview: I think both these teams have been brutal, and I’ve been recorded saying (once or twice or twenty times) that St. Louis is one of the worst teams in football. But some how, some way, I’ve found enough that I like about them to go Rams as a small underdog at home. I’d say, “don’t ask me why” but that’s kind of my thing, I tell you why I do stuff – part of the deal. So here goes…

The Hawks are 0-5 on the road this year, and they generally stink away from the noisy home stadium in Seattle, even in solid seasons. They are even worse when they have to start playing football in the early game, 10:00 AM Pacific Time. That’s what they’ll be doing here.

Now, prior to a couple weeks ago in Detroit, the Hawks have played very well against the lower-case teams in the league, the rams, and  – well, that’s really the only bad team they whooped – ad that was in Week 1. They whooped the Jaguars, who played terrible that day in Seattle – but the Jags have been decent. They beat the Lions three week ago, 32-20, but Detroit was up early, and on top for most of that game. A late INT-TD gave them an undeserved cover. But they’ve learned how to try and play not to lose. One of the worst ways to win games in any sport.

The Hawks lack aggression, are predictable, and I think the Rams will sneak in and smack them in the mouth a little bit. St. Louis is bad, I hate them, their QB is a laughing matter unto himself, but what I’m seeing has St. Louis covering.

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles NFL Free Pick

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Washington Redskins (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles NFL Free Pick: The Redskins just aren’t as bad as you think. They are pretty useless offensively, no doubt, everything looks difficult for them when they move the ball – but a couple gamebreaking plays here and there, and what do you know, points are on the board. But that’s not why they are keeping themselves in games – not at all – they are in games because their defense is stout. The can stop the run okay (their numbers aren’t great, but that’s because they are always on the field and always playing from behind) but the can defend the pass with the best of them. They have a talented secondary, and since all the Eagles do is throw, I think Washington has a very good chance of staying close in this one.

This line has gone down a bit, it started at 10 and it’s down to 9, all this despite 60% of the public liking the home favorites. As you know, that makes me like my pick a little more – not because I care what Vegas thinks, but because it’s nice to think they see what I see.

Philadelphia beat Washington 27-17 earlier this year, and while the Eagles didn’t look that good in the process, the score actually wasn’t really that close. Jason Campbell threw a late touchdown with 1:38 left in the 4th quarter to make it a 10 point game.

The Eagles offense didn’t put up good numbers, and defensively they allowed some yards – the Redskins won time of possession (slightly) but the game got away because of 4 turnovers, 3 fumbles lost and one interception – the Eagles didn’t turn the ball over once. If Washington holds onto the ball, this game stays close in Philly.

Clemson Tigers vs South Carolina Gamecocks NCAA Pick

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Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) NCAA Pick: Clemson has owned the Gamecocks over the last 7 years, winning 6 of their last 7 meetings, and covering 6 of the last 8 times these two have played. Whether it’s been on the road or at home, the Tigers have flexed their in-state muscle.

But I think this game will be different. It’s not what the Gamecocks have done, but who they’ve played – they are ready for a game against the Tigers. Over the last five weeks of games the Gamecocks have played Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Alabama. Now Vandy might not have much to offer, and Tennessee hasn’t won but a handful of games, but those other three are legit, and two of those are probably the best two teams in the Nation. Clemson has one hell of a defensive line, and that has given opposing offenses trouble all year long, but I know South Carolina has seen that kind of defensive front a couple times this year, and that makes me think they’ll be ready for the Tigers.

Getting three points at home is another plus for me here. Getting two weeks to prepare for Clemson is just another bonus. One might say that Clemson finally getting their act together and winning 6 straight coming in is a sign of trouble for South Carolina – but I’d have it no other way. Winning streaks end – and I’m willing to take a South Carolina team that went toe-to-toe with Florida two weeks ago, even though they’ve lost 4 of their 5. They are 5-1 at home, and obviously play their best football there.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Boise State Broncos Pick & Preview

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Nevada Wolf Pack (+12) @ Boise State Broncos Pick & Preview: As I imagined, this line has moved in my favor. You can get the Wolf Pack at +14, and those extra two points could be very big.

Am I saying that the Wolf Pack are going to come in and down the Broncos perfect season? Are they going to clear up the BCS small school picture with a single HUGE upset over Boise State in Boise? In Boise? Boy, that’s tougher to call, but in a game that is often close (or at least has been over the last 2 seasons) I think the Wolf Pack have one hell of a chance to put a wrinkle in time.

First of all, let me give some credit to the Broncos. They are one hell of a team, and they can really move with any team in the Nation on both sides of the ball. They showed early in the season what they can do to an elite rushing attack like Oregon, and they’ve proved all season long that they know how to win, even when things don’t go there way. Boise can run the ball – they’ve out-rushed all but two opponents all season long, and they have one of the most accurate and efficient passers in all of college football, the stud lefty Kellen Moore. Moore has 33 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, and will almost certainly eclipse the 3000 yard mark in this game. Boise is grand.

But Nevada is coming in on one heck of a run. They’ve won 8 straight, covered six of those games, and out-rushed their opponents in every game, by 200 or more yards in 6 games. They can really run the ball. They have a great quarterback to their own right, a rushing and throwing elite athlete in Colin Kaepernick. Nevada has been getting closer and closer, and I think they give the Broncos a game in Boise.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Louisville Cardinals Free Pick

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Louisville Cardinals Free Pick: Tom Savage, the Rutgers Knights’ starting quarterback, easily had his worst performance of his career – but I’m not willing to think that’s going to be his new norm. The kid has all the intangibles to lead his team to victory on any given day, as he’s shown by winning all but two of the games he has started in his young career. He had 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions while completing around 60% of his passes prior to last game’s stinker against Syracuse. I first and foremost like him to bounce back.

Louisville isn’t good, not even mediocre. They have beaten just 4 teams this year, all of those teams unimpressive. They’ve played a couple close games, but without the talent and confidence, the Cardinals have really taken a hit this season. One thing they have going for themselves is a basically blank injury list. But if nobody’s injured on a team that has been pretty nonexistent all year long, is that a good thing? Maybe if the back-ups got a little taste they would show something?

The short of it is this, usually, when solid teams play their worst game of the season, they come back the next time out and play well. This is the boat that Rutgers is in, coming off a stinker against Syracuse, the Knights should be ready to win. That’s sports. That’s just the way it usually is.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Cincinnati Bearcats CFB Pick

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Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) @ Cincinnati Bearcats CFB Pick: Just as I imagined, this spread moved in my favor – but I’m thinking I don’t need those extra points – though 20 would be nice (and the spread is currently at 20.5 in 90% of the sports books) I just see this game being closer. The Illini have some elite players, and they were certainly expected to perform better than they did this season, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they have the athletes to make this a game.

Illinois has covered in three of their last four games, winning two of their last 3. They’ve played their best football of the season over the last 4 games, and Juice Williams and company are finally getting on track. A little late for a post season performance, sure, but this game is Illinois’ season, and it would put a nice finishing touch on a tough season if they could hand the Bearcats their first loss of the season.

Cincinnati has played quite a few close games lately. Against West Virginia, Connecticut, and Fresno State, they finished on top by a single score or less. They still have a quarterback dilemma (thought two stud quarterbacks seems like a good problem to have) and the questions surrounding who is going to play and when might still be sitting around for this solid team.

The Bearcats have a lot to look forward too, and sometimes, often times, teams in that situation get caught looking forward. If Illinois can hold the ball, keep it in their hands with some big conversions, I think they keep this game very close.

New York Giants vs Denver Broncos Pick & Preview

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New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (+7) Pick & Preview: The Giants have lost my trust, and while the Broncos have played like piss, and lost four straight headed into this game with New York – I actually think they are back to being the “prove we’re better than you think we are” team they started out the season as. After starting the season with some big wins and 6-0, face it, the Broncos started getting a lot of love. Orton was celebrated, Marshall was happy, and Josh McDaniels was the next best football mind stemming from the Bill Belichick tree. Funny what four weeks can do to an NFL franchise.

But like I said, this is where the Broncos are most comfortable. They are underdogs by a touchdown at home this week – and the public loves the visitor. I know the Broncos will use that as motivation this week, and I think that makes them a nice cover value here.

Plus, the Giants, it’s not like they’ve played solid ball of late either. After getting blasted by New Orleans and Philadelphia (also losing to Arizona and San Diego), the Giants just barely squeaked out a cover the Atlanta Falcons in overtime. It looked like they were scared to death, and playing too reserved down the stretch. That allowed the Falcons to get right back in it, in turn I lost some trust in a very talented Giants team.

Seven is too many.

Oakland Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Pick

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Oakland Raiders (+14) @ Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Pick: The Oakland Raiders aren’t a good football team, but they have a solid defense and they are a more efficient offense when JaMarcus Russell and his terrible tunnel vision is sitting on the bench or just lazily watching the game form the sideline. Is Bruce Gradkowski a good quarterback? I’m not going that far – but he’s always been accurate, and while he might not open up the field with a great deep arm or a strong 20-yard out, the guy can find open players and he makes quick decisions.

Those quick decisions will be very important against a Cowboys team that can bring pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders offensive line is healthier than it’s been in a while, and I think that will open up some running room for the trio of backs in Oakland silver and black.

I also don’t think and offense struggling as much as the Cowboys can give any opponent 14 points. Giving 14 points to the Raiders on National Television doesn’t seem like a good idea either, as they always seem to play close games in those circumstances.

I think Dallas getting just 48% of the bet in this one is proof how ridiculous this line is. These are the Cowboys, they often are on the other side of that public betting line, but not even the normal favorite fans are excited about the Cowboys giving up two touchdowns. And they shouldn’t be. Dallas may be 7-3, but they barely beat KC, and have played in a lot more close games than the final scores suggest. They also are coming off arguably their two worst offensive performances of the season in back-to-back weeks.

All things considered, I’ll take the two touchdowns. Even if they are dressed in silver and black.

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick: The Packers might not play very consistently against good teams (well they do play consistent, as they consistently don’t live up to their projected talent expectations – but you know what I mean) but they do beat up on the tomato cans. Okay, they lost to Tampa Bay – but somebody was bound to lose to the Buccos, and Tampa has played decent football the last few weeks. Prior to that, the Packers were 3-0 against the league’s cellar dwellers, outscoring the Browns, Lions, and Rams 73-20 in those three games.

It might have to do with defensive pressure and the fact that all the tomato cans struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If you can’t disrupt what Aaron Rodgers does through the air, you don’t have a chance against the Pack. The Lions have been out-passed in 8 of their 10 games, and have given up an inordinate amount of passing touchdowns through 10 weeks of football. They even gave up 304 yards and 4 touchdowns to Brady Quinn and the Cleveland Browns – yeah, those Browns, the same Browns that probably didn’t have 4 passing touchdowns all season.

I actually like the Lions a little better with Culpepper in there, but that was before Matthew Stafford went all tough-guy on the Browns and came in to throw a game winning touchdown with no time on the clock despite the seperated shoulder that will likely keep him out of this week’s tilt with the Packers. It’s a Nation TV game, and the Packers are going to show up. Getting a short week should help the better team, the team with less injuries. That’s the Pack.