Category Archives: Free Pick Reviews

Free NFL pick reviews by luckylester.com. Each week during the NFL season Lucky Lester makes predictions on the outcome of every game and this is the free football picks review main category.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 15

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Well, I lost some tied some and won some, all by the hair on my chinny-chin-chin. And all being tallied I came out in a tie. Yes, that’s right Donovan, it’s possible for me to tie, and it sucks almost as bad as tying with the freaking Bengals. But here goes the review of where I went wrong, right, and absolutely no where. Here’s my 7-7-2 “Push me around in a red radio flyer” week.

New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (-2.5): (WINNER) That 2.5 was just enough for me, but I’m pretty sure it was closer to pick em just prior to game time. This was an interesting one as I expected a lot more out of the Bears’ offense. However, they didn’t need all that O as they held Drew Brees and company pretty much in check, battening down the hatches when they needed it most. It was a close one, but that seemed to be the way the weekend went.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: (Push) This is one where the early week pick hurt me. This line moved up to 5.5 for the Tampa Bay Bucs, and that would have been a nice win. As it finished, my +3 was just enough for an overtime push as Jason Elam snuck one in through the upper left upright. Those are the breaks of early picks. Hopefully you guys followed me late and got the win anyway.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (Loss) Not only did the Bengals cover, but they won. And how did they do it? Chad 85? Nope. TJ Houshmanzadeh? Nope, he had 3 grabs for 19 yards (thanks for the fantasy help TJ). It was Cedric freaking Benson blowing up for 160+ yards of total offense. You gotta love it when Ced Benson ousts your team from any sort of playoff hope. Awesome in a losing kind of way.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Houston Texans: (Loss) Well the field goal wouldn’t have won it for me, but I have a hard time believing that Rod Bironas can’t kick a 49 yarder and get it to the posts. I know it was windy, but really? Anyway, the Texans played tougher than I expected and Andre Johnson was big brothering cats like it was his job.

Detroit Lions (+18) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) One of my picks of the week, the Lions fought tough until the last snap – weird. Nobody wants to lose them all folks, but the Lions might just do that. They lost by 10, and covered by 8. It was a close game throughout as the Lions tied it late before giving up 10 straight to assure the loss.

Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (Loss) The Packers kind of pissed around all game long, but they were still up 13-7 headed into the 4th. Unlucky for them, they gave up 2 touchdowns in the final quarter and gave away a win over the Jags. Thanks for showing up Green Bay.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+6): (WINNER) Boy, the Chiefs can’t buy a win, but they always seem to play well enough to cover. That’s my kind of team. A last quarter surge helped the Chargers (and my fantasy hopes) as Philip Rivers took over the game that the running game failed to produce in. Still, this Charger team needs some help if they want to get back to respectability next season, and it’s going to start on the line.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) Two tough teams that don’t score much. The 49ers are tough, and without their best player they still fought until the end with a chance to pull this one out. The Dolphins won but my 49ers covered the touchdown spread.

Buffalo Bills @ N.Y. Jets (-7): (Loss) The Jets were running away with this one early, but they continue to be one of the dumbest teams in the league. This team’s need to pass kind of makes me sick. Only 23 runs almost got them another loss – 35 should be their aiming point. At least 50-50 with passes. But they continue to throw the ball 30 times or more, and Brett continues to be the league leader in interceptions. Nice.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ St. Louis Rams: (Push) It was nice of the Seagulls to come out and actually play in the 2nd half. That was enough to get me the push here. That’s how bad the Rams are. On the other hand, this game was down to 1 point as the week dwindled toward kickoff and if you took the Hawks, you definitely got the win here. I hate taking teams that will lose spread points later in the week.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (-3): (Loss) Where have all the Cardinals gone? This team looks lost of late. Maybe they’ll turn it around against a Patriots team that is fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot. Ha. They sure didn’t put up any kind of resistance this weekend against the Tarvaris Jackson led Vikings.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: (WINNER) An interesting game. An interesting final call. The Steelers get the win. I win as well. These are two very good teams, no doubt about that. They are both led by a defense wins championships mentality with an offense that grinds it out. This was as close as games get.

Denver Broncos (+9) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) My gut feeling was punched. The Panthers dominated this game, and once again, when they can run they can dominate. I thought Denver would play well as a huge dog, but they played like garbage. They dropped passes, threw the ball too much, and Jay Cutler wasn’t on his game. My gut lost one to my brain in this one, weird.

New England Patriots (-7) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) “That may be the “smart pick” but something in me sees Bill Belichick realizing how crappy his team has played on West Coast trips and somehow working that in to practice to motivate them. Did I mention I hate Oakland?” The Patriots came out with guns a blazing, and the Raiders were helping them get into easy scoring situations. Randy tortured his former team to the tune of two touchdowns and an easy win for his team that isn’t run by a raging lunatic. I’m writing off Randy’s struggles in Oakland as an attempt for him to get the hell out of there. Consider his last season a success.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: (Loss) The Cowboys didn’t do much more than I thought they’d do. They were better defensively and their pressure on Ellie was too much for him to manage. A late safety gave the Boys some home, but in the end Tashard Choice was too much for the Giants. Crazy.

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (-14): (WINNER) I had an eerie feeling that a couple late touchdowns might smack me in the face in this one, but the Browns offense still hasn’t scored in 250+ minutes of game time, and that was just enough to get the Eagles a 20 point win. That also got me a W – and a much needed one at that. I pushed, but it turns out that I don’t lose any games because of it.

NFL Free Picks: Week 14

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I guess I knew it was coming, but I’d been so consistent that I was feeling like I’d go an entire year without a big loser. 5-10-1 got me right in the junk, and I dropped 5 games on my season total – these are the days that make pushing not feel so bad. I’m not doing anything different next week than I did every single game prior to this, I’m just marking this down as an anomaly. This is how I got got in Week 14. 

 

Oakland Raiders (+11) @ San Diego Chargers: (LOSS) It started off in Oakland where the Raiders came out like it was their job to S#!T the bed. I mean, look at the Chargers stats. LT needed 25 carries to accumulate 91 yards – he scored, but still, that’s a good job by Oakland’s defense. Phillip Rivers was 10-22 for just over 200 yards, but those 3 TDs really helped. Still, there’s not much to like about San Diego’s game, the Raiders just really sucked. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WIN) This was an obvious one. Thank goodness for that. 

Minnesota Vikings (-9) @ Detroit Lions: (LOSS) Well the Lions had a win in their sights and let it slip away. Minnesota is out to get me, that much I know for sure. 

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5): (LOSS) How far the Packers have fallen. This secondary gets torched for 400+ yards through the air, and Steve Slaton breaks them up for over 100 yards on the ground to boot. Not only do they get torched, but Houston wins the game with a late field goal. A terrible road team from Texas came into a cold Green Bay in a must win situation for the Packers and won. I’m lost here I guess. Ha.

Cincinnati Bengals (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) All the numbers in the world had me going with the Bengals in this one. I guess it just wasn’t meant to be this Sunday. 

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS)This game yo-yo’d back and forth for quite some time, but Drew and the Saints got it done on the ground just enough to oust the Falcons. This is going to be a sad thing to see one, maybe two of these NFC South teams out of the playoffs. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ New York Giants: (WIN) I was pretty on about this one. The Eagles needed this game and played the Giants tough two times in a row. +9 is too much to give a very talented team that needs a win. 

Cleveland Browns (+15) @ Tennessee Titans: (LOSS) Yeah, the Browns are even worst than I thought. 

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (pk): (LOSS) It’s nice to see the Bills completely collapse before the Super Bowl – that’s a new one for the old school Buffalo fans. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) Well, the Chiefs didn’t run the ball as much as I thought they would, and Thigpen completed just over half his passes – but the Chiefs still covered by a field goal. 

New York Jets (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers:  (LOSS) “I probably wouldn’t play this game for too much out of the wallet, it has the makings of a huge upset.” Well I lost, but at least I warned you. I would have never expected the Jets and Brett to play absolutely terrible in back to back important games. Nobody’s going to give them a free ride to the playoffs. 

St. Louis Rams (+14) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) Ugh – when I pick dogs like this and they lose, I feel like one big damned idiot. Oh well, on to next week!

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): (WIN) Dallas should have won this game – keep that in mind for next week’s action. The Steelers didn’t do anything offensively, and they needed Dallas to give them this game. But I’ll take it. 

New England Patriots (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks: (PUSH) New England didn’t play like a playoff team, but they did enough, just barely enough, to get a fighting Seahawks team. They didn’t do enough to cover the spread I needed to win, but at least I got my money back, more than I can say for 10 of these games. 

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): (WIN) “I don’t know how the Redskins are going to score against the Ravens. Clinton Portis is the walking wounded, he hasn’t practiced in weeks, and the Redskins haven’t been all that good with him on the field in the first place. I like the Skins, but they don’t take enough chances down field, and Santana Moss has been ignored lately. Baltimore’s defense is awesome, but it’s their offense doing enough that has me on their side. I don’t think the Redskins can hold Baltimore under 17 points, and I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than 10. That’s a cover in my book.” You have to admit, when I break a game down like this, you start to believe in me just a little bit more. 🙂

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: (LOSS) I don’t know how the Bucs gave up a million yards on the ground, but they did. I always say, if the Panthers can run, they’re a Top 5 team in the league. Well here it comes folks, watch out for the Panthers, because after Monday Night Football, they showed me they could pretty much run on anyone.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 13

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Well I didn’t kill it in Week 13, that’s for sure, but I did finish above a push, and that’s definitely the goal. I had a tough start to the week with 2 losses on Thanksgiving, but a Houston cover on Monday Night Football would get me 3 games over .500 with a nice 4-1 record with my best picks of the week – how’d it turn out in Houston? Well those Texans did alright… As for the entire week, I was 2 points away from two more wins, but you can’t win them all. Check it out! 

Thanks Giving Day Games

Tennessee Titans (-10.5) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Absolute domination, the Titans are good – the Lions are bad, and that seemed to be the theme throughout. Ha. I won this one with flying colors. 

Seattle Seahawks (+13) @ Dallas Cowboys: (loss) I was fooled, or the Seahawks just played really bad. I know this, the Hawks looked like one of the worst teams in football. Matt Hasselbeck is erratic, the receivers drop balls, the running game is non-existent, and Holmgren is still calling a “play not to lose” game. Hello Mike, you are just about retired, your team has 2 wins through Week 13, and you are still play calling like a puss ball. Get your life together. Ah, was I wrong? You bet. 

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (loss) “This one is actually very tough for me. Just letting you guys know, besides a few tweaks here and there, I basically pick teams based on what types of teams they are compared to what types of teams they struggle with. The Cardinals are a pass heavy team with a suspect rushing attack. They have a defense that can stop the run alright, but that generally struggles stopping the pass. The Eagles have a good defense, and a very talented secondary. From what I see, the Cardinals have yet to beat a team with a good secondary so far this season. But I’m still taking the Cardinals. I think they are even with the Eagles, as far as team strength goes, but Philly is in shambles a little bit, and that’s never seemed to work for Donovan or the rest of the National bird. Going against my own flow here, that’s not always a good thing, so be careful with this one.” I warned you and myself. Hopefully you listened to me (the smart analyzer) and ignored me (the go against my own game plan bettor). Silly me. The Eagles got it together and McNabb showed Andy Reid why benching him is a stupid move. The Eagles have two great players, McNabb and Westbrook. Their coach is a bit of a donkey these days. 

Sunday Games 

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) And the 49ers win outright. Haha! Mike is a good coach. He has toughness and his honesty will always get his guys to play hard. As a touchdown dog I like the Niners – especially against a crumbling Bills team. 

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) So much for the Books always winning. Everyone was on this one, including me, and the Ravens won big. You have to love a day when everyone gets a little richer and the books take a little bit of a hit. Don’t get too excited though, they’ll get you back next week! Ha. 

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (Loss – by a point) I hate the Colts. 

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) My contrasting thoughts were justified as this one came down to the wire. An amazing catch by Steve Smith and a 4th rushing touchdown by DeAngelo Williams put the Panthers up 5 and gave me a winner. Still, I felt like this one was up in the air the entire game. 

Denver Broncos (+9) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders. But I think they give the Jets trouble in Week 13. Jay Cutler is bound to play better after his terrible outing at home last week, and the Broncos have played better on the road than at home this season. 9 points is a lot, especially when one team is coming off their lowest low of the season and the other is coming off their highest high. The only play here is Denver.” The Broncos dominated this game from the get go, and besides two long runs, and one of them was a freakish roll non-tackle run, the Broncos shut down the Jets rushing attack, and sent Peyton Hillis into one of the best run defenses in the league and came out with 120 yards and a score. It’s amazing how good and then how bad Denver can be. Luckily I had them on a good night. 

Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams: (No pick in this game, I didn’t get back to the site after Thanks Giving, and then forgot to come back in before Sunday’s game and pick this one – my bad for sure)

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): (Loss by a point) This was my second half point loss, and that always hurts. That’s how a 11-4 week turns into 9-6 – think about how much different those two records are. The Bucs had it at a 10 point game, but then went into run down the clock mode. That got them a tie, and they needed a couple Drew Brees interceptions to get a field goal to go ahead, and then to end the game. Just missed on this one. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Redskins just can’t score the ball and the Giants shut down Clinton Portis. I was never worried about this one. 

Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5): (Loss) The Falcons continue to surprise me, and the Chargers continue to disappoint me. Atlanta has a good coaching staff that gets their players to play tough every week. Michael Turner went for 120 rushing yards compared to LT’s 20 something… I’m sure MT loved that. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) “I don’t think the Pats defense can hold Pittsburgh under 24 points, and I don’t see Pittsburgh giving up more than a couple touchdowns. If you add those two things together, and I inevitably do, you have to be on the Steelers here.” 33-10 Steelers. This game went just like I thought it would go. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) I love it when my dogs win outright. I expected Tyler Thigpen to have a big game leading the Chiefs to victory, but it was a familiar leader, Larry Johnson, that went old school on the Raiders and used his legs to split this season series. 

Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Loss) The Vikings seem to be figuring it out in the secondary, and that should keep them in first place in the NFC North. I missed on this one. 

Monday Night Game

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-3): (WINNER) It was really nice to get this one. From what I hear the “sharp” money and the public money had the Jaguars winning this one. It’s good to be the extreme minority, at least in this one case. This one more win made a tough week a little bit sweeter, giving me three more games in the green, and getting over the push for the first time in a while. I definitely enjoyed this beatdown. 

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 12

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The second week in a row resulting in a vig enforced slap in the face. Still, I can’t be that sad, the number of losing weeks so far this season are few and far between. Still, this is the second week in a row with 8 wins and 8 losses as I’m basically pushing my bike down the street. This is how the week went down. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10): (WINNER) This game was actually pretty close, but kudos to the Steelers for working hard to cover the spread. It seemed like the refs were all over the Bengals, taking the underdog in the Pitt game for the second straight week – but Tomlin was ready to fight to the end this time around, and fight the Steelers did. It was nice to start off the week with a W. 

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5): (Loss) Alright, so the Titans got smacked around a little bit by the Jets, but people can stop saying that the Jets are the best team in football because they beat the undefeated Titans. Joke. That’s not how sports work, the only time that really matters is in single elimination post season play or in college football when a top 2 ranking is on the line. In the NFL regular season, anybody can beat anyone else any given week – see Cleveland stomping the Giants earlier this season. The Jets win, and I lose, that’s what matters here I guess. 

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) I didn’t see a Dolphins sweep of the Patriots, and reasonably so. This game was closer than the final score, but no matter how close the game was, it seemed like Matt Cassel was doing anything he wanted to do, and the Pats were in control of this contest. Amazing how the weeks have changed, and how Matt’s new salary next season keeps going up and up. 

Chicago Bears (-7.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) Matt Forte had his hands all over this win – he tormented the Rams, a team that can’t tackle and can’t block – oh, and can’t seem to put anything together to get open anywhere. They are bad, and the Bears smacked around a bad team on Sunday. 

Houston Texans (+3) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) Sage didn’t throw for 350, but he had a nice game against a week Browns secondary. But the real deal was Cleveland’s offense that so closely resembled a hobbled and anemic pigeon. Looking for something, anything, and just hobbling around aimlessly while doing so. Somebody tell the Browns that Kellen Winslow is their best receiving option. New coaching staff in Cleveland next season – that’s a guarantee. 

San Francisco 49ers (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys: (Loss – barely) And everything went the Cowboys way in this one – every single stinking thing. The Niners had turnovers and close plays fall to the side, everything went against them, and they didn’t cover by a point. Ridiculous. I’m taking the loss, but I was definitely on the right side in this game. If the 49ers convert one of their early 1st and goals then I cover with ease. Those bastards! 

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) THe Bills made easy work of the Chiefs and they did it by turning Trent Edwards into Vince Young. Nice work. KC really struggles defensively and the Bills needed this win. All those things were obvious on Sunday.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) The Bucs tried to bring out the chest pain, but believe it or not, I still had a lot of hope when I was down 17-0 in this game. I even said to my buddy, “Call me crazy, but I still have Tampa winning by two touchdowns if you want to make that side bet?” He didn’t accept, and rightfully so, because the Bucs came back to even further embarrass the pathetic Lions. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) “There’s a lot about Baltimore I like here. Their toughness. The fact that they played their worst game of the year last week. Lots of things. But,” Damn the but, and that’s about where I took it on this one. I felt alright down 3 with McNabb playing his worst half of the season, figuring he’d turn it around in the second half, but I knew I was in deep when Kevin Kolb came out on the field. I hate watching the Eagles. I lost this one big time.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “When teams force the Jaguars to throw, the Jaguars don’t win.” Write that down somewhere and save it for a rainy day. 

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (Loss) The Falcons continue to impress me. The Panthers actually ran the ball pretty well, but Atlanta was having none of it, and continued their elite play while at home this season. This Falcons team might be very good for a very long time. 

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-9): (Loss) I hate the Broncos more than I hate the Eagles, Seahawks, and Raiders (combined). How this talented team gets smoked by the freaking Raiders, in Denver, in a rivalry game, is absolutely beyond me. What a joke. I definitely was wrong about this one. 

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (Loss) Another loss by a point or less. Thanks Seattle for getting that 4th quarter score. I wonder if Seattle will get back to being good when Holmgren leaves? I know this, there’s no way they’ll be as soft as they are now. Still, the Redskins couldn’t pull out a cover for me in Seattle – that half point was the end of me. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: (WINNER) The Giants are really good. Arizona was close in this one. It was a very good game. But the Giants have it defensively where the Cardinals don’t, and that’s a big deal. 

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5): (loss)  The Chargers played like absolute pusses late in this game, and the Colts took advantage of a dumb timeout call that nobody talked about on the Sunday Night broadcast. With 1:30 left on the clock, after coming up just short on 3rd down, the Chargers call an immediate timeout to think about their decision. Nice – save Peyton Manning and company 30 seconds. That’s always a brilliant idea. The Chargers lose by a field goal, and my overtime chances of a win went right down the drain. Brilliant. 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: (Loss) The Saints continue to hit me where it counts. I’m pretty sure they check to see if I’m taking them or not, and they play accordingly (opposite of course). This game was close in the first half, but then Drew Brees played like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers played like Ryan Leaf – it was tough sledding after half time.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 11

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Well donkey balls – so much for 11 in Week 11 – but I didn’t lose 11 either, so my strong season didn’t take too big of a hit. Interested in seeing if I was helped or screwed by the idiot official that made up a rule so that the Steelers wouldn’t cover the spread? With the way I worded it, I bet you can guess – that joke call pushed me on the week – Eight wins, eight losses, but as it turns out I should have been 9-7… This is how my weekend went. 

New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) Well I was right about the outcome but wrong about the way it would happen. So much for a low scoring affair, these Thursday Night games really don’t see a lot of defense played – but Kris Jenkins did do work against the Pats run game and basically shut it completely down. Hence Cassel throwing for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anyway, the Jets win in overtime and I win outright. 

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5): (LOSS) And the streak of losses begin to roll on. The Falcons didn’t really dominate on the ground, as the Broncos are really picking it up with their back-ups in there. Denver played pretty good football and Jay Cutler walked the ball down and threw a lazer for the win. Roddy White dropped a game tying touchdown pass, but it wouldn’t have covered for me anyway. The Falcons lose their first game at home, and I lose too. 

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10): (LOSS) Interesting. This game proves that anything can happen in football, and from week to week, anything will. That’s all I have to say about this loss. 

Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “When Houston can run, they’ll be alright.” Admit it, this game was a lot closer than most of you thought, and that 6 point Colts win got me a win with the Texan side of this game. Houston ran all over Indy, as Steve Slaton had a huge rushing day and Ahman Green found himself in the end zone twice – probably by accident, but still. This is a game I really needed. 

Chicago Bears (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSS) The outcome of this game really surprised me. The Packers killed the Bears – but I’m not willing to say that the Pack is better than Chicago – just one of those games I think. Tough week for me and THOSE games. 

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5): (LOSS) The Chiefs actually played pretty well and had a nice chance to win this game. 4-5 dropped passes killed a normally sure handed KC team and some questionable play calling put them in a bit of a bind. They ended up losing by 10, which wasn’t enough to make me a winner, but I think the Chiefs are a solid betting group moving forward. 

Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ New York Giants: (LOSS)  The Giants are very good. The Ravens had played close with everyone, been in every game, and done very well against the run. The Giants basically made them look foolish, they won by 20, and this game wasn’t that close – did I mention that the 3 Giant runners did just about everything they wanted to do? Well they did – and Brandon Jacobs took his 11 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns – that guy is a man. I lost again. 

Detroit Lions (+15) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) Detroit played even better than the final score indicated, and besides the fact that they are Detroit and anything can happen, I was never worried about this cover. How bad has Jake Delhomme been lately? Luckily for him, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both plowed past 100 yards with ease. It was a dominate ground attack by Carolina, but not enough to cover against my pick here. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): (WINNER) The Bucs won in an ugly game. Jeff Garcia was legit, probably as accurate as he’s been all year, and the Bucs did just enough to oust the Vikings and cover for me here.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) Damn the Eagles! Damn ties! Damn Philly basically making every game a must win situation because they couldn’t take care of business against the 1-8 (now 1-8-1) Bengals. Gross game. 

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): (WINNER) A round of applause for my man Mike Singletary. If you don’t think this guy will get his players to win, you are going to be tricked. 

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) The Cards tried to lose this one, but Kurt and Anquan and Larry Fitz were just too beastly for the Cardinals. A 26-20 win wasn’t pretty, but it was enough for the public to reap the benefits here. 

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) The Titans made it close for most of the game, but Kerry Collins looked like he had enough of 8 and 9 in the box, so he tossed more than a couple passes to Justin Gage, and the undervalued wide receiver made the most of it. The Titans won by 10 in Jacksonville – and the public rejoiced! 

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4): (LOSS 0- Kind Of) Not that Steeler bettors deserved to win this game, but they should have. Some sorry excuse for a ref took a correct call and turned it around when it didn’t matter to anybody but people trying to cover spreads, and millions of dollars went to the books – what a joke. If you saw this game, you know what I’m talking about. If you didn’t see this game, you will certainly here about an error that cost bettors millions of dollars. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+2): (LOSS) This game was gross. Had to stop watching it at half time and go shoot hoops with the townies. But Dallas pulled it out, despite poor performances by everyone this side of Marion Barber. (MBIII is a BEAST). The Redskins tried hard not to lose and it definitely showed in their selective play calling and lack of chances down field. This is a Dallas secondary that plays very well close to the line of scrimmage and very poorly down field. Come on Jim Zorn! 

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills: I like the Browns in this one. I think the Bills will have a hard time rushing against the Browns front line, and I think Brady Quinn gives the Browns enough accuracy to stay on the field that much longer. He didn’t look as great as everyone likes to say he did, last week against a bad Broncos defense, but he is accurate enough – and that’s huge for the Browns. This should be a close one, like most Brown and Bill games, so those 5.5 points should come in handy on Monday Night.

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 10

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I only took 13 games because there was no line out for the Colts/Steelers game headed into the weekend. But, I still had 10 wins as a goal, and sure enough, I stomped the yard in Week 10, busting out double digit wins and losing just 3 contests. (One absolute robbery when the Broncos but up Black Jack in the 4th quarter on Thursday Night). Anyway, 10 wins folks, this is how the hammer hit nails.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3): I took 21 points on the chin in the 4th quarter, and the Browns were still driving to push the spread. I’m sorry folks, I’ll take this loss, but I will credit one hell of a bad beat on Thursday Night. I picked this one on the spot, and I would take the Browns -3 at home against the Broncos and win 80% of the time. This just happened to be one of those 20%. Pooey nuts.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions: (Winner) My analysis was on point again in this one – go back to my Free Picks article if you don’t believe me.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears: (Winner) The Titans struggled a bit in this one, and Rex Grossman (despite boos and bad press) played pretty well. However, it wasn’t enough, and watching this game I never was too worried. The Titans cover and still have zero losses this year.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-3.5): (Winner) “I know this isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots, and these aren’t J.P. Losman’s Bills, but New England hasn’t lost to Buffalo since 2003 – What was going on in 2003 last time Buffalo got a W against New England? Well, Tara Reid might have been considered good looking, Matt Ryan was playing high school football somewhere, and this great country was just about to give President George W. Bush one more run and complete destruction… That’s a while ago. If you do the math, carry the three, that’s 9 straight wins for the Pats. But Buffalo is better this year, no doubt bout that, so I’ll look for some more conclusive evidence one way or another. The Pats have one loss at home this year, to Miami in the day Ronnie Brown ruled the earth, but I’m not ever sold based solely on homefield business. I need some more. I pointed out last week that New England plays pretty well against teams that do one thing well (either pass or run), but the Bills seem to do both things with some success, so I have no push there. The Patriots should have won last week against the Colts, but a couple dropped passes (Gaffney’s for sure) and that ultimate dump penalty late (thank you Dave Thomas, now get back to pimping Wendy) gave the game to the Colts. I still think Matt Cassel is playing good enough football, and the Bills are coming back to reality a bit. Buffalo’s only “good” win came against a 3-5 San Diego team. That’s right, 5 wins, one of them at home against San Diego – the other four against St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. You sold on the Bills on the road against a Patriots team that just lost a game they should have won? Me neither. I’ll take the Pats.” This analysis was good enough to relive. I win again!!!

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: (Winner) I wasn’t too fond of this game, but it looks like I had the right idea. Baltimore ran well and stuffed the Texans rushing attack. Houston didn’t come to win this game, and win they did not.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+1): (Winner) I win again!!! This one went like I thought it would, but I expected a little more from the Saints defense. What a transformation in Atlanta, huh?

St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-8): (Winner) You bet. Rams can’t play ball when the run is stuffed. Consider it stuffed. Thomas Jones took advantage of one of the worst run defenses in the league. I win again!

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9): (Loss) The Hawks came to play, and Miami wasn’t in a hurry in this one. I lost, but it was one of few my kind hearted readers – one of few.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Winner) This game didn’t go like I expected, but Adrian Peterson did crush Green Bay’s front 7, and 8 for that matter – and got the Vikings a 1 point win. Aaron Rodgers was under pressure all night, and those two safeties really came back to hurt. But who do the Vikings really get to thank for this win? Try the man calling plays in Green Bay. With a 55 yard field goal in sight and about 1 minute and 10 seconds left on the clock, the Packers run 2 run plays that get about 3 yards – leaving a good kicker a 51 yard shot at the win. Do the Packers know that when a field goal gets over 48 yards the percentage of good kicks drops in half? Idiots. They had plenty of time to make the field goal easier, and Mason just pushes it. It was good from 48, I’m telling you. Anyway – hahaha – I win, you lose for being stupid.

Carolina Panthers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: (Winner) Despite trying as hard as he could to get the Raiders to cover, Jake Delhomme wasn’t allowed to play defense – thank God!!! The Panthers covered behind a couple nice runs by DeAngelo Williams and some good defense against a terrible offense.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “I have to take the Chiefs getting more than two touchdowns against a Charger team that has one win by more than 14 all season long. The Chiefs are bad, but they aren’t Oakland bad… Regardless of talent, these teams always play each other tough, it’s just the way it is. In fact, not one game in the last 10 meetings has the winner won by more than two touchdowns. Not once.” I must say, in a week where favorites did the dirty work, I had this one right on the nail folks.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (Winner) You bet – just about how I expected it to go, but the Eagles were better than I thought. Still, their inability to run the ball against good defenses might be the end of them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9): (Loss) Well, the 49ers were 2 yards away from ending my latest survivor pool run – luckily I pulled it out. Unluckily, so did all those people that took the Chargers. Regardless, this one was too close for me to cover, ending my Week 10 wins at 10 – Eleven Ws in Week 11 anyone?

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 9

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After a 4-4 morning in Week 9, my undefeated afternoon brought me to 8-4 before the night games came…  Sunday Night gave me a pretty good number with a mediocre Colts team being favored by 5.5 over the Pats. I took the Pats and was 9-4 heading into Monday Night’s action. As it turned out, Week 9 would get me only 9 wins, and by only I mean 9 great freaking wins… 9 in week 9 – you have to love that!  

New York Jets (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) “The Bills haven’t won a game against a good run defense yet this year. Seriously, Arizona and Miami are both solid run defenses – the Bills have two losses, one loss in Miami, one loss in Arizona. They are undefeated at home this season, against the spread as well. The Jets gave the ball to the Chiefs numerous times and still came out on top last week, but they were playing the Chiefs. I understand that the only road win New York has this year was in Miami in Week 1, and they got beat by Oakland last time they went traveling (gag reflex there). All that being said, I like that the Jets can stop the run (4th in the league with just over 80 yards given up per game) – and I like how that corilates with the trouble Buffalo has had with defenses that make running tough sledding. So, I’ll take the Jets and all 6 of those points in this divisional “HUGE” game.” Yeah – that’s about how it went. Lynch was the Bills leading rusher with 9 carries for 16 yards and the Jets stepped up and played well in a big game. Still, they need to run the rock more than they have been. 

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER) The Lions have played better on the road than at home, they are getting 14 points at 5 Dimes. Orlovsky has proven to be a decent option, and Calvin Johnson is borderline unguardable. I like the Bears to win this game, and bring the Lions to 0-8 during the first half of the season (probably not winning 10 games like Jon Kitna says, just my observation, but who knows). However, I do like Detroit to play better than a two touchdown dog to a Bears team that definitely has flaws on either side of the ball. The Bears should not be favored by two scores against anyone in the league.” It’s nice to start the week with two perfect analysis write ups of each game, however, the next four didn’t quite go the way I was hoping… 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) Gross. The Jaguars couldn’t run, they couldn’t throw, overall the whole deal was pretty pathetic. Chad Johnson picked up two touchdowns on the day, though, it was nice to see him back on the board. What’s wrong with everyone in the AFC South besides the Titans?

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (PK): (LOSS) The Browns just choked away this win – they were up 27-20 going into the 4th before giving up a field goal, and offensive touchdown, and then a pick 6 to Terrell Suggs and the Ravens defense. This was a tough game and Browns has a win in sight. They scored enough points to where I thought they’d get the win. And then the wheels came off. This Browns team is who we thought they were, overrated. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (LOSS) The Bucs scored 14 points in the 4th and they needed every single one of those just to get into overtime, and that includes their 2 point conversion with less than 20 seconds on the clock. In overtime, the Bucs got a big play from Jeff Garcia to Michael Clayton, getting them into field goal range and Matt Bryant put up the game winner. Tampa didn’t come to play early in this game, and it showed. Still, they were good enough to make survivor picks everywhere smile. I lose and frown. 

Houston Texans (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (LOSS) Minnesota had Matt Schaub go down in a first half that they didn’t play too well in. That being said, I’m not sure how much different the game would have been had Schaub not gotten injured. Sage Rosenfels is one of the better backups in the league, and he did a good job in relief. Adrian Peterson was a beast in the 2nd half and just wouldn’t let the Texans defense get off the field. A 4th down sack with a minute left gave the Vikings the win. Close, but no cigar. 

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) And the Cardinals win easily. They are much better than they’ve been over the past few seasons. Their confidence at home and on the road is apparent, showing when they absolutely hammered the Rams today. Good win for me. 

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (WINNER) This game went just how I thought it would go. I saw two teams that were very equal, and had the Titans winning by a field goal. Equal? Sure, this game went into OT, but it was the Titans consistent attack that gave them the win. Still, my Packers bet covered, making me a happy man. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: (WINNER) This game was interesting. Miami controlled it throughout, but they didn’t really do anything great. Ronnie Brown only had 59 yards on 20 carries, and Pennington threw 40 times to get 281 yards and a pick, without a touchdown. Four big field goals for Dan Carpenter really helped the Fins out, but Denver’s pass happy turnover prone attack is really what gave teh Fins a win here, and that tough run defense didn’t hurt. Either way, I took this W outright. 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-8): (WINNER) “Too much defensive pressure by the Giants will absolutely make Brad Johnson a sitting duck. (Brad left at half because of his inability to do anything worth while) The Giants are too tough against the run to allow Marion Barber much room to explode (Barber had his worst day of the season, rushing 19 times for 54 yards, and catching just one pass for -12 yards). New York should win this one in the 24-10 range.” Something like that, huh? The giants won 35-14, a little better than I thought, and they looked good against a Dallas team that couldn’t pose a down field threat since Tony Romo went down a few weeks ago. Thank God for a bye week, eh Boys fans? 

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) I thought this game would be a little tighter, but my lean was easily in the right direction. The Falcons didn’t commit stupid turnovers and penalties, and thus their youth didn’t hurt them. They ran the ball all day long and took advantage of some nice plays by Matt Ryan. Atlanta won easily, I win again!

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) I know it doesn’t look like the “sharp” bet here, as just about 75% of the public is taking the Eagles, but I can’t see another side. The Seahawks got two 50 yard touchdown catches from Leonard Weaver of all people (last week). Those were Seneca Wallace’s only touchdown passes and almost half of his total passing yardage. Seattle’s defense still doesn’t do enough to disrupt a good offense, and the Eagles (with Brian Westbrook) have one of the most efficient and mistake free units in the league (they didn’t have a penalty against the Hawks and controlled the ball like it was their job). The Hawks may be without Lofa Tatupu, and that would be a huge hit. The Hawks may have killed a disfunctional 49er team last week, and no win is easy in the NFL, but I see things coming a lot tougher for the Hawks in this one. The Hawks have 2 wins, to the great 49ers last week (after losing to them once already) and to the tough and gritty St. Louis Rams prior to Haslet taking over. They’ve been destroyed by “good” teams that they’ve played. Buffalo beat them by 24, the Giants ran over them by 38, the Packers only won by 10 – but it wasn’t that close – trust me, the Bucs also won by 10 – but that also wasn’t even close. I hate going with 75% of the public, but 6.5 looks nice from my pedestal.” What can I say, this one was just as easy as it looked. The Eagles didn’t score a lot of touchdowns, but they controlled the clock and busted out field goals all day long. The Seahawks had a 90 yard pss for a touchdown on their first play from scrimmage – they never scored again and Wallace threw for less than 90 yards the rest of the day. 

New England Patriots (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) These two teams were awkwardly similar during the game, and New England definitely had their chances before shooting themselves in the foot with a late hit penalty (thanks back-up tight end David Thomas), but things happened. Honestly, it was probably better for my cover to have the Pats have to go for it on 4th down, and give it back to the Colts with no time outs left. Indy ran out the clock and basically guaranteed me this game. I win again, the Colts get to .500 and will possibly make them a good value to go against next week, we shall see. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (-1): There was a lot to look at in this one, and if you read my analysis, you could see that I wasn’t feeling good about the Skins, but having to lean one way or another, I sided with the home team. Well, Washington pooped the proverbial bed, and now they go into the bye week struggling. Those are the breaks. Washington had a couple things go there way and it seemed like good old Mo jumped ship headed into halftime. After that the Skins were flat, Jason threw his first pick, followed by his second, and the game was over. Byron Leftwich carried the Steelers – you heard that right. Sometimes you have tough days, I certainly did. On the other hand, McCain looked like a turd, so that’s always refreshing… my friends.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 8

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6-8 – but I’m telling you, if you watched the Tampa game or the Falcons game, you have to see where I was coming from – I still think I capped those games perfectly – but that’s the way the china shatters, and I ended up 2 games under .500 this week. Shame on me. On the bright side, my three best picks of the week were 2-1 (one loss was Tampa) – but overall I need to be better next week – here’s where things went wacko in Week 8.

Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) Tough call for me, definitely. You all know what I think about the Raiders sans Lane Kiffin, but they played so well last week against the Jets. From what I see this game will be a defensive struggle, and I’m betting that 7 ends up being too much. I know the Ravens played a really good game against the Dolphins, and I don’t think either team is legit, but defense keeps this close.

Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) This is why. I love the Panthers, but only if they can run the ball effectively. I think the Cardinals will prove a tough opponent against Carolina’s ground game, and when that is the case, the Panthers are just average. I expected the Panthers to win the West, but I didn’t think they’d start the season 5-2… Now it’s looking so. The Panthers lost to Tampa and Minnesota – the Cards aren’t that good against the run, but they are solid.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) “Maybe the books know something I don’t.” Yeah, apparently they did, for example, there would be a handful of penalties that basically made it possible for the Cowboys to do anything worthwhile. I hate referees. Yeah, I may be complaining a bit much here, but that game was a joke – the Bucs didn’t come out attacking, and the Cowboys defense played well, but this one was won and lost by striped jerseys. Great.

Washington Redskins (-7) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) I’ll take that point. I needed it bad.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): (WINNER) Key mistakes destroyed the Dolphins chances in Week 7. They didn’t play well overall, obviously a little frustrated by what happened in Week 6. I thin the Dolphins step back into the winners circle this week and the Bills go to 5-2. Miami has shown me that they are solid, and when they play mistake free football they can win tough games. Buffalo is a better match-up than Baltimore was, and I think they win this one at home.

St. Louis Rams (+8) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) “I think the Rams are a tough match-up for New England. Matt Cassel is prone to mistakes, he gets sacked a lot, the Rams defense is a completely different group now that Little is back in action at defensive end. The Rams have their running game exploding back to life and the whole team seems to have more confidence now that Haslett is the head guy.” Ha. Even with Steven Jackson not playing at the last moment and Leonard Little going down with a bad hamstring in the 2nd quarter, the Rams still covered this one. I can only imagine what this game would have looked like had those two characters played.

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) “These overseas games are always weird. Last year the Giants barely won in a gross game, and I don’t know what to expect this time around. I’d say go with the Chargers because of the injury woes attacking the Saints, and how Colston and Shockey obviously aren’t back to full health. Oh, and Bush is out. The Chargers will likely get back Chambers, and LT is getting healthier and healthier. Same with Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson has been really good, and Phillip Rivers is having a great season for the Chargers. Then again, this game is in another country. I’d stay away, but if you’re looking for an edge, I’d take the Chargers – I think they are 6 points better than the Chargers on your normal day.” This game was weird. I think the Saints probably traveled a little better than the Chargers and that gave them the win. LT blew up and Rivers looked solid, but the Saints still came out victorious. This guy named Drew Brees, he can really do some work.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-12.5): (LOSS) “Shoot, the Jets as a big favorite is scary, but I don’t see them playing like garbage after losing an OT game to the freaking Raiders. They are better than that, if still a little overrated.” The again, maybe they aren’t. Who have the Jets beaten this year? New York needs to go back to pounding the run and stop making so many stupid throws… Ugh-hmm… Brett.

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (LOSS) The Falcons should have covered this game. Brian Westbrook freakishly stayed in bounds on a last minute long touchdown run that didn’t matter at all. If you watched the game you know what I’m talking about, this was one of those games I capped right that ended on the wrong side. I had a couple of those this week. The game before this one (Jets) and the one after this (Jaguars) are not examples of that.

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): (LOSS) “Cleveland hasn’t looked good enough (sans one single game) for me to take them here. I don’t like this line, but I just can’t take that ridiculous organization – not a huge play, but a slight lean here.” I hope you headed my advice to leave this game alone. If you didn’t, like myself, then you lost the game outright. I don’t know, but Cleveland’s run defense came to play. If they can beat the Ravens next week they move to 4-4 after their terrible start. Sound like anyone from last season? S A I N T S…

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Bengals are winless, and that’s scary because they are more talented than that. However, they lost probably their best linebacker for the season. Carson Palmer is not playing this week. Houston can’t mess around, as they saw what happens when they allowed Detroit right back in the game last week. Still, Houston is solid and they should run all over the Bengals. Take them to run away with this one.” 35-6… Ah, that makes me feel a little better, you know, like I know what I’m doing.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): (LOSS) I’m not even going to talk about this game. I turned it on just in time to see the Steelers DE/Linebacker snap the ball over the head of his punter to tie the game up. I knew things could only go up from there… Uh, I was wrong. Pittsburgh looked terrible in the 4th.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): (LOSS) The Niners were brutal, but the Hawks didn’t do good things to win this game. They took free turnovers that Mike Martz and that pathetic offense gave them. They couldn’t stop Frank Gore, but that’s okay, because Martz does that every single week for San Fran’s opponent. Seneca Wallace completed 2 long touchdown passes to his full back, Leonard Weaver. How often do you think that will ever happen again? Those two plays accounted for just about half of his passing yardage. The Niners sure sucked, and I got this one wrong.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): (WINNER) This was an interesting game. The Colts looked like there were ending the Titans perfect run, but it all came crashing down in the 4th quarter. The Titans didn’t do much well on Monday Night, but they did take advantage of some big Indy mistakes. Manning looks a little lopsided, or at least his passes do (his face is weird too). Anyway, the Titans got me a must cover on Monday Night, bringing me to 6-8 in a week that should have been 8-6 at least.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 7

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Push me on a swing. Push me in the water. Push me in front of a train, just don’t push me in sports. I’ll tell you, coming out of a week even is almost as bad as losing. You don’t get to be right, but you don’t get the glory of being tricked either. Just flat out .500. This is how my .500 week held on tight. 

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.” Well 34-7 is one play away from a shut-out, and the cover was just as easy as I could have imagined. I hope you followed me on this freebee. 

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): (WINNER) The Bills roughed up the Chargers offensive line, holding San Diego’s star running back (LT) to just 41 yards rushing on 14 carries. Fred Jackson (9 for 33) and Marshawn Lynch (19 for 70) rushed for over 100 yards and Trent Edwards picked apart the Chargers secondary completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards. The Bills were just tougher and the Chargers looked like they played tired. Weird. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WINNER) “I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.” But it took a lot of Viking mistakes to finish themselves off, that’s for sure. Minnesota probably should have won this game, but they couldn’t punt, they had penalties, they fumbled, and they were just out of sorts. These teams put up 80+ points of offense on Sunday, odd thing coming from two offenses that don’t usually spark up the scoreboard. The Bears won though, and I’ll take it. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) “The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope.” I’d say the score, 38-10, kind of explains what I was saying here. The Steelers did anything they wanted, and Mewelde Moore ran like Lola on Sunday. Big win here. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): (LOSS) I liked the Dolphins to match the Ravens physicality – I apparently was wrong to like that. Ray Lewis and his helmeted avengers put a stop to that wildcat offense and took advantage of some Dolphin turnovers – it’s tough to lose the ones you like, but that was the case here. You never feel quite as bad when the chick that you don’t really like dumps you, right, but when the hot brunette that does that thing with her tongue dumps you – well, you get the picture. No? Right, that’s because I’m being obtuse. Anyway, onward march! 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (WINNER) “Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.” I’m telling you, take my advice on these Panthers for the rest of the season – if they can run the ball effectively, they are a top notch team. Just that threat opens up so many things for them, gives the defense more rest, and there probably isn’t a team they can’t beat when running the ball. Cap them like that and you’ll win some money. 

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): (WINNER) “Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.” Right? You bet – I have hit these Giants and these 49ers right on the head. The Giants won by 12, and it was just enough to cover, but it was closer than you expected. Why’d the Niners lose? Oh, I know, Mike Martz dropped O’Sully back 35 times, he only got to throw 28 times, and that was still enough for 2 picks. The other times he dropped back? Sacks galore and 4 fumbles, all lost. Keep it up Mr. Martz, opponents can’t thank you enough. Jackass. 

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: (LOSS) Well, the Raiders won. I don’t know how this happened. The Jets needed to go to Thomas Jones even more. Oakland played better D, and maybe they’ve found something. No, I doubt it. 

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: (LOSER) Shame on me for taking this disfunctional family – well, at least I get to watch this bad reality TV show – who’s next on “The Football team is WRONG?” – unbelievable, these guys. Steven Jackson had enough of my “running like Shaunna Alexander” comments, and he went berserk on Cowboy defenders. What to think of this? Hmmmm…. 

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSER) I really took this one in the face. Green Bay rocked Peyton’s world with confusing tactics and pressure. Do the Colts suck or what? I can’t quite figure them out. 

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): (LOSS) Welcome to the bad-beat club. The Lions got obliterated to start this game out, and the Texans just held on tight. It almost cost them, but it did cost me. This was the first of two tough ones I should have won. 

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): (LOSS)  This one makes me puke a little just thinking about it. The Hawks didn’t have 100 yards of offense midway through the 4th quarter. Wallace had about 30 yards passing and Julius Jones was at about 12 yards – both were leading their teams in the respective categories. But the Bucs were fine with “just winning” and that thinking got me a loss as the Bucs won by 10. DAMN IT!!! 

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown.” This game was gross and at one point the Derek Anderson was 4 of 16 passing. Anderson had completed just as many passes as Braylon Edwards had dropped. Still, the Browns cover and I win. Weird. 

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: (LOSS) I was wrong – as it turned out, some early turnovers killed anything the Broncos tried to build up and Sammy Morris showed how really bad the Broncos front 7 is. Do you think they’ll be better or worse without Champ and Boss Bailey? Sign me up for any runner playing them from here on out. And the Pats – are they going to start being more consistent or is it coin flipping time?

All that leaves me at .500 for the week – piss. I’ll take it like a man.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 6

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I didn’t win another week, but headed into Monday Night I needed an underdog Cleveland cover to finish a tough start Week 6 at .500 – it’s always nice to pull out of a week at even after going 0-4 to start your morning. 

Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) The Ravens laid a big freaking egg, and even if the Colts played terrible they would have covered this game. 3 points? Ugh – 5 Joe Flacco turnovers didn’t help. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ New York Jets: (LOSS) But, I picked this game with the understanding that Carson Palmer would play. I told you all in my Five for Friday that the Bengals are no longer a good bet at +6 – I’m taking this loss, but only because of my good nature – there is no way I would have taken Cinci without Palmer. But as you saw, this game was not walk through for the Jets, it was close throughout. 

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) The Panthers laid a huge egg as well – looks like I was picking some chickens this week. The Bucs came out and slapped the Panthers around pretty good. 

Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) Damn Chicago! No, really, there were some plays in this game that just magically went the Falcons way. Matt Ryan had a huge day through the air, but he through a couple passes that were sure thing interceptions, jut the Bears couldn’t manage to get their hands wrapped around the ball. I watched this game from kickoff until Jason Elam’s game winning field goal, and Atlanta must have had 3rd and long almost 10 times during the game. They got it every freaking time. That’s weird. I think I picked the right side here, but my 4th straight loss came hard. 

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): (WIN) Finally a win. The Saints anhilated the Raiders, just like I thought they would. Lane Kiffin was a good coach, maybe dumb dumb will see that by the time Oakland gets blown out for the 10th straight time. 

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): (LOSS) Detroit should have won this game, and obviously they covered easily. Minnesota looks absolutely lost and if it wasn’t for a gift pass interference call by some hopeless zebra, the Lions would have their first win – on the road against their division rival. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Houston Texas: (WIN) I thought this game might come down to the wire. Houston got it done with 3 seconds to go, but my Dolphins still covered. That’s what I like to call brilliant. I was hoping Houston would get a win, their talent deserves more than what they’ve got in the win column thus far, and I was also hoping to cover. Both happened Sunday. 

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13.5): (LOSS) Rams win. Yep, 4 fumble turnovers for the Redskins, and the Rams (thought they didn’t do anything all day offensively) get the win in Washington, crushing survivor pool hopes everywhere. This huge spread should have ran me off – what was I thinking?

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) When Maurice Jones Drew gets the ball 20+ times the Jags are almost always going to win. Now if they’d just realize that. Jacksonville walked into Denver and handled the Broncos. They were more physical and took advantage of the Broncos soft defensive front. Oh, and the Broncos secondary is bad too. Weird. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WIN) It was sure close going into the 4th quarter, but Philly snapped out of it, and took advantage of some Mike Martz play calling and what do you know, I get another much needed win for this week. 

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) The Cardinals were apparently the play here. Dallas looked lost, and you have to wonder how they’ll do with Tony Romo (their most consistent player) out for 4 weeks. Hmmm… Arizona took this game one a blocked punt in overtime, and my dreams of a last second overtime touchdown for the Cowboys were dismantled. But at least the Cowboys lost, that will make a family Lucky Lester happy as usual. 

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WIN) “Stay away from Washington sports.” The Huskies had a bye week, but the Cougars lost to Oregon State by about 50 easily failing to cover in that game. The Hawks played without Matt Hasselbeck and they looked bad. The Packers did pretty much anything they wanted, and the Hawks are really looking bad lately. 

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5): (WIN) And this one was easy breazy. The Chargers came out and did anything they wanted to do. They threw deep, they threw shallow, and while LT continued to struggle with his yards per carry, he even looked reasonably close to the Old LT on Sunday Night. I’ll take this one and wonder about the Patriots moving forward. 

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (+9): Mistake? Maybe so. But “…the value is on Cleveland in this one. They play close games and they have talent. They will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and New York is coming off one of their best games ever. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and while the Browns have stomped me down a couple times this season, I have to believe they’ll play up to their potential on Monday Night at home against the Super Bowl Champs. I also think this line should be somewhere close to 3.5 to 5 points, so 4 points of value is the way I have to go. Tough to pick against the Giants after the way they’ve started, but I’m not too amazed by their weak competition thus far – so maybe I’m right about this one after-all.” Well, I picked this one right on the button and it brought me to even on the week. I’ll take it. On to Week 7!!!