After a 4-4 morning in Week 9, my undefeated afternoon brought me to 8-4 before the night games came… Sunday Night gave me a pretty good number with a mediocre Colts team being favored by 5.5 over the Pats. I took the Pats and was 9-4 heading into Monday Night’s action. As it turned out, Week 9 would get me only 9 wins, and by only I mean 9 great freaking wins… 9 in week 9 – you have to love that!
New York Jets (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) “The Bills haven’t won a game against a good run defense yet this year. Seriously, Arizona and Miami are both solid run defenses – the Bills have two losses, one loss in Miami, one loss in Arizona. They are undefeated at home this season, against the spread as well. The Jets gave the ball to the Chiefs numerous times and still came out on top last week, but they were playing the Chiefs. I understand that the only road win New York has this year was in Miami in Week 1, and they got beat by Oakland last time they went traveling (gag reflex there). All that being said, I like that the Jets can stop the run (4th in the league with just over 80 yards given up per game) – and I like how that corilates with the trouble Buffalo has had with defenses that make running tough sledding. So, I’ll take the Jets and all 6 of those points in this divisional “HUGE” game.” Yeah – that’s about how it went. Lynch was the Bills leading rusher with 9 carries for 16 yards and the Jets stepped up and played well in a big game. Still, they need to run the rock more than they have been.
Detroit Lions (+14) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER) The Lions have played better on the road than at home, they are getting 14 points at 5 Dimes. Orlovsky has proven to be a decent option, and Calvin Johnson is borderline unguardable. I like the Bears to win this game, and bring the Lions to 0-8 during the first half of the season (probably not winning 10 games like Jon Kitna says, just my observation, but who knows). However, I do like Detroit to play better than a two touchdown dog to a Bears team that definitely has flaws on either side of the ball. The Bears should not be favored by two scores against anyone in the league.” It’s nice to start the week with two perfect analysis write ups of each game, however, the next four didn’t quite go the way I was hoping…
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) Gross. The Jaguars couldn’t run, they couldn’t throw, overall the whole deal was pretty pathetic. Chad Johnson picked up two touchdowns on the day, though, it was nice to see him back on the board. What’s wrong with everyone in the AFC South besides the Titans?
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (PK): (LOSS) The Browns just choked away this win – they were up 27-20 going into the 4th before giving up a field goal, and offensive touchdown, and then a pick 6 to Terrell Suggs and the Ravens defense. This was a tough game and Browns has a win in sight. They scored enough points to where I thought they’d get the win. And then the wheels came off. This Browns team is who we thought they were, overrated.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (LOSS) The Bucs scored 14 points in the 4th and they needed every single one of those just to get into overtime, and that includes their 2 point conversion with less than 20 seconds on the clock. In overtime, the Bucs got a big play from Jeff Garcia to Michael Clayton, getting them into field goal range and Matt Bryant put up the game winner. Tampa didn’t come to play early in this game, and it showed. Still, they were good enough to make survivor picks everywhere smile. I lose and frown.
Houston Texans (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (LOSS) Minnesota had Matt Schaub go down in a first half that they didn’t play too well in. That being said, I’m not sure how much different the game would have been had Schaub not gotten injured. Sage Rosenfels is one of the better backups in the league, and he did a good job in relief. Adrian Peterson was a beast in the 2nd half and just wouldn’t let the Texans defense get off the field. A 4th down sack with a minute left gave the Vikings the win. Close, but no cigar.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) And the Cardinals win easily. They are much better than they’ve been over the past few seasons. Their confidence at home and on the road is apparent, showing when they absolutely hammered the Rams today. Good win for me.
Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (WINNER) This game went just how I thought it would go. I saw two teams that were very equal, and had the Titans winning by a field goal. Equal? Sure, this game went into OT, but it was the Titans consistent attack that gave them the win. Still, my Packers bet covered, making me a happy man.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: (WINNER) This game was interesting. Miami controlled it throughout, but they didn’t really do anything great. Ronnie Brown only had 59 yards on 20 carries, and Pennington threw 40 times to get 281 yards and a pick, without a touchdown. Four big field goals for Dan Carpenter really helped the Fins out, but Denver’s pass happy turnover prone attack is really what gave teh Fins a win here, and that tough run defense didn’t hurt. Either way, I took this W outright.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-8): (WINNER) “Too much defensive pressure by the Giants will absolutely make Brad Johnson a sitting duck. (Brad left at half because of his inability to do anything worth while) The Giants are too tough against the run to allow Marion Barber much room to explode (Barber had his worst day of the season, rushing 19 times for 54 yards, and catching just one pass for -12 yards). New York should win this one in the 24-10 range.” Something like that, huh? The giants won 35-14, a little better than I thought, and they looked good against a Dallas team that couldn’t pose a down field threat since Tony Romo went down a few weeks ago. Thank God for a bye week, eh Boys fans?
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) I thought this game would be a little tighter, but my lean was easily in the right direction. The Falcons didn’t commit stupid turnovers and penalties, and thus their youth didn’t hurt them. They ran the ball all day long and took advantage of some nice plays by Matt Ryan. Atlanta won easily, I win again!
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) I know it doesn’t look like the “sharp” bet here, as just about 75% of the public is taking the Eagles, but I can’t see another side. The Seahawks got two 50 yard touchdown catches from Leonard Weaver of all people (last week). Those were Seneca Wallace’s only touchdown passes and almost half of his total passing yardage. Seattle’s defense still doesn’t do enough to disrupt a good offense, and the Eagles (with Brian Westbrook) have one of the most efficient and mistake free units in the league (they didn’t have a penalty against the Hawks and controlled the ball like it was their job). The Hawks may be without Lofa Tatupu, and that would be a huge hit. The Hawks may have killed a disfunctional 49er team last week, and no win is easy in the NFL, but I see things coming a lot tougher for the Hawks in this one. The Hawks have 2 wins, to the great 49ers last week (after losing to them once already) and to the tough and gritty St. Louis Rams prior to Haslet taking over. They’ve been destroyed by “good” teams that they’ve played. Buffalo beat them by 24, the Giants ran over them by 38, the Packers only won by 10 – but it wasn’t that close – trust me, the Bucs also won by 10 – but that also wasn’t even close. I hate going with 75% of the public, but 6.5 looks nice from my pedestal.” What can I say, this one was just as easy as it looked. The Eagles didn’t score a lot of touchdowns, but they controlled the clock and busted out field goals all day long. The Seahawks had a 90 yard pss for a touchdown on their first play from scrimmage – they never scored again and Wallace threw for less than 90 yards the rest of the day.
New England Patriots (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) These two teams were awkwardly similar during the game, and New England definitely had their chances before shooting themselves in the foot with a late hit penalty (thanks back-up tight end David Thomas), but things happened. Honestly, it was probably better for my cover to have the Pats have to go for it on 4th down, and give it back to the Colts with no time outs left. Indy ran out the clock and basically guaranteed me this game. I win again, the Colts get to .500 and will possibly make them a good value to go against next week, we shall see.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (-1): There was a lot to look at in this one, and if you read my analysis, you could see that I wasn’t feeling good about the Skins, but having to lean one way or another, I sided with the home team. Well, Washington pooped the proverbial bed, and now they go into the bye week struggling. Those are the breaks. Washington had a couple things go there way and it seemed like good old Mo jumped ship headed into halftime. After that the Skins were flat, Jason threw his first pick, followed by his second, and the game was over. Byron Leftwich carried the Steelers – you heard that right. Sometimes you have tough days, I certainly did. On the other hand, McCain looked like a turd, so that’s always refreshing… my friends.