Category Archives: NCAA Picks

NCAA football picks by luckylester.com. Each week Lucky Lester and occasionally guest authors, post their college football picks and predictions on the outcome of select games. The site also publishes reviews of the free pick match-ups.

California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick

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California Golden Bears vs Washington Huskies Free Pick: Coming into the season, the Cal Bears boasted one of the best running backs in the nation, if not the best. But Jahvid Best had a scary injury, and hasn’t played in quite some times. The interesting part of that scenario is that the Bears rushing attack hasn’t really suffered. In fact, I think the offensive line is blocking better, and overall, the Bears are a more efficient offense now that they aren’t relying on their stud running back.

That spells trouble for the Huskies. I’ve been pretty much dead on with the Huskies this year, I know them well. I know who they should play well against, I know who they struggle against. I’ve said all along that if you can fully commit to running the ball against UW then you can win easily. I think the Golden Bears can and will do that.

Not only are they the better team, and pose a tough match-up for the Huskies defense, but the Bears are playing their best football of the season. After struggling mightily against good teams, the Bears have beaten Arizona and Stanford back to back. And they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the University of Washington. I know Husky stadium is loud but I don’t know how long it will be that way.

If you look at stats, you’ll see that the Bears do just about everything more effectively than the Huskies. Stats, the way I feel, the moon alignment – I have everything going for me here. I think the Bears win 38-21 in Seattle.

California Golden Bears (-6) @ Washington Huskies

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick

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Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick: I don’t see what about the Cornhuskers has them at a two touchdown underdog in this one. They’ve basically had one bad game all year long, and aside from that one piss poor outing, a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech in which they turned the ball over more than Jay Cutler, they’ve lost two games by a total of three points, a 2 point loss to Iowa State and a 1 point loss to Virginia Tech. That’s not really two touchdown underdog worthy is it?

Against like opponents, the Cornhuskers have held their own. They beat Kansas by two touchdowns while the Longhorns beat the Jayhawks by three touchdowns. The Huskers beat Oklahoma 10-3, the Longhorns won their tilt with the Sooners 16-13. Both won against the spread and straight up against Missouri.

They Cornhuskers have out-rushed all but two of their opponents on the season, the same can be said for the Longhorns. The Cornhuskers have a superior defense, allowing just 11 points on average this season. The Lonhorns have the superior offense, blasting weaker teams late in the year, and finishing the year averaging 43 points per contest compared to the Cornhuskers 25.6.

But Nebraska plays their toughest football against the best teams. They beat Oklahoma, fought Virginia Tech until the very end, and beat up on Kansas. The last two games in this match-up the Longhorns have won by 2 and 3 points. Nebraska won ATS in both games. Texas has more injury concerns headed into Saturday’s Championship game, and that last little push makes the Cornhuskers a great bet in my cocky opinion.

Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (+13.5)

Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick

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Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick: Everybody has completely bought in to the Illini’s recent change in play, and I must admit, this is more of the team I expected when the season started. Juice Williams is playing pretty good football, and the team has some offensive playmakers, definitely. The problem is, when they’re playing good or bad football, they still can’t stop anybody. Especially a team like Fresno State that is much better than people give them credit for.

I thought this line was kind pretty off when I first saw the line, and it’s only moved in my favor. I took the Bulldogs +1 and they’ve moved to a field goal underdog, and still, 60+% of the public likes the Illini. I’m starting to think (or have always thought, would be a better way to put it) that “names” of a program means a lot more to bettors than the actual ability of said team. Really, the Bulldogs are the better team, there’s no doubt in my mind.

But Illinois is a “Big Conference School” (I know, the Big 10, so powerful!) and they’ve won 4 of their last 5 against the spread (including a big win over big powerhouse, Michigan). They are hot, so to say. Sure, they only have 3 wins on the year and have been beaten by double digits in almost every single one of their 8 losses, but they’re “hot”.

Listen, Fresno State’s only losses come against Nevada, Boise State, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Two of those were decided by one score. One went to overtime. I’ll take the much better team and a field goal, thank you very much.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+1) @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick

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Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick: These two teams have definitely been the class of the Big East this season. Rutgers made a nice little run, and West Virginia capped off some solid play of late with a win over Pittsburgh last week, but the Bearcats and Panthers have been on top of the conference from start to finish. Cincinnati remains undefeated headed into Pittsburgh to play the Panthers. It will be tough, and they’ll need some help, but the Bearcats could be playing for a National Championship if the dominoes fall correctly. Better yet, if Humpty Dumpty goes splat.

This line has really moved 3.5 points away from Pittsburgh and what started as the Panthers being a small favorite has become the Bearcats being a small road favorite. I took the game right in between where it started and where it is now, but when it comes right down to it, the chances of those few points mattering in the game are pretty slim. If it got to a field goal, my feelings might have changed a little, but -1, -2, +1 – rarely does that change make a difference.

What I like about the Bearcats is their awesome offensive firepower. I know the Panthers can score some points, and they are certainly efficient – but I think they’ll struggle with the speed of Cincinnati’s defense and I doubt the Panthers can score enough to keep up with the Bearcats.

Cincinnati Bearcats (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: This game has really moved around on me this week. I believe it opened up at even, and the line moved fast in betting favor of the Scarlet Knights, giving the home team 2.5 points when I picked my lines for the week on Monday Night. Since then, despite the high traffic of public bets on West Virginia, the line has moved in West Virginia’s favor, and now the Mountaineers are the underdog, +1.5 almost everywhere you look. 58% of the public bet is on WVU.

Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10, losing to Pittsburgh by a touchdown and getting routed by Syracuse, of all teams.But sometimes that’s what happens to young quarterbacks. Tom Savage has been great since taking over for the Scarlet Knights, and he’s been even more impressive at home. The only home games Rutgers lost all season were against Cincinnati and Pitt.

West Virginia has wan 6 of their last 8, getting beat by a field goal @ Cincinnati, and losing by 11 @ South Florida. The Mountaineers are 1-3 on the road this season. Their only road win was a beat down performed on the same Syracuse team Rutgers lost to a couple weeks ago. They are 4-6 ATS this season.

I like the home field advantage, I like the positive feel to the season thus far for the Knights. I like Tom Savage and the way he’s led his team. West Virginia is good, they’ll come to battle, but I like the home team.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+2.5)

Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks Pick & Preview

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The Beavers and the Ducks, Oregon State visiting Oregon, the Cival War, one of the best rivalries in the Pac-10, the two best teams in the conference, a trip to the Rose Bowl against Ohio State at stake, a chance to be the one that took USC’s place atop a conference that has been dominated by Southern California for a long time. Yeah, there’s a lot on the line for Thursday Night’s showdown in the Beaver State – if your state is named after you, shouldn’t you be the popular pick?

Alright, so maybe Oregon was called the Beaver State long before OSU became the Beavers, but I like to kid. What I see from Oregon State is a team that has yet to lose a game by more than 10 points, and that 10-point loss came very early in the season to a very good Cincinnati team that has, consequently, gone undefeated thus far. The Beavers other two losses, a 6-point defeat at the hands of the Trojans and a 5-point loss to Arizona. What makes them so tough to shut down? Well, they pass the ball with great efficiency (more passing yardage than their opponent in 6 of their last 8 games) and are down right dominant on the ground (have been out-rushed only twice this year). They are balanced, and they do both very well.

But Oregon has one of the best offenses in the nation, has one of, if not the best spread/read/running quarterback in the land, and a very talented young running back, plus a bruiser in Mr. Blount if they every decide to use them. Neither team stops their opponent much with defensive prowess, but both can make big plays, and they have.

The road team has won each of the last 2, but the home team won 8 in a row prior to 2007 and 2008. The final score is usually more of a blowout than a close contest, but with these offenses, it might be the last one with the ball – that makes the points the bet for me!

Oregon State Beavers (+10) @ Oregon Ducks

Arkansas State Indians vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick

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Arkansas State Indians vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick: These two teams are very equal. Since the Hilltoppers gave the axe to their head coach in the midst of an 0-9 season, they have played better football. They’ve lost 2 games by a total of 9 points, and they are currently rolling hard against the spread, winning their last 3.

The Hilltoppers lost to the University of Louisiana-Monroe by 3 points, then had Florida Atlantic take them down by 6 – both games were on the road. Arkansas State also lost to those two teams, but they lost to Monroe by 6 and Florida Atlantic beat them 35-18. Recently, the Indians are 1-4 over their last 5, having failed to cover the spread in any of their last 5 games.

The Hilltoppers have out-rushed two of their last 3 opponents, covering both games. The Indians have really only won two games this year (Mississippi Valley State doesn’t really count), and in both they out-rushed their opponent. Every game where an opposing ground attack as given them trouble, they’ve been ousted easily.

What’s making this game tilt even more in the Hilltoppers’ favor? How about the Indians starting quarterback, and probably their most efficient offensive player (Corey Leonard) is doubtful for Thursday’s game with Western Kentucky. Oh, and this game is a road game for the Indians, and they are winless on the road so far this year.

The game should be pretty close, but the home team getting 6 points against a road team they are even with? And that road team is missing their starting quarterback? Yeah, I like the Hilltoppers to cover, and probably get their first win of the year.

Arkansas State Indians @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+7)


Ohio Bobcats vs Central Michigan Chippewas CFB Free Pick

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Ohio Bobcats vs Central Michigan Chippewas CFB Free Pick: The Chipps have been a beast in week-day games this year. They’ve won me games where I’ve bet them to cover, and they’ve beaten me when I pick against them. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation with Dan LeFevour, and they play tough up front on both offense and defense – but just because they’ve beaten up a lot of teams doesn’t make them a sure thing victor over the surprising Bobcats. This is how I see Friday Night’s big game…

This game has already hit 13, even a better number for those backing the underdog. I’m sure it’s moved that fast because the public is all over LeFevour and the Chipps. All the publicity goes to the Chipps, Dan has nearly 2,800 yards passing with 25 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. He also 650 yards on the ground with 14 rushing touchdowns. One of the better small college quarterbacks every, he has thrown for at least 21 touchdowns in each of his 4 seasons at Central Michigan. He’s run for at least 6 and as many as 19 TDs over the last 4 years. So far, he’s accounted for 99 passing scores, 46 rushing touchdowns, and 1 receiving touchdown in his career. The publicity is definitely with him and the Chipps, and they deserve it.

But betting isn’t all about who’s the best looking or who has the best numbers, no, it’s about covering that spread, and the Bobcats have been a good enough team to appreciate and see value in as double digit dogs, even on the road and facing the Chipps. The Bobcats hvae won 7 of thier last 8, just like CMU, and they’ve had some similar outcomes against some similar opponents. This should be a close one.

Ohio Bobcats (+12) @ Central Michigan Chippewas

NCAA Free Football Picks Review: Week 13 2009

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Well, not a great week, but 7-6 is a winning week, and while I haven’t had many big college winners this year, I’ve been pretty consistent over the last 8 or 9 goes at it, and a good run every week, plus a great read on a couple teams week in and week out, should be giving you a good chance to make some money. A tough 1-4 start wasn’t too big of a hole for me to climb out of after all. Here’s how I won one more than I lost.

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Ball State Cardinals @ Western Michigan Broncos (-10) (Loss) Well, the Cardinals came out and beat the Broncos in this one. I really can’t believe it, but it happened. Ball State just played a better game, and never even worried about a cover.

Texas Longhorns (-22.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies (Loss) The Aggies exposed a Longhorns defense that was lucky to have Colt McCoy in control of their offense, or the Aggies might have just pulled the upset. This was one hell of an offensive game, and the Aggies came away with an easy cover in a tight contest. McCoy was awesome, but I think any team in the Big 12 would have a lot of trouble with better defenses and downright tough run-games. We’ll see during the bowl season.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4) @ Louisville Cardinals (WINNER) Tom Savage did what he’s done almost all year long, got the win while looking confident and throwing the ball with accuracy and consistency. The Knights are tough to beat behind their young gun slinger.

Pittsburgh Panthers (-1) @ West Virginia Mountaineers (Loss) The Panthers folded, not handling being the favorites in a big game, and West Virginia thrived as the upset minded team coming in late to down the Panthers. A turn of the tables, indeed.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-12) @ Auburn Tigers (Loss) Alabama got the win, but Auburn came to play and gave the Tide all they could handle. Down late, Alabama scored a short touchdown on a pass, and despite having trouble finding running room, got a big win heading into the SEC Championship with Florida.

Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (WINNER) The Illini put up plenty of yards and scored plenty of points, and while they couldn’t stop the Bearcats, a late touchdown was just enough to get me the cover for the road team. Can Cincinnati be beat? Pitt will give it a shot next week!

Nevada Wolf Pack (+12) @ Boise State Broncos (WINNER) Nevada put up tons of yardage and scored lots of points against Boise, proving a tough offense to stop, and giving the Broncos a scare. Boise won, but by just enough to keep me on the winning side of things.

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) (WINNER) Clemson looked overwhelmed by the Gamecocks’ attacking defense, getting out-matched just about all game long. South Carolina looked too fast, and with Georgia’s win over the Yellow Jackets as well, the ACC looked like a 2nd tier conference on Saturday.

New Mexico Lobos (+43.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs (WINNER) New Mexico held the Horned Frogs out of the end-zone late, and that just barely got me a big cover. Haha. I was sweating it, nothing like sweating that 9th touchdown win late, you’re probably the only guy with an eye on a game like this, but hey, this is the bettor’s life.

Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ Arizona State Sun Devils (WINNER) They won by just 3, and I’m lucky I got them at 2.5 when I did. The Wildcats were the better team, but the Sun Devils came to play and luckily for me, couldn’t find a way to get it done.

Florida State Seminoles (+23) @ Florida Gators (Loss) This one was very close, and I thought I might get a late score to give me a miracle cover. But I didn’t and the ‘Noles didn’t, and to think, that might have been Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sideline.

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies (-24) (WINNER) You can’t argue much about my knowledge and feel for the Huskies and Cougars – but this one almost didn’t work out. Still, the Cougars couldn’t do anything offensively, and the Huskies did just enough. I predicted a 29 point win for UW, and they won by 30. Right on the money.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7) (Loss) I should have left this game alone. I didn’t think anybody would out-rush the Yellow Jackets the rest of the season, but Georgia came out and pushed the Jackets around, and stopped Tech’s rushing attack enough early to force them into some things they weren’t comfortable with. And the ACC took another hit.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick

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Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7) Pick: I got this game at 7, and I must say that’s a lot sexier than 7.5. but even at the number you’re getting today. 7.5, the Jackets look like a solid bet to me. I see that Georgia makes their home in the famous SEC, the home of Champions and bullies and the greatest college football teams to ever play the game, not to mention the single most complete college football leader in the storied history of the sport, one Tim Tebow – but I still like the Techies’ chances. So, SEC, you’ve got nothing on me!

This Georgia Team got beat by Kentucky last week, at home no less. They got whipped by all the top ranked teams they’ve played, even Tennessee handed them a 45-19 loss. The Yellow Jackets have only had trouble with teams that can really throw the ball or are just flat out good. They lost to Miami when Jacory Harris was lighting the world on fire, they won by just 5 over Florida State as Casey Ponder chewed up their secondary, and Wake Forrest gave them trouble as Riley Skinner found his game. But Georgia doesn’t have that. Sure, they have some high yardage numbers, and Joe Cox has thrown 21 touchdowns, but the Bulldogs are hardly an elite passing team.

Georgia also gets smoked when they get out-rushed. Florida out-rushed them. Tennessee out-rused them, and so did LSU – all teams beat and covered against the Bulldogs. In fact, the only game they won while getting out-rushed was against South Carolina, by 7 yards, and even then the Gamecocks covered the spread.

Yeah, I like one of the best rushing attacks in college football – the Yellow Jackets by a touchdown.