Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick

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Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini Free Pick: Everybody has completely bought in to the Illini’s recent change in play, and I must admit, this is more of the team I expected when the season started. Juice Williams is playing pretty good football, and the team has some offensive playmakers, definitely. The problem is, when they’re playing good or bad football, they still can’t stop anybody. Especially a team like Fresno State that is much better than people give them credit for.

I thought this line was kind pretty off when I first saw the line, and it’s only moved in my favor. I took the Bulldogs +1 and they’ve moved to a field goal underdog, and still, 60+% of the public likes the Illini. I’m starting to think (or have always thought, would be a better way to put it) that “names” of a program means a lot more to bettors than the actual ability of said team. Really, the Bulldogs are the better team, there’s no doubt in my mind.

But Illinois is a “Big Conference School” (I know, the Big 10, so powerful!) and they’ve won 4 of their last 5 against the spread (including a big win over big powerhouse, Michigan). They are hot, so to say. Sure, they only have 3 wins on the year and have been beaten by double digits in almost every single one of their 8 losses, but they’re “hot”.

Listen, Fresno State’s only losses come against Nevada, Boise State, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Two of those were decided by one score. One went to overtime. I’ll take the much better team and a field goal, thank you very much.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+1) @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick

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Cincinnati Bearcats vs Pittsburgh Panthers CFB Free Pick: These two teams have definitely been the class of the Big East this season. Rutgers made a nice little run, and West Virginia capped off some solid play of late with a win over Pittsburgh last week, but the Bearcats and Panthers have been on top of the conference from start to finish. Cincinnati remains undefeated headed into Pittsburgh to play the Panthers. It will be tough, and they’ll need some help, but the Bearcats could be playing for a National Championship if the dominoes fall correctly. Better yet, if Humpty Dumpty goes splat.

This line has really moved 3.5 points away from Pittsburgh and what started as the Panthers being a small favorite has become the Bearcats being a small road favorite. I took the game right in between where it started and where it is now, but when it comes right down to it, the chances of those few points mattering in the game are pretty slim. If it got to a field goal, my feelings might have changed a little, but -1, -2, +1 – rarely does that change make a difference.

What I like about the Bearcats is their awesome offensive firepower. I know the Panthers can score some points, and they are certainly efficient – but I think they’ll struggle with the speed of Cincinnati’s defense and I doubt the Panthers can score enough to keep up with the Bearcats.

Cincinnati Bearcats (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: This game has really moved around on me this week. I believe it opened up at even, and the line moved fast in betting favor of the Scarlet Knights, giving the home team 2.5 points when I picked my lines for the week on Monday Night. Since then, despite the high traffic of public bets on West Virginia, the line has moved in West Virginia’s favor, and now the Mountaineers are the underdog, +1.5 almost everywhere you look. 58% of the public bet is on WVU.

Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10, losing to Pittsburgh by a touchdown and getting routed by Syracuse, of all teams.But sometimes that’s what happens to young quarterbacks. Tom Savage has been great since taking over for the Scarlet Knights, and he’s been even more impressive at home. The only home games Rutgers lost all season were against Cincinnati and Pitt.

West Virginia has wan 6 of their last 8, getting beat by a field goal @ Cincinnati, and losing by 11 @ South Florida. The Mountaineers are 1-3 on the road this season. Their only road win was a beat down performed on the same Syracuse team Rutgers lost to a couple weeks ago. They are 4-6 ATS this season.

I like the home field advantage, I like the positive feel to the season thus far for the Knights. I like Tom Savage and the way he’s led his team. West Virginia is good, they’ll come to battle, but I like the home team.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+2.5)