Arkansas State Indians vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick: These two teams are very equal. Since the Hilltoppers gave the axe to their head coach in the midst of an 0-9 season, they have played better football. They’ve lost 2 games by a total of 9 points, and they are currently rolling hard against the spread, winning their last 3.

The Hilltoppers lost to the University of Louisiana-Monroe by 3 points, then had Florida Atlantic take them down by 6 – both games were on the road. Arkansas State also lost to those two teams, but they lost to Monroe by 6 and Florida Atlantic beat them 35-18. Recently, the Indians are 1-4 over their last 5, having failed to cover the spread in any of their last 5 games.

The Hilltoppers have out-rushed two of their last 3 opponents, covering both games. The Indians have really only won two games this year (Mississippi Valley State doesn’t really count), and in both they out-rushed their opponent. Every game where an opposing ground attack as given them trouble, they’ve been ousted easily.

What’s making this game tilt even more in the Hilltoppers’ favor? How about the Indians starting quarterback, and probably their most efficient offensive player (Corey Leonard) is doubtful for Thursday’s game with Western Kentucky. Oh, and this game is a road game for the Indians, and they are winless on the road so far this year.

The game should be pretty close, but the home team getting 6 points against a road team they are even with? And that road team is missing their starting quarterback? Yeah, I like the Hilltoppers to cover, and probably get their first win of the year.

Arkansas State Indians @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+7)