MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Oregon State Beavers vs BYU Cougars

BYU started with one hell of a bang, beating Top 5 Oklahoma when Sam Bradford went down. After that, they were everybody’s small college darling that could get a chance at the National Title – but then the rest of the season came, and despite going for 10 wins and just 2 losses, the now 14th ranked Cougars got smacked around a couple times when they could have proven themselves. Florida State, of all teams, smacked the Cougars for their first loss, 54-28. And after three straight wins to bounce back from that, the TCU Horned Frogs (one of the best teams in the Nation, mind you) embarrassed the Cougars at home, 38-7.

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It’s very possible that the best win BYU put on the board was a week 1 win over a team that lost thier Heisman quarterback, were playing with a brand new offensive line, and were definitely a bit overrated going into the season. After that, their best win likely came at home against Utah, or at home against Air Force. In both games, the Cougars were favored by more than a touchdown.

Oregon State, on the other hand, is one of the Top 10 teams in the Nation – or so I think. Luckily, I could give a piss about rankings, the same rankings that have BYU ranked above Oregon State because they have 10 wins to OSU’s 8. Well, I’ll take OSU’s losses over most of BYU’s wins, and I know a certain couple of Rodgers brothers will be ready to show their twin magic this Tuesday on ESPN. I’ll be watching.

The Beavers should win by a couple scores.

Oregon State Beavers (-2) vs. BYU Cougars:

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick

New Orleans Bowl – Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick: The game’s being played in New Orleans, so nobody has a distinct advantage in this one, yet it’s close enough where teams will get fans driving in. Both these teams had solid seasons, and it should be one heck of an offensive showcase, and in those types of games, nobody’s ever out of it, and nobody’s ever safe.

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Middle Tennessee comes in winners of their last 6 games, outscoring their opponents at least 2 to 1 in 5 of those 6 contests. They haven’t played the biggest baddest competition over the last 6 games, but straight pancaking the competition needs to be recognized, and that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.

The Blue Raiders are 9-3 on the season, 9-3 ATS, 5-1 at home and 4-2 on the road. They’ve won everywhere. They score an average of 31 points per game while giving up 23. They are 7-5 O/U, going 4-2 O/U in their recent 6 game winning streak. They’ve out-rushed their opponents in each of their last 6 games.

The Golden Eagles are 7-5 on the year, 6-5 ATS, 6-0 at home and just 1-5 on the road, making me question their chances away from home in this bowl game. They’ve averaged 33 poitns per game while giving up 24.5. SMU has played a much tougher schedule than the Blue Raiders. The Eagles have won 5 of their last 6 games ATS, and are 4-2 SU over their last 6 games.

It comes down to their rushing attack, their momentum, and their ability to play anywhere – and because of that, I like the Blue Raiders to pull the bowl upset.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+4)

St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida Vs. Rutgers, Preview, Picks

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I made some good points in my “Just Picks” newsletter about the St. Petersburg Bowl, presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady’s, and while I could easily find another way to say the same stuff, I think it would just be simpler for everyone if I just gave you the clip, I wanted to go with Rutgers and Tom Savage here, but I see a little problem with that pick and thus I’m going against a pretty good Rutgers team. Central Florida’s rushing attack is better, and they’ve out-rushed many opponents this year, and will probably out-rush the Scarlet Knights. In all four of Rutgers’ losses this year, they’ve been out-gained on the ground. That’s enough for me in what should be a very tight contest. Oh, and the game is being played in St. Petersburg, Florida. That’s just some of it. Here’s more.

I said that Rutgers has struggled when getting out-rushed, this is what I meant: They were out-rushed 5 times in the last 10 games – 3 of those games were straight up losses, and losses ATS as well. They were out-gained on the ground by Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia, and all three of those teams got the win. Connecticut and Army also out-gained Rutgers, and while they beat Army fairly easily, UConn probably should have won that game.

I’ve liked Tom Savage all year, he’s done good things with his chances, and his fight has certainly impressed me – but match-ups are important, and I think the Florida Knights have a good chance to upset the Knights of Scarlet color.

Central Florida Knights (+3) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming Cowboys vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

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New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 8 games, and they are playing good offensive football coming in. Defensively, they certainly leave something to be desired, I mean not many teams give up 50+ points and win, but that’s what Fresno did to finish the season. Still, the only team they lost to over the last 8 games of the season was Nevada, one heck of a football team that almost ended Boise State’s undefeated run. Fresno has shown they can play with anyone.

Now that might be tough considering their draw in the opening Bowl game of the College Bowl season, they get Wyoming… Tough draw? Hardly, the Cowboys just barely go into the bowl family, and maybe, just maybe the Bulldogs find a tough time getting up for the Cowboys. But I’m not betting on that, I’m betting on a Fresno team that will play anybody anywhere, and a bowl game closer to Wyoming doesn’t worry me much – plus, Fresno is just flat out better.

Wyoming Cowboys gives up 10 more points a game than they score, and it’s not like they’re on fire coming into the bowl season – they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games, and they haven’t played well against winning football teams. Fresno allows a lot of points, no doubt about that, giving up nearly 28 per game, but they throw it and run it and have the athletes to beat up on Wyoming, and I think they do.

Fresno State Bulldogs (-11.5) vs. Wyoming Cowboys

Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen Free Football Pick

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Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen Free Football Pick: Over the last few years, the Midshipmen have dominated this rivalry. The Army/Navy rivalry is pretty close to even over the years, but as the Midshipmen have won easily, and the programs have lost a lot of the luster they carried when they were elite football programs, the game has gotten less publicity. But these teams are both on the upswing, and a close and good game could really help the game gain a little more spotlight. I know it’s not competing with much. The only football game being played this Saturday is the Army-Navy game.

The Army have put together their best and most competitive team in years. Their new coach has a disciplined system in place, and he seems to be getting the most out of the players he has. They are one win away from .500 on the season, 5-6, and have a better chance to upset the Midshipmen than they’ve had in years. They’re riding a 2 game winning streak coming in, but will that be enough to cover against Navy?

I say no. The Black Knights have been knocked out by good football teams. Air Force beat them by 4 touchdowns. Rutgers beat them by 17. Even Temple won by two touchdowns. Duke got a 16 point win. The Midshipmen are a good team, they are what the Black Knights are striving to become. Navy has played tight against everyone they’ve played (aside from the bad teams they’ve killed). The biggest defeat the Midshipmen have this season was a 13 point loss to Pittsburgh. Everything else has been within a score. I think they handle the Black Knights once again.

Army Black Knights @ Navy Midshipmen (-14)

BCS National Championship Preview: Wronging a Right

Before I get started on my frustrated rant that ends up with me crushing my own soul by suggesting these idiots actually got it right, here’s a list of the 10 schools that will be enjoying BCS Bowl money this coming New Year, and the match-ups in their selected Bowls. I’ll be doing free picks, write-ups for each game later in the month:

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BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Fiesta Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Boise State Broncos

Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

First and foremost, lets get the obvious out of the way: there is now way in hell anything without a playoff could ever really be called a “Championship”. If the Yankees never had to play the Red Sox, or if they didn’t have to play the National League, it would be pretty damn hard to call them the National Champions or even better yet, the “World Champions”, now wouldn’t it? Pitting the two “top rated” teams against each other,  based on an absurd ranking system that relies almost completely on coaches that don’t even vote, and that are supposed to vote a certain way based on their conference loyalties, in a system that brings into account “PRE-SEASON Rankings”, seems like an interesting way to crown a champ to me.

But like I said, that is obvious, and since this fine country is almost completely money driven, it makes sense that colleges would keep selling the souls of their athletes for as much cash as possible, and keep this “clever” bowl system going for as long as possible. Here’s to you Mr. Obama – it may not be high on your list, but I’ll be impatiently hoping for your mark on the college game. So we’ll just agree to agree here, it is impossible to do teams’ justice in this format, especially when their are multiple undefeated teams. IMPOSSIBLE.

Now lets get into these match-ups and how they are absolutely right in the worst way. I personally would have matched up TCU and Florida, Cincinnati and Boise State – and lets be honest, I could careless about the other match-ups right now, because matching TCU, Cincinnati, or Boise State up with Georgia Tech or Iowa wouldn’t show anybody anything. And the Rose Bowl is the Rose Bowl and it’s looking like it always will be despite how despicable the Big 10 becomes. I’m willing to accept that, and think Ohio State and Oregon will be a fun match-up. But I have good reason for changing the match-ups around a little.

My problem with the TCU vs. Boise State match-up is that it won’t prove anything except who is the best “small college” school in the country. But for arguments sake, instead of calling it “Small College”, lets go with “Can’t Possibly Win a National Championship College” – because that better describes the them and their situation. If you put Boise State or TCU up against Florida, and the other up against Cincinnati – then you would have two great “CPWaNCC’s” against two bigger and more distinguished schools (though the Big East has almost as little respect as the “small conferences”). That would give the small colleges a chance to prove themselves against top competition, and it would, maybe in the future, give them more respect with voters. The problem with a match-up like this is that it would have a chance of doing exactly what I suggested, making the “other” colleges gain some respect, and thus giving them a chance at the National Championship. Oh, you don’t think that’s a problem? Too bad for us, because “the Man” does.

Unfortunately for me, they probably got the match-ups right on the dot, based solely on the quality of teams. BYU and TCU have proven to me that they are 2 of the top 4 teams in the Nation, and if they can’t play for the National Championship, that means that, in my book, they are the next two best teams and thus should play each other. Cincinnati is very good, but I believe they are 2nd to both of the colleges that can’t possibly win a national championship. Florida might be the best team in the Nation, but laid an egg last week, getting absolutely handled by Alabama, thus losing their chances for a Top spot. I don’t think Texas is as good people give them credit for, but being a “Big Conference” school, and undefeated, will put them in the Big game, and it’s hard to argue with that.

The biggest problem with this is the match-ups are right. Football-wise, talent-wise, they are probably all right. It’s terrible that BYU and TCU are proving their worth against each other, an impossible task considering the only thing they could possibly do to prove their ability would be to oust a top ranked “Big College” team. But it’s probably right. I would rank them 2 and 3, (ahead of Texas), based on what I’ve seen from all three teams this year – so they are the next best teams, and that’s what a Bowl should be looking for. But give them a chance to fight for the small schools, come on. It may be the right match-up (Kudos to “them” for getting something right), but it’s wrong on every other level, and gives two of the best teams in the country almost nothing to gain with a win in January.

NCAA Free Football Picks Review: Week 14 2009

And it was a very nice week to end my free NCAA football picks on. It started nice and finished even better. I wish both Alabama and Florida would have lost, but since that was impossible, I guess I’ll settle for the Gators getting upset in their bid for a repeat of the National Championship. Lots of good teams barely got by this week, but some nice underdogs made looking for the upset bid very profitable. Here’s how 7-3-1 looked…

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Arkansas State Indians @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+7) (WINNER) The Indians needed fourteen 4th quarter points just to win, but it wasn’t by enough to make me a loser – the Hilltoppers looked like the better team throughout, and I was definitely right about these two teams being more equal than the records suggested.

Oregon State Beavers (+10) @ Oregon Ducks (WINNER) The Beavers gave it a shot, and they had some chances. But the normally accurate Canfield couldn’t get some key completions late, and the Ducks offense ended up being just too tough to stop. Oregon completed two 4th downs on their final drive to seal the victory. But OSU covered in a game that was very close.

Ohio Bobcats (+12) @ Central Michigan Chippewas (WINNER) The Bobcats continued to do what they’ve done all year, keep it close against good teams. They were underrated coming in, and while Dan LeFevour was too much for them to pull the upset, a solid defensive performance got me a close cover.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+2.5) (Loss) Just by the hair on my chubby chin chin. The Mountaineers pulled out a 3-point victory over a Scarlet Knights team that was their own worst enemy early. A late comeback fell just short, and Rutgers go me a rare loss in the last week of the season.

Cincinnati Bearcats (-1) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (Push) Well, this was one hell of a game. I can’t believe the small mishaps went the way the did, the unbelievable performances the Bearcats got from key players to stay undefeated, and the overall amazingness from this game. I thought the Panthers had it all wrapped up, but apparently they had it “all but wrapped up” as the Bearcats did what they needed to do, just like thy had all year. The 1 point win wasn’t enough for me, though, as Cinci’s win just got me a push. Amazing.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+1) @ Illinois Fighting Illini (Winner) This was another great game, and while it didn’t have an undefeated or a National Championship on the line, it had two teams playing solid football at the end of the year. As close as Rutgers loss was, this win was equal. The Bulldogs went for two to win it, and a tipped pass ended up in a lineman’s hands, and he took it in for the game winning conversion. Amazing.

Arizona Wildcats (+7.5) @ USC Trojans (Winner) The Wildcats beat the Trojans. Yeah, just like I predicted. Just like I said, the better team won this game.

Florida Gators (-5.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide (Loss) The Gators got stomped, rolled, beaten, battered, destroyed, embarrassed, and Tim Tebow cried, and I’m okay with that. But I must say, it was fun to be a part of, even if I had picked the Gators.

California Golden Bears (-6) @ Washington Huskies (Loss) Well, it’s rare when I miss a Huskies cover, but I sure did exactly that this Saturday. The Huskies straight stomped the Bears, even though Cal had two weeks to prepare for the Dawgs. I stand surprised and impressed, and I’m back to being disgusted with Cal.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5) @ Clemson Tigers (Winner) The Yellow Jackets needed a last minute touchdown to get the win over a game-Clemson team. C.J. Spiller showed the Nation why he’s labeled “one of the most dynamic football players in the country” and he almost single handily won the ACC Crown. But Jonathan Dwyer made a case for why he might be the best pro-style running back in college football, using his strength and speed to get the game winning score. What a week in college football.

Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (+13.5) (Winner) The Longhorns were out-played by the Cornhuskers, and again didn’t look like a National Championship level team -but they managed a win out of the situation, and that’s good enough to get them there. A 46 yard field goal won them their Big 12 crown and a spot in the BCS Title game. But I still easily covered.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction: This game has me really nervous after the week’s numbers, and the way the lines have shifted. I got this game on Tuesday back at GT -2.5, and that’s what I have to stick with, but almost every book has this game at even, and the ones that don’t have the Jackets favored by only a point, and there’s even one book that has Clemson favored in the ACC Title game. 64% of the bets are coming in on the Jackets, but the line has moved in the Tigers favor, hmmm…. That’s always tough on a guy like me, I try to think of it all.

Now I can see what there is to like about Clemson. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games, the underdog in this match-up is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Yellow Jackets are coming off a game where their run game got shut down pretty well by a mediocre Georgia defense. Who has a very good defense? The Tigers, that’s who, up front they are very talented and I can imagine the books see a possible problem for the Jackets there. All they have is a run game, if that’s stopped, they have nothing.

But, Clemson gave up a ton of rushing yards to the Gamecocks last week as well, and I can’t see the Yellow Jackets struggling two weeks in a row on the ground. While the match-up is a good one, a great run game against a great defensive line, I think the Yellow Jackets are just flat out the better team. That gives them the nod in my book.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5) @ Clemson Tigers:

Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick

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Arizona Wildcats vs USC Trojans Free Football Pick: The Wildcats are a tough team to figure. They can play great football against the best of the best, and they can go out and lose to the Huskies or the Cal Bears. But Arizona has been more impressive than USC in just about every single key football category you could think of. Yards gained, yards allowed, points per game, time of possession, penalties, win differential against winning teams – you name it, the Cats have been the better team all year long.

But USC has 60% of the public bets, and every “expert” list I’ve seen has the Trojans as a great bet going into the weekend. I don’t buy it. The Trojans have a lot of stud athletes, sure, but Arizona can run the ball against the Trojans, and Nick Foles has shown he can throw it. This Arizona team outplayed the Ducks a couple weeks ago when they lost in overtime – I think they are the better team, they are getting more than a touchdown against the Trojans, and there’s not much else to say about it.

The Trojans have been out-rushed in 3 of their last 4 games, and took losses in two of those games. The Wildcats have lost just one game when out-rushing their opponent. And when the Wildcats do lose, they haven’t lost by much. Their biggest loss this season? Try a 10-point loss on the road at Iowa.

Arizona Wildcats (+7.5) @ USC Trojans

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

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Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost two straight to the Florida Gators, but that’s where the gambling numbers stop favoring Florida. Alabama is 6-1-1 ATS against the Gators in the last 8 games. Alabama has won 3 of their last 5 over Florida, and in all 3 of those games they were underdogs. This is the smallest spread either team have dealt with all year long. Neither has been an underdog yet this year. Alabama was actually up late in the Florida Game last year, but the Gators scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to walk away with the SEC Title.

But this is a different year and these are different teams. The Gators don’t have Percy Harvin anymore, and the Crimson Tide don’t have their senior quarterback anymore. Both teams have been great all year, and this should be a very tough-nosed game. But in the end I just think the Gators are too explosive.

I think Mark Ingram is a very good runner, but the Gators have been so dominant defensively this year, I just don’t see the Tide making much of their offensive snaps. Florida has yet to give up more than 20 points, and allow less than 10 on average. Alabama is just a point behind them, giving up only 11 per game. Both of these teams are good, I just think the Gators are better, and that’s what it comes right down to. Alabama is the slight public favorite, 52% like them.

Florida Gators (-5.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide