NCAA Free Football Picks Review: Week 13 2009

Well, not a great week, but 7-6 is a winning week, and while I haven’t had many big college winners this year, I’ve been pretty consistent over the last 8 or 9 goes at it, and a good run every week, plus a great read on a couple teams week in and week out, should be giving you a good chance to make some money. A tough 1-4 start wasn’t too big of a hole for me to climb out of after all. Here’s how I won one more than I lost.

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Ball State Cardinals @ Western Michigan Broncos (-10) (Loss) Well, the Cardinals came out and beat the Broncos in this one. I really can’t believe it, but it happened. Ball State just played a better game, and never even worried about a cover.

Texas Longhorns (-22.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies (Loss) The Aggies exposed a Longhorns defense that was lucky to have Colt McCoy in control of their offense, or the Aggies might have just pulled the upset. This was one hell of an offensive game, and the Aggies came away with an easy cover in a tight contest. McCoy was awesome, but I think any team in the Big 12 would have a lot of trouble with better defenses and downright tough run-games. We’ll see during the bowl season.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4) @ Louisville Cardinals (WINNER) Tom Savage did what he’s done almost all year long, got the win while looking confident and throwing the ball with accuracy and consistency. The Knights are tough to beat behind their young gun slinger.

Pittsburgh Panthers (-1) @ West Virginia Mountaineers (Loss) The Panthers folded, not handling being the favorites in a big game, and West Virginia thrived as the upset minded team coming in late to down the Panthers. A turn of the tables, indeed.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-12) @ Auburn Tigers (Loss) Alabama got the win, but Auburn came to play and gave the Tide all they could handle. Down late, Alabama scored a short touchdown on a pass, and despite having trouble finding running room, got a big win heading into the SEC Championship with Florida.

Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (WINNER) The Illini put up plenty of yards and scored plenty of points, and while they couldn’t stop the Bearcats, a late touchdown was just enough to get me the cover for the road team. Can Cincinnati be beat? Pitt will give it a shot next week!

Nevada Wolf Pack (+12) @ Boise State Broncos (WINNER) Nevada put up tons of yardage and scored lots of points against Boise, proving a tough offense to stop, and giving the Broncos a scare. Boise won, but by just enough to keep me on the winning side of things.

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) (WINNER) Clemson looked overwhelmed by the Gamecocks’ attacking defense, getting out-matched just about all game long. South Carolina looked too fast, and with Georgia’s win over the Yellow Jackets as well, the ACC looked like a 2nd tier conference on Saturday.

New Mexico Lobos (+43.5) @ TCU Horned Frogs (WINNER) New Mexico held the Horned Frogs out of the end-zone late, and that just barely got me a big cover. Haha. I was sweating it, nothing like sweating that 9th touchdown win late, you’re probably the only guy with an eye on a game like this, but hey, this is the bettor’s life.

Arizona Wildcats (-2.5) @ Arizona State Sun Devils (WINNER) They won by just 3, and I’m lucky I got them at 2.5 when I did. The Wildcats were the better team, but the Sun Devils came to play and luckily for me, couldn’t find a way to get it done.

Florida State Seminoles (+23) @ Florida Gators (Loss) This one was very close, and I thought I might get a late score to give me a miracle cover. But I didn’t and the ‘Noles didn’t, and to think, that might have been Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sideline.

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies (-24) (WINNER) You can’t argue much about my knowledge and feel for the Huskies and Cougars – but this one almost didn’t work out. Still, the Cougars couldn’t do anything offensively, and the Huskies did just enough. I predicted a 29 point win for UW, and they won by 30. Right on the money.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7) (Loss) I should have left this game alone. I didn’t think anybody would out-rush the Yellow Jackets the rest of the season, but Georgia came out and pushed the Jackets around, and stopped Tech’s rushing attack enough early to force them into some things they weren’t comfortable with. And the ACC took another hit.

NCAA Football Free Picks Review: Week 12 2009

Well, I didn’t win them all, but I started out great and finished well enough to pull out a winning week. I was 7-5 and continued to bolster my NCAA football free picks record with mid-week games and afternoon games on Saturday. Something about those late games that I’ve figured out. Check back later in the week to see if I can continue.

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Buffalo Bulls (-1.5) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks: (WINNER) I picked this one out early, and loved the odds going in. Like I said in my newsletter, the Bulls got a full week to prepare for the Redhawks while Miami-Ohio got just five days. You add up the fact that they are a better team, and you get a 42-17 Bulls-blowout.

Central Michigan Chippewas (-17) @ Ball State Cardinals: (WINNER) The Chipps are just too good. Ball State came in and, like everyone else, couldn’t stop Dan LeFevour. Central Michigan put up 35 points to the Cardinals’ 3, and that’s what you’ll call an easy cover.

Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5): (Loss) I thought Zac Robinson would play. There it is. I’m not positive he would have made all the difference, but I sure would like to think so. Regardless, I got my first loss of the week when Oklahoma State had to fight tooth and nail to pull out a 3 points win over Colorado.

Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons: (Loss) Akron was keeping this close, and a 4th quarter touchdown with about 10 minutes left gave me a glimmer of cover-hope. That was crushed in less than 7 seconds as the Falcons went Joshua Cribbs on the Zips, returning a kick-off for a touchdown, going up 16, and the game would end there. Blast.

Boise State Broncos (-24.5) @ Utah State Aggies: (WINNER) Who in the SEC would blast the Broncos? Who is better than them? Maybe Alabama, maybe Florida? That’s it. I’m sorry, but this is not a National Championship – it is a big conference Championship – and that’s what it should be called. Boise State took it to a Utah State team that had played tough all year long. They put up 52 and won by 31. I’ll take it.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-12) @ Michigan Wolverines: (Loss) The Buckeyes didn’t help me out. They won by 11 in a game they should have dominated. Same old Buckeyes. I thought playing in a game that didn’t matter for much in the win column would have allowed them to open it up a little. Unfortunately for me, they kept it all in the sweater vest.

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North Carolina Tar Heels @ Boston College Eagles (-3.5) (Loss) The Heels just flat out whooped up on the Eagles, making me wonder what I was thinking. That Tar Heel defense is just tough. The Eagles didn’t have the guys to do much against that D, they were outmatched all day long.

North Carolina State Wolf Pack @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-19.5): (WINNER) Last time I checked, 38-10 was an easy 20 point spread cover. That’s what Va-Tech did to NC State. It was 24019 at the half. The Hokies scored 14 more in the 3rd while shutting the Wolf Pack out. The 4th quarter was scoreless for both teams as the Hokies ran out the clock effectively. Got a Hokies win just before Turkey-Day – you bet! Gobble flippin’ Gobble!

Connecticut Huskies (+6) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: (WINNER) I was pulling hard for the Huskies, no doubt. And they sure fought hard, and it was a great moment seeing them win. I must say, for the first time in a long time I was happier seeing Notre Dame’s opponent celebrate than I was watching the Irish fret. Might have been the first time ever.

Oregon State Beavers (-30.5) @ Washington State Cougars: (WINNER) Well, the Beavers killed WSU, obviously, that was going to happen. But would it be by enough? Ah, the 30 point favorite question. It was a 21-10 half time score, but I must say, I wasn’t too worried until it was only 28-10 after 3. But Jacquizz Rodgers would score his 2nd TD in the 4th, and with 5 minutes left, the Beavers stumbled into another rushing touchdown, getting the cover by a point and a half. Whew.

California Golden Bears  @ Stanford Cardinal (-7): (Loss) Cal went and won outright. Not sure how it happened, maybe it was Stanford getting a little too pass-happy, being a little too young, or just being a little too happy about the things they had done over the last couple weeks. Whatever it was, the Bears took advantage and got a big win on the road.

Nevada Wolf Pack (-31.5) @ New Mexico State Aggies: (WINNER) 63-20. That was the final score in this one – and it wasn’t that close. This one was 28-3 after the 1st, then 42-6 after the 2nd quarter. The 3rd quarter saw two more  Wolf Pack touchdowns as the lead grew to a 50-point margin. The Aggies tried to make it respectable, but since that was impossible, they just settled for two 4th quarter touchdowns to get it within 50. Winner, winner, Sunday College Football chicken dinner!

NCAA Free Football Picks Review: Week 7

Now, I was 6-6, that ain’t half bad, and it surely isn’t great. I feel like I got the raw end of a couple bad beats, but hey, that’s what I deserve because of some big time misses. It goes how it goes, and that’s both ways. Some right, some close, some wrong – but 6-6 is what it is. Hope some of those picks helped you out – it was a solid start to the week for sure. Here’s Week 7 reviewed:

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Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5) @ South Florida Bulls: (WINNER) “What has me taking the road favorite in this one is South Florida’s Thursday Night history. It’s tough to come in and pay mid-week, a lot of teams struggle with it, and the Bulls just happen to be one of those teams. They’ve been embarrassed two straight seasons by big Thursday Night upsets, and I think Cincinnati just happens to be the better team this time around.” Hey, the Bearcats see their starter go down early, but the back-up was just what they needed to stay up on South Florida. That running threat from the QB slot was something the Bulls hadn’t prepared for, and just like the last few seasons, the Bulls find defeat on Thursday Night.

Boise State Broncos @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+9): (WINNER) A tough game, definitely, but I rode the Hurricane to yet another mid-week victory, giving myself a pretty good run in Wednesday-Thursday games this season. I think I have these things down, expect crazy to happen and never give up on a cover, and you have the opponent right where you want them regardless of score. Yeah, I’m winning the crap shoot! Ha.

Oklahoma Sooners (+3.5) @ Texas Longhorns: (WINNER) “Now I seriously doubt the 3.5 will matter much when all is said and done, but the fact that I can win even if the Sooners lose by a field goal makes me feel just that much better about my selection.” Hey, this is why half points matter. If starting quarterback’s go down, and the defense dominates the game, and you still end up winning, that’s usually because of half points. This was a close game, no doubt, two very even teams – and I think Bradford’s shoulder injury put the Sooners in a tough spot. But they battled, and while they still lost, the proved they were a good team, good enough to be considered great value as a +3.5 any day of the week.

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Ohio State Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers (+14): (WINNER) “The Boilermakers might not be the sexy pick, but I’m a firm believer in football karma evening out, and the Boilermakers have played a lot better than their 1-5 record shows.” Haha – I went looking for a minow and found a marlin… The Boilermakers took their 1-5 record into the Ohio State game and showed why football karma is a scary beast. Things worked out this time around, as the Boilermakers not only covered, they pulled out a huge upset over the Buckeyes. Up 23-7, the Boilermakers fended off a late rally, ending up with a 26-18 win over the Buckeyes. Wins like this make the tough weeks feel good.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers (-2.5): (LOSS) Iowa is resiliant, I’ll give them that. Down 10-0 late in the first half, the Hawkeyes finished on a scoring note, cutting the lead to 10-3 a few minutes before half time. They never stopped. With 20 unanswered points, the Hawkeyes shut out the Badgers in the second half and saw their undefeated season continue.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7) @ Clemson Tigers: (LOSS) Clemson dominated. The Deacons didn’t stand a chance. C.J. Spiller did work, as did the rest of the Tiger attack, and I swung and not only missed, but the bat flung out of my hand, straight up in the air, and waited just before I looked up to come crashing down on my face. Sorry about this one, folks.

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Central Michigan Chippewas (-6.5) @ Western Michigan Broncos: (WINNER) “The Chipps are a big public favorite in this one, and it’s because they have a highly rated college quarterback, they are 4-1, they have an upset win over the Spartans to their credit, and they’ve won five straight, and four straight by a touchdown or more. But I like teh Chipps for one reason, and one reason only – in his 3 year career, one filled with success and impressive leadership, Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour has never lost to his in-Michigan rival. There’s something to be said for that. If you can walk into a game saying I’ve always beaten these guys, always, tell your teammates, just follow me, I’ve been here before and I’ve never lost – I’ll take that every time. Rivalry? Sure, but pretty one-sided since Dan started tossing touchdowns.” The game was decent, Dan and company went up big in the first half, the Broncos battled tough in the second, but the Chipps were too much, they had that confidence, and their gun slinging QB finishes his career with 4 wins in this rivalry.

Virginia Tech Hokies (-3) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: (LOSS) “The only chance you have is to beat them in a tough contest. A high scoring game will only end one way, with the Hokies on top. Three points? I don’t care that 70% of the public agrees with me, I’m not even worried.” Well, like a lot of people this Saturday, the Yellow Jackets got the best of me. I really liked what the Hokies were doing coming in, and I was not impressed with the Jackets defense. That being said, Georgia Tech came in and started smacking Va Tech in the mouth from the get go, beat them at their own game, made this a tough contest that I didn’t expect, and got the better of the visiting 4th ranked Hokies.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Florida Gators (-24): (LOSS) And just barely, the Gators walk out of this home tilt with the Razorbacks undefeated, and still on top of the Nations. The game was close, definitely closer than need be for the Gators. They had some huge turnovers early, keeping the Razorbacks on top, and building their confidence with every mishap. In the end, the talent of the Gators was just too much, and they kept their championship run alive. They didn’t get me a win though, of course not.

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Wyoming Cowboys (+10.5) @ Air Force Falcons: (WINNER) What can I say, I had some tough luck on a couple losses during the week, but this 10-0 game was a win nonetheless. I had that extra half point that got me the W just by the course hair on my chin. Like I said, it goes both ways. I’ll take the half point win, as just like any win, it counts the same.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+5.5): (LOSS) “I guess Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh and that’s somehow the reason they are favored by 5.5 points playing at Rutgers on a Friday Night? Otherwise I can’t really explain it. Both teams have one loss, and neither looked pretty in the process.” I don’t think either team looked very good on Friday Night, but I do think this line was more accurate than I originally thought. Rutgers had a final drive going to tie it, but couldn’t do enough to get the job done. It was a close one, a 4th quarter Rutgers touchdown got the game with-in a score, but Pittsburgh outplayed the Knights.

USC Trojans (-10) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: (LOSS)  “You can’t get lucky every week, even if you are Irish. Notre Dame has had a lot of help, “officially”, and I doubt that continues against one of the more talented teams in the country. USC took a loss to Washington earlier this year, but they are still 4-1, and still showing dominance against lesser foes. Don’t get it twisted, the Irish are a lesser foe. 35-14, maybe 20, seems right to me. I’ll take the Trojans!” Now now, let’s start with one fact, I lost this cover. And now I’d like to explain: if you missed this game, you probably just see a close score and consider me foolish for that bet, that prediction. After 3 quarters, I was just about right smack dab on my final score prediction. But the Irish put up some big scores late. ND tried to be lucky, while the ref’s always seemed to see the USC players flexing after a big play, rewarding them with 15 yard penalties, Golden Tate and company were allowed to flex all they wanted – interesting dynamic Notre Dame has with officials, it’s as if the Irish have a major in college officiating. USC was fine with running out the clock in the 4th quarter, and that allowed the Irish to get just close enough to cover the spread. One thing is for real, Golden Tate is won of the best college football players in the Nation. I take the loss here.