California Golden Bears (-6.5) @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: From the outset, this looks eerily like a gimmie game for the Golden Bears, so I’m going to walk you through my steps to understand what they heck Vegas is doing by making the Bears less than a touchdown favorite against an Arizona State team that really hasn’t looked very good at all. Step 1: Is there some kind of freakish injury to a key Bear player that would constitute a spread this low in a game that seems pretty lopsided? Nope, the Bears have one player on the injury report and he’s been there since August… Step 2: are the Bears overrated? You bet, they are way overrated, but they are still way better than the Sun Devils. Step 3: Does Arizona State do something offensively that could leave the Bears vulnerable? Well, anyone that can score points leaves the Bears defense vulnerable, but no, Arizona State runs it a little, can pass it a little, but generally, when they get out-rushed, they lose. They’ve been out-rushed 4 times this year, their only win in those games? Louisiana Monroe. Don’t get me wrong, Cal has disappointed, and almost always they struggle against good teams. Fortunately for you, and for me, the Sun Devils are a bad team, and that is the type of situation that Cal thrives in. I think they win by 3-4 touchdowns in Arizona.
Monthly Archives: October 2009
Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears Pick & Preview
Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Chicago Bears Pick and Preview: I know, big dogs have been suicide all season long, and this very well might be another one of those, lord knows the Browns have it in them – but at the very least, Cleveland has been a defense that forces opposing quarterbacks into bad throws, and if you don’t think Jay Cutler is prone to interceptions than you have been smoking the good stuff. The Browns can, at least, run the football. They have a powerful offensive line, a very underrated unit, and a couple running backs that can get 4 yards a pop. The Bears can be run on, they are beat up in the front 7, they need to commit to helping in the secondary (because they struggle there) and the bottom line is there’s space to run in Chicago. Sure, the Browns have a brutal run defense, sure, they’ve gotten blown out a few times this year, but I think they can stick with the Bears. Chicago will have to show me one heck of a lot more before I take them as a two touchdown favorite this season. They make mistakes on offense, they allow big plays on defense, and they are prone to quick offensive series – that won’t take advantage of Cleveland’s biggest weakness. Always tough to take the Brownies, but the value is with them on the road.
Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Free College Pick
Georgia Bulldogs @ Florida Gators (-15) Pick & Preview: The Bulldogs have played some decent football at times this year, but overall I think they’re overrated. The Gators haven’t really moved the ball well or played mistake free football over the last three weeks, their defense has been winning them football games – so yeah, needless to say, a team that talented is due for a breakout offensive performance. I know the Gators have had a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and a lot of those guys are still questionable headed into Saturday’s SEC showdown with the 5-2 Bulldogs, I know that. But I also know that the back-ups on defense have been solid, that Georgia’s offense will have one hell of a hard time doing anything against the Gators back-ups, and that Tim Tebow and company shouldn’t find the same frustrations in moving the ball against that very giving Georgia defense. In 8 of the last 10 match-ups between these two, the home team has walked away with the W – however, the road team has won the last two meetings. Florida beat the Bulldogs by 39 points last season. These teams are not equal, don’t get it twisted. Ignore the Gators recent struggles, this is a team that will turn it around soon, better to be ahead of that curve!
Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys Free NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) Free Pick: I really want to pick the Seahawks, and at first that’s exactly the directions I was going to go, then I thought about it a little more and though that if Matt Hasselbeck has no time to throw against a physical and athletic defense in Dallas, I don’t see the Hawks making many big plays. Earlier in the year, Dallas was struggling to attack the passer, but it’s hard to imagine that being the case against this make-shift offensive line Seattle has been forced to put together. And now the Cowboys are bringing pressure with ease. Not only that, but Dallas’s offense, a group that had been struggling to find an identity, has seemingly figured it out over the past couple weeks, finding a young receiver named Miles Austin to be the playmaker down the field. With Marion Barber and Felix Jones getting healthier by the day, and Tony Romo seemingly back at his confident place, the Cowboys looks as scary as people expect them to be. The Hawks have only played well against the league’s lesser teams, and while Dallas might not be Super Bowl bound, they are definitely a team fighting for a playoffs spot this season. All things considered, I just think Dallas’s pass rush will be too much. I’ll take Dallas at home.
Fantasy Focus Review: Week 7 Football Analysis
It was a tie for first for the first time this season, but it still stayed in Family. Papa and I both went big and finished a top the rankings, tied, with Josh finishing third and Red Red Ryan was Red Red Last. Some decent performances all week, some big sleeper guys going huge – here’s how the week of 7 went down.
Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…
1. Peyton Manning –Peyton had a nice week, finishing 5 overall, but the Rams weren’t close enough to go huge. B+
2. Drew Brees – Drew was okay, not great, Top 10 but he needed rushing scores to get on this board. B
3. DeAngelo Williams – Despite being forgotten in the second half, D-Lo was 4th in Week 7. A
4. Ben Roethlisberger – 12th overall, not really startable – how the Steelers won is beyond me. C-
5. Roddy White – Roddy was 11th amongst WRs, that’s not too shabby, but it wasn’t as wonderful as I wanted. B+
Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…
1. Eli Manning – Some big dropped passes hurt Eli, but a really lucky tip catch TD helped him. Ellie was bad. D-
2. Steve Smith – 18th overall, on way to a good finish to the season if they can figure it out. B+
3. Marshawn Lynch – He was 15th overall, but didn’t have as good a game as I expected. B-
4. Joseph Addai– 13th overall, not a good point per touch day, but a decent performance fantasy wise. B
5. Ryan Grant – 7th amongst RBs, Grant had a great day running the ball. 147 yards and a score. A+
Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…
1. Laurence Maroney – 21st overall, the Patriots were back to throwing the ball. But not a bad day for LM. B-
2. Cadillac Williams – 28 receiving yards, 29 rushing yards – yeah, missed on this one… F
3. Chris Henry – Henry only had 2 catches, but they went for 26 yards and a TD, not bad for a waiver guy. B-
4. Jeremy Maclin – 38th overall, Maclin has been solid, he was targeted often, was close to a big day. C+
5. Sydney Rice – #6 overall, you betcha! A
Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…
1. Matt Forte – 8 fantasy points, and only because he caught 4 short passes, another brutal day for Forte. A
2. Antonio Bryant – 24th overall, 13 fantasy points, definitely a decent option. Not great though. C-
3. Donnie Avery –Just 7 fantasy points, that’s about what I expected. A
4. Mark Sanchez – 11th overall, good day for Mark, despite the whole hot dog eating thing – nice sleeper. D-
5. Chad Henne – Henne had a bad day, and for that he can thank the 5 drops by Dolphins, and the early lead. A
***Big Bye Week in Week’s 7 and 8: this week don’t play Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks, or Titans! Mind the Gap!!!
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A short “Who did we miss” section this week, because I’m a busy man. How about the Top 2 Running backs in the league this week, a shout out to Ricky Williams and his highest number of touchdowns in any one game in his career, 3 in a loss to the Saints. And Shonn Greene, he went in for Leon Washington when the little back broke his leg, and Shonn went crazy for 144 yards and 2 TDs on fewer than 20 carries. In the QB rankings, everyone missed Carson Palmer (#1 by a long shot) and Tony Tomo (the 2nd highest ranked QB by 4 fantasy points). Alex Smith, yes, the former #1 pick, also came in in sub-duty and finished 7th amongst QBs this week. Austin Miles reminded everyone that maybe last week wasn’t a fluke, as he took the top spot for the 2nd straight week, putting up 35 fantasy points. Chad Johnson finished 2nd. DeSean Jackson was 4th overall, and Sindey Rice and Devin Hester finished a close 6th and 7th – how about Sydney Rice’s move up the charts?
Fantasy Focus: Week 8 Fantasy Football Analysis
Hey, every week you get something new, except for this, the family stays on top all the way into Week 7. This time, it was a brand new way to meet a top the rankings, as Papa and myself tied for top honors. Week 7 sees Tom Brady and company take a break, so I’m going to have to pick another couple receivers in my Top 5, and hopefully my running back 5-some plays better this week. Here goes nothing.
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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…
1. Peyton Manning – He will do in the 49ers secondary, might be a close game, that would be even better.
2. Adrian Peterson – The Packers shut down AP last time out, I DOUBT that happens again. Not this time.
3. Drew Brees – I think the Falcons secondary is having bad dreams with Drew’s post-game suit haunting them…
4. Steve Slaton– He’s had the fumbles, but he’s still one of the most dynamic guys with the ball. Against Buffalo?
5. Chris Johnson– It was just a week away, the Titans needed a season, but I think Chris comes out beating Jags
Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…
1. Kyle Orton – The Ravens might scare the Bronco rush game, but the passing game should flourish.
2. Steve Smith – The Carolina version will have a nice day before his team gets blown out.
3. Marshawn Lynch – I had him here last week, he’s here again seeing Houston in his cross hairs.
4. Steve Smith– The New York version will get his catches against Philly’s D.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I think BJ has his biggest day of the season and tortures Eagle defenders.
Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…
1. Nate Burleson – People are still sleeping on Nate, he’s nasty, the Cowboys will stop the run leaving room to pass.
2. Eddie Royal – Call me nuts, but Baltimore’s secondary allows big plays to good routes.
3. Mike Bell – Bell looked like the best RB in NO last week, this year Sean goes with the hot gun.
4. Donnie Avery – The Rams suck, but this is their chance, and Detroit gives up lots of passing touch downs.
5. Beanie Wells – The guy we call Beanie should find wide open spaces against the Panthers run D, one of the worst.
Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…
1. Julius Jones – don’t get confused and mistake Julius for his brother Thomas.
2. Thomas Jones – speaking of the brother, he’s a much better play than Julius, but still should struggle vs Miami.
3. Roy Williams – Roy might be the 3rd best receiver on his own team, he’s #3 option the passing game. Bench.
4. Matt Hasselbeck – I hope I’m wrong here, but if I were Matt I’d be really worried about the Cowboys D front.
5. LeSean McCoy – He gets the start, but it’s tough to think he’ll put dents in that Giants defensive front.
***Big Bye Week in Week 8: this week don’t play Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks, or Titans! Mind the Gap!!!
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Week 8 Fantasy Rankings
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TNT Thursday Night: San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers
You can follow both of Thursday Night’s NBA games on TNT. The San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls play at 8:00pm ET, while the Denver Nuggets play in Portland at 10:30pm ET. In both situations, the home teams are playing on a day’s rest while the visitors are playing the second of back to back games. Here are my picks for Thursday’s action.
San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) @ Chicago Bulls: The Bulls will be playing their first game of the season, and you know with a young team that first-game anxiousness will be there in full effect. Chicago has a solid front line, but against Tim Duncan’s crafty old ways, I think they’ll be abused in the post a little bit. San Antonio is playing the second of a back to back, but with last night’s game being such a blow out, the key guys for the Spurs got plenty of rest, and if anything Wednesday Night was an opportunity for the Spurs to get together as a squad. This is a very veteran team, and against a young Bulls team on their opening night, I like the Spurs chances of winning on the road.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers (-7): I think 7 is too much, and it might come back to haunt me, but I like the Trailblazers to win, so I have to take them and the points here. Denver definitely had to exude some effort last night, and everything fell for them in the second half to get their win at home against the Jazz. Portland is a different group with some big bodies down low that can change a lot of shots. The Blazers looked really good on their opening night Tuesday, and the way those guys get along should give them some nice confidence in this one. Portland is rested, ready to go, and ready to prove themselves against one of the West’s best. I like them to win this Thursday.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Orlando Magic Free NBA Pick
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic (-9) NBA Pick: I know it’s just the pre-season, but the Magic absolutely walked through opponents like they were playing against back-ups. There’s something to be said for an offense that has been clicking for weeks. Especially when they are playing against an offense that hasn’t clicked at all. If the Magic looked like the best pre-season offense, the most comfortable, all the pieces clicking – the 76ers looked like a box of random toys, a couple legos, a building block, a barbie, two dinosaurs, and a coloring book. I know they are learning a new offense, but that’s exactly it, they haven’t figured it out yet. They have some studs, so guys who can get their shot like Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, and Thadeus Young can stroke jumpers as well, but together they look like a bunch of pieces not fitting together, not yet anyway. Vince Carter is ready to show his worth and Jameer Nelson is excited to be back after he was injured late last season for much of the Magic’s playoff run. These two teams know each other well, meeting in the playoffs last season as the 76ers took a couple from Orlando, even one in Orlando. But this is a different 76ers offense, They are not comfortable in what they are doing, and that should make the difference.
Sacramento Kings vs Oklahoma Thunder Free Basketball Pick
Sacramento Kings (+7.5) @ Oklahoma Thunder Pick: I like the Thunder, I think they are one of the most exciting teams in the league, but I don’t think they are ready to have any value what-so-ever as a 7 point favorite. I know hoops can go fast, spreads are tough to really predict, but the Thunder aren’t going to blow a lot of teams out, especially teams with solid big men that can score on the post. Feel free to laugh now, but the Kings actually have a trio of capable low-post scorers. Sean May (this is the part where you are welcome to laugh), Jason Thompson, (yes, probably a guy you don’t know too much about, but the guy is a big body that works his tail off, and he can score it) and Spencer Hawes (can score from anywhere in the offense) are three guys that are going to give Thunder post players fits. The Thunder have an absolute stud in Kevin Durrant, they have nice young players like Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, and rookie shooting guard James Harden, and some good bench pieces as well. But they will have trouble with good bigs, and the Kings might not have well known bigs, but they can score, especially against Oklahoma. I’ll take the dogs here.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors Free NBA picks
Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Cavs played last night, and maybe in the beginning of the season they might not have the endurance they want, but I can’t see them falling to 0-2, and that’s exactly what a loss to the Raptors would bring them to. Tell me who, which one guy on the Raptors roster, can stop Shaq? Not a one. He should beast that skinny front line in Toronto. I already know that nobody can guard LeBron James. Cleveland has too much power up front, and they have too much pride to start the season with two straight losses. Despite being the second game of a back to back, I expect Cleveland to get their first win of the season, and it should be by double digits.