South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I know that I always take the unranked favorite over the ranked dog, but this one is going to be different. Favoring the Vols here is based solely off their ability to play close to top ranked teams, without ever winning of course. Well, despite what people have chosen to believe, these Gamecocks can play ball. At 6-2 they’ve lost a close one at Georgia and another tough one on the road at Alabama. Now, the Vols beat up on Georgia, but the Bulldogs were working against themselves in that one, Tennessee just had to show up to take advantage. Despite that one game, Tennessee hasn’t shown the offensive explosion to be a 6.5 point favorite against a solid team, especially not one with a powerful defense. Expect the Gamecocks to cover in Tennessee. I do.
Monthly Archives: October 2009
Washington State Cougars vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Washington State Cougars @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-27.5): I don’t know why this spread is shrinking, it started at 30 and has moved all the way down past 4 touchdowns. I’m telling you, the Cougars can’t score more than a couple times. I think The Irish will have 6 touchdowns by 2nd quarter. I love to fade the Cougars, and it got me by a couple points last week when they just barely covered against the Bears – but the Irish have a much more dynamic offense than the Bears, and they can really score points quick. I like them to win easily at home in this one, by 6 or 7 touchdowns. I think a lot of sharp bets see that the Irish haven’t beaten up on anyone yet, and they get worried about covering 4 touchdowns. Nobody they’ve played compares to WSU, Nevada would kill WSU, the Irish smoked them 35-0. Don’t look at the Cougars as a Pac-10 big conference team, they will get beat up by most. I love this bet.
San Francisco 49ers vs Indianapolis Colts Free pick
San Francisco 49ers (+13.5) @ Indianapolis Colts Free Pick: I liked the 49ers at -12 to start the week, but this one has a chance of getting to 14 points. Oh, that would make me feel so good. Still, 13 is a good number to get past as well, that way a touchdown and a couple field goals up still keeps me in the money. The 49ers are a good team, and I know the Colts have marched through quite a few squads so far, leaving nothing but Peyton Manning commercials in their wake, but this 49er team has heart, they showed that early in the season and they showed that late last week when they fought and scratched back into a game most teams would have just walked away from. Alex Smith definitely has his hands full in his first start in quite some time, but I think the 49ers can run on Indy if they just full commit to doing so. Frank Gore should be healthier and back in the game this week. I see this game being a lot closer. An out right win would surprise me, but don’t put it past the 49ers, staying within 13 seems like a good bet to me.
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Free NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-3) Free NFL Pick: Let me say this, the Dolphins straight kicked around the Jets last time these two teams went at it, and the Jets have only gotten bad news in terms of their run defense since then, Kris Jenkins is out for the season. But the Jets aren’t as bad as they played a few weeks ago, and they won’t be that bad this Sunday. It’s very hard to beat a good team twice, especially in such a short period of time. You think the Jets will walk into this game like they deserve to win? After the beatdown the Wildcat put on them last time around? I don’t think so. If I know what the Jets are looking at, and how they are preparing, I don’t think there will be another defense more prepared for what the Dolphins are going to run this time out. The Dolphins have won 2 straight games dating back to last season, but the Jets have won 7 of the last 10 meetings between the two. They have also have a 7-2-1 ATS record in those last 10 games. Giving the ball to Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene is the answer for the Jets, they’ll commit to that this week.
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick
New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick: I’m not sure which team played worse last week. I know the Eagles won, so automatically you have to say the Giants turned up the suck the loudest, but I’m not so sure the Eagles would have beaten anybody else in the league besides say Washington and St. Louis last Monday Night. They looked stagnant offensively, getting bailed out by some poor defensive plays on some big passes. That being said, the Giants only really effective pass play was Eli throwing it off the Cardinals secondary in hopes that they would deflect one to Hakeem Nicks. The worked once, and thus the touchdown happened. The Giants have taken it pretty good over their last two games, and I can’t say that doesn’t make me grin a little. The only problem is I picked them on both occasions, and I can’t say that doesn’t make me frown a little. So I have a weird face on, a grin-frown, and I’m still taking the Giants. I’m still rooting hard for Philly, but if the Raiders front can give Donovan and company fits, I believe the Giants’ front 4 will make life downright miserable for the Philly hurler. 68% of the public is with me, dang them. The Giants are 22-5 ATS over their last 27 road games. That’s filthy. Can you blame the public?
UCLA Bruins vs Oregon State Beavers Free NCAA Pick
UCLA Bruins (+10.5) @ Oregon State Beavers: I think these two teams are awfully close talent-wise, and despite losing 4 straight games (also 0-4 ATS in those games), the Bruins aren’t out of it. They have some solid players, and defensively they should be a little bit of a challenge for Oregon State’s run-game. I know the Beavers have played well lately, even going to the wire with USC, but the Bruins have had some tough luck and I feel like that’s about to change. Football karma definitely goes around. As a 10.5 point underdog, the value is pretty good. The Bruins have played pretty solid teams in their 4 straight Pac-10 losses, and I think they’ll be ready for this game because of those. The Beavers are solid, no doubt, but UCLA is being underrated here, the value is with them.
Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Free Pick
Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6) Free Pick: First of all, rarely do Texas Tech Red Raider games come down to 6 points, so if you think the Raiders are going to win, a 6 point spread shouldn’t worry you at all. And it doesn’t worry me. I know Kansas had a nice run to start the season, but you saw how out-matched they were last week when Oklahoma absolutely blew them out of the water. Texas Tech isn’t Oklahoma, but they do have the offensive ability to crush the Jayhawks. What makes me like the Red Raiders even more are the words from Mike Leach’s mouth about how the Raiders are playing like piss because of their fat little girl friends. Awesome. If that doesn’t get their attention, nothing will. After beating up on Nebraska, the Red Raiders fell to Texas A&M, and they fell hard. I think Leach’s antics and just being a better football team gets them back on track this week at home, then Jayhawks just happen to be the team in the way. Texas Tech has taken each of the last 3 meetings with Kansas, and 6 out of the last 7. Last year the Red Raiders smoked the Jayhawks, 63-21. They can put up some points, and since Kansas has yet to slow down any reasonable offense whatsoever, I can’t see them doing anything to slow one of the most dynamic offenses in college football.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Pick: The Broncos are 6-0, undefeated, just like the Colts and Saints – yet they’ve only been favored twice all season long. They were favored at home against the Cleveland Browns (by 3) and in Oakland against those always powerful Raiders (by 1). 6 games down, 6 wins in the bag, and just two times they’ve been favored to do so, and those were against a couple of the worst teams in football – amazing. And here they are again, going up against a physical Ravens team, be them 3-3, and Denver is once again a Dog. Does the fairytale have to stop? I’m not so sure, but this game should be one hell of a rough and tumble affair. But getting just a hair more than a field goal, I have to like that in a game that almost promises to be tight. Combined, these two teams are a bettor’s dream, 10-2 ATS on the season. Baltimore has played in 5 close games so far this season. Their only blowout, the Browns. Even Kansas City hung tough well into the 4th. 3 of Denver’s 6 wins have come by a touchdown or less. It’s just in their blood, they play tough, they limit mistakes, they tackle well, they cut down on the big play. It’s Broncos or nothing here, that’s where my value-meter stands.
Missouri Tigers vs Colorado Buffaloes Free NCAA Pick
Missouri Tigers @ Colorado Buffaloes (+4) Free NCAA Pick: These teams are closer in ability that anybody thinks. They both struggle against good teams, but both can bring a good attack on any given day. The Buffaloes are always good at home, something that makes them a nice value bet here. Colorado hasn’t beaten Missouri since 2005, but five out of the last 6 match-ups between these two teams have gone the way of the home team. Missouri’s getting a spread as if they’re the much better team, 3.5 points on the road, come on. You add the fact that their starting quarterback is questionable with a bum wheel, and the spread looks even more ridiculous. Colorado has played very well at times this year, and I think they have a good shot to beat the Tigers.
Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Pick & Preview
Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: The Bills have feasted on opposing quarterbacking mistakes – but I’m sorry, Matt Schaub isn’t a rookie and he’s definitely not Jake Delhomme. Also, the Texans don’t need to pass the ball to win, and the Bills can’t focus their defense on one thing the Texans do to win. Houston can win a lot of ways, and they have a lot of weapons. If you haven’t noticed, Matt Schaub has become one of the better QBs in the NFL. He can throw the ball against anyone, and he has. The Bills’ defense still has a lot of people either missing from or questionable in Sunday’s game. They have an offense that is limited at best. Despite Houston’s history they have been better defensively of late. Sure, the 49ers got back in the game in the 2nd half last week by finding Vernon Davis for 3 touchdowns, but the Texans shut down one of the better rushing attacks in the league, and have shown the ability to make opposing offenses do something they don’t want to do. In a shoot out, the Texans get the nod. In a close game, the Texans have the ability to make that big play that wins the game. They are favored by a field goal on the road, something that has been scary for Texans’ backers for a long time. But this team is a little different. I expect them to battle for a playoff spot, they know this one is important with some big games against solid teams coming up – they have to beat the teams that they are supposed to beat. I’m taking the Texans by a field goal and expecting them to win by a touchdown, maybe two.