Monthly Archives: November 2008

theRUNDOWN: Week 11

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Last week was one of my better RUNDOWN’s despite Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings pooping their respective bunk beds. This is my RUNDOWN for Week 11…

QB: Jay Cutler vs. Atlanta: I’m hoping to be wrong about this one, because I play against Cutler in some pretty big leagues this week – but the kid should have a nice game against a Falcons team that has been playing better in the secondary – it’s time to come back to reality folks.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: Forte is the Bears offense, the Packers can’t stop the run, Matt catches passes with ease – nice play here.

RB: Frank Gore vs. St.Louis: Not only do I like Frank and his matchup – but how do you think the kid feels after falling down and costing his team a win last week? I’d like to think that he has a huge game against the Rams here.

FLEX: DeAngelo Williams vs. Detroit: I like some touchdowns against the Lions defense – weird.

WR: Anquan Boldin vs. Seattle: Because nobody can stop this guy. He’s a touchdown machine.

WR: Roddy White vs. Denver: I like Roddy a ton, and so does Matt Ryan – that means good things for both of us against the Broncos “secondary” – brutal.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. New Orleans: He may be old, but he’s damn good, and he’s getting targeted by Thigpen more than any other player on KC’s roster.

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Buffalo: I’d go for Gostkowski, but I’m late – he already had a huge game. So I’ll take Jason Elam to put up a couple field goals and about 4-5 extra points. Let the field goals be long ones Jason!!!

D: Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit: Two weeks in a row? Hey, blame the schedulers – Oakland and Detroit back to back is like Halloween and Christmas clumped into one. That’s right, girls dressed in hot little outfits and presents.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Amazingly, you can still get him and he’s probably your best starting option this week. I know he’s starting for me. Does that mean bad things? Hmmm….

Matt Ryan: Is he a sleeper still? He’s a nice play against Denver.

Ricky Williams: They want to get him the ball more, he looks solid, he plays Oakland. There you have it. There’s a chance you can pick him up to fill in for Steven Jackson. Do it.

Jerious Norwood: I’d rather start Norwood in a PPR league than a big clump of starters this week – so he’s a nice sleeper option.

Brandon Jones: He’s been consistent over the last few weeks, and Jacksonville’s defense is lost – he’s a decent option.

Mark Bradley: He might still be available – don’t hesitate.

Deion Branch: He’s risky, no doubt, but pick him up at least. He’s back, and so is my bald brother Matt – so don’t mess around.

Billy Miller: I’ll go with Billy until Jeremy Shockey pulls his head out. Got me?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Should stop the run enough to make Gus throw – that means picks.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

David Garrard: I don’t think much of David against the TItans – Jacksonville will try to run all day. That won’t work either, but goodness, I don’t see Jacksonville scoring more than once.

Willis McGahee: No thank you. I don’t think Willis has played well in two straight games this whole season. The Giants will hammer out the Ravens run I reckon.

Brandon Jacobs: He looked pretty banged up last week and this week is pure death, Baltimore. I would stay away from Jacobs if you have another option.

TJ Houshmanzadeh: If you can still get good stuff for him, trade him, this week is a start of a terrible schedule the rest of the way.

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 10

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167 for me this week, and that was with 11 points between my starting receiver and QB – so baiscally I killed it the rest of the way. But that wasn’t all, I was on fire with my sits and sleepers – I do work.

QB: Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota: Rodgers did take over for Brett’s disgusting Dome habits and didn’t do anything worth while on Sunday. His 5 fantasy points made me want to puke a little bit.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Green Bay: 31 fantasy points for AP – 2nd best amongst running backs, and it was his 192 yards with his team carefully sitting cross legged squarely on his shoulders that impressed me the most. Beast.

RB: Jamal Lewis vs. Denver: Jamal had 16 fantasy points, but I expected more. The Broncos did everything they could to stop the run.

FLEX: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. KC: Tomlinson had 14 fantasy points, but he didn’t have that good of a day. He had a low YPC average against the worst run defense in the league, and only scored decent points because of his receptions out of the backfield. Tough year to pick LT first overall, that’s for sure.

WR: Anquan Boldin vs. San Francisco: 2nd overall with 29 WR fantasy points. This guy catches touchdowns, he’s a beast, he’s fearless, and that says a lot for a guy with plates and jack in his face. Beast.

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Minnesota: 6 fantasy points for Greg, matching his QB, perfect… Ugh.

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Denver: He may have dropped a late 4th down pass, and his fumble was huge, but if it weren’t for Winslow basically beasting Denver all night long, the Browns wouldn’t have been in that position – so there Chris Collinsworth- you dick. Winslow finished two points behind Tony Gonzalez as he tallied 31 fantasy points. NIce day for me.

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Buffalo: Only 8 fantasy points for Stephen, but that’s good enough for me.

D: Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland: 27 fantasy points and the 2nd best defense in the league (2nd to my sleeper pick, mind you) – so I basically did work this week.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: My new favorite players was 3rd overall for quarterbacks with 30 fantasy points. A+ and keep him on your roster folks.

Daunte Culpepper: 104 yards and a pick. No touchdown after leading his team down to the 1 yard line – Drew Stanton came in to throw the TD. Interesting. I was right and then wrong – what can you do? F

Maurice Jones Drew: The guy had 3 scores and 70 yards on 11 carries.  He also caught the rock. 2 RBs had better fantasy days than Drew’s 29 points, AP and Thomas Jones. A

Timothy Hightower: Shut down! 13 totes for 22 yards. Maybe he’s not the next Edge, eh? F

Mushin Muhammad: 12 fantasy points for Mush on a day where Jake Delhomme was about as bad as a QB can be. An early TD saved Mush’s day. Still, I expected more. B-

Mark Bradley: 23 fantasy points, 5th overall, for Mark freaking Bradley – I dig this kid. A

Billy Miller: 11 fantasy points as Billy hits double digits again – as a sleeper TE there might not be anybody better than Billy. B+

New York Jets: 47-3… I’m not even going to calculate the points, but the Jets did work. There were the best defense in the league this week though.  A

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Big Ben Roethlisberger: Five points for Ben, and he was almost the high scorer on my Splinter-Butts section. I had a great week, better than Ben.

Bernard Berrian: BB didn’t do anything. NO catches or fantasy points or anything. Did I mention I lost my game by an overtime player? Did I also mention that Marvin would have won me that game? I get a great grade here, but a dumb above my fantasy move.

Steve Slaton: Slaton didn’t do anything – he wasn’t a top 50 running back last week. Good thing I let you know.

Marvin Harrison: You’re welcome – 6 fantasy points on a day where he dropped as many balls as he caught. Tough day for Marv – but he’ll bounce back… I think.

DirecTV ESPN GamePlan Free Picks: Week 12

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DirecTV has some games on their agenda these days, or at least on their plethora of channels – here they are. I’ve picked everyone, leaning one way or another and maybe even giving a reason or two why. Let the Week 12 begin!

Rutgers (+8) @ South Florida: What has Rutgers done for me lately? A lot more than what the South Florida Bulls have done, that’s for sure. as a touchdown underdog, I see the Scarlet Knights playing good enough football against a tough opponent to cover this game. The Knights had a disappointing start to the season, but things can change, and they certainly have with 3 straight wins including a win over Connecticut and a win over Pittsburgh.

Duke (+11.5) @ Clemson: Duke has been the better team all year long. I know that’s surprising, especially for me, a guy who can’t stand Duke doing anything good – but it’s true. They make far fewer mistakes, they play decent defense, and despite a 1-4 stretch of late, they will give Clemson trouble. The Tigers definitely have the talent over the Devils, but Duke is turning the corner and it will be those lack of mistakes that keeps them close.

Georgia (-8.5) @ Auburn: This may seem like a gimmie, but it’s not necessarily that way. The Bulldogs barely slipped by the Wildcats last week, and they were outscored by 39 at home against Florida two weeks ago. Close wins over LSU, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee are starting to lose a lot of their luster, no doubt about that. HOwever, Auburn’s inability to play well against anybody doesn’t excite me, and despite their knack for close games, I have a feeling this one will be a beatdown of Knowshon proportions.

Middle Tennessee State (-2) @ Western Kentucky: MTSU has played tougher against better teams – they can score points, have a solid passing attack, and good leadership. Neither of these teams are good, don’t get it twisted, and between the two there is only one road win on the season. But the better team is MTSU, they are good enough to be favored on the road as a 3 win team, and that tells me a lot about Western Kentucky. I’m taking the Blue Raiders (that’s MTSU for those that don’t know their Mascot).

Toledo (+16) @ Western Michigan: Toledo has one good game against a decent team, and no I’m not talking about their win over Michigan – the Wolverines suck. I’m talking about a close loss at home against Central Michigan. Other than that, they’ve played terribly – especially on the road. Take away their win at Michgan and they’ve lost two straight on the road, to Norther Illinois and Akron, but 31 and 17 respectively. Western Michigan is better than that. But there’s this little thing called a let down game, and that’s what has me riding the Toledo Rockets in this one. Western Michigan sure can score the pigskin, but they allow a good amount of points as well. After upsetting Illinois (though it wasn’t much of an upset, but still a big win over a big name school) this game should be one in which they come out a little flat. I still like them to win, but Toledo at +16 will be my pick here.

California @ Oregon State (-3): I really want to go with the Bears here, because they have played decent teams lately where Oregon State has been subject to a four game stretch that started with the Washington schools (which are basically like playing your incoming freshmen in a scrimmage) and then Arizona State and UCLA (neither are worth much, though ASU gave the Beavers fits). They are 4-0 in their last 4, but haven’t played a good team since they lost to Utah on the 2nd of October. Cal beat Oregon two weeks ago, lost to USC last week – so they should be ready. Except that they haven’t beaten anybody on the road besides Washington State on September 9th. So, like I said, they haven’t beaten anybody on the road yet this season. The Beavers are undefeated at home, and that includes a game in which they dominated USC and barely won – and dominated Hawaii and destroyed them by 38. The Beave is a tough place to play and that’s what has me rocking the rude orange and black colors in this one.

North Carolina @ Maryland (+3): The Tar Heels have taken 5 of their last 6, and played well doing so. They stomped Georgia Tech last week, and basically doubled up Boston College three weeks ago. In their 5 recent wins, they took out Miami, Connecticut, and Notre Dame as well. But this should be a bit of a let down week for the Heels, a win gets them a tie for first place in their division, but they are walking into Maryland. The Terps are undefeated at home and as good as NC is, they aren’t far and above better than Maryland. The Terps have crushed some dreams this season, and are trying to find the way to the top of their own half of the ACC. In College football, the home field advantage can be the answer to your betting questions – this is one of those times.

New Mexico State (+17) @ Fresno State: This seems like a good bet. Despite Fresno killing their bettors, the public still seems to love them, just waiting for them to finally win their second game against the spread. Interesting. The Aggies have played close to teams all year long, sans a couple games against Nebraska and Boise State. The Aggies have played well on the road (despite losing to horrible Idaho) – they did beat Nevada – and UTEP. They’ve played tight with Hawaii, San Jose State, and New Mexico – and they have a short history of playing tight with better Fresno State clubs, winning 3 of their last 4 Bulldog games against the spread. What has Fresno done to be a 17 point favorite this season? Nothing is the answer. Take the Aggies.

Boise State @ Idaho (+36.5): Tough game for me, I don’t like it. This is on the road for Boise, but not really – you’d think most of that little forgotten state is rooting for the Broncos to go undefeated, and they definitely have all the firepower needed to beat the Vandals by 7 touchdowns or more. But they are undefeated, and Idaho would like nothing more than to crush their in-state rivals hearts. That won’t happen, don’t worry Bronco fans, and the fact that Boise State has covered 3 times in the last 4 years against the Vandals has me steering the way of the Bronco. Those spreads were all big, 34, 31, and 30 – all covers. But there there’s Idaho covering each of the last two games at Idaho – and never has the spread been as high as it is for this weekend’s tilt. That alone has me finding value with the stinking Vandals, a team I really can’t stand but have to pick here. There it is.

Oklahoma Stae @ Colorado (+18): Texas was only a 12 point favorite at Colorado this season. So can you see the inflation of this spread? I know the Buffs haven’t played well of late, losing to basicaly all the solid teams they’ve played – but they are at home, their only loss at home came to Texas, and while it was a 26 point loss, I have a feeling this one will be closer. The Buffaloes are always good at home, and this spread is about a touchdown bigger than it should be. Value has me taking Colorado.

Troy State (+16.5) @ LSU: I feel like punching myself for going this route – but that’s what my value chart has me picking. I would say DON’T BET ON THIS GAME!!! SO there you go. Troy has played solid football on the road, and LSU has too many close games against mediocre teams. On the other hand, you have to see that LSU’s 3 losses haven’t come to donkeys – Alabama, Florida, and Georgia are pretty legit folks – so they could come out and really run this score up. I have to pick this, so Troy is my pick, but I don’t recommend much of a play here.

Boston College @ Florida State (-6): The Eagles shut out Notre Dame last week, but that doesn’t tell me much. What tells me more is their road games this year, and how they haven’t looked that good. Throw out a 21-0 win over Kent State – thanks. They barely snuck by the Wolfpack of NC State and got hammered by the Tar Heels in Carolina. I’d say FSU is close to North Carolina’s level of talent, so I expect a two touchdown win by the Seminoles in this one.

NCAA Football Free Picks: Week 12

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I have less games for you this week, just 7 solid bets that catch my eye – but don’t fret folks, I also will have a DirecTV ESPN GamePlan section again this week – so there will be plenty of college games to choose from. Lets hope I rock the push this week and dominate in the 70% column…. Here’s what I got.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-9.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini: Here it goes folks, write this down… The Buckeyes are WAY better than the Illini. That’s right, on Juice’s best day he won’t crack this Ohio State offense for much more than 3 scores, and the Buckeyes will run all over a very shaky Illinois defense. Take the Buckeyes in an easy one.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats: I’m not a fan of Bobby P – but he does some good things in College ball. The Cornhuskers have played pretty well down the stretch, and I expect them to continue to improve the more time they have to learn Bobby’s style. They should easily oust a K-State team that has looked overmatched in almost every single conference game they’ve played. What else? Well, the Cornhuskers have played solid football on the road – and that’s never a good thing for a bad home team.

Washington State Cougars (+36.5) @ Arizona State Wildcats: Here’s the deal. You know how I feel about Washington schools, and this is going straight against my credo, but the Wildcats will have a very hard time scoring 42 points against any single team in the Nation – and the Cougars will score at least once. That means the Cougars are a solid bet here. Who knows what happens, but the Cougars shouldn’t be getting this many points – or maybe they should, but not against the ASU boys – that team just isn’t very good at all. I hate doing it, I really do, but winning is winning and the Cougs should get me a win this week.

Arizona Wildcats (+4) @ Oregon Ducks: I know Oregon is a very tough place to play, and the Ducks have been solid this year – but Arizona is the better team. The only time the Wildcats struggle, or play below their talent level, is when they go up against an inferior opponent. They won’t feel that way as an underdog – and I’m always a fan of taking Arizona as an underdog in the Pac 10.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Houston Cougars (+4.5): These teams are as close to even as an 8-1 versus a 5-4 can get. Houston is at home, they play well there. Tulsa is coming off a game that saw their perfect season end. Everyone thinks Tulsa is the much better team. There’s a lot of reasons I like Houston here, but the fact that they are just as good as Tulsa and playing at home makes them a solid bet for me – oh, and they are dogs.

San Jose State Spartans (+15.5) @ Nevada Wolfpack: Here’s another game with two very even teams. The Wolfpack are coming off a nice win over Fresno last week, but that doesn’t make them that much better than San Jose State. The Spartans are coming off a terrible game last week, losing 21-0 against Louisiana Tech – but they aren’t that bad folks. And if one thing is true about sports, it’s that things even out. Solid teams play great games followed by mediocre games, and bad games followed by good games – this one will even out – and at a 15.5 point dog, the Spartans are a great bet to give the Wolfpack hell, even in Nevada.

UCLA Bruins (-7) @ Washington Huskies: I’ll take anyone besides WSU as a 7 point favorite over the Huskies – even a pretty bad UCLA team. The Huskies played better than they are last week – so be excited to jump on this game here. Just look at the Huskies injury list – it’s just about as big as their healthy roster. UCLA should win this game easily.

Ten for Tuesday

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I’ve been doing some thinking and I see a five and five scenario taking place over the last 6 weeks of fantasy football. Five guys that will impress you, or play much better than they’ve played to start the season – and five guys that are going to tumble like that egg headed dumpty fellow. Last week for trades in those leagues in which the deadline hasn’t already passed – these are what my party invites look like. In no particular order, here are my lists.

High Five

1. Tyler Thigpen: Yep, still on his bandwagon. For some reason, a really easy schedule and one more game with a bunch of yards and touchdowns wihtout interceptions keeps him high on my list. Until he has a couple bad weeks in a row, I’m riding with him. Against the Saints this week – you bet he’s starting over Brett Favre on my club.

2. Deion Branch: He can’t possibly get hurt again, can he? Alright he’s a shot in the dark, but in over 90% of Yahoo leagues, this guy is available – I’m sure it’s the same in most leagues and don’t forget, this is a guy that has really produced when he’s played over the last few years. Branch may not be a big touchdown guy, but he makes things happen and gets the ball a lot. With Matt Hasselbeck back for the remainder of the season, I like the chance Deion has of making good on some pre-season predictions some people on this site.

3. New York Jets Defense: I know it’s not “cool” to throw out a defense, but stop me when you see an offensive juggernaut remaining on the Jets schedule… New England, Tennessee, Denver (okay, but lots of mistakes), San Francisco, Buffalo, Seattle, Miami – something tells me they’re going to continue the great defensive season they’ve been putting together. Right now they are the 3rd ranked defense in fantasy, and they are owned in just over 60% of leagues. Come on folks. San Fran, Buffalo, and Seattle during the playoffs – you betcha!

4. Matt Forte: I’ve heard lots of stuff about Forte stumbling down the stretch because of all the carries he’s been getting – hogwash. Obviously those people haven’t looked at Matt’s schedule going forward. Not only has he been solid since the bye, and is the #1 PPR running back, but Matt has Green Bay (easy), St. Louis (easy), Jacksonville (easy), New Orleans (easy), and Green Bay (easy again) to play against with just Minnesota as his lone tough defense on his schedule. He also has Houston in Week 17, but most fantasy leagues are over by then. I like Matt going forward, that’s for sure.

5. Reggie Wayne: He sure hasn’t produced like a Top 3 receiver – but don’t you worry, Wayne’s remaining opponents have something in common – see if you can figure it out… Houston, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Jacksonville… (and a tough Week 17 against Tennessee, but I’m not counting that). So did you get what those teams have in common? If you selected an absolutely brutal secondary and defense altogether, you win a prize, hurry, get Wayne now before someone else sees his remaining schedule. He has 49 receptions for 700 yards and 5 touchdowns – I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with at least that much in his next 7 games…

Down in the Slumps

1. Frank Gore: I love this player and now that he’ll be getting normal running back carries with Samari Mike running the show, he’s never going to be a bad bet – however, after this great match-up against the Rams, Frank goes four straight weeks of tough defenses – Dallas, Buffalo, the Jets, and the Dolphins. He started nice, and has been a nice PPR guy, but Gore’s only rushed for one touchdown in his last 6 games.

2. Marion Barber: I think he’s one of the better running backs in the league – so I wouldn’t get rid of the guy, but if you do listen to your brain and not your heart, it might be time to move Marion. During the playoffs Marion goes heads up against Pittsburgh, the Giants, and the Ravens – good luck finding good weeks in that crap tornado.

3. Brandon Jacobs: I hope he doesn’t, because I would never want a guy to get hurt, but Jacobs is definitely a candidate to break down before the season is over. Anybody that watches him run knows the strain he goes through on a game to game basis, he makes car accidents happen. And while he is the one usually delivering the blow, he is still in a bunch of accidents. He has had his fair share of pains over the years, and while New York does a good job of limiting his touches (only 2 games over 20 carries, and just 21 and 22 respectively) he still takes a lot of body punishment. Not only that, but Baltimore, Arizona, Washington, Philadelphia, Dallas, Carolina, and Minnesota aren’t really the easy defenses one would hope to run against down the stretch. There’s not an easy match-up in that bunch.

4.T.J Houshmanzadeh: I would say Chad Johnson, but he hasn’t been too productive during the season anyway. T.J. has still been solid, but it doesn’t look good for him going forward. He had a bye last week, but that looks like his last easy go at it. Philly, Pittsburgh, Balitmore, Indianapolis, Washington, and Cleveland. The light at the end of the tunnel doesn’t come until maybe Cleveland and then KC in Week 17, but if you are depending on Housh over the next few weeks, you might not be playing that long. An no Carson Palmer most likely, not much grand about that.

5. Willis McGahee: I don’t think it’s possible to like this guy in the first place, especially after screwing owners in Week 9 with a suit up but did not play fantasy score killer – but I have to like him even less moving forward, despite his 25 carry 112 yard 2 touchdown performance in Week 10 – he plays the Giants, the Eagles, the Bengals (you get one good match-up in Week 13), then the Reskins, Steelers, and Cowboys before going to Jacksonville in Week 17. It’s not looking good for him folks.

NFL Free Picks: Week 11

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9 in 9, 10 in 10, does that make 11 in Week 11 a lock? Hardly. However, I’m on to something here and we’ll see if I can’t make it work three weeks in a row. Here goes something big…

New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots: New England has lost just once to the Jets since 2004 – that’s 9 wins and 1 loss. New England has taken the last four contests, and the games haven’t been closer than 9 points. That being said, I don’t think the Patriots have been this decimated by injuries since, well, forever. The Jets come in 2-2 on the road, a beatdown at the hands of San Diego and a pathetic loss to the Raiders, but a couple solid wins over Miami and Buffalo. They are winners of 3 straight, and they seem to have their running attack going pretty good lately. I don’t think the Patriots will be able to run against Kris Jenkins and his marry men. I also know that the Patriots can’t gang up to stop just one part of the Jets offense, as the run and the pass are both options for Brett and the Jets. This is a tough one for me, that’s right folks, I’m not beaming with confidence on my side here, but I’ll take the healthy road team in this one. That extra half a point will make me a winner in case of a field goal loss, and that’s enough for me in this even battle. I also like the thought of New York splitting this series. I don’t think this game will have many fireworks, so don’t expect a repeat of the Browns/Broncos from last Thursday night. Both of these teams play defense.

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5): Once again, if the Falcons can run, they’ve shown they can win. They have just three losses on the season, and those games were against Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, and Carolina – three very good run defenses. The Broncos can’t bring pressure, they definitely can’t stop the run, and the can’t run the ball either. Don’t sleep on the Falcons just because they are the Falcons – this is one of the better stories in football, and a Mike Smith team will always take advantage of turnovers. The Broncos are bound to give the ball away a few times. Also – the Falcons are undefeated at home – lots working in their favor here.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10): Like the Falcons and the Panthers, the Dolphins have shown that if they can run on you, they will beat you. But by 10? 11? 12? That makes it a little tougher – so while I’m surely on the Dolphins to oust the Raiders for a surefire Survivor pool pick here, I need more reasons to bet on them as a big favorite. I know that the Raiders are 1-3 as an underdog of 9 points or more. Their losses come to San Diego (lost by 10 in a 9 point spread, but it was a late LT touchdown that did it, a TD that was unneeded really), Baltimore (beat 29-10, easily), and Carolina last week in a game they had covered until a late field goal put the Panthers up 11. So, overall, they’ve actually played well as a big dog this year. The Dolphins have been a favorite in 3 games, they are 2-1 but 1-2 ATS. Last week they barely beat the Seahawks, they lost to Baltimore 4 weeks ago, and they beat Buffalo at home as a 1 point favorite 3 weeks ago. The Dolphins do play well against bad rushing defenses, though, upsetting the broncos by 9 in Denver and taking down the Chargers by a touchdown in Miami. Still, the Fins have won by 10 or more just once all season long, and while the Raiders are indeed bad, they have played better defense lately and haven’t played that bad on the road this season. I also don’t think the Dolphins should be a double digit point favorite against anyone in the league, besides maybe the Rams. I hate taking the Raiders, they have so many things going wrong that they are never a safe bet. After nearly losing last week, I think the Dolphins come out with a sense of urgency, and having the Raiders fly across the country to play them in the morning doesn’t hurt either – Oakland hasn’t been so hot crossing the midwest and they’ve lost 6 of their 9 games by 10 or more points. Take Miami. One more thing, Al Davis just took play calling away from the offensive coordinator – what a joke – who is he giving it to then? Wow.

Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts: When Houston can run, they’ll be alright. Sure, the Colts came back late in the game against the Steelers, and beat a very good PIttsburgh team on the road – they also got a couple gimmies and managed a 3 point win at home against the Patriots two weeks ago. That’s two wins in a row – and now everyone and their ESPN analyst wants to announce that the Colts are back. Please. They still look sloppy and not as confident as they’ve been. That worries me against a Texans team coming off a really bad game, a Texans team that is pretty decent and in big trouble. What does that mean? That means they’ll fight. The Texans do alright against teams that don’t stop the run really well. They barely lost to Jacksonville, they barely lost to Indy (by 3 and 4 points respectively), and their 4 other losses come against very good defensive fronts. The Colts will need to play very well to cover a 10 point spread against the Texans, and I don’t see that happening. They’ve played 2 good games all season long, last week against PIttsburgh and 5 weeks ago against Baltimore. 2 good games. That’s it. I’ll take the Texans and 10, thank you very much.

Chicago Bears (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: The Bears have won three straight games in Green Bay, and have taken 5 of the last 6 against the Packers. Interesting. All of those games were against Brett Favre and the Packers, though. Aaron Rodgers will be happy to get out of that Dome – not only was the pass rush from Minnesota causing him to run for his life, but it looked like the lights in that Dome were playing evil tricks on his perception as well. Green Bay has lost 5 of their last 7 games, including two home losses (24-27 to Atlanta; and 16-27 to the Cowboys). However, Green Bay has played well enough to win in all four of their most recent games, losing their last two contests by a total of 4 points. If they would have pulled their offensive coordinator’s head out of his own ace, they probably would have beaten the Vikings last week. However, they seemed happy with a 50+ yard field goal to win it. How happy are they now? Taking all things into account, I have to go with the Bears, despite the fact that I really liked the Packers coming into the season. Chicago may have 4 losses, but all 4 came to good teams, and 3 of those losses were by a field goal or less (Atlanta by 2, Tampa by 3, and Carolina by 3). Their only “big loss” came last week to Tennessee by 7, and it was closer than that. I see Chicago taking full advantage of the Packers weak run defense, and while I hope Green Bay gets to 5-5, I like the Bears and 5 points.

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5): This is an interesting one, because there are some conflicting numbers – but I’ll get to the bottom of it. Here goes what I see: The Chiefs have played good football lately. Say what you will about this 1-8 team, they’ve taking the Jets, Bucs, and Chargers to the limit over the past three weeks, and all of it has been done without the guy everyone said was their best player to start the year. They did get killed by Carolina and Tennessee just before that, but these New Orleans Saints are a lot less like the Titans and Panthers, and a lot more like the Denver Broncos. They aren’t that bad defensively, but they are a team that can’t really run the rock, depend solely on Drew Brees’ arm, and have a secondary that has the stamina and staying power of the first guy you fight on Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out. That said, whenever they’ve been dogs of 9 points or less, they’ve gotten hammered. Basically, they haven’t thrived when given a shot in hell to win the game. Then you have New Orleans, a team that has absolutely taken advantage of the leagues “not so elite” teams. They beat Oakland 34-3 and smoked San Francisco in a game they ended up winning by 14. I think KC would fit into that group of the “not so elite”. But Tyler Thigpen has been so good, the Saints have been bad, even worse on the road, and despite all the injuries and the losing, Herman Edwards has the Chiefs playing as good a football as they’ve played this year. They also have played pretty well against Pass-heavy teams this year. Ah, forget it, I’ll take the Chiefs in this one +5.5, but I bet if YOU wait long enough you can get 6.

Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ New York Giants: I’m all for taking the Giants, I’ve done my fair share of it and reaped the benefits this season. However, I see this game being within a touchdown, so I have to take the Ravens with that nice 7.5 line I got. Despite winning against Pittsburgh earlier in the season, the Giants didn’t play very well against that stellar defense. I think that the Ravens will be the second team to shut down the Giants rushing attack, and while Baltimore will have their fair share of trouble trying to score against New York, their running game will give them enough balance and short yardage conversions to keep this game close. Baltimore has played 1 bad game so far this year, a 31-3 drubbing at the hands of the Colts. Their other two losses were to Pittsburgh by an overtime field goal, and the Titans by a regulation field goal. Those last two teams are on the same level as the Giants, this game should be close as well.

Detroit Lions (+15) @ Carolina Panthers: An interesting match-up here. The Panthers have dominated as a big favorite this season, (which is rare for them), covering spreads of 10 (Oakland), 9.5 (Kansas City), and 7 (Atlanta). However, look at these tricky Lions for a second and you’ll see that in every game that they’ve been dogged by double digits, they’ve covered easily. What else? Everyone of those “big dog” ATS wins have come on the road. At Chicago they almost pulled one off and ended up losing by 4 (they were 12.5 point dogs), at Houston they were 11 point dogs and lost by a touchdown, and in Minnesota they were 13 point dogs and they lost by 2 and only because of a phantom pass interference penalty. I’ve said all year long that if the Panthers can run they they are one of the best teams in football. Conflicting stats? You bet. But I’m going to forget stats this week and just take the team that is winless thus far against a team that historically struggles at home as a big favorite. Plus, the Lions are getting 15 freaking points here – that’s a good thing if you’re betting the dog. Go Daunte, go!!!

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): Boy, the Vikings sure are tempting fate this year. four of their five wins have come by a touchdown or less and they’ve only lost one game by more than a touchdown (against Tennessee, weird). But away from Minnesota, the Vikes are just 1-3. Playing in Tampa Bay where the Bucs are 4-0, I have to say I like the home team. Tampa Bay’s defense may not be big, but they are playing very well against the run,  and have beaten every run-heavy team they’ve faced. (They did lose to Dallas without Tony Romo, but that game was so flukey and weird, I don’t know what to call it). Both teams are coming off of wins in which they didn’t play very well, but Tampa is coming off a bye. Minnesota should have lost to Green Bay last week, and you all know how I feel about teams that should have lost but won – bet against them in a hurry. I’m taking the Bucs.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have lost 8 games this year (1 win), and in 7 of those 8 losses, they’ve been outscored by a touchdown or more. The Eagles are really good, good enough to be a 3 point favorite against the Giants last week and play pretty well down the stretch. They’ve lost 4 games this year, all to pretty good teams. Washington, Chicago, Dallas, and last week New York (Giants). The Eagles have been favored by a touchdown or more 3 times, they are 3-0 in those games. The Eagles dominate teams that don’t have good run defenses – like, fore arguments sake, the Bengals. This is a HUGE spread for a 5-4 road team to cover, but I like my chances with Philly this week. What’s a bye week going to do for the Bengals besides make them realize how pathetic they really are? No longer winless, I don’t think they have a chance to do anything worthwhile against the Eagles.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): The Rams beat the Redskins and then the Cowboys (or the shell of the Cowboys without Tony Romo). That’s it. Over the last two games they’ve been absolutely embarrassed by the Cardinals and then the Jets. The 49ers also have 2 wins, but I like the way they played on Monday Night. Despite all the penalties and the turnovers, they fought until the last second and finished 2 yards shy of a huge upset. The Rams don’t pass well, and thus they won’t be able to take advantage of the Niners shaky secondary. I actually like San Francisco’s run defense enough to take them in a game where they are as big a favorite as they’ve been all season long. Go Samari Mike!

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck is back this week, or so the fortune teller says. Regardless, my magical bald brother Matt or not, I don’t think the Hawks match up well against the Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a game that should have snapped them back to reality, and they have a passing attack that should pay dividends, even against a solid Hawks secondary. Too much size for the little Hawk corners. The Cardinals have been favored in 5 games this season – they are undefeated in those contests. That’s just a stat, and honestly, it means nothing to me except it helps me argue my point. Which is this – to start the season I didn’t expect the Seahawks to win the West- I thought there was a Cardinal team that was better than them. That was when the Hawks were relatively healthy. Right now, they are still beat up, and while they have some players coming back, they still aren’t as good as the Cards. The Cardinals may be 2-3 on the road, but they’ve played well away from home. They lost to Carolina by just 4 points, and while they took 6 touchdowns from Brett Favre right on the chin, they played within a touchdown of a tough Redskin team in Washington. I know Seattle is historically solid at home in that rainy and unbelievably loud stadium, but throw history out the door and while you’re at it, look at how much better the Cards are than the Hawks. They’ll stuff the Hawks rushing attack and make plays against a stagnant Hawks offense. I’ll take the Cards – even with 70% of the public following me here.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: I would love to take the Jaguars here. The Titans can’t win them all, and despite the Titans defensive presence, they can be run on. But, that doesn’t mean the Jaguars can run on them. Jacksonville is still missing offensive linemen, and 4 wins against bad rushing defenses doesn’t a win against the Titans make… errr.. something like that. Basically, here it is. The Titans have struggled a little bit against legit passing attacks, Indy, Green Bay – they won, but they struggled. They also struggled against a couple very good run defenses in Chicago and Baltimore. THey won, but they struggled. The Jaguars happen to be nothing that the Titans struggle with. Jacksonville has a reputation of being a good run defense, but that’s just not true this season. Look for Tennessee to keep on winning this week in Jacksonville – that’s the only bet that makes sense.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4): I wrote a nice write-up about why I was taking the Chargers, and then I did a little bit more research and realized that San Diego’s defense isn’t good enough to upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost last week to Indy, but they played awesome defensively. They should be too much for the Chargers offense, especially against the run. I like Pittsburgh here. I’m trying real hard not to think too far into this one.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+2): The Redskins haven’t played well over their last 4 games. They are 2-2, but their wins come against Cleveland by 3 and Detroit by 8. They lost to St. Louis and then to PIttsburgh two weeks ago. They looked lost against the Steelers defense. Tony Romo comes back this week, and you can bet the Cowboys are ready to make a playoff push after struggling without their signal caller. I even like the Cowboys talent level. But I can’t even think about taking the Cowboys as a favorite in Washington. The Redskins have done enough to show me that they can pick apart a bad secondary, and there has to be some rust on Tony’s Cowboy machine. Look for the Redskins to come back with a huge win that should cripple the Boys in Week 11.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills: I like the Browns in this one. I think the Bills will have a hard time rushing against the Browns front line, and I think Brady Quinn gives the Browns enough accuracy to stay on the field that much longer. He didn’t look as great as everyone likes to say he did, last week against a bad Broncos defense, but he is accurate enough – and that’s huge for the Browns. This should be a close one, like most Brown and Bill games, so those 5.5 points should come in handy on Monday Night.

NCAA Football Free Picks REVIEW: Week 11

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Okay, I ended the week at .500 – that’s a push. Yahoo. That being realized, I’m not going into much detail with my review, feel free to write in and ask for more if that’s what you guys want, I didn’t think you’d mind. Here’s where I won and loss, fought and scratched, gave it my all to end even. Ugh.  

TCU Horned Frogs (-2) @ Utah Utes: (Loss) – Robbed. 

Nevada Wolfpacks (+2.5) @ Fresno State Bulldogs: (Winner)

Ohio State Buckeyes (-11.5) @ Northwestern Wildcats: (Winner) Easy one. 

Penn State Nittany Lions (-7.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes: (Loss) Field goals from 25 yards out won’t keep you undefeated. 

Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+24): (Loss) Is there any better team than Florida right now?

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5): (Winner) Right on the button here. 

North Texas Mean Green (+23) @ Florida Atlantic Owls: (Loss) The Mean Green were generous on Saturday. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Boston College (-3.5): (Winner) And the Fighting Irish have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Shutout in this one. 

Arizona State Sun Devils (-14) @ Washington Huskies: (Winner) Weird, the Huskies lost and didn’t cover. This game was closer than that for a while, but the Huskies dropped the ball – I never saw it coming. 

Arizona Wildcats (-38) @ Washington State Cougars: (loss) The Cougars Win!!! Only against the spread – but it was closer than the 31 point margin insists. I finally lost one at the hands of Washington. Don’t worry, I’m not giving up yet! Ha. 

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 10

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I only took 13 games because there was no line out for the Colts/Steelers game headed into the weekend. But, I still had 10 wins as a goal, and sure enough, I stomped the yard in Week 10, busting out double digit wins and losing just 3 contests. (One absolute robbery when the Broncos but up Black Jack in the 4th quarter on Thursday Night). Anyway, 10 wins folks, this is how the hammer hit nails.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3): I took 21 points on the chin in the 4th quarter, and the Browns were still driving to push the spread. I’m sorry folks, I’ll take this loss, but I will credit one hell of a bad beat on Thursday Night. I picked this one on the spot, and I would take the Browns -3 at home against the Broncos and win 80% of the time. This just happened to be one of those 20%. Pooey nuts.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions: (Winner) My analysis was on point again in this one – go back to my Free Picks article if you don’t believe me.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears: (Winner) The Titans struggled a bit in this one, and Rex Grossman (despite boos and bad press) played pretty well. However, it wasn’t enough, and watching this game I never was too worried. The Titans cover and still have zero losses this year.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-3.5): (Winner) “I know this isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots, and these aren’t J.P. Losman’s Bills, but New England hasn’t lost to Buffalo since 2003 – What was going on in 2003 last time Buffalo got a W against New England? Well, Tara Reid might have been considered good looking, Matt Ryan was playing high school football somewhere, and this great country was just about to give President George W. Bush one more run and complete destruction… That’s a while ago. If you do the math, carry the three, that’s 9 straight wins for the Pats. But Buffalo is better this year, no doubt bout that, so I’ll look for some more conclusive evidence one way or another. The Pats have one loss at home this year, to Miami in the day Ronnie Brown ruled the earth, but I’m not ever sold based solely on homefield business. I need some more. I pointed out last week that New England plays pretty well against teams that do one thing well (either pass or run), but the Bills seem to do both things with some success, so I have no push there. The Patriots should have won last week against the Colts, but a couple dropped passes (Gaffney’s for sure) and that ultimate dump penalty late (thank you Dave Thomas, now get back to pimping Wendy) gave the game to the Colts. I still think Matt Cassel is playing good enough football, and the Bills are coming back to reality a bit. Buffalo’s only “good” win came against a 3-5 San Diego team. That’s right, 5 wins, one of them at home against San Diego – the other four against St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. You sold on the Bills on the road against a Patriots team that just lost a game they should have won? Me neither. I’ll take the Pats.” This analysis was good enough to relive. I win again!!!

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: (Winner) I wasn’t too fond of this game, but it looks like I had the right idea. Baltimore ran well and stuffed the Texans rushing attack. Houston didn’t come to win this game, and win they did not.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+1): (Winner) I win again!!! This one went like I thought it would, but I expected a little more from the Saints defense. What a transformation in Atlanta, huh?

St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-8): (Winner) You bet. Rams can’t play ball when the run is stuffed. Consider it stuffed. Thomas Jones took advantage of one of the worst run defenses in the league. I win again!

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9): (Loss) The Hawks came to play, and Miami wasn’t in a hurry in this one. I lost, but it was one of few my kind hearted readers – one of few.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Winner) This game didn’t go like I expected, but Adrian Peterson did crush Green Bay’s front 7, and 8 for that matter – and got the Vikings a 1 point win. Aaron Rodgers was under pressure all night, and those two safeties really came back to hurt. But who do the Vikings really get to thank for this win? Try the man calling plays in Green Bay. With a 55 yard field goal in sight and about 1 minute and 10 seconds left on the clock, the Packers run 2 run plays that get about 3 yards – leaving a good kicker a 51 yard shot at the win. Do the Packers know that when a field goal gets over 48 yards the percentage of good kicks drops in half? Idiots. They had plenty of time to make the field goal easier, and Mason just pushes it. It was good from 48, I’m telling you. Anyway – hahaha – I win, you lose for being stupid.

Carolina Panthers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: (Winner) Despite trying as hard as he could to get the Raiders to cover, Jake Delhomme wasn’t allowed to play defense – thank God!!! The Panthers covered behind a couple nice runs by DeAngelo Williams and some good defense against a terrible offense.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “I have to take the Chiefs getting more than two touchdowns against a Charger team that has one win by more than 14 all season long. The Chiefs are bad, but they aren’t Oakland bad… Regardless of talent, these teams always play each other tough, it’s just the way it is. In fact, not one game in the last 10 meetings has the winner won by more than two touchdowns. Not once.” I must say, in a week where favorites did the dirty work, I had this one right on the nail folks.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (Winner) You bet – just about how I expected it to go, but the Eagles were better than I thought. Still, their inability to run the ball against good defenses might be the end of them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9): (Loss) Well, the 49ers were 2 yards away from ending my latest survivor pool run – luckily I pulled it out. Unluckily, so did all those people that took the Chargers. Regardless, this one was too close for me to cover, ending my Week 10 wins at 10 – Eleven Ws in Week 11 anyone?

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 10

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Week double digits is back – I’m old, I’m white, I’m wealthy – and I still voted Obama – ha! Beat ya…. Alright, alright, in the light of our recent election that had Obama stealing red states, and it being about as lopsided a victory as I’ve seen since Clinton’s second term – I thought I’d print one normal response and a couple of my one liners that I’ve been replying with, some sure thing answers for a sure thing week. gObama!

Darnell Harris from his iPhone writes, “Of these listed wideouts, what three do you recommend starting? Drew Brees is my QB, RB’s are Jacobs, M. Turner, and Chris Johnson. WR’s to choose from are Colston, Jennings, Curtis, Coles, Matt Jones, Mason, and Gage. Big game this week! Any advice is greatly appreciated…”

Thanks for writing in. It looks like you have a solid lineup this week. While Jacobs is going up against a very tough Eagles defense, they seem to have a little trouble against power rushing attacks, and Jacobs is every bit of that. Mike Turner has a nice match-up against the Saints. New Orleans has been better against the run this year, but after Matt Ryan had the best of the Saints last time out, you’d think they try to make life a little tougher for him, Turner is a solid bet. Chicago is solid against the run, no doubt, but Chris and the Titans can run on anyone, and I actually think the Titans run game does alright on Sunday. Drew – great option. Colston and Jennings are sure things to me, both have great secondary match-ups and both are amazing talents that I would start against anyone. I have to believe Colston is back to full health. Your real question here is a 3rd wideout, and I think it’s between Coles (@ St. Louis), Jones (@ Detroit), and Mason (@ Houston) – Gage is alright, but I’m not so sure I’d start him over these three. St. Louis ranks 28th in pass defense but is second worse in yards given up per attempt with 8.7 – so their secondary is BAD. Detroit is 29th, but they give up more yards per pass attempt than anyone in the league, and Houston is actually middle of the pack in the secondary, and I think they’ve been better since Dunta Robinson joined the group. Based on that, I’m eliminating Mason from the wash. Between Jones and Coles, I think Coles is the better player and while Thomas Jones is sure to get lots of action on Sunday, so are the Jaguar running backs agaisnt Detroit’s 31st ranked run defense. The Jags have really struggled late, and you’d have to think they run the ball as much as possible on Sunday. So I guess my final word is Coles. He’s consistent, he seems to be Brett’s favorite target, and on play action pass he should have a couple big plays this weekend. Good luck my man.

Insane Bolt writes, “Have you ever seen a more explosive running back than Chris Johnson?”

Yes – Barry Sanders, Gale Sayers, Walter Peyton, and Jim Brown – all four were more explosive in different ways – but I love me some Chris Johnson highlights, don’t get me wrong.

Chorizo Bill asks, “In a dynast league who would be your top 10 quarterbacks? I’m thinking the next 4-5 years… I’m not asking who is the best now, or the best value, or anything like that – I’m asking which guys you think will average the most fantasy points over the next 4 to 5…”

Pork Willy; fair enough. Here goes nothing… Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Jason Campbell – that’s 13 but I do what I want… This year I think this is my list for end of season… Brees, Cutler, Warner, McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre, Jake Delhomme, Brett Favre, and Chad Pennington…. 11, I know.

Huey LOUIS from Kuai says, “My favorite player to watch these days is Marion Barber – he may not be the fastest but that guys goes all out – who’s your favorite player of all time?

Mike Singletary, pants down and all. That guy was a perfect player.
Too Tall Tim asks, “My kid is a big tall skinny kid, and I’m trying to get him to play football as well as hoops – he just wants to play pretty hoop ball. He says there’s nobody tall that has ever been good (and we’re talking position players here) – is there anybody in the 6’6 range that isn’t a lineman and is an example I could use?
Jason Campbell, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger – all 6’5 – and Joe Flacco is 6’6 – non lineman, non quarterback tall guys? Brandon Jacobs is 6’4 270, but I hardly believe he’s human… Brandon Marshall is 6’4, Matt Jones is 6’6 and he’s not having a bad year, hard to use a guy with coke habits as an example though – Calvin Johnson is 6’5 but like Jacobs he’s a freak of nature… Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, usually pass catching TE’s like those guys are legit examples. All linemen are tall, naturally.
Torrance asks, “If you could start your NFL football team with 5 players, who would they be?”
Mario Williams, Justin Tuck, Albert Haynesworth, Joe Thomas, DeMarcus Ware… I don’t know how I’d play those 4 linemen (and OLB Ware) together, but those four absolute beasts on defense would get me where I wanted to go, and Joe Thomas is a very young and solid cornerstone and offensive tackle. I’ll get skill players later, I almost took Nnamdi Asomugha over Ware but DeMarcus is basically the only guy offenses worry about when they play Dallas and he still ruins everything.
Jameson from Kentucky writes, “Why doesn’t the spread offense work in the NFL?”
Because offense aren’t faster than defenses in the NFL.