Monthly Archives: November 2008

NFL Free Picks: Week 12

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After 9 wins in Week 9 and 10 in Week 10, I took a step back down the free pick staircase with an 8 win mark in Week 11 – still, 8 wins guarantees me at least a push, and that’s exactly what I got. I’m looking forward to not tying this week’s action – because as even Donovan McNabb knows, there’s no such thing as overtime in the gambling world, just a big fat sack of vig headed to the Casino. Ugh. On we go, Here’s Week 12! 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10): The Bengals have played two pretty well played games in a row – that’s probably their limit. On the other hand, Pittsburgh only has 3 wins by 10 or more points. Washington, Cincinnati, and Houston in week 1. The Bengals have lost just 4 games by 10 or more points – not too shabby when you consider how bad their defense is supposed to be and how injuries have crushed their collective souls. This is a Thursday Night game, and as advertised, anything can happen on National TV. That being said, I think Pittsburgh is getting healthier by the week and the short preparation will probably help their cause. This could be a weird one, but I’m looking at the Steelers here. 

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5): I wonder when the TItans will start getting the respect they deserve. I know Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been great against the run lately, and New York’s run D has been stellar, but I have a hard time believing the Jets offense putting up enough points to beat the Titans. I think Tennessee by a touchdown is right on the money. I’ll take the Titans. The Titans are a team that capitalizes on mistakes and the Jets are a team that makes them. This pick makes too much sense so it should make dollars. 

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins: I don’t see the Dolphins sweeping the Patriots – call me crazy. After Miami did anything and everything they wanted to do against the Patriots back in Week 3 don’t you think Bill Belichick and his Pats will have a little more invested in this game? I know the Fins need wins too, but the Patriots are the better team – they should win this one in Miami. 

Chicago Bears (-7.5) @ St. Louis Rams: The Rams tackle as bad as the Browns and are offensively more pathetic than the Raiders… Even when the Rams score, it’s because of a gross deep bomb to Donnie Avery. The Bears need this win – they are in a division where every W counts and every loss gets them closer to the Lions. I expect Chicago to put this game in Matt Forte’s hands. For a rookie, his hands are pretty safe. 

Houston Texans (+3) @ Cleveland Browns: I have this eerie feeling that Sage Rosenfels throws for about 350 yards and the Texans destroy the Browns. I don’t know what drives me to that type of thinking, but it has something to do with watching the Browns suck on Monday Night and still get the win. They should have lost that game. What does that tell us? Well, I always bet against teams that played like losers and still won. It’s bound to catch up with them. The Texans can run and throw and they actually tackle people. 

San Francisco 49ers (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys: Don’t look too far into it, but the 49ers have actually played some good teams tough over the last 6 weeks. You can tell me all about their game against Seattle, but remember, they still had more yards than the Hawks, and if it wasn’t for two fluke full back 50 yard touchdown catches, the game would have been a lot closer. The Niners lost to New England by 9, Philly by 14 (but the game was much tighter than that), the Giants by 12, the Cardinals by 5 two weeks ago (and it was two yards from a win), and they killed the terrible Rams last week. The Cowboys still haven’t proven to me that they have their lives together, and the underdog looks good here. I’ll take the Niners. 

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs: I like the Bills to fight back in this one. They’ve really struggled, but they still should have won on Monday Night Football. Trent Edwards will get his life together this week and even if he doesn’t, I still like the Bills to run hard and often against the Chiefs defensive front. I like the tandem of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson – that duo should do just good enough to take down the Chiefs by a little more than a field goal. It should be a well fought game, but I like the Bills to end their recent woes. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Detroit Lions: The Lions play brutal football at home, and they way they play defense seems like a perfect scheme against Daunte Culpepper. They just wait back for the offense to make a mistake. No big plays, no deep passes, just trouble for inaccurate quarterbacks that haven’t played football in a year. The Bucs don’t kill teams, but they do shut down mediocre running games and they are a team built on taking advantage of mistakes. I like the Bucs to win by a couple touchdowns in Detroit. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: There’s a lot about Baltimore I like here. Their toughness. The fact that they played their worst game of the year last week. Lots of things. But the Eagles play their best football against the best defenses. They did work on the Giants, beat the Steelers 15-6, and but up 37 on a Dallas team that was playing well early. I’ll take the Eagles to win this game outright. 

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: When teams force the Jaguars to throw, the Jaguars don’t win. Minnesota doesn’t have to do anything different than they do every week, and they’ll still force the Jags to throw.  Adrian Peterson should have a humungous week against the Jaguars. That defensive front just isn’t confident enough to stop that young man. Look for Gus Frerotte to throw a limited but effective number of passes. I actually expect this game to be Minnesota’s biggest point differential victory of the season. 

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: This is the part of the year where young teams that have become great stories take a step backwards. I don’t know if that will be the case with the Falcons, but I do know what I think about the Panthers makes them the only play in Atlanta this week. I’ll say it again, if the Panthers can run the ball, they are one of the toughest outs in football. They can run against Atlanta, and their defense has enough playmakers to make like a little tougher on Mike Turner and Matt Ryan. A sweep of the Falcons will put Carolina in a great spot headed into the final 5 weeks. 

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-9): Everyone seems to beat up on the Raiders, but especially prolific passing teams. The Broncos iced the Raiders 41-14 to start the season off, and the Saints beat Oakland by 31 a few weeks later. The Raiders almost had Miami last week, but that seems like more Miami than Oakland. I don’t like taking the Broncos as a big favorite, because, well, they aren’t very good – but there are some key injuries that should really hurt the Raiders, and the Broncos are playing smarter of late. They’ll run on Oakland, and Jay should have wide open lanes through the air. 31-13 is my guess. 

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Washington definitely hasn’t played well of late, back to back losses to Pittsburgh and then Dallas, and before that it was a loss to St. Louis and two very close games against the Browns (won by 3) and Lions (won by 8). That being said, it’s not like the Seahawks have been the team to beat out west. Going from Washington DC to Washington for a late game isn’t nearly as tough as Seattle to DC for an early game, so that trip doesn’t bother me too much here. I think Jim Zorn has something to prove heading into Seattle, and he had to learn a lot from “playing not to lose” last week against the Cowboys. I like Clinton Portis to have a nice game, but even more, I expect Jason Campbell to go back to his mistake free football as the Seahawks lose another. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: I love the Cardinals, and I think their passing game will give the Giants enough trouble to keep this game close, but I have to bet on the Giants. They’ve beaten me enough, and proven to me to be one of the elite teams in the NFL. I know the Cardinals are undefeated at home, but they are coming off of two very mediocre weeks where they’ve gotten in the habit of not capitalizing on their opportunities. That won’t fly against the Giants, even in Arizona. The Cardinals are 7-3, but they really haven’t beaten one of the NFL’s best teams.  I’d say Carolina, the Jets, and Redskins are the three best teams Arizona has faced; and they’ve lost all three. Arizona will put up a fight, and you can bet on Kurt wanting to prove to the Giants that he can indeed play, and he’s one of the best QBs in the league. He will, but that won’t keep Eli and the Giants out of the win column. 

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5): 6-4 vs. 4-6 and I could swear that San Diego is the better team. Crazy. Indy still isn’t impressing me, and until I get a sure thing that Bob Sanders is coming back and in full health, I’m not taking them on the road at San Diego. The Chargers played a pretty good defensive game against the Steelers, and they have always had luck against Peyton Manning. The Chargers play their best against opponents that test them, and you know they’ll be ready for a bout with the Colts, especially sitting two games back of the Broncos and a loss away from basically being out of the playoffs. 72% of the public is wrong about this game – the Chargers are the only play worth making. 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: The Packers play well against teams that rely heavily on the pass, and that’s probably because their run defense isn’t that good. Aaron Rodgers played terribly the last time Green Bay went into the dome, but he’s a very good quarterback and will get more and more used to games indoors. The Saints haven’t really played good football since their 34-3 win over the Raiders. They have a couple wins, but none of them have impressed me. I think the Packers are far and away the better team and that’s enough for me to make a small play on Green Bay.

10 for Tuesday

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What’s up folks – hopefully you didn’t have as bad a fantasy week as I had. If it wasn’t the refs getting me down, it was the Cleveland Browns ability to properly tackle anyone. How they won that game is beyond me. All being said, I’m still basically a lock for the playoffs in most leagues I’m in, so now (in Week 12) I’m looking for great playoff match-ups with relatively unowned players, and some guys you might be able to snipe from your opponents in the last week before the trade deadline (if yours hasn’t passed yet). Here’s a few that strike my fancy. 

Ahmad Bradshaw: Not only do I think he’s probably the best all around back in New York (though obviously the Giants don’t think so, and that’s what matters), but Bradshaw looks to get a lot more carries going down the stretch. If the NFC keeps playing like they’re playing, and the Giants keep playing like they’re playing, some rest for their main horses will be in the cards for people like Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress. Bradshaw may play tough defenses, but the Giants have shown that they can run on anyone. If Bradshaw gets 12-18 carries he’s a nice starting option down the stretch. 

Dominic Hixon: I feel the same way about Hixon that I do about Bradshaw. Super talented kid that, when he gets chances, does work. His secondary schedule is a little better than Bradshaw’s run defense schedule, and you know Plax will be the first Giant to get some time off. 

Peyton Manning: Everyone knows Peyton, but unlike previous seasons, these Colts are going to have to try to win until the end, and that’s great for Manning and his easy breazy schedule down the stretch. If you can get him, for the first time in a long time, he might be my favorite signal caller to own down the stretch. 

Larry Johnson: Interesting play here, but his Week 13, 14, and 15 schedule looks like this… Oakland (YAY!), Denver (AWESOME!), and San Diego (CHEER-E-O). Larry got lots of carries in his first game back, and there’s no reason to think that Herm goes away from him down the stretch. 

Pierre Thomas: The kid is a shot in the dark, because of Reggie Bush, Deuce and such – but he’s the best actual running back in New Orleans, and the Saints play the Falcons in Week 14 and the Lions in Week 16- and there’s a chance he could be the guy getting those looks toward the end of the season. Historically the kid is solid when he gets touches. 

Joey Galloway: Joey was held without a catch last week and hasn’t scored more than 5 fantasy points this year, not more than 3 since opening day – but you look at the Bucs schedule going forward and you have to see a shot at some light from the 37 year old receiver. Vikings, Lions, Saints, Panthers (tough match-up), Falcons, Chargers, Raiders… It seems like the tough part of the Bucs schedule is over, Galloway could be a nice pick-up if you need help at receiver. 

Warrick Dunn: Caddy Williams is getting some love and I hope the kid comes back and does good work for TB, but you have to be real, and WD40 is going to be the guy getting the load of the carries. You saw Joey’s Buc schedule above – Warrick’s is the same – a good pick up down the stretch. 

Brandon Jones: Justin Gage will be the cat added to everyone’s team this week, and that’s fine, but Jones is a nice option too, especially with the Jets coming up next week (Tennessee will probably have to throw on them) and then the Lions, Browns, and Texans immediately following. Kerry can throw the ball alright, and lately this team has been more balanced. 

Jerry Porter: If you feel like shooting at a small hoop, very far away, in the dark – Jerry might be your guy. The talent is there, he might steal a starting spot with Matt Jones looking to miss some games, and nobody else in Jacksonville has separated themselves from the rest of the receiving pack. Vikings this week, then the Texans, then the Bears and Packers – not great secondaries, he might be worth a shot. 

Gus Frerotte: Ugh, I know. But the Jags, Lions, and Cardinals all come to town in 3 of the next four weeks. Gus has his best games at home, and none of those secondaries scare me much. I’m sure the Vikings will be tied to Adrian Peterson, but some hook ups between Gus and Berrian are in the cards.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 11

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Well donkey balls – so much for 11 in Week 11 – but I didn’t lose 11 either, so my strong season didn’t take too big of a hit. Interested in seeing if I was helped or screwed by the idiot official that made up a rule so that the Steelers wouldn’t cover the spread? With the way I worded it, I bet you can guess – that joke call pushed me on the week – Eight wins, eight losses, but as it turns out I should have been 9-7… This is how my weekend went. 

New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) Well I was right about the outcome but wrong about the way it would happen. So much for a low scoring affair, these Thursday Night games really don’t see a lot of defense played – but Kris Jenkins did do work against the Pats run game and basically shut it completely down. Hence Cassel throwing for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anyway, the Jets win in overtime and I win outright. 

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5): (LOSS) And the streak of losses begin to roll on. The Falcons didn’t really dominate on the ground, as the Broncos are really picking it up with their back-ups in there. Denver played pretty good football and Jay Cutler walked the ball down and threw a lazer for the win. Roddy White dropped a game tying touchdown pass, but it wouldn’t have covered for me anyway. The Falcons lose their first game at home, and I lose too. 

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10): (LOSS) Interesting. This game proves that anything can happen in football, and from week to week, anything will. That’s all I have to say about this loss. 

Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “When Houston can run, they’ll be alright.” Admit it, this game was a lot closer than most of you thought, and that 6 point Colts win got me a win with the Texan side of this game. Houston ran all over Indy, as Steve Slaton had a huge rushing day and Ahman Green found himself in the end zone twice – probably by accident, but still. This is a game I really needed. 

Chicago Bears (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSS) The outcome of this game really surprised me. The Packers killed the Bears – but I’m not willing to say that the Pack is better than Chicago – just one of those games I think. Tough week for me and THOSE games. 

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5): (LOSS) The Chiefs actually played pretty well and had a nice chance to win this game. 4-5 dropped passes killed a normally sure handed KC team and some questionable play calling put them in a bit of a bind. They ended up losing by 10, which wasn’t enough to make me a winner, but I think the Chiefs are a solid betting group moving forward. 

Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ New York Giants: (LOSS)  The Giants are very good. The Ravens had played close with everyone, been in every game, and done very well against the run. The Giants basically made them look foolish, they won by 20, and this game wasn’t that close – did I mention that the 3 Giant runners did just about everything they wanted to do? Well they did – and Brandon Jacobs took his 11 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns – that guy is a man. I lost again. 

Detroit Lions (+15) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) Detroit played even better than the final score indicated, and besides the fact that they are Detroit and anything can happen, I was never worried about this cover. How bad has Jake Delhomme been lately? Luckily for him, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both plowed past 100 yards with ease. It was a dominate ground attack by Carolina, but not enough to cover against my pick here. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): (WINNER) The Bucs won in an ugly game. Jeff Garcia was legit, probably as accurate as he’s been all year, and the Bucs did just enough to oust the Vikings and cover for me here.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) Damn the Eagles! Damn ties! Damn Philly basically making every game a must win situation because they couldn’t take care of business against the 1-8 (now 1-8-1) Bengals. Gross game. 

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): (WINNER) A round of applause for my man Mike Singletary. If you don’t think this guy will get his players to win, you are going to be tricked. 

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) The Cards tried to lose this one, but Kurt and Anquan and Larry Fitz were just too beastly for the Cardinals. A 26-20 win wasn’t pretty, but it was enough for the public to reap the benefits here. 

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) The Titans made it close for most of the game, but Kerry Collins looked like he had enough of 8 and 9 in the box, so he tossed more than a couple passes to Justin Gage, and the undervalued wide receiver made the most of it. The Titans won by 10 in Jacksonville – and the public rejoiced! 

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4): (LOSS 0- Kind Of) Not that Steeler bettors deserved to win this game, but they should have. Some sorry excuse for a ref took a correct call and turned it around when it didn’t matter to anybody but people trying to cover spreads, and millions of dollars went to the books – what a joke. If you saw this game, you know what I’m talking about. If you didn’t see this game, you will certainly here about an error that cost bettors millions of dollars. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+2): (LOSS) This game was gross. Had to stop watching it at half time and go shoot hoops with the townies. But Dallas pulled it out, despite poor performances by everyone this side of Marion Barber. (MBIII is a BEAST). The Redskins tried hard not to lose and it definitely showed in their selective play calling and lack of chances down field. This is a Dallas secondary that plays very well close to the line of scrimmage and very poorly down field. Come on Jim Zorn! 

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills: I like the Browns in this one. I think the Bills will have a hard time rushing against the Browns front line, and I think Brady Quinn gives the Browns enough accuracy to stay on the field that much longer. He didn’t look as great as everyone likes to say he did, last week against a bad Broncos defense, but he is accurate enough – and that’s huge for the Browns. This should be a close one, like most Brown and Bill games, so those 5.5 points should come in handy on Monday Night.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 12

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Here’s a couple people that gave thanks on Monday morning….

Red-Red Ryan wrote, “The picture of me as Bo Jackson is hilarious by the way, but it didn’t help me from getting beat by 40 points in one of my leagues, but I was money in the other two and I needed them bad. So Thanks big guy, thanks a lot. Red knows Red!”

Nice.

Alice writes, “Well I would have started Addai and Slaton (kind of worried about Dallas’s offense) without you, so your change to Slaton and Barber actually lost me 4 fantasy points – though all three had very good days. I also would have started Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, and Brandon Marshall – so your trade of Jericho for Calvin actually lost me a single point. However, I did win anyway as all my guys had big days (except Andre Johnson). I don’t owe you a date or any hot scandalous pictures or anything – but you’re still alright with me. I’ll have more for you later in the week.”

Good deal. In a non-PPR league I think I would have helped you out. I’m glad you won anyway. I still love you.

Johnny 6 thanks me, “Thank you, I won by 5, DeAngelo has a much better day than AP, and the unprecidented move of AP to the bench made me a happy camper.”

You bet. Me too.

And now for the questions for Week 12…

Julian not Peterson writes, “I’m a Hawks fan, and a huskies fan for that matter, so you can see that my season is basically in shambles – but a 26-20 loss to the Cards has me hoping for us to play great football and lose the rest of the way. I am in the playoffs in my fantasy league and have a chance to pick up either Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, or Donnie Avery – the Hawks should be throwing a lot, which way would you go? Also, if the Hawks continue to lose out, and get a top 5 pick, who are the best 5 guys us Seattle hopeful can be looking to draft?”

Alright, lets break it down like this. Julian Peterson, by the way, is my favorite Seahawk. Definitely a tough year to root for Washington in any form, but being a Husky fan at least you can be happy to see the Cougars getting kicked around. Not all is lost. As for the receiver pick up, I’d go with Branch. He’s the best receiver of the bunch, and he was at least decently productive against the Cardinals. Their schedule isn’t too tough against the pass, but neither is the Rams schedule. Still, I would be more comfortable going with Branch against the Cowboys, Patriots, and Rams in the fantasy playoffs – neither is great in the secondary.

As for your next question, I would say these are the Top 5 guys in the draft, and Seattle should have a chance at one of them…  Michael Oher (OT-TEX), Andre Smith (OT-Alabama), Michael Crabtree (WR-TTech), Eugene Monroe (OT-Virginia), and Michael Johnson (DE-GTech) – those are the goods in my opinion, and they could use any of them – especially a stud on the O-line.

The Guy says, “I hear lots of good things about next years’ skill draft; Knowshon Moreno, Crabtree, Maclin, Beanie Wells, Percy Harvin, C.J. Spiller, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and the QB’s (Bradford, Stafford, Harrell) – and I’ll be looking for those guys during my league’s dynasty rookie draft, but who is your favorite guy rolling under the radar? I know you liked Chris Johnson and Matt Forte a lot – and both look very good, so I trust your opinion. Your top 5 I didn’t list???”

You bet bub, but I must warn you, I also thought Rashard Mendenhall was the best of the bunch. But you’re right, I tend to do alright with my draft pick knowledge – and Mendenhall might be good, we just won’t know for a while. This is how I’d list my Top 5 that you didn’t.

1. LeSean McCoy – Denver, please draft this kid and make me a visionary!

2.  Chase Coffman – I think he’ll have a more immediate impact than Dustin Keller – he’s got great mitts.

3. Kenny Britt – I’m not sure what his speed is, and that should be something you look at, but he’s a big physical kid that can dominate the top corners he plays in college. He’s on a bad offensive team this year, so he might be next season’s Eddie Royal – a steal in the 2nd or 3rd round.

4. Derrick Williams – If you’ve seen the Nittany Lions lately, there’s no doubt who they think their best player is – Williams may seem small but his size isn’t bad and he has great athleticism and timing.

5. Javon Ringer and Brandon Gibson (WR from WSU): You know the first guy, and he won’t be given much love but I see him a lot like I saw Ray Rice – a complete runner that does everything well enough to play at the next level. He’ll be a later selection but could play right away. Brandon Gibson won’t be well known but he has all the ability. He’s at a terrible school that can’t do anything offensively – and that’s no place for a great receiver. Look for him to impress at the next level.

theRUNDOWN: Week 12

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play for hopes of a better options – here goes Week 12’s action… Two big weeks in a row has me aiming for 200 – as impossible as that seems.

QB: Peyton Manning vs. San Diego: There’s a chance that Manning just hands the ball off to Joseph Addai a lot, and doesn’t get the full fantasy point production I’m hoping for. However, he is going up against a great secondary to throw on (hell, Big Ben and the Steelers went over 300 in snow last week), and knowing Peyton, he’ll take full advantage of the air attack.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Jacksonville: This years’ Jaguars don’t strike me as a team with a chance to stop AP. I think the Vikings jump on Peterson’s back and hope to God that doesn’t injure his knees. I’ll strap my hopes to AP as well.

RB: Matt Forte vs. St.Louis: Not only is Matt a nice play against just about every defense the league has to offer, but the Rams are one of the worst run defenses in the last 10 years. He should continue his run for rookie of the year.

FLEX: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Indianapolis: This hasn’t been a good year for LT, but he looked pretty darn good against the Steelers on Sunday, and that can only mean good things for his chances for a big day against the Colts.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. San Diego: And I continue to put my eggs in the Colts passing basket this week. Lets hope I don’t have to catch it out of the fan like Cutler and Marshall, Rodgers and Jennings – you get me?

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cleveland: Andre hasn’t beasted anybody lately, that can only mean it’s coming. Unfortunately for the Browns, they draw AJ in Week 12.

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Houston: This guy is the best receiver in Cleveland – that’s right Braylon Edwards, KWII is the best receiver on your team. He’ll have a good day against the Texans.

K: Robbie Gould vs. St. Louis: Seems like a no-brainer. The Bears don’t have a dominant touchdown scoring team but any team with half an attack can get in field goal range in St. Louis. The game is indoors so there’s no weather problems. Go for the gold Gould… Ha, Gold-Gould – awesome.

D: Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis: No need to explain this one, just go for it and celebrate!

PAPA’S Week 12 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: At home against Buffalo? You bet! Until you guys start picking up my man Tyler – he’s going to be a sleeper and he’s going to be a starter for me.

Kyle Orton: He struggled last week, and the Bears are bound to run more than pass – but I think Kyle does enough good this week to get him into the Top 10 – he’s available in leagues, kind of weird.

Warrick Dunn: WD40 will get the most carries against a terrible Lions defensive front. That’s worth a start.

Pierre Thomas: Against Green Bay? Sure, the Packers were better against the run last week, but they’ll have to show me one more time or I’ll keep starting sleepers against that d-front. Thomas is still the best pure running back in New Orleans – lets hope their head coach realizes that.

Antonio Bryant: PPR guy against the Lions – the Bucs shouldn’t have to throw that much, but Bryant isn’t a bad option in a pinch.

Mark Bradley: I still like this kid despite a mediocre week against the Saints – he’s fast and can get up and get it. Thigpen is legit and likes to throw Mark’s way.

James Jones: An absolute stab in the dark, i know, but I like the match-up and I’ve always liked Jones – his best game of the season coming right up.

Zach Miller: A Raider? I must be sick. But I don’t think there’s a better pass catcher in Oakland against Denver’s safeties. He’s a nice sleeper.

Denver Broncos: One of the worst defenses in all of football – so they are the ultimate sleeper. If you’re a “pick a new D every week” guy – this option is right up your alley.

Papa’S Week 12 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Trent Edwards: He may be going up against the Chiefs, but I don’t like him this week – the Chiefs are better than advertised and Edwards regardless of him Monday Night tilt, I don’t want to start him in Week 12.

Timothy Hightower: If you didn’t at first, you are now starting to understand why I was so hesitant to anoint Tim as the next great rookie back after his solid game against the Rams. He hasn’t done much the last couple weeks, and this week against the Giants will be no different.

Maurice Jones Drew: There is no doubt, this kid is a stud and a touchdown machine – but the Jaguars hate giving him the ball, and against the Vikings I don’t think his 12 touches will be enough to make him fantasy worthy.

Santonio Holmes: I didn’t think he’d blow up this season, and I haven’t been that impressed – the Steelers will run 2-1 on Thursday, and that won’t leave many opportunities for Santonio.

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 11

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Last week I had one of my best rundown’s of the season – how’d this weekend go? It was a tough week to be one of my sleepers, but my starting lineup basically did work. Here’s the final tally… 152… Check it out!

QB: Jay Cutler vs. Atlanta: Well I was wrong about Jay and it definitely helped me out. A late touchdown gave me just enough fantasy points for Jay’s selection not to be a complete waste, but not enough for Jay to beat me in the leagues I played him in this week. 14 for Cutler.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: The Packers played inspired defense against the run, and dominated the Bears on Sunday – still, Forte got 16 fantasy points, a PPR league dream, 60 yards on the ground, but 6 catches for 40 yards through the air.

RB: Frank Gore vs. St. Louis: Gore finished 6th amongst running backs, and hardly played in the second half – getting rest after gashing the Rams early. 106 rushing, 2 TDs, 2 grabs for just 8 yards, and a fumble. Frank finished with 22 fantasy points.

FLEX: DeAngelo Williams vs. Detroit: DeAngelo was outgained by his backfield buddy, Jon Stewart, but Williams got 2 touchdowns to Stewart’s 1 and Williams still rushed for 120 yards on Sunday. He was #3 amongst running backs with 24 fantasy points.

WR: Anquan Boldin vs. Seattle: Boldin did work in Seattle. He didn’t catch a touchdown, but there’s something special about 13 catches for 186 yards – 31 fantasy points made him the #2 receiver in Week 11.

WR: Roddy White vs. Denver: Roddy had 5 grabs for 102 yards, but it was his 50 yard touchdown drop on 3rd and long with the game winding down that I remember most – tough day to be a Falcon. 15 for White.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. New Orleans: 8 for Tony, he grabbed 5 balls on way to 39 yards – the old man is as solid as they get.

K: Jason Elam vs. Denver: 2 field goals and 2 extra points – one was 49 yards – so I got 9 from Elam, not so shabby. Maybe I’m kicking this kicker problem I’ve been having for a couple years.

D: Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit: 13 points for the Panthers – they gave up more than I hoped for, but 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, and 2 fumbles made for a solid day fantasy wise.

PAPA’S Week 11 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Tyler Thigpen was tied for 3rd in QB rankings this week. Yes folks, he’s still good. A+

Matt Ryan: Matt had 9 fantasy points this week, not a good week for him or the Falcons. I take this one on the chin. D

Ricky Williams: Ricky had 49 yards on the ground, and two grabs for 6 yards – he shoots and he misses. D

Jerious Norwood: I started Norwood over Ryan Grant, now I’m praying for a win tonight. Great. D

Brandon Jones: He was on your free agent list, if you picked him up you got a little bit of yardage but a nice touchdown to make him worth your while. B

Mark Bradley: 3 catches for 57 yards – a huge dropped pass that sent KC home with a 10 point loss. Great. D

Deion Branch: 4 catches for 54 yards, but I’m willing to bet that his addition gets better and better, and you might have found a nice playoff player for nothing. C

Billy Miller: Not much for Shockey on Sunday, but even less for Billy, try no catches in the Saints win. F

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs had a very nice day, they held AP in check pretty much and ended giving up just 10 points in a big win for the Bucs. B

Papa’S Week 11 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

David Garrard: I helped you guys here for sure – DG was 28th amongst QBs – not many leagues where that is worth a start.

Willis McGahee: 9 rushes for 18 yards – and you are welcome.

Brandon Jacobs: Jacobs continues to do work. The battering ram did 73 yards of damage against the Ravens in Week 11, and that was on just 11 carries – he also took two of those totes for TDs – I hope you ignored me here, Jacobs was a Top 15 guy in PPR leagues, and ranked even higher in non-ppr formats.

TJ Houshmanzadeh: TJ went gonzo this week, so I apologize. 12 catches, 149 yards, huge game for a very good player. My bad. He also finished the #1 PPR receiver in Week 11. Ouch. Slap in the face.

NCAA Football Free Picks: Week 13

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After a huge week I’m back for one more shot at going deeper into the green – these are the games that have me going for gold in Week 13 of the college season. I’ve put together 8 games and there’s even a showdown amongst by two biggest money makers, the Washington schools (betting against of course). Here goes something…

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Northwestern Wildcats (+2.5): I wasn’t at all impressed with the Illini last week. They should have gotten beat by 20 – and they just don’t have much fight in them. Juice Williams got a hook late in that game, and I’m interested to see how that will effect that young quarterback. I’m not enamored with Northwestern, but a dog at home against this Illinois team seems like a bet too good to pass up.

Florida State Seminoles @ Maryland Terrapins (-1): I guess this pick is for the same exact reasoning as last week. FSU isn’t that great, Maryland is very equal to them at least, and the Terps are playing at home where they are probably the toughest out in the ACC – a 1 point favorite is basically a pick-em, so I have to like the Terps here.

BYU Cougars @ Utah Utes (-6.5): BYU hasn’t played well on the road this year, whether than was a 1 point win at Washington, a 3 point win at Colorado State, or a 14 point win at Airforce, even a 25 point loss at TCU for that matter – they just haven’t been at their best on the road. I know this game is huge for the Utes, and the Cougars really have nothing to lose, but Utah is just the better team. They’ve been better from the get go, and despite everyone’s expectations that BYU would be the undefeated team in this division at years’ end, the Utes are the team to beat. Brian Johnson may not have Max Hall’s numbers, but he does just as much for his team. The Utes have had their close wins, no doubt about that, but the better team should win by at least a touchdown on Saturday – and the better team is Utah.

Tennessee Vols @ Vanderbilt Commodores (-3): I think Vanderbilt’s big win last week, a win that assures them bowl eligibility, will be huge for their confidence going into this week’s tilt with Tennessee. They have that weight off their shoulders now, and I can only imagine they play better because of it. If that’s not enough, the Vols are absolutely brutal -that should do the trick.

Washington (-7.5) @ Washington State: What does a guy like me do in this situation? If you’ve read my picks more than once, you are well aware of my “Bet against Washington Sports” motto, and these two teams are the root of that motto. But there has to be value here, right? Sure, I think so – and I would feel so wrong, after all the money these two teams have made me, just letting this game fall to the wind. Alright, the Huskies should win this game. Believe it or not, they are the better squad. They are bad, just not as bad as the Cougars. The problem is, UW has to win by more than a touchdown to take this game. That’s a lot to ask from a team that hasn’t won yet this year. However, I’m taking the dogs. Winless doesn’t seem like a possibility, especially when it means losing to a terrible rival. I’m taking the Dogs in this one.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6) @ Oklahoma Sooners: It may not be the best bet because Oklahoma is dirty at home, and Tech is trying for the undefeated regular season here, and OK is really freaking good – but how can you not like Tech as a 6 point dog? Here it is folks, I would take Tech as a 6 point dog in the depths of hell against the Devils and all his demons. This isn’t a flukey gimmicky Tech team that relies solely on their crazy offense – they are good at everything. Realize that this one goes against my belief that you should always take a lower rated team favored against a higher rated team. Yep. This is the exception to the rule.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-6) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: Too much of a run game from the Hawkeyes, and too much of a run defense as well. I see Iowa running away with this one.

Mississippi @ LSU (-5): This may be the last time in history that you’ll be able to get LSU at home anywhere close to good value. LSU has struggled this year, never was that more apparent than last week against Troy State – but they showed what they can do in a 4th quarter that got them a victory, and that 4th quarter is enough for me to take them here at home against Miss.

NCAA Football Free Picks REVIEW: Week 12

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Nice week me… 14-5 is something to smile at – and Saturday had plenty of smiles. 

Rutgers (+8) @ South Florida: (win) I’m starting to figure the Big East out I think – whatever the consensus is, go the other way. I liked me some Rutgers in this one, and for good reason, they walked into South Florida and won outright. And talk about a beating, without any scoring in the 1st quarter, the Scarlet Knights put up 49 points on the Bulls. That’s big time. It was a sign of things to come, that’s for sure. 

Duke (+11.5) @ Clemson: (loss) Okay, I lost this one, and Duke was greatly outplayed – but their best player and team leader, quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, went down in the 2nd series of the game and Duke didn’t have a shot. In that case, neither did I. Clemson won 31-7, and I take one on the chin. 

Georgia (-8.5) @ Auburn: (loss) I should have listened to myself on this one. I knew it wasn’t a gimmie game, and I knew Georgia’s early season close wins were starting to look worse and worse, but I went with Georgia anyway, and while they did win, it wasn’t enough to get me in the W column. 

Middle Tennessee State (-2) @ Western Kentucky: (win) “But the better team is MTSU, they are good enough to be favored on the road as a 3 win team, and that tells me a lot about Western Kentucky.” Middle Tennessee ran the show in this game, never trailing for a minute and winning by 11 on the road. What can I say? It was a good week to be a me. You could almost say a Lucky day to be Lester? Whoa!!! A quick one. 

Toledo (+16) @ Western Michigan: (win) “Toledo has one good game against a decent team, and no I’m not talking about their win over Michigan – the Wolverines suck. I’m talking about a close loss at home against Central Michigan. Other than that, they’ve played terribly – especially on the road. Take away their win at Michgan and they’ve lost two straight on the road, to Norther Illinois and Akron, but 31 and 17 respectively. Western Michigan is better than that. But there’s this little thing called a let down game, and that’s what has me riding the Toledo Rockets in this one. Western Michigan sure can score the pigskin, but they allow a good amount of points as well. After upsetting Illinois (though it wasn’t much of an upset, but still a big win over a big name school) this game should be one in which they come out a little flat. I still like them to win, but Toledo at +16 will be my pick here.” I hit this game right in the nuts, you can’t argue with that. No doubt about it, Toledo is the lesser team, but Western Michigan didn’t play up to their ability. Sometimes that’s just the way the cookie crumbles. 

California @ Oregon State (-3): (win) The Beavers were better than Cal, and a late pick 6 cleared this one up perfectly. Cal couldn’t deal with constant pressure all day, and a Rodgers’ brother duo that did work from start to finish. The Beave is tough enough. 

North Carolina @ Maryland (+3): (win) “But this should be a bit of a let down week for the Heels, a win gets them a tie for first place in their division, but they are walking into Maryland. The Terps are undefeated at home and as good as NC is, they aren’t far and above better than Maryland. The Terps have crushed some dreams this season, and are trying to find the way to the top of their own half of the ACC. In College football, the home field advantage can be the answer to your betting questions – this is one of those times.” And what do you know, the Terps pull out the win at home. It was close. It was a battle. It was everything I thought it was, and at the foot of a 4th quarter field goal the Terps are still undefeated in Maryland. 

New Mexico State (+17) @ Fresno State: (win) “This seems like a good bet. Despite Fresno killing their bettors, the public still seems to love them, just waiting for them to finally win their second game against the spread. Interesting. What has Fresno done to be a 17 point favorite this season? Nothing is the answer. Take the Aggies.” There you have it. It took a late Fresno State 4th quarter touchdown to take the lead from New Mexico State, while me and that 17 point spread easily. 

Boise State @ Idaho (+36.5): (win) I said the value was with Idaho because the spread in this rivalry game had never been as big as it was this weekend. Boise State won by 35, and just by the hair on the spread’s butt crack, I won. Boise hammered Idaho in the 2nd half, but it was that early fight that got me the win. 

Oklahoma State @ Colorado (+18): (win) I said this spread was a touchdown bigger than it should be. I was right. The OK State Cowboys won by 13, but that was still enough for me to cover. Yhatzee! 

Troy State (+16.5) @ LSU: (win) This was a weird one. You can see why I wanted to leave it alone. The first 3 quarters were why I took Troy State, and the last quarter, the one where LSU did anything they wanted to do and fought back after being down by a seemingly insurmountable spread, and won – that’s why I didn’t want to bet on this game. That being said, I had the right side, as surprising as that was – it was Troy State’s side. 

Boston College @ Florida State (-6): (loss) The Seminoles fought back late, but BC was too tough defensively – mainly on their defensive front. FSU was hurried all day long and the Eagles won by a touchdown. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (-9.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini: (win) I thought Juice’s touchdown pass with 50 seconds left in the game was going to get me, but then I remembered my line was 9.5 not 10.5 – close one. Ohio State won this game much bigger than the score showed. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats: (win) The Cornhuskers trounced the WIldcats, making me look like a smart little sports writing college picks advisor. Wahoo! 

Washington State Cougars (+36.5) @ Arizona State Wildcats: (win) As I said, it came down to wondering if the Wildcats could score enough points. A team that hasn’t scored 42 all season long shouldn’t be favored by 36.5 – Now 31? Sure… Haha… The Cougars tried to get me a loss, but they managed to hold the Wildcats out of the end zone one last time. 

Arizona Wildcats (+4) @ Oregon Ducks: (loss) The Ducks killed the Cats early, it was 44-17 at half time. But the Wildcats fought back and it took a late touchdown run by LeGarrette Blount that actually covered the spread for Ducks bettors. Arizona scored 28 straight points to pull within three and pull a sure loss into a cover win, but that late score did bettors justice and I lose. 

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Houston Cougars (+4.5): (win) These teams weren’t quite as equal as I thought, either that or Houston just had the right bounces because the Cougars did work, basically doubling up Tulsa and scoring 70 points on the Hurricane. 

San Jose State Spartans (+15.5) @ Nevada Wolfpack: (loss) It was 31-17 going into the 4th quarter, but the Spartans were shutout in the final frame as they allowed 10 – that got me another loss on this college Saturday. 

UCLA Bruins (-7) @ Washington Huskies: (win) The Huskies play calling is brutal. They are not good personnel-wise. There was absolutely no reason this game should have had this close of a spread. Free money indeed.

Five for Friday

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I missed a couple this week, but I can only blame Comcast – those bastards!!! Here’s some help for those in need. 

For those Dynasty Gurus – watch these guys this weekend- they are all special and should find places in your early rookie draft next season. 

LeSean McCoy – Underrated and a definite NFL runner. Great power and slide and speed. He has the vision to be good from the get go. 

Beanie Wells – This one is obvious, but I expect just about 200 yards against the Illini. He’s going to be a good one and runs with some toughness you don’t normally see. 

Darrius Heyward-Bey – Special player. He might not get all the pub that Maclin and Crabtree and Dez get down there in the Big 12, and his numbers won’t match up, but this kid is a beast and fast enough to make all the plays. Get him late on draft day and reap the benefits. 

Glen Coffee – I imagine Coffee comes out, and he should. He had a huge game last week against LSU and should continue to prove himself. He’s a fast kid and has a great frame to add some size. He is just 21 and could be a very good one with his slashing style. 

Now for some guys I expect to have huge Sundays…

Brandon Marshall – he hasn’t done all that much lately – that should just get him ready for a humongous day this Sunday against Atlanta. 

Tyler Thigpen – New Orleans will score points, but I like KC to possibly pull the upset here – that means Tyler will have to be on his best behavior. 

Ronnie Brown – It seems like Ricky has been getting more looks than Ronnie lately, but Brown is the better runner and I think he has 100+ yards against the terrible Raiders this weekend. He might even throw one, hasn’t had a TD pass in a while. 

Matt Forte – he’ll do it all for the Bears against the Pack this weekend. 

Frank Gore – should be HUGE against the Rams – he’s too good to not bust out in this game against a terrible defensive front. 

Chris Johnson – after a very tough week against Chicago, this super rookie will dominate the Jags front line – I’m willing to suggest he has one of his best days as a Titan. 

Upsets of the Week… 

Cleveland will take down Buffalo I reckon, and I’m looking at the Chiefs to grab a big one at home against the overrated Saints.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 11

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Believe it or not, I’m back – back to share the questions that be asked upon me. Don’t forget, you can send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I answer them relatively promptly for an old sour man, and every once in a while you get a little humor that should brighten your otherwise gloomy day. Bingo!

Red Red Ryan writes, “Thank you for all your wisdom – I did all the fantasy bowing you suggested, even making a little shrine of Splinter Shannahan – this all turned around last week when I went into overtime once again, and needed less than 20 points from Steve Breaston to win the game. I thought I was in trouble when Breaston basically had that covered going into the half, but it was the Anquan Boldin show after the break and I ended up winning by a point. Is there anyone else I should pay homage to this week?”

Anytime I can help, I’m happy to do so – unless of course you are in a league with me, in that case you should worship the wrong fantasy figures like Brian Billick, Andy Reid, John Fox, and Freddie Mitchell. Red, you have been a valued reader, and hilarious question asker over the years, and I just wanted to offer you a blog/post spot on team LuckyLester.com. I talked to the young buck and he likes your style, besides the redness, but thinks you’d be a nice addition. Let me know if you’d be interested, and you’ll have free reign to write whatever you want (that’s not abusive and terrible). As for things you should do this week, I’d reccomend putting on some old football pads, grabbing a baseball bat, and do your best rendition of the famous Bo Jackson poster. Take that, put it on your wall in a frame, and watch your fantasy stats soar into the playoffs. Nothing better than the Red meets Bo poster. Good luck!

Johnny 6 asks, “Would you start DeAngelo Williams over Adrian Peterson this week? The Panthers play the Lions and AP goes up against a tough Tampa D – your call big guy.”

Johnny one better than Five, that’s a tough one, but yes I would start DeAngelo. He’s been great lately, and the team is really feeding him the rock. AP does have a very tough match-up against the Bucs, a team that has allowed one single rushing touchdown all year long. I expect that game to be heave Bucs early, but it’s hard as hell not to start that beast in Minnesota. Yes, I’d start DeAngelo, and I’m hoping for you that I’m right about that one.

Alice in Dublin writes, “I’m a chick, I’m hot, I’m in 25, and I’m living in Dublin while playing fantasy football – how many of those have you gotten questions from? Here’s the deal, I’m playing my stupid boyfriend this week and I just want to make sure I beat his ass. I have to start 2 running backs between Steve Slaton, Marion Barber, and Joseph Addai – and I have to start 3 receivers from Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Jericho Cotchery, and Brandon Marshall – which 5 do you start? Thanks in advance, I’ll love you forever if you give me good advice.”

I think I’m in love. Alice, the answer to your first question is none. For your football related stuff, I’d go with Marion Barber for sure, and a slight lean toward Steve Slaton over Addai. Seems crazy, with Addai healthy and all, but the place to attack the Texans is through the air, and with that being said I’m almost willing to believe that Dominic Rhodes does just as well as Addai. I know Slaton was bad last week, and Bob Sanders the running game missile is back for the Colts, but I like Slaton to have a solid game this week, just a little better than Addai’s. At receiver I’d leave Calvin Johnson on the bench, as crazy as that sounds, and I’d start Brandon Marshall, Jericho Cotchery, and Andre Johnson. It’s a tough call between Calvin and Andre, both have very tough match-ups, but despite the top pass defense in Indy, Sage takes plenty of chances and Andre is an absolute beast. I couldn’t sit him down. I love your style, feel free to write in any time.