Papas Picks: Free NFL UNDERDOG Picks for Week 9

Needless to say, after going 0-3 in Week 7 I took a week off. I can’t be rocking 0-3 numbers when my nephew spends a good amount of time picking every game and winning on a regular basis. Don’t get me wrong, that’s good for the site, and what’s good for the site is good for me, but I hate losing and refuse to do it. So I spent a little more time digging into some dogs this week, and I agree with 1 of Lucky’s Picks, and am against him on 3 of my own. Good luck to him, I hope he goes 10-3, a great week! Here’s where the wild goose goes:

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HOUSTON TEXANS (+9.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: The deal is Houston plays Peyton and company tough – it’s the way it is. Matt Schaub has become a young quarterback that can make it rain on the toughest of pass defenses, and look at the Colts secondary, the thing is a substitute teaching clinic right now. 3 starters out. And those aren’t the only injuries in Indy right now. A lot is being said about Steve Slaton’s benching, shoot, I think he has a big week for the Texans and and outright win for the road scholars in this one wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Lots of free points, sign me up!

Baltimore Ravens @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3.5): The Bengals beat the Ravens once, and they can do it again. Cedric Benson became the first running back in a long time to make the Ravens look bad, and I think he can do it again. Joe Flacco won’t do enough to counteract the failures of the Ravens rushing attack against Cinci’s solid Run D. I like the Bengals to win outright, and hey, +3.5 at home is great value.

DETROIT LIONS (+11.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Sign the Hawks up as a team that should never ever, never ever ever, ever ever, be favored by double digits. They have back up linemen that will make the Lions pass rush look solid. I think Seattle wins, but by a field goal, a touchdown, 10 points at most. The Lions will do enough to keep this one within ten.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+5) @ N.Y. Giants: Lucky might not be willing to give up on the Giants, but I’m not willing to bet on them until they prove they’re the real Giants. I want the anixation of Puerto Rico Giants – not the Little Giants that get killed by everyone in the league. N.Y. has been thrown on a ton lately, and they’ve looked bad offensively. I’ll take Phillip Rivers to show he’s worth more than Ellie. Give me the Chargers in New York!

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Tennessee Volunteers Pick

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South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I know that I always take the unranked favorite over the ranked dog, but this one is going to be different. Favoring the Vols here is based solely off their ability to play close to top ranked teams, without ever winning of course. Well, despite what people have chosen to believe, these Gamecocks can play ball. At 6-2 they’ve lost a close one at Georgia and another tough one on the road at Alabama. Now, the Vols beat up on Georgia, but the Bulldogs were working against themselves in that one, Tennessee just had to show up to take advantage. Despite that one game, Tennessee hasn’t shown the offensive explosion to be a 6.5 point favorite against a solid team, especially not one with a powerful defense. Expect the Gamecocks to cover in Tennessee. I do.

Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Free Pick

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Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6) Free Pick: First of all, rarely do Texas Tech Red Raider games come down to 6 points, so if you think the Raiders are going to win, a 6 point spread shouldn’t worry you at all. And it doesn’t worry me. I know Kansas had a nice run to start the season, but you saw how out-matched they were last week when Oklahoma absolutely blew them out of the water. Texas Tech isn’t Oklahoma, but they do have the offensive ability to crush the Jayhawks. What makes me like the Red Raiders even more are the words from Mike Leach’s mouth about how the Raiders are playing like piss because of their fat little girl friends. Awesome. If that doesn’t get their attention, nothing will. After beating up on Nebraska, the Red Raiders fell to Texas A&M, and they fell hard. I think Leach’s antics and just being a better football team gets them back on track this week at home, then Jayhawks just happen to be the team in the way. Texas Tech has taken each of the last 3 meetings with Kansas, and 6 out of the last 7. Last year the Red Raiders smoked the Jayhawks, 63-21. They can put up some points, and since Kansas has yet to slow down any reasonable offense whatsoever, I can’t see them doing anything to slow one of the most dynamic offenses in college football.

Missouri Tigers vs Colorado Buffaloes Free NCAA Pick

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Missouri Tigers @ Colorado Buffaloes (+4) Free NCAA Pick: These teams are closer in ability that anybody thinks. They both struggle against good teams, but both can bring a good attack on any given day. The Buffaloes are always good at home, something that makes them a nice value bet here. Colorado hasn’t beaten Missouri since 2005, but five out of the last 6 match-ups between these two teams have gone the way of the home team. Missouri’s getting a spread as if they’re the much better team, 3.5 points on the road, come on. You add the fact that their starting quarterback is questionable with a bum wheel, and the spread looks even more ridiculous. Colorado has played very well at times this year, and I think they have a good shot to beat the Tigers.

East Carolina Pirates vs Memphis Tigers Free NCAA Pick

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East Carolina Pirates (-4) @ Memphis Tigers Pick: This is a Tuesday game, and I’m sure standard mid-week rates apply, the home dog usually seems like a nice bet in that case. But I don’t see it here. East Carolina has downed Memphis three straight seasons, and covered seven straight. While the home team has won 7 of the last 10 in this series, and East Carolina is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the road, I just don’t see any value in a Memphis team that, quite frankly, hasn’t looked worth a bet yet this year. Against North Carolina and West Virginia (two solid teams, both spending time in the Top 25 this year) the Pirates were within a score late in the 4th quarter. They’ve been in every game they have played. Memphis is more of a question mark every time out. They’ve looked good twice, mediocre once, and kicked around the rest of the times. Against like opponents, the Tigers are 0-2 while the Pirates 2-0. That doesn’t always matter too much, but with all the other things to like about ECU, that just helps the decision come easier. Good luck!