NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 5

7-5-1 heading into Monday Night, I locked down yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5)Baltimore Ravens: (WINNER) “The Ravens won’t be able to throw. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.” Well, I loved it all week long but it started to get more and more worrisome as Sunday began to eclipse – but in the end, that field goal I needed the Titans to cover came through as Tennessee had one more score at the end of the game to pull me up 3. Whew.

Seattle Seahawks (+9)New York Giants: (LOSER) Washington State sports = no thanks. I don’t know what’s happened to the Hawks, but they’ll need to do a lot more than beat some random bad team in the NFC to get my full confidence again – I should have known. Sorry for leading you astray on this butt kicking, the Hawks lost by a million it seemed like. 44-6 = one million in football speak.

Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia Eagles (-5): (LOSER) I think this one is close – and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell.” Okay, the Eagles did put some pressure on Campbell to start the game, but their run defense that had been stellar was torched by Clinton Portis. Portis was in full beast mode, showing hulk strength, busting tackles and basically carrying the Redskins to victory. The Eagles were up early and I was smiling, but Philly didn’t do anything offensively, and the Redskins took full advantage. Washington is really impressing me.

San Diego Chargers (-6)Miami Dolphins: (LOSER) “I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.” Soooo… Haha, apparently the “experts” slapped me around on this one. San Diego came out a little stale, and Miami showed a couple folks that their win over New England wasn’t as flukey as it seemed. Can Sparano and Parcells really give this bad of a team this much confidence? It seems like it. I was DEAD WRONG about this one, and even though I thought it’d be close, the Dolphins are just much more physical than I thought. I don’t think they’ll sleep on anyone else this season, but they’ll continue to be a tough out.

Chicago Bears (-3.5)Detroit Lions: (WINNER) 34-7… It doesn’t pay to be a Lion fan right now. And don’t get me wrong, it rarely has. The Bears embarrassed the Lions in all aspects of the game, making me look smart with my road favorite pick here.

Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay Packers (-7): (LOSER) Well, Aaron Rodgers played, had a pretty damn good game, and the Packers still go to 2-3 on the season, tallying up their 3rd loss in as many contests. It looks like these young teams with new coaches are doing something right these days – maybe a couple of these franchises (Miami, Atlanta, Washington) are turning the corner. I definitely like what I see from Matt Ryan and the young Falcons – going into Green Bay and man-handling the Packers up front is big step forward.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: (WINNER) “This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here.” What else could you call what happened on Sunday in Houston? Will to win. The Colts snuck out another one, and while they could easily be 0-4, they’re through the first quarter of the season at 2-2. Houston will get it together, but they’ll have a tough couple days thinking about this one getting away. I lucked out with this cover. Houston dominated the Colts for much of this game. 21 points in 4 minutes got me a one point win – you don’t want much of that business going on here, not unless heart failure is your ideal way to go.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there.” Larry Johnson, the AFC’s leading rusher coming in, had 2 yards on 7 carries and the Panthers shutout the Chiefs in dominating fashion. Got this one right on the button.

Tampa Bay BuccaneersDenver Broncos (-3): (PUSH) “This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation.” Well, it was close, and the gut-feeling had some kind of feeling going on. In the end this low scoring affair ended with Splinter’s Broncos up 3 and pushing me to a tie.

Buffalo BillsArizona Cardinals (pk): (WINNER)  “I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.” Well, the highs and lows definitely evened out. It didn’t hurt that Trent Edwards went down early with a concussion, and even though Losman looked good throwing the ball a couple times, his turnover prone quarterbacking meant the end for Buffalo. Arizona played well, stuffing the run pretty good and constantly attacking on offense. All in all, I was right. Ha,

New England Patriots (-3)San Francisco 49ers: (WINNER)  “I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.” (YEP) – The 49ers had a chance if they gave Frank Gore about 15 more carries – as it turned out, they just threw the ball a lot and put up their fair share of turnovers. That will lose you any game against the Pats. Yay me, boo Mike Martz!

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5)Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) This one was close, once again proving that even bad teams in the NFL shouldn’t be underdogs by 17 points. Ridiculous. The Bengals were even tougher than the final score insists, as a late touchdown put the Cowboys up 9, and before that Carson Palmer and company were a two point conversion away from tying this thing late in the 4th. Good value, good win, this one made me a sure thing winner in Week 5.

Pittsburgh SteelersJacksonville Jaguars (-4): (LOSER) The final score was close, and Jacksonville was up one late in the game, but the Steelers really came out fired up for this one, out-toughing the Jaguars from the get go. Pittsburgh is an interesting team that I’m not reading real well, no question about that. Their run-defense played inspired football handing me my 6th loss on the week.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)New Orleans Saints: I won this game, and I have to say, despite losing the yardage battle, and feeling that I was going to lose the game all night, and watching Drew Brees pass at will, I was really happy when Martin Gramatica came in to put the Saints up three. That basically gives me a win. This was definitely and interesting one, and I’m not sure I picked the right side on this game, but I did come out on top, bringing me to 8-5-1 on the week, three more games over .500. I’ll take a win any way I can get it.

Five for Friday

I’m putting you guys on UPSET watch – both fantasy-wise and reality football games as well. I have five of each- here’s the explosive Friday Five (x2) – that equals 10…

FANTASY

  1. The Ravens (a Top 3 defense so far this season in fantasy land) goes up against a Titans team that doesn’t put up a lot of points. You’d think this would be a good match-up, but get ready for the fantasy upset. The Titans don’t make many mistakes, and the Ravens have to be a little behind during a short week and after a big physical game on Monday night in Pittsburgh. Don’t expect big things from the Ravens D.
  2. Tony Romo against the Bengals might seem dreamy, but I just don’t see him loading up and throwing the ball all over the field, not after Dallas forgot about their stellar rushing attack and lost to Washington last week. Tony won’t throw more than 25 times, and I think that limits his value this week. He’ll be good, but I’d say he just sneaks into the Top 10, not a real Tony Romo week.
  3. Santana Moss against the Eagles – right now Moss is in one of those “big year” states that he gets in from time to time, and I’m sure he’ll continue to do well – just not this week in Philly. The Eagles secondary is very good, and I’d bet they put extra work into shutting down Moss. Randel El is solid, but if he gets the ball he won’t hurt you like Santana does, same with Chris Cooley. I’m guessing Moss has 5 catches or less for less than 50 yards.
  4. Mike Turner – all the “experts” are saying that Mike can’t do it against good defenses, and this week they can’t be proven right. I love the Packers, but they lost a great DT in a trade this year, and they are missing another starter this week. They are struggling in the secondary with injuries, and their big hitting safety is out too. Turner will do well against a good defense, but that defense is injury depleted. For the record, I’m not one of those anti-Turner “experts”.
  5. Marshawn Lynch against Arizona might sound flashy, but I don’t think it will turn out that way. Arizona is much better against the run than people give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t very creative with Lynch in his carry load. Expect him to be very mediocre this week. Again.

REAL FOOTBALL

  1. I’m taking the Colts, but the Texans are winless and they pack a pretty nice offensive combo through the air and on the ground. Andre Johnson hasn’t gone off yet, and Kevin Walter has been solid. Steve Slaton might do the trick for Houston. Upset watch – get on it!
  2. Washington at Philadelphia – they can’t possibly beat the Cowboys and Eagles back to back, can they? I don’t think it will happen, but the Redskins are legit. They have a tough team that comes out to win every time. The Redskins are pretty injury ridden defensively, but you never know, they could use black magic.
  3. Detroit vs. Chicago – once again, I’m with the Bears on this one, but Chicago could revert back to last years’ play, and Detroit could crawl out under the Millen rock in a single week. Detroit has some talent, no doubt about that, and this would be a big one for them. I’m just saying, watch out.
  4. Tampa Bay at Denver is scary for the Broncos. Tampa does all the things that Denver doesn’t – ball control, tough defense, doesn’t give you anything for free, doesn’t take unnecessary chances. Denver could win by two touchdowns or get beat at home – interesting week for a team that was becoming everyone’s favorite offensive show.
  5. Seattle never does well on the road and New York is undefeated after winning the Super Bowl – look out, upset city could rear it’s ugly head. You know why? Because it seems that unlikely – that’s right. Seattle gets Engram and Branch back, and that should give them a little boost. Julius is running well. This defense is tougher than scores have shown. New York is without Plaxico, a guy that torches Seattle. You never know.

Free NFL Picks: Week 1

I’m back with my free picks. Absolutely free and I’m picking every single game every single week. Last season we tried something a little different and I just couldn’t fall in love with withholding my best picks so I’m just flinging them all out there for you see. I have a lot of road teams in week 1, and while I’m never a huge fan of that, I can’t fluctuate just because the road team looks good in Week 1. Every season is a new one and here’s to hoping this year is a great one. Follow along every week for my free picks… Enjoy the show!

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3): I don’t like the Giants, so don’t expect this pick to be indicative of my future picks – but how can you not like them to win the opener? Okay, so they lose Strahan and Osi is out for the season -that could definitely have a trickle down draining effect on what became a very good defense. They also lost Gibril Wilson (don’t care) and Kawika Mitchell (good player, but not great). They still have a very good set of corners and a talented offense all around the depth chart. The Redskins could become a solid unit later in the season, but early on I still expect them to make mistakes with their new systems. Jim Zorn is a good coach, and Jason Campbell should flourish under his tutelage, but Zorn is no miracle worker and the Skins should still struggle to find consistency. Osi’s absence won’t hurt the Giants against the run, which is where Washington holds most of their strength. Expect the Giants to grind one out to open the season, and get their first win of the season. I don’t think they’ll make it back to the playoffs, but a Week 1 home game as a 3 point favorite – I’ll take it.

Cincinnati Bengals  (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens: I really dislike both of these teams. I didn’t like either much to start with, but then I was basically forced to watch a couple of each team’s pre-season games. Gross. I would say that no team played worse than the Bengals during the pre-season, but I don’t think I could back that up if someone brought up the Ravens. Baltimore never scored more than 16 points in a pre-season game, and the offense seemed to get worse the longer they worked together – putting up 16, 15, 10, and 9 disrespectfully. The Bengals’ 1st team offense looked terrible in each of the three games they made appearances in. Carson Palmer looked lost and their was no timing or flow offensively. Chad Ocho Cinco got hurt, and TJ Houshmandzadeh never played. If I took totals I would roll with the under – but I’m picking sides here and the lesser of two evils is Cincinnati as a pick-em. The Bengals have taken the last three games in this match-up and 6 of their last 7 overall against the Ravens. I also like what Chris Perry brings to their offense – and I know he’s healthy to start this game. In a game where both teams should fight to score, I like the Bengals to win a battle or two.

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: I don’t care that Chad Pennington is playing his old team and really wants to stick it to them. I don’t care that the Jets don’t have a good defense and that their rushing attack sputtered all of last season. I don’t even care about Brett Favre joining the Jets. This is what I care about: The Jets weren’t a terrible team last season. They lost 12 games last season, sure, but seven of those losses came by a touchdown or less. That means they had something. Like I said, Brett’s addition hasn’t wooed me into taking the Jets, but Alan Faneca’s signing has sure helped. The Jets have a pretty good couple of young studs on the o-line, and now they have one of the top 3 guards in the NFL to help them grow. The Fins lost their best tackler (Zach Thomas), their best pass rusher (Jason Taylor), and they’re coming off a 15 loss season that almost made them famous. Yes sir, I don’t care that 70% of the public is on this game, I will be taking the Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs (+17) @ New England Patriots: Honestly, this comes down to two things. I know the Chiefs are going to pound the ball and run clock like it’s their freaking job. I also know that Tom Brady’s injury is worrying me. It’s like he never healed. He’s been sleeping with a gorgeous model and vacationing since his “best team ever” lost the Super Bowl to Little Eli’s Giants, and his ankle is still bothering him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he’ll play, but how important will it be for them to keep him in if the Pats are up two touchdowns late? I just don’t see it and I don’t see the Patriots doing everything they can to put up 50 points a game either. Take the Chiefs if you’re picking this game because there are so many ways the Chiefs can cover a 17 point spread, I don’t even know where to start. I also don’t like the fact that New England went ahead and picked up a bunch of cut-scraps from around the league. I’ve also decided that 17 point favorites aren’t a good value in pro-football. If you are a Patriotic believer, I advise you sit this one out – but if you’re willing to roll with the dog, the Chiefs look like a decent value on the road.

Houston Texans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Maybe it’s because I’m an old offensive guard, but I have a feeling that Alen Fanneca’s absence will hurt the Steelers just as much as his place in New York will help the Jets. You saw what happened to the Hawks rushing attack when Steve Hutchinson headed to Minnesota, and you saw what the Vikings run-game looked like with Steve manning the left guard spot. Look for the Steelers to be less of a running team than ever before. That will hurt them against a very good Texans pass-rush. And despite the Texans inability to acquire a sure-thing starting running back, I think their offense is a scary group. Schaub will only be better in his second season. Andre Johnson is an absolute best. Owen Daniels is a tough TE to guard. Kevin Walter proved his worth in the second half of last season. Jacoby Jones is talented. And honestly, I really like the duo of Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor – call me crazy, but I do. Pittsburgh has the toughest schedule in the NFL, and this is supposed to be one of their easiest games of the season – but it’s not going to be a pushover. I like the Texans to hold tough if not win outright in Pittsburgh – and that makes me love all those points. The one thing that has me questioning myself is the Texans on the road versus the Steelers at home. The Steelers only lost to the Jaguars in Pittsburgh last season, having their way with most other opponents. The Texans won just two games on the road, versus a bad Panthers team and an even worse Raiders team. They didn’t lose by less than 8 in any of their road losses. I’m not a lover of last years’ numbers, so I’m not changing my pick here – I’m just warning you readers.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+3): I like the Jaguars to finish the season strong and very possibly take the division from the Colts this year – but I’m not so sure how they’re going to fair in this contest. The Titans are a very tough defense that plays inspired at home. I know the Jaguars are solid, and they’ve looked very good in the pre-season compared to the Titans who have looked absent, but Tennessee as a 3 point dog at home against a beat up Jaguars offense? I can’t find any value in the Jaguars here, so the bet has to go with Tennessee.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons: This game isn’t going to be a blowout, but I don’t see the Falcons having enough secondary talent to keep the Lions receiving corps out of the end-zone. I like the Falcons more than most, and am not crazy about the Lions – I just don’t think this is a good match-up for Atlanta. The Falcons will find success on the ground, but Detroit will eventually realize that they can pick on the rookie quarterback a little bit – stack the box a lot – and end up winning this game by a touchdown or more. I like Mike Turner a lot and think he will put up some nice yardage totals against the Lions – I just don’t think the Falcons air attack is scary enough and thus the Falcons won’t score enough to take this game. Go with Detroit in this one.

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Buffalo Bills: The Seahawks defense is really good. Marcus Trufant is one of the best corners in the league, and I have to think he’ll be able to lockdown Lee Evans. Kelly Jennings will be even better this season, and the Hawks return every single secondary player from last season’s starting group. Deon Grant proved to be a great addition and Bryon Russell does everything well. The Hawks don’t do as well on the road, but going to Buffalo to start the season isn’t as tough as it would be in November, so they should feel lucky. Seattle won’t have either of their projected starters at receiver, as both Branch and Engram are out for the first couple weeks, but a running duo of Maurice Morris and Julius Jones should be enough to do some damage against the Bills defensive front. Also, expect Nate Burleson to have a nice game against a young secondary. The Bills will have too much trouble putting points on the board and the Hawks should walk out of Buffalo with an ugly win in Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Saints aren’t a good home team, they don’t have a good defense, they are going through yet another hurricane in New Orleans, and the Bucs are just flat out better than New Orleans. Sure, Jeff Garcia might be a little rusty after getting barely any action in the pre-season, but he’s a guy that doesn’t make mistakes and is as tough as quarterbacks get. The Bucs offensive line is a very tough group that loves to dig into opposing defenses. The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 match-ups with the Saints against the spread. Tampa Bay may have an aging defense, but they know how to come out of the gates spry and ready to play.

St. Louis Rams (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: What can I say? I really like the Rams as a huge dog in Philly. The Eagles aren’t great out of the gates, and they love to take opponents lightly (see team past). They are hurting to start the season without anybody proven to catch the ball besides their running back. The Eagles should still win this game, but it’s coming down to the end. They don’t have a rushing attack powerful enough to run the Rams out of it, and St. Louis can keep it close with a pretty solid run game of their own. They struggled last year, but people need to remember that this is basically the same rushing attack that did a ton of damage in 2006. The Eagles run-defense isn’t good. Don’t believe for a second that picking up a corner for 60 million bucks makes your run-defense stout again. With a spread that seems to be growing by the day, I don’t know if it’s better to wait a little longer or just get it while you can – but i like the Rams at anything 7 points or greater and you can find that everywhere.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns: I don’t know if I’m willing to buy the Cowboys as this season’s Super Bowl favorite, but I will tell you that I’m ready to purchase the Browns as this year’s big disappointment. I liken the Browns to New Orleans last year – and this game is going to be a tough one for them. I think Marion Barber is going to be a beast this season, starting in Cleveland with that revamped Browns defense. Yeah, I don’t buy it I guess. I don’t think you can buy a bunch of high-priced free agents and turn your defensive unit from goo to gold – but that’s just me. The Cowboys are going to have a much better defense this season because they absolutely stole an explosive cover man. Sure, Pacman Jones isn’t citizen number one, but while he’s on the football field he’s causing problems for opposing offenses and special teams. Jones is a playmaker and that will be on parade all season long. I’m one of the few guys thinking Pacman isn’t going to slip up anytime soon. Too much to lose, every guy has his epiphany and I think Jones had it. Romo is as good as I thought he’d be and TO is ready to do more than ever. I like the Cowboys to win this game by double digits. I found a great line at BetEd, but I’d still take the Cowboys around -5.

Carolina Panthers (+10) @ San Diego Chargers: I finally think the Panthers might be ready for that next step this season. Ha. It seems like that is said every single year, but I haven’t heard much of that coo-aid this time around. But I kind of like Carolina to put up a battle in this one. The Panthers have shown me throughout the pre-season that they can run the ball with effectiveness as both DeAngelo Williams and rookie running back Jonathan Stewart look solid. I know Steve Smith is out for this game, but DJ Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are two solid options for Delhomme on the outside. The Panthers defense is the unit that looks good to me. Peppers will be better after a down season and Jon Beason is going to be one heck of a linebacker in this league. Look for the Panthers to stay within single digits and give an overhyped Chargers team a run for their money on opening day. Plus, the Panthers are always solid value as a dog – history says that, when healthy, the Panthers are a great dog to take for a walk.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: Look at Kurt Warner’s numbers against the 49ers last season – you laughing yet? If I’m not mistaken, the old man threw for 484 yards in that game. This year, the 49ers are under the giveaway happy Martz philosophy, so that means more scoring chances for the Cardinals. I’m never sold on either of these teams, but I will tell you this, while Martz addition seems to do wonders for fantays teams all across the nation, it doesn’t do much for the prospect of picking his new team against the spread. Over the total? Maybe – but a lot of throwing the ball and not much running only works when you have guys like Randy Moss and Tom Brady – not J.T. O’Sullivan and Josh Morgan. Giving points on the road isn’t always a grand value, but the only value I see in this game is with the Cardinals. They have a more efficient offense and a defense that can make plays.

Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: I found 10.5 in this game and I am that much happier because of it. The Colts defense looked bad during the pre-season, really bad, and while that doesn’t always mean the world is falling, I can’t see it as a good sign of things to come. I’m not sure Peyton will hold up in a bunch of shootouts this season, so I expect the Colts to use their running game early and often. I think Kyle Orton is a relatively mistake free quarterback and that bodes well for the Bears covering as big dogs. I think Chicago will actually run the ball pretty effectively against the Colts, even though the Bears don’t have a stellar offensive line. Indy doesn’t have a lot of help in the secondary, and if they put their corners in a tough spot Chicago will find a way to take advantage – even with Orton and no real #1 receiving threat on the team. Manning will be slow to come back, and despite what he wants you to believe, he’s not 100%. I’ll take the Bears.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2): The Vikings lost a huge hunk of their rushing attack when the Vikings lost Bryant McKinnie to a 4-game suspension. That won’t help against a great Packer defense. The Packers have the cover corners to put most of their attention on the Vikings rushing attack. That’s not good news for Viking fans. A lot of people like the VIkings in this one, but I think they are ignoring the prospects of back-up offensive tackles going up against Aaron Kampman and the Packer’s linebacking crew. That’s not a good match-up for the Vikings in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is better than anyone is giving him credit for, but on this team he won’t have to be. Aaron won’t take all the big chances that Brett took, and while he won’t be as flashy or tally up the numbers like #4, he will give the Packers a great chance to win each time he takes the field. Don’t give up on the Packers just because Brett is wearing a different color green.

Denver Broncos (-1) @ Oakland Raiders: This is a tough one for me. I’d like to believe that the Raiders can run all over the Broncos porous rush-defense and that Oakland’s secondary will be a good match-up for Jay Cutler and a receiving corps missing their best player – Brandon Marshall. You know what, I do believe that, and that’s why this game is so tough for me. The think pushing me back over and eventually making me pick the Broncos is the Raiders run defense. What run defense am I talking about? That one that is B-A-D. The Broncos really know how to run the ball, and Selvin Young can get it done in Oakland. JaMarcus Russell won’t take too many chances, but when he does you can bet Champ Bailey and Dre Bly will be there to make him pay for it. Denver’s the better team on opening night, but the Raiders could mature as the season moves forward. Take Denver in this one.