Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7) Free NFL Pick: I think one of the best teams in football will rebound against a one-dimensional Arizona team. I think the Giants pass rushers will pin their ears back and get to Warner a handful of times – everybody knows, if you can get to Kurt you can take down the Cardinals. People look at last week’s game against the Hawks and have to see a 27-3 game that Arizona dominated, but in reality the Hawks just sucked offensively. It was pressure, sure, but the Cardinals will have to bring more guys if they want to penetrate that offensive line in New York. That will open up big plays for Eli, and as much as I’ve been on the guy over the past few seasons, calling him overrated among other things, he looks like a Top 10 QB in the league these days, and his confidence and will to win has me appreciating him a lot more, even though he has a gooey saddest boy face on the sidelines. No running game against the Giants spells trouble, Justin Tuck and company spell’s sack city.
Tag Archives: New York Giants
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Pick
New York Giants (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: The Giants just keep getting the job done. It’s not as under the radar as it has been, but for being in New York, having the highest paid quarterback in the league, beating everyone in their path, and all that other stuff, they don’t get nearly as much love as say the Patriots, or even the Saints for that matter. The Saints have been solid, no doubt about it, but they have yet to show me they are the top team in the league, while New York has proven to be in that conversation over and over. The Saints offense has really struggled against top ranked defenses, and if not for some touchdown production on special teams and defense, I don’t think they’d be undefeated. Now their defense has played much better, definitely, and they’ve shown me a lot of guts this season when things aren’t going perfectly their way, but they haven’t played an all around solid team like New York yet. I know the Saints have had two weeks to prepare, but in a way, so have the Giants – last week they played Oakland. I like the Giants to run the ball on the Saints, something New Orleans hasn’t had done to them so far this year, and that should be the difference in this close game. The Giants play well on the road, losing just twice on the road last season, going 6-2 ATS away from home. I’ll take the Giants and the field goal in New Orleans.
Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football
Hello all. For the last couple years I’ve posted a weekly fantasy football article with the title, theRUNDOWN – well after much thought and consideration, I’ve decided to ax theRUNDOWN and change the way I do things a little bit to make it easier for you. The new plan is that I’ll have a weekly article that highlights many important areas of the upcoming week. I’ll give you 4 different categories outlining fantasy startability every single week. We’ll have Elite Starters, Solid Starters, and Sleepers Starters – basically giving a list of 5 guys in each talent level with solid match-ups. I will also post a Sit ‘Em Son section for regular starters I’d steer clear from. That’s 20 guys rated out by me. Finally, I’ll get all the writers from my site, Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, Papa Weimer, and myself; to rank our top five players for the week at each position. With all things fantasy getting covered, I’m calling this section the Fantasy Focus. And focused it will be. Every new article will come with a small review of last week’s advice (except for this one because, well, there was no fantasy last week – it’s all just beginning). We hold ourselves accountable here. If we treat you well, we brag and gloat like Muhammad Ali, and if we dog it we own it. Here’s Week 1’s Fantasy Focus.
Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…
1. DeAngelo Williams – I think DeLo will get 25 touches this week, he’ll kill that bad run defense from Philly
2. Tom Brady – He’s finding Wes Welker and # 4 all day long.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Boldin might have a small hamstring issue, that means more looks for Larry.
4. Randy Moss – These guys will go hand in hand, Randy and Tom, Buffalo is in for some hurt.
5. Brian Westbrook – He may be a little risky, but that defensive line from Carolina doesn’t stop the run.
Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…
1. Eddie Royal – I think Eddie will grab 10+ balls this week.
2. Reggie Bush – Against the Lions, those who stole Reggie late should smile on Sunday.
3. Ray Rice – You betcha, Ray Ray, come on down and start off your season against the Chiefs… Lucky!
4. Joseph Addai – I think Addai gets 20 carries and does a lot with them against the Jags suspect run D.
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Get ready for Matt to torch the Rams secondary, he’s back and more accurate than ever.
Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…
1. Donnie Avery – will be starting, if you are throwing a guy into the fray, why not a guy against that secondary?
2. Julius Jones – I picked this guy in two leagues after the 11th round, he’ll be a top 20 back this week.
3. Tim Hightower – One of the lowest drafted starting backs in the league, Tim approaches 100 yards this week.
4. Mark Sanchez – I like Mark this week in his opener. He’s going up against a bad defense, check it down to Leon!!!
5. Nate Burleson – ESPN projects 2 points for Nasty Nate – yeah, right – good play this week.
Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…
1. Carson Palmer – I’m not crazy about Palmer this week. I think they run the ball a lot against Denver.
2. Clinton Portis – I know he’s at his best early in the season, but this defensive front is as good as it gets.
3. Willie Parker – Willie got no love, then he got too much, even without Albert the Titans stop Parker.
4. Devin Hester – He may be a speed mis-match for Packers secondary, but those corners are too strong for Hester.
5. Hines Ward – I think Ward struggles in the opener, just a few catches, less than 50 yards.
PS – Don’t be the guy that starts Marshawn Lynch….
Week 1 Fantasy Rankings
Josh Arsenault Ryan Kauffman Papa Weimer Lucky Lester QBs---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.Peyton Manning 1.Tom Brady 1.Drew Brees 1.Tom Brady 2.Drew Brees 2.Drew Brees 2.Peyton Manning 2.Drew Brees 3.Tom Brady 3.Matt Ryan 3.Chad Pennington 3.Peyton Manning 4.Jay Cutler 4.Aaron Rodgers 4.Donovan McNabb 4.Aaron Rodgers 5.Phillip Rivers 5.Peyton Manning 5.Kyle Orton 5.Matt Schaub RBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.Adrian Peterson 1.Adrian Peterson 1.Michael Turner 1.DeAngelo Williams 2.DeAngelo Williams 2.DeAngelo Williams 2.Adrian Peterson 2.Brian Westbrook 3.Steven Jackson 3.Matt Forte 3.LaDainian Tomlinson 3.Maurice Jones Drew 4.Ray Rice 4.Reggie Bush 4.Frank Gore 4.Adrian Peterson 5.Willie Parker 5.Knowshon Moreno 5.Ryan Grant 5.Ronnie Brown WRs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.Andre Johnson 1.Calvin Johnson 1.Steve Smith 1.Randy Moss 2.Reggie Wayne 2.Terrell Owens 2.Reggie Wayne 2.Larry Fitzgerald 3.Randy Moss 3.Steve Smith 3.Marques Colston 3.Reggie Wayne 4.Vincent Jackson 4.Andre Johnson 4.Randy Moss 4.Andre Johnson 5.Calvin Johnson 5.Wes Welker 5.Eddie Royal 5.Greg Jennings TEs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.Antonio Gates 1.Jason Witten 1.Dallas Clark 1.Dallas Clark 2.Jason Witten 2.Antonio Gates 2.Tony Gonzalez 2.Antonio Gates 3.Dallas Clark 3.Dallas Clark 3.Antonio Gates 3.Jason Witten 4.Greg Olsen 4.John Carlson 4.Owen Daniels 4.Zach Miller 5.Dustin Keller 5.Brandon Petitgrew 5.Jason Witten 5.John Carlson TEs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.Ravens 1.Ravens 1.Giants 1.Vikings 2.Steelers 2.Cowboys 2.Ravens 2.Ravens 3.Giants 3.Seahawks 3.Chargers 3.Cowboys 4.Patriots 4.Redskins 4.Saints 4.Giants 5.Bengals 5.Patriots 5.Steelers 5.Bengals Kickers------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your guess is as good as ours. Plus, we don't care enough to write about it.
Free NFL Playoff Picks: Week 2
Alright, Week 1 was a push, but being the stubborn personality that I am, I still think I had the right side on the Eagles/Vikings game. Both teams played like garbage, and the score should have been tighter. Basically I’m saying that they played evenly terrible. As for the Falcons, I don’t know, Matt Ryan played great in the first half but didn’t get much help from his offensive mates, and thus they squandered some opportunities to get points. That hurt some confidence and there it was. Also, Arizona had Atlanta’s snap on key, and their jump off the ball, more than any other reason, was why Atlanta’s rushing game was held down. I honestly think that if the Cards didn’t have that hint, it would be Atlanta headed to round two. But, it is what it is, and Arizona finishes as the right side there. But on to Week 2! Gotta get back in the swing of things.
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans: That whole “a can’t believe we’re not heavily favored, we’re the #1 seed in the league” garbage can only work so many times. Tennessee wasted that excitement a couple times earlier this year. Another thing that has me riding Baltimore’s hot streak into an upset here is the fact that it’s really hard to beat a good team twice in the same season. One more thing you ask? Well, these teams are eerily similar in talent and game plan. Both run the ball a lot. Neither has a prolific passer. One QB hasn’t reached his prime and one is past his prime, but both are about the same level. Both play great defense and bring the physical nature of football to another level. Both have solid kicking games and both won their fair share of close games. I would say Tennessee’s rushing game (and offense) is a little better than Baltimore’s, but I would say the Ravens have a little bit better defense. But neither difference is that great. Both teams have mediocre passing attacks with solid running games and good defenses. But Baltimore just has that playoff winning swagger – and while I know that no rookie quarterback has won two playoff games in his rookie season, I think records are meant to be broken, and that will happen this week in Tennessee.
Arizona Cardinals (+10) @ Carolina Panthers: I think Carolina wins this game, but 10 is too much, especially for a Carolina team that is a little overrated in my opinion, and an Arizona team that showed some defensive excitement last week. Earlier in the year, Arizona was tough to run against. They got after the run and the quarterback, and while they gave up big plays, the didn’t give away free rushing yards. If they come out like that, and in their biggest game in a million years – I think they will, they will be close in this game. They are a tough match-up for the Panthers, even in Carolina where the Panthers have yet to lose a game this season. Double digits is just too much for me. Carolina may have won 4 of their last 5, 3 out of 4 were a play away from a different outcome. They barely snuck by New Orleans in Week 17, lost to the Giants late in Week 16, beat the Broncos (but who didn’t down the stretch), rushed for a gazillion yards against Tampa Bay, but still had to convert a late 3rd and 5 to keep Tampa’s offense off the field in a game that was a touchdown away, and they barely beat the Packers after losing to the Falcons 28-45 in Atlanta and playing an amazingly tight one against the 0-16 Lions, same goes for their two game prior to that against the Raiders and these Cardinals. I’m not saying they are a bad team, but 10 point favorites in the playoffs? I don’t think that has any value at all. I’ll take the Cards.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-4): Just wait, Andy Reid will let Eagle backers down with poor play calling sooner or later, I’ll bet sooner. The Eagles will stop running, start throwing three yard stop patterns on 2nd and 10 and 3rd and 7, and that’s when the frustration on blogs and message boards will hit an all time high. Nobody is playing better than the Eagles right now, and why not, look at all that talent on that team. Young and veteran players alike, new Eagles and old Eagles – this team certainly has the talent to make an unlikely trip to the Big Show. But, that play calling – the “not to lose” attitude that seems to ward off momentum like the Bills and Super Bowl Trophies – that will get the Eagles in the end. The Giants have already lost once to the Eagles, and got a tight win earlier in the year as well – these teams know each other, that’s for sure. But Brandon Jacobs seems fully healthy and back, and he’s a battering ram weapon that New York didn’t have last time these two went at it – not in full health anyway – but even then, his 10 carries for 52 yards might have been a precursor of what is to come when he gets 20 or more totes this weekend. This is a tough one for me, because the Eagles are so up and down and this game is huge. But the Giants aren’t so up and down, they are just flat out good and play to win the game every time out. I’ll take my chances with them.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): I feel as good about this game as I did about the Ravens last week – I think the Steelers cover easily, winning by double digits. Now, that’s not their style, I understand – but that’s the way I see it. This same Steelers team came in and stomped the Chargers in Pittsburgh earlier this year – well, physically stomped them anyway, the score was an improbable 11-10 and a Charger cover for sure. But it was an unlikely set of circumstances that finished with the Steelers needing a late field goal to win it. LT was held to 57 yards on 18 carries while the highest rated quarterback this season, Philip Rivers, was eaten up by Pittsburgh’s defense, completing 15 of 26 tosses for just 159 yards 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions; easily his worst game of the season. On the other hand, Willie Parker had 115 rushing yards, and Big Ben threw for over 300 yards as well. The Steelers just couldn’t get it in the end zone. I doubt it if the same story is played out this week. Big Ben, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and a defense full of absolute beasts that have been here before – I give them the advantage in this one, and advantage I don’t see them wasting against an inferior Chargers team.
NFL Free Picks: Week 14
My Week 14 sees a lot of covers from road teams – and I’m not too sure what to think about that after Week 13 was basically all road team. I do know that I didn’t plan it this way and it’s just the way my eyes see each individual game working out. After another winning week in Lucky Week 13, I’m on to some good things here as well. Don’t trick yourself, check out my free picks!
Oakland Raiders (+11) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have 2 wins by 10 or more points, and last time they played the Raiders they needed 25 4th quarter points to win by 10. What else is that San Diego can’t seem to find a way to come to play against bad teams. The beat KC, sure, but it took a KC missed 2-point conversion to get that win, as they took the Chiefs by a score. It hasn’t been pretty for one of the more talented teams in the AFC, as seen by their 4-8 record after 13 weeks. The Raiders have just 3 wins, but they are playing close with opponents. They’ve finished within 11 points of their opponent in each of their last 4 games, including a big win over Denver in Denver. Should the Raiders be in this game? No, but this is the NFL and the Chargers defense hasn’t been good enough. The whole team hasn’t come to play against lesser opponents. The Raiders are terrible. Getting up for this game during a lost season seems unlikely. I’ll take Oakland on upset Thursday.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-3): The Jaguars have 4 wins this season, all coming against teams that can’t run the ball with consistency and power. They have been better on the road (3-3), but that might just be a coincidence based on the teams they’ve played on the road. Indy, Denver, and Detroit were 3 road wins. Indy was brutal early, and still can’t find a consistent rushing attack. Denver is a freaking yo-yo, and they haven’t been able to run the ball consistently all season long, and Detroit – well, they are freaking Detroit (and Kevin Smith still rushed over 100 yards against the Jags). The Bears can really run the ball. Matt Forte is a special big man. He does everything well and that’s everything bad for Jacksonville. I like the Bears to win this one by a touchdown (because, honestly, they haven’t played well over the last half of the season either). They’re still better than the Jags.
Minnesota Vikings (-9) @ Detroit Lions: (NOTE AT THE END OF THIS PARAGRAPH) I can’t bet on the Lions at home. I’m telling you, for a team like Detroit, playing at home isn’t a good thing. You have a stadium that is half empty if you know what I mean, and that empty half is hoping to watch a little piece of history – they are there at the expense of the winless team on the field. Minnesota has a rushing attack good enough to crush the Lions defensive front, and Gus, Bernard, and company do enough through the air to take advantage if Detroit lines up 15 in the box. This game still means a ton to the Vikings, and it’s not like playing in a dome is going to bother them all that much. Daunte Culpepper can’t feel good about going up against that defensive front. They cause lots of injuries and get after quarterbacks like it’s their job. And it is. I expect the Vikings to win by 21-28 points. It will be that bad. The Vikings only won by 2 last time out, and that game should have been the Lions only win, and I’m being dead honest. But this game will be different, you can bet on that. (Okay, here it goes, a few minutes after finishing my write-ups and publishing them, I saw that the defensive tackle Williams guys won’t be suiting up for the remainder of the season. Don’t worry, I’m not off of this game, I’ll hold true to my 9, because, well, that’s the way it goes. My advice is to wait on this game though. With those guys out it might come down to 7 points – and I like the Vikings even more at that price. Good luck, but remember, the Vikes just lost 2 All-Pro players, two of the best players on their team, and they play the same position. Somebody will step up for the Vikes, but it’s just a lucky week to have the Lions.)
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5): The Texans are 1-5 on the road, with their one win coming against a Cleveland Browns team that finds ways to lose football games. I like the Texans, I think they are a talented team with a bright future, and if they could just get over their road woes and turnover happy quarterbacking, they could be a pretty good team. But the Packers know how to make the most out of turnovers and special teams blunders, and that should be the difference on Sunday. I imagine it will be cold and miserable in Green Bay, and that doesn’t bode will for the Houston Texans chances on the road. The Texans will be coming of the high of a Monday Night Football win in front of everyone, and that, going along with the short week, will probably get them down a little bit. Green Bay is a pretty complete team (besides their rush defense) and I think they have a nice advantage over the Texans because Houston hasn’t beat a complete team all year long. Jacksonville, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami – the Dolphins are easily the best of those five, but not one of those teams strong on offense and defense. The Packers make big plays defensively, and while they give up a lot of yards, it will be those big plays that get them a double digit home win over Houston.
Cincinnati Bengals (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts: The Bengals are winless on the road this season, but then again they have one single win, so that’s almost a given. The Bengals have actually played some pretty tough games. They were outmatched by Baltimore’s defense, but all in all they played pretty well against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville – and that’s three of the last four games. The Colts don’t have a stellar defense, and Indy has found ways to play tight with many teams this year, (they’ve won one single game by more than 6 points. I know the Bengals are bad, but it’s not like Indy has been at the top of their game either. Sure, they’ve won 5 straight, but in the last two they won by 3 and 4 disrespectively against teams like San Diego and Cleveland. Not only that, but they should have lost last week to the Browns – you know how I feel about taking teams that should have lost.
Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Saints have given up 20 or more points in every single game they’ve played in this season. When the Falcons have scored at lest 20 points, they are 8-1 (they lost one game scoring 20 against Denver). I haven’t bought in to the Falcons much, and they’ve been killing me because of it. I’m still not completely sure about them, I’m a stubborn bastard, but if you know one thing, you know I don’t think too much of the Saints. Atlanta is the much tougher team and that keeps Drew Brees off the field. This game should be a tight one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints pulled out with a split of this season series, but the side to play is Atlanta, especially with that extra half point.
Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ New York Giants: I’d love to take the Giants again – they are a very good football team. But I found +9 on Monday Night, and the Eagles have too much talent to get killed in this game. They also consistently play tight with good football teams, and who knows, maybe they figured it out after Thanksgiving’s destruction of Arizona. I know the Giants don’t have those 3 days of extra rest like Philly, and I know they will be even more exhausted after the Plaxico fiasco. The Giants have been playing great football, but they should come down off their high horse a little against the Eagles. I’ll take the Eagles and 9.
Cleveland Browns (+15) @ Tennessee Titans: I like the Titans to win this game, but coming off a huge win against the worst team in the league, they might be a little bit full of themselves coming home to play a flailing Browns team. The Titans are the better team, no doubt, but they play a lot of close games, and the Browns run defense can be pretty good. Going up against one of the league’s best, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a spirited performance out of that group, and I doubt Cleveland will take a lot of chances with Ken Dorsey at the helm. Less chances means less mistakes, and that’s good when you’re playing the Titans. Tennessee grinds it out, and that means they need help to outscore their opponents by more than two touchdowns. Now I’ve seen some shady tackling out of the Browns this year, but I’ve also seen some well played football. They played well enough defensively to keep Peyton Manning struggling all game long, he looked as bad as I’ve seen him last week. Shaun Rodgers is a beast. I like the Browns and all those points.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (pk): After losing to the 49ers, I like the Bills to rebound. They sure haven’t played well lately, but neither have the Dolphins for that matter. For the same reason as those teams that play the Lions and then struggled, I think the Dolphins will hit the breaks after dabbling with the Rams. Miami couldn’t dominate a bad team once again, and their last 4 weeks have done more to make me question the Dolphins than to fall in love with them. 2 points wins at home against Seattle and Oakland are basically losses in my mind. Then they get crushed by Matt Cassel and the Patriots – and a 4 point win in St. Louis definitely puts up some red-flags. The Bills have really struggled, no doubt, but they played tight with the Jets, Patriots, Browns, killed the Chiefs, and pissed away their game against the Niners. Even if Edwards is out, I think Losman keeps the field open for their running game. Look for Lee Evans to get lost in the Dolphins secondary and end up in the end zone once or twice.
Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: Unlike most teams, the Chiefs won’t abandon the run. And that factor will keep them in this game. The Broncos don’t like to play well against bad teams, that seems to be their season-long weakness, and I don’t think that changes in this game. The Chiefs have played good football over the last half of the season, losing big just once in their last 6 games. They only have 2 wins, I understand that, but their 6-6 ATS mark is an example of the way they’ve been playing. The Broncos are coming off a season high last week when they tortured the Jets secondary and won big in New York. Season highs are bound to be followed by less than stellar performances, look at the history of such outings. I’ll take the Chiefs.
New York Jets (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: I don’t see the value in San Francisco here. I like the 49ers – heck, I like them a lot. They’ve played good football lately, and honestly, they have a chance to cover this spread. But the chance isn’t that good in my opinion, and just about 100% of the public agrees with me. I probably wouldn’t play this game for too much out of the wallet, it has the makings of a huge upset. However, I think the Jets can do enough defensively to stymie the 49ers rushing attack. And putting all that pressure on Shaun Hill seems like a losing battle from SF’s perspective. New York should play better after getting embarrassed by the Broncos. My side is on that happening.
St. Louis Rams (+14) @ Arizona Cardinals: I sure hate the Rams, and I like the Cardinals, but Arizona hasn’t shown me that they are a two touchdown favorite type team. Steven Jackson is back, and he gives the Rams a little bit more of an identity. Orlando Pace might return as well, and he could give Bulger just enough time to score a couple times. I think Arizona will run the ball a little more than usual against the Rams, because St. Louis’s run defense is brutal, and that should cause for longer drives and less points. I’ll take the HUGE dog here.
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): A little too much Dallas love for me here. The Steelers are the better team. They aren’t as dinged, and if that’s not enough, they are just flat out better than the Cowboys. So, if a field goal wins it for me, I’ll take it with a smile.
New England Patriots (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks: The Patriots need to win to keep their playoff veins pumping blood. The Seahawks don’t need to do anything except continue to disappoint their lame-duck coach. I think Seattle is better than 2-9, but they aren’t as good as the Patriots – not at home, and certainly not when the prime time game was taken out of that National TV spotlight because they are so bad. If that’s not a confidence killer I don’t know what is. The Hawks got killed by Dallas, but prior to that they had played 3 straight solid games with close losses to Miami, Arizona, and Washington. I think New England will have the upper hand in this one, even with the extra rest for Seattle, the Patriots should win by a touchdown.
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): I don’t know how the Redskins are going to score against the Ravens. Clinton Portis is the walking wounded, he hasn’t practiced in weeks, and the Redskins haven’t been all that good with him on the field in the first place. I like the Skins, but they don’t take enough chances down field, and Santana Moss has been ignored lately. Baltimore’s defense is awesome, but it’s their offense doing enough that has me on their side. I don’t think the Redskins can hold Baltimore under 17 points, and I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than 10. That’s a cover in my book.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are a great team when they can run with ease. You can’t do that against the Bucs. Tampa Bay dominated the Panthers last time these two teams played, and while normally I’d like to look for the home and home split in this situation, I just don’t think this is a good match-up for the Panthers. Getting a half point more than a field goal makes me feel that much better, too. On Monday Night Football, I’m willing to bet the Bucs wily old vets do work and win this game on the road.
Plaxico Burress
I know Plaxico was having a tough year, getting suspended for a game, causing some drama on a great team, being hurt and not being able to play this last week, but shooting yourself in the leg is no answer for those questions. No, but on a more serious note, why do this guy get cuffed when he’s headed into the jail? He turned himself in, has cameras everywhere, it’s not like he’s a real threat. I’m sorry, but i have a problem with cops or “law enforcement” taking these kind of precautions in this case. I also think things like this should be a little more private. Sure, I know Plaxico is accused of a crime, but there’s no reason for every New York camera crew to be allowed to film this guy getting taken into custody. What a joke. I mean, people that are thinking and using their intelligence don’t shoot themselves in the leg, but what happened to a little privacy? He didn’t accidentally shoot someone else, or even worse didn’t purposefully shoot someone. He shot himself, right in the legs that helped get him the millions of dollars that he makes. Is it okay that he had an illegal gun? Hell no. No rich person in the US should ever be caught with an illegal firearm. They are rich enough to get one legally, and having one illegally is just plain laziness. But please, stop treating the situation like Plax is a murderer and start treating it like he’s a dumb ass. And as for Antonio Pierce – I’m a citizen that follows the laws, no doubt about it, but if my good buddy shot himself in the leg with an illegal pistol, I would probably try to hide it for him, and I would definitely do my best to get him to a safe place and keep him out of as much trouble as possible. But nobody seems to understand that. Don’t be an idiot, think like a good friend, and if you wouldn’t do the same, you aren’t a good friend.
Three for Thursday
Here are some interesting numbers I found while rummaging around the NFL’s elite and, well, not so elite teams…
1. The Chiefs give up how many rushing yards per game? Oh, just 182.4 yards per contest – on the ground. Good lord, you’d think that this team would be better than that after adding Glenn Dorsey, but that’s just not the case. I guess they did lose one of the best defensive ends in football, but this is getting downright piss poor. To put that into perspective, The Ravens allow almost 1/3 of that offensive rushing total. Not only do the Chiefs give up 180+ per game, but they allow 5.4 yards per rush, which is amazing. That’s .3 yards per run more than the TERRIBLE Denver Broncos attack. LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON!!! Come on down… The Chargers play KC this week, and LT is just starting to look healthy.
2. There are three defenses allowing 3.1 yards per carry or less – and that’s unheard of. The Ravens (2.8), the Vikings (3.0), the Steelers (2.9), and the Jets (3.1), have all been doing work this year against opposing defense. It’s pretty amazing when defenses don’t give up a first down (based on yardage) for every three rushing attempts by their opponents. I woudl still rank these defenses Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Jets – and this is why. The Ravens have given up one rushing score this season… ONE. That’s tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – and better than everyone else in the league. Not only that, but the Ravens are also 4th against the pass, and have just as many interceptions (10) as they have touchdowns given up – that said, they have given up just 11 offensive scores this year. And while that is awesome, it is slightly less impressive than the Steelers. You’ve seen Big Ben and the Steelers offense struggle this year, getting sacked early and often, and getting their fair share of three and outs – but that’s okay because the Steel Curtain is back. Pittsburgh has allowed 3 rushing touchdowns and 6 passing scores – that’s 9. Pittsburgh is 6-2. That’s just over 1 score per game. Not only that, but because of their impossible schedule (well not so impossible for them) they have had more defensive snaps than the Ravens. Giving up just 14.5 points per game, the Steelers are the real deal, and ranked 1st overall in pass defense – and a sacking machine. As for the Vikings over the Jets, run defense might give the Vikes a slight edge, but they are a little better against the pass as well. The Vikes get a bad wrap for their shoddy secondary play, but the Jets have allowed more yards and more scores – interesting.
3. Here’s a few more interesting numbers from around the league: the Titans have more than three times as many interceptions as they’ve allowed passing touchdowns – 13 picks and only 4 TDs and they also allow a league low 12.9 points per contest. Stingy. The Cardinals have allowed 16 passing touchdowns this year (6 to Brett Favre, sure, but even without Brett’s historic game the Cards would have allowed more touchdowns through the air than 12 other teams). The leagues most stingy scoring defense? The Colts – they’ve given up just 2 passing scores this year – but then again, that might be because teams just run the ball on them (146 yards per game and 10 rushing scores this year). The Oakland Raiders convert on 3rd down less than 25% of the time – only one other team is below 30% (the Lions at 28%) – Three and OUT here we come! Is this stat telling? The Titans have a league best +10 turnover ration – the Denver Broncos have one of the easiest schedules in the league, and are really stumbling lately – they are -11. The Titans are the best and the Broncos are the worst. Keep throwing the rock Splinter!!! Idiot. Which team has more pass completions than any other? Arizona? Nope – tied with another team for 2nd with 210, but nope. New Orleans? Drew has been great, but not quite – they have 210 as well. Try the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I know I never would have thought. Everything being considered though, the Bucs are on bye while the Saints and Cardinals will pass them up this week. Last, but not least – the Giants have the best yard per carry average in the league, and are the only team getting more than 4.7 yards per rush – that being said, they average half a yard more per carry than any other team in the league. 5.2 yards per tote. Amazing. What else? They do it with consistency. Their longest rush is 44 yards, over half the league has broken one longer than that.
Free NFL Picks: Week 10
I must say, getting 9 in week 9 makes me happy, and anywhere after Week 8, that same kind of deal would be well worth my time – 7 in 7, 6 wins in 6, etc, those aren’t too exciting and would probably have you guys going against me in no time. But this week is Week 10, and how better to follow up my Week 9 mirror than to bust out double digits in Week 10, the last bye riddled week of the season… I’ll take more than 10, certainly, but with 10-4 as my aim, we’ll see if I can’t manage another good week going forward.
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3): The Browns got all antsy thinking they were going to win last week, got scared like a deer in headlights, and all of a sudden their girdles were soiled and the team manager had a big laundry mess to clean up. But that’s okay, because they played tough football for much of the game, kind of like they’ve done for much of the year. I know wins and losses are a pretty big deal in sports, but they really shouldn’t be for a gambler. Not a sports gambler anyway – because here, you don’t need your team to win to actually win, and if your team wins, you might still lose. Like Gloria from “White Men Can’t Jump” once said, “Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes you don’t win or lose but you tie” or something like that. Anyway, what I’m getting at here is that Cleveland is 3-5 but they are 5-3 ATS, and why is that? Because they play hard. And against Denver, playing hard translates into covering spreads, well pretty much anything against Denver translates into covering spreads. If you’re worried about the quarterbacking change, I wouldn’t be – Derek Anderson’s completion deficiencies won’t be there with Quinn, and thus the tempo of the game should move much nicer for Cleveland. Better comp percentages get receivers more involved and it gives running backs more carries, and everything is happier. I think Quinn gives this Browns team a boost, or at least enough zip to take advantage of one of the league’s worst defenses. Denver has yet to win on the road (outside of Week 1 in Oakland, and lets be honest, any team run by Al Davis doesn’t count towards anything worthy of acknowledgement).
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions: I’m taking the Jaguars as a touchdown favorite (or a touchdown gets me the win) because Detroit has played better than they are over the last few weeks, and the Jaguars have played like garbage during that time. Detroit has been bad at home, and why not? everyone watching their home games thinks they are going to lose before the opening kickoff, that’s not a home field advantage, that’s a kick in the goat. Jacksonville has been impossible to figure out, but you have to think that they get it together one of these weeks, I’m thinking one of these weeks is this week. Some other things I like on Jacksonville’s side – they seem to play well against teams with less than solid rushing attacks, and despite Kevin Smith’s solid yards per carry and decent play of late, you can definitely lump the Lions in with the “bad running game” crowd. Indy, Denver, and Houston – all can pass pretty well, and all use the run to set up the pass, but they are definitely pass reliant teams – the Jags got wins in against all three. The one thing I like about the Lions, the thing keeping me from betting some big bucks on this game; Detroit has yet to win one. Every week it gets harder to beat a team that hasn’t won a game. Nobody wants to lose them all, nobody wants to be that team – that can play a roll for sure. Still, my numbers favor the Jags in Detroit – so I’ll make them my pick here.
Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears: Tennessee on the road against a tough Chicago team, sure, looks like it could be their first loss. And then you see that Orton is out for a month and Sexy Rexy is the guy going up against one of the toughest defenses in football. Oh, and the Titans can run on the Bears because the Bears defense isn’t quite as gnarly as you think they are – aside from the Colts Week 1 shut down, and the first meeting with the Lions, the Bears have given up at least 20 points every other game of the season. I see this one as a sure thing Titans win as the Bears won’t score 20 against Tennessee.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-3.5): I know this isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots, and these aren’t J.P. Losman’s Bills, but New England hasn’t lost to Buffalo since 2003 – What was going on in 2003 last time Buffalo got a W against New England? Well, Tara Reid might have been considered good looking, Matt Ryan was playing high school football somewhere, and this great country was just about to give President George W. Bush one more run and complete destruction… That’s a while ago. If you do the math, carry the three, that’s 9 straight wins for the Pats. But Buffalo is better this year, no doubt bout that, so I’ll look for some more conclusive evidence one way or another. The Pats have one loss at home this year, to Miami in the day Ronnie Brown ruled the earth, but I’m not ever sold based solely on homefield business. I need some more. I pointed out last week that New England plays pretty well against teams that do one thing well (either pass or run), but the Bills seem to do both things with some success, so I have no push there. The Patriots should have won last week against the Colts, but a couple dropped passes (Gaffney’s for sure) and that ultimate dump penalty late (thank you Dave Thomas, now get back to pimping Wendy) gave the game to the Colts. I still think Matt Cassel is playing good enough football, and the Bills are coming back to reality a bit. Buffalo’s only “good” win came against a 3-5 San Diego team. That’s right, 5 wins, one of them at home against San Diego – the other four against St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. You sold on the Bills on the road against a Patriots team that just lost a game they should have won? Me neither. I’ll take the Pats.
Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: This is a game I don’t like. Don’t bet your savings on this, please. But if you are looking for a lean, I’m taking the Ravens because they have yet to lose to anybody bad, or mediocre (which is what I think the Texans are). I do think the Ravens have a little trouble with a good passing attack. Their five wins all come against teams that don’t throw the ball real well, Cleveland (twice) and the second time it took some 4th quarter heroics, Oakland (come on, right?), Miami (solid but not a great passing team by any means), and Cincinnati – yes, the Bungles. Indy, Pittsburgh, and a tough loss to Tennessee by three points. The thing is, they haven’t really beaten anybody good, but they haven’t lost to anybody that isn’t “good”. They are 5-3 and basically beat the teams they are equal to or better than, and lose to teams they aren’t (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Indy). This one just gets really close to me. I like to think the Ravens will have some trouble with Sage Rosenfels. The guy is legit, the best back-up in the league, and if the Texans lose anything with Schaub out, it’s very little. I think Sage gives the Texans a little boost – but I don’t know if it makes them good enough to take down Baltimore. This game is a toss up to me, one of the few 50-50’s I see. So I’m taking the point and the better defense – that’s the best I can do.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+1): Atlanta played great football last week and absolutely controlled the clock in Oakland. This week they go back home where they have yet to lose a football game all year long. On the other hand, Drew Brees and company should be as healthy as they’ve been since the season started, and they are coming off a bye (giving the most accurate passer in the league two weeks to prepare for a pretty mediocre secondary) – but that only makes this game high scoring, it doesn’t give the Saints the upper hand. The Falcons still aren’t getting enough credit, and let me tell you, that’s only going to help Mike Smith get his team ready for this week’s game. I like the Falcons to continue to surprise, beating the all powerful New Orleans Saints. I said before that Atlanta is undefeated at home, well the Saints are completely defeated on the road. I can’t imagine that holds up all year, in both cases, but it’s something to look at. The Falcons have had a consistent pass attack this season, a rushing attack that exploits the bottom half of NFL defenses, and more physicality on both lines. They should be favored at home and I’m betting that way. New Orleans is solid, but they don’t scare me much. I don’t want to hear that New Orleans has won each of the last 4 meetings, or anything about the past between these teams – this is not Bobby Patrino’s Falcons team, and Mike Vick isn’t lacing them up on Sunday either. Atlanta has only lost games to good run defenses, and only on the road. Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Philadelphia – that’s it, and the Saints don’t have a defense like those guys. New Orleans also has a little trouble with solid rushing attacks – though they’ve been better against the run this year, the Panthers dominated them via the run and so did Washington back in Week 2. The Chargers lost, but LT went crazy in England against the Saints as well. Those are the odds I’m stacking up – don’t sell the Falcons short, pick them in this one.
St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-8): This is a tough one, because the Jets rarely seem to play well – ha. Brett and the Jets aren’t playing well lately, I don’t care if they’ve won two straight, offensively they aren’t getting it done. Thomas Jones just needs to get the ball more, that seems to be obvious. Lesses chances taken by Brett means less turnovers and more ball control by the Jets. You’d think they could take full advantage of that this week as they go up against a Rams defense that allows 156 rushing yards per game, but they haven’t done that against bad rushing defenses this year. Over the last three weeks prior to their win over Buffalo, the Jets snuck by the Bengals, lost to Oakland, and needed a last minute drive to take out the Chiefs in New York. In all three of those games, Thomas Jones didn’t get the ball enough, and Brett’s mistakes killed them. That being said, you’d have to think the Jets are realizing this, and St. Louis is really bad against the run. Thomas Jones needs to get 20 carries in this game. If he does that, they win for sure. I also have to see this from the Rams side, and they have been TERRIBLE against good run defenses. They got destroyed by Arizona last week, and the same goes for earlier games against Buffalo, the Giants, and the Eagles – all of which shut down the run really well. Steven Jackson is hurting, and while he did play last week, he just didn’t look right. The Jets are very good against the run. Lets put it this way, Steven Jackson goes into a hole, Kris Jenkins is there waiting – I have my money on Big Kris.
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9): Boy, the Hawks are bad, but are they 9 point dogs in Miami bad? That’s the big question I have to answer here – so here goes the discovering. I know Seattle got tormented by Donovan and the Eagles last week, but I’m not so sure Chad and the Dolphins have the offensive prowess that the Eagles bring to the table week in and week out. The Dolphins don’t have many consistencies in wins and losses, not that I can see anyway. They seem to struggle against strong run defenses, the Jets in Week 1, the Cardinals in Week 2, and the Ravens in Week 7 – but they took down Buffalo two weeks ago, so it’s not an always thing. The Hawks aren’t a good run defense, but they aren’t bad either. Despite losing the time of possession battle in almost every single game they’ve played so far this year (winning that only once, against the Rams in Week 3 and being destroyed almost every other week) the Hawks don’t give up a great YPC average on the ground. They held Brian Westbrook to just 60 yards on 20 carries, and held the Eagles to 72 rushing yards on 28 totes. Then again, I doubt if the Hawks will be able to run against Miami, as the Dolphins allow less than 90 yards on the ground per game. The Hawks don’t have a potent pass rush without Kerney rushing the quarterback, and it’s a big question if he’ll play. Lofa didn’t play last week, and is still hurting (obviously). This list of injuries is endless for the Hawks, and they are all important guys. Linemen, starting quarterback, defensive MVP from a year ago, big play receivers – I just don’t think the Hawks can win against a physical team. Miami can do everything pretty well. Seneca Wallace is okay, but he hasn’t been able to test defenses. Take away his 90 yarder to Koren Robinson on a broken play to start the game, he only has 70 yards passing on Sunday against Philly. Two short throws to his FB against the 49ers last week go for 100+ yards, without those he has just 120 yards passing with no touchdowns. I like the kid, but with this injury riddled offense, he’s a sitting duck out there, and Miami’s toughness up front will take advantage. The Hawks also fly across the country to play at 10 am their time. I have to take the Dolphins here.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: I just think Green Bay is much better than Minnesota – but is it that simple? Good question. Probably not, so here’s some stuff to back up my pick. In their last meeting (earlier this year), the Vikings needed thirteen 4th quarter points to make this game respectable. I know that in Green Bay’s 4 losses, 3 come against pretty solid run defenses (Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee last week) – but Green Bay has been running better and better of late, and I think they can do some work against the Vikings run defense. Green Bay has played solid football all year, really. They are 4-4, but they’ve played good football. You’d think Aaron Rodgers would absolutely pick apart the Vikings secondary. They may have played better last week, the Vikings, but they still gave up 350+ yards of passing offense to the Texans. The Packers are definitely still hurting (actually hurting, injuries and such), but they are getting healthier. Ryan Grant is looking more and more like the guy that crushed defenses late last season, and some defensive backs that have been playing through injuries are getting healthier. The Vikings will still be able to run at home against Green Bay, but I don’t think it will be enough to take out the Packers. The Vikings have a lot of trouble against teams that can throw – the Packers can definitely wing it. Another thing, don’t be fooled by the Vikings 3-1 home record – Detroit and Houston aren’t great wins, and the Vikings are a perfect defensive match-up to stop the Panthers. Those are their 3 home wins. Green Bay is almost made to beat the Vikes.
Carolina Panthers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: I know 9 is a lot to give, especially on the road, but you’ve heard me say it before, and I firmly believe that if the Panthers can run the ball (meaning if they are playing against a mediocre to poor run defense) they are one of the best teams in football. They can run with ease against Oakland. It may be nine, and the Raiders are coming off one of the worst football performances since last week’s WSU Cougar game, but I like the Panthers a lot here. I like them before the Raiders were held to basically nothing against a porous Atlanta defense, and I still like the Panthers, even at this spread that’s slightly inflated.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This game is still off everywhere, and I don’t know which way I’d go because the spread is pretty important. I’ve seen things like -3 and -7 both for Pittsburgh. Honestly, I see the Steelers winning, running the ball about 60% of the time, maybe more, and just pounding the Colts. Plus, there is no statistical defense better than Pittsburgh right now, and it’s not all stats either. If you’ve watched these guys, you see a defense that just doesn’t give up anything. Less than 3 yards per carry, 9 passing and rushing touchdowns combined, more sacks than anyone in the league. For a Colts team that has struggled to keep Manning as clean as usual, you’d think the Steelers are poised to take this one. At -3 I’d take the Steelers – at -7 I’m not so sure. I’m not counting this game this week, still no odds and it’s Friday – but I just wanted to let you guys know what I was thinking in case you needed some input. Good luck.
Kansas City Chiefs (+15) @ San Diego Chargers: Tyler Thigpen? I have to take the Chiefs getting more than two touchdowns against a Charger team that has one win by more than 14 all season long. The Chiefs are bad, but they aren’t Oakland bad… Regardless of talent, these teams always play each other tough, it’s just the way it is. In fact, not one game in the last 10 meetings has the winner won by more than two touchdowns. Not once. The Chiefs have played better football at home this season (which is the norm for them over the years) while getting blown out in two of their three road games, but this game is always close. And the Chiefs have a little bit of a youth movement that is looking good over the last couple weeks. I see a little confidence from them at least – there’s no doubt about that. San Diego hasn’t done much for me, and defensively they just aren’t strong. They have a new defensive coordinator, and he’s solid, but it will be interesting to see if he can get it done right off the bat. They play well at times, and go 3-5 at others – the Chargers are tough to read. I know they need this win, and they should be playing this game like their season depends on it, because it means a lot, but I think Thigpen and the Chiefs offense does enough to stay within two scores. So I’ll be going with the Chiefs this week.
New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: A big Sunday Nighter… Both teams are coming off three straight wins, and even I’m starting to become a believe in the New York Football Giants. (I just threw up a little bit just thinking about that). Both teams have a couple of easy wins sandwiched around a tough game they pulled out. Both teams have beaten Pittsburgh this year, and while the Eagles have three losses (Washington, Chicago, Dallas) – the Giants have just one (Cleveland). The Eagles three losses all come by less than a touchdown. The Browns killed the Giants on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago. I’m hoping with all my might that the Eagles come out victorious in this one, but there’s one big thing moving me toward the Giants, and it’s not defensive pressure. It’s that run game in New York. The Giants have run on everyone – let me clear that up a bit, everyone except Pittsburgh. Even in their big loss to Cleveland, the Giants rushed for 181 yards. In the Eagles three losses, two of them came to teams that ran the ball well against their aggressive defense. Washington gave the ball to Clinton Portis and watched him torch the Eagles, and it was Marion Barber (though he only rushed for 61 yards) that gave the Cowboys enough of a threat to sneak out a win over Philly. The Eagles are very good, no doubt about that, but if the Giants can run the ball, the Eagles blitzing schemes get neutralized a bit – that should give New York the edge. And there’s always Plaxico Burress. Plax has torched the Eagles many a time, and he’s gotten the better of Asante Samuel as well – the Eagles will have their eye on the big wideout, but that might not matter.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9): Arizona hasn’t lost to a bad team this year, and they’ve beaten some pretty solid teams. They shut the run down well. San Francisco is coming off a bye, and there is a good chance that they come out very motivated after an interesting couple weeks since the beginning of Mike Singletary (my hero). I also think Shaun Hill gives the Niners a better chance to win. He’s more accurate and he’s not as risky, something San Francisco really needs. Still, the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFC. They have a more potent rushing attack with Tim Hightower’s youthful exuberance toting the rock, and they have a passing attack that can put points up on anyone. The more they run against the Niners, the better. I hate to roll with the public here, but I can’t be on San Francisco with so many questions in the air. I’m making my wager small enough to be tricked and not lose sleep, but I also don’t want to trick myself into a silly wager. Take the good team against the bad team – Arizona has four double digit wins so far this season – San Francisco has 5 double digit losses. Take that for what it’s worth, but the Cardinals by 10 looks good enough to me.
Free NFL Picks: Week 9
Week 8 gave me one of my few losing records of the year, but there were some crazy things that went down to get me in the gotcha. This week there are some games I fancy, and some I am just barely leaning one way or the other. Like always, I’ll let you know.
New York Jets (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: This is an interesting one. The Bills haven’t won a game against a good run defense yet this year. Seriously, Arizona and Miami are both solid run defenses – the Bills have two losses, one loss in Miami, one loss in Arizona. They are undefeated at home this season, against the spread as well. The Jets gave the ball to the Chiefs numerous times and still came out on top last week, but they were playing the Chiefs. I understand that the only road win New York has this year was in Miami in Week 1, and they got beat by Oakland last time they went traveling (gag reflex there). All that being said, I like that the Jets can stop the run (4th in the league with just over 80 yards given up per game) – and I like how that corilates with the trouble Buffalo has had with defenses that make running tough sledding. So, I’ll take the Jets and all 6 of those points in this divisional “HUGE” game.
Detroit Lions (+14) @ Chicago Bears: The Lions have played better on the road than at home, they are getting 14 points at 5 Dimes. Orlovsky has proven to be a decent option, and Calvin Johnson is borderline unguardable. I like the Bears to win this game, and bring the Lions to 0-8 during the first half of the season (probably not winning 10 games like Jon Kitna says, just my observation, but who knows). However, I do like Detroit to play better than a two touchdown dog to a Bears team that definitely has flaws on either side of the ball. The Bears should no be favored by two scores against anyone in the league.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Fitzpatrick complete’s just about 60% of his passes, he has 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, he is heading up a team that doesn’t believe in him, and it’s basically crushing news every time he comes onto the field because it’s a reminder that Carson is still out with an arm ouchy. Sounds like a recipe for success. On the other hand, the Jags just lost to the freaking Browns, at home, in a game that they needed to win. They are now 3-4, tied with the Colts and Texans and 4 games back of the Titans in their own division. They need to get things straight right away. Jacksonville has beaten the Bengals in 9 out of the 10 times these two teams have played since 1998. The Jags are 7-2-1 ATS over that time period. I’m not one for history calling the shots, but there’s lots of things working against the Bengals here, not to mention the Jags just lost a big game at home, and they are 2-1 on the road this season with wins in Denver and Indianapolis. Yeah, I like the Jaguars by 10 in this one for a small wager.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (PK): I don’t know what to think about Cleveland except I think they are just about as good as the Ravens, they are at home, they will likely be a .500 team this year, and this game would split the season series with Baltimore. I like all those things working in my favor here, and I see both teams being 4-4 after Week 9’s action.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs can’t run and they only put up a reasonable fight if teams hand them turnovers like free cans of spam at the light house mission. Jeff Garcia won’t be doing that this week in KC, especially not after getting beat by a hapless Dallas team. I expect a lot of running game action this time around, and that’s not coming from KC. Tyler Thigpen’s chances of building off last week’s big game look really bad, as the Bucs will key in on the young quarterback. Tampa is a lot better than they were last week and the Chiefs are a lot worse – in that match-up I’ll always take the Bucs side.
Houston Texans (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Hmmm… Really good passing offense versus a really bad secondary. Vikings are coming off a bye week going head to head at home against the Texans team that is winners of three straight… But all home games. The Texans are Ofer on the road this season, and that’s not abnormal for the, they are historically a brutal road team. Minnesota hasn’t been playing well at all. They beat the Lions because of a TERRIBLE pass interference call. They beat the New Orleans Saints some how some way, I watched that game and I still can’t figure it out. It seemed like the Saints hammered the Vikes. They gave up 48 points (a lot via the secondary and such) to the Bears and lost that game. They’ve basically played like poo in their last four games are are 2-2 in those contests – so that’s one thing they have going for themselves. In the end, I think it’s Dunta Robinson’s recent return that pays dividends for the Texans in their first road win of the year, a big upset. With another corner that can lock down defenders, the Texans can use their safeties to help against the run, and that should be just enough for them to cover.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams: The Cardinals are a bad road team. They have been for a long time, and that trend doesn’t seem to be changing much this season in terms of their win/loss record (1-3). However, you have to consider their competition and how they’ve played on the road as well, because close losses to good teams need to look better than close wins against bad teams (at least to the bettor). The Cardinals lost road games to Washington, the Jets, and the Carolina Panthers last week. Except for the offensive blow-up by Brett Favre and the Jets (6 TDs for the old man), the Cards have played tight with their solid opponents, losing by a touchdown in Washington and by just 4 in Carolina (covering the spread last week). The Rams, on the other hand, have to be considered a new team since Jim Haslet took over because they’ve played much different. They ousted the Redskins in Washington, then slapped around a injury decimated Cowboys team two weeks ago at home. Last week they lost in New England, but without Steven Jackson, and the game was tight late (they covered). Still, I think the Cardinals are that much better than the Rams, and while Arizona is used to losing and falling apart when it matters most, I have to believe that they win this week in St. Louis. At -2.5, a field goal win still gets me a W, and thus I’ll be making a small play on the favored road Cardinals here.
Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I would stay away from this line. That’s my suggestion. That being said, I like the Titans by 3 in this one. Their defense is too good, but Aaron Rodgers has one heck of a cannon, and that will test the Titans secondary. Green Bay hasn’t been able to run all year, their yards per carry is gross, and the Titans won’t help that stat improve. Kerry Collins doesn’t do enough to test the Packers secondary woes, but Green Bay’s run defense is basically piss this season. The Titans run with passion and efficiency. And they are absolutely committed to the run as well. The Packers are coming off a bye, and a first hand look at how the Titans secondary can be attacked, as Manning did a nice job in the first half last last Monday Night. There’s lots of things working every which way in this one, and the fact that Tennessee is 7-0 doesn’t help their cause in my book either. Nobody goes undefeated, remember that. The Titans are coming off a little bit of a short week, they are heavily favored, and they have yet to lose. Am I saying Green Bay pulls the upset? No, but there’s a chance. This is just a tough one for me, for the obvious reasons that I listed. Despite the records (4-3 to 7-0) I think these teams are fairly close in ability. I’m taking the Packers here, but you have my advice on betting this game.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: The Denver secondary was bad with Champ Bailey locking down one side, I can’t imagine how pathetic they’ll be without him for the next 6 weeks. They can’t put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, can’t even get close to stopping the run, and their offense relies almost solely on the passing game – which always puts a team at risk. MIami has played decent on the road, sans one bad loss to Arizona. They were up on Houston, and if it weren’t for some last minute heroics by Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub, they would have won there. They smoked New England in Week 3. Three of their losses came to great run defenses, Arizona, the Jets, and Baltimore – and believe me when I say that Denver doesn’t belong in that group. I think Denver will put up points, and it’s possible that they jump up early and leave the Dolphins trying to do too much, but I have a feeling that Miami’s run-based attack and precision passing should keep the time of possession in their favor. That might be just enough for a big upset on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-8): Too much defensive pressure by the Giants will absolutely make Brad Johnson a sitting duck. The Giants are too tough against the run to allow Marion Barber much room to explode. Dallas played better defensively last week, but honestly, their offense didn’t play well enough for them to win. Dallas got some really bad calls falling in their favor, and that got them over the hump. I don’t like the Giants all that much, and unlike a lot of big names out there I don’t think they are underrated, quite the opposite. I just think that Dallas got beat last week and won the game – I never like that. I also don’t like the Cowboys offense at all right now. New York should win this one in the 24-10 range.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders: Looking at it from way up here I see a Falcons team that is 1-3 on the road (though their tough road losses came against Philly, Carolina, and Tampa Bay – all solid squads). I see a Raider team that plays pretty well at home, beating the Jets two weeks ago, and playing really tight with San Diego before a late score put the Chargers up 10. The Falcons are 4-3, and they’ve beat some solid teams (Green Bay in Wisconsin) and Chicago two weeks ago at home, by 3 and 2 points respectively. The Raiders don’t stop the run well and don’t create many turnovers on defense. The Falcons only seem to get in trouble when their youth gets the best of them. I also like the Falcons more than the Raiders. This is a very tough one for me, but I’ll have to lean toward Atlanta. They’ve been solid when they can run, and the Raiders will let Mike Turner run. Oakland is not physical up front, and I think Matt Ryan can be effective enough to douse the Raider secondary. I’d stay away from this game, but with all things considered, it looks like Atlanta by a field goal.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: I know it doesn’t look like the “sharp” bet here, as just about 75% of the public is taking the Eagles, but I can’t see another side. The Seahawks got two 50 yard touchdown catches from Leonard Weaver of all people. Those were Seneca Wallace’s only touchdown passes and almost half of his total passing yardage. Seattle’s defense still doesn’t do enough to disrupt a good offense, and the Eagles (with Brian Westbrook) have one of the most efficient and mistake free units in the league. The Hawks may be without Lofa Tatupu, and that would be a huge hit. The Hawks may have killed a disfunctional 49er team last week, and no win is easy in the NFL, but I see things coming a lot tougher for the Hawks in this one. The Hawks have 2 wins, to the great 49ers last week (after losing to them once already) and to the tough and gritty St. Louis Rams prior to Haslet taking over. They’ve been destroyed by “good” teams that they’ve played. Buffalo beat them by 24, the Giants ran over them by 38, the Packers only won by 10 – but it wasn’t that close – trust me, the Bucs also won by 10 – but that also wasn’t even close. I hate going with 75% of the public, but 6.5 looks nice from my pedestal.
New England Patriots (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: Call me nuts, but both of these teams are up and down so much that I can’t quite figure them out. New England is 5-2 and the Colts are 3-4, but they are eerily similar. Indy actually played pretty well on Monday Night, flailing like lemmings in the 4th quarter, but solid for the first three frames. New England barely took out a bottom tier St. Louis Rams team that was playing without their best player, Steven Jackson. But I see an advantage for the Patriots in Indy. Weird. The Pats have done solid work against teams that don’t have strong rushing attacks. The Chiefs, Jets, 49ers (only because Mike Martz is a tool), and Denver. Those are all wins for the Pats, and all teams that can’t find a consistent rushing attack. Their losses came to San Diego (a team you must respect on the ground) and MIami (Ronnie Brown went nuts on the Pats). Indy doesn’t have Addai, and even when they have had him, their run game has been blah this season. If the Pats can focus on one aspect, the pass or run, their defense is stronger. You know what is also weird here? Matt Cassel and Peyton Manning have disturbingly similar numbers. Matt’s 66% completion percentage is better than Manning’s 61% – Cassel gets 6.84 yards per attempt while Manning has 6.62. Cassel has thrown just 7 touchdowns to Manning’s 10, but he only has 6 picks to Manning’s 9. Cassel has a 6 point QB Rating advantage as well. Anyway, I’m not saying they’re the same guy, I’m just saying you should lay off killing Matt for his shortcomings, the kid is throwing pretty well.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (-1): This one is tough for me because Jason Taylor is out for sure, and the Redskins are just dealing with a lot of ailments. I actually really liked the Redskins in this one at full health. Against teams I would consider good, Dallas and Philly and maybe even Arizona and New Orleans (though I don’t consider the Saints good, but you might) the Redskins are 4-0. On the other hand, PIttsburgh’s lone good win came against, I don’t know, Jacksonville? Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Houston? I like the Texans but can hardly consider them to be “good”. The Steelers lost to both the Giants and Eagles, and the Redskins will look to make that three in a row from the NFC East. There’s lots of love on the Steeler’s side right now, but I am taking the other half in this one. Take the Skins at home.
NFL Free Picks: Week 8
7-7 last week, and that looks like a push to me. You all know how I love pushes – ugh. Anyway, I didn’t lose any ground in the old win loss column, so things could have been worse. So far I have 13 games this week (Cowboys line not out yet) – check out the goods in my NFL Free Picks for Week 8. Good luck to all!
Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: Tough call for me, definitely. You all know what I think about the Raiders sans Lane Kiffin, but they played so well last week against the Jets. From what I see this game will be a defensive struggle, and I’m betting that 7 ends up being too much. I know the Ravens played a really good game against the Dolphins, and I don’t think either team is legit, but defense keeps this close.
Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Carolina Panthers: This is why. I love the Panthers, but only if they can run the ball effectively. I think the Cardinals will prove a tough opponent against Carolina’s ground game, and when that is the case, the Panthers are just average. I expected the Panthers to win the West, but I didn’t think they’d start the season 5-2… Now it’s looking so. The Panthers lost to Tampa and Minnesota – the Cards aren’t that good against the run, but they are solid.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Maybe the books know something I don’t. Don’t get me wrong, the Cowboys aren’t as bad as they played last week, and the Bucs let a bad Seahawk team hang around and they ended up losing that game ATS – still, no Tony Romo, no defensive backs, a defense that is playing soft – I think Tampa does enough against Brad Johnson to make it another tough day for America’s Team.
Washington Redskins (-7) @ Detroit Lions: Detroit lost by less than a touchdown in each of their last two ball games, and should have beat the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 6 – still, I don’t think they match up well with the Redskins, as Washington should run all over Detroit. Here’s some food for bet, the Lions are 0-2 at home, giving up 48 points to the Packers and losing 34-7 against the Bears.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): Key mistakes destroyed the Dolphins chances in Week 7. They didn’t play well overall, obviously a little frustrated by what happened in Week 6. I thin the Dolphins step back into the winners circle this week and the Bills go to 5-2. Miami has shown me that they are solid, and when they play mistake free football they can win tough games. Buffalo is a better match-up than Baltimore was, and I think they win this one at home.
St. Louis Rams (+8) @ New England Patriots: I think the Rams are a tough match-up for New England. Matt Cassel is prone to mistakes, he gets sacked a lot, the Rams defense is a completely different group now that Little is back in action at defensive end. The Rams have their running game exploding back to life and the whole team seems to have more confidence now that Haslett is the head guy. I don’t know what to think of the Patriots “one good, one bad” game situation they’ve been rocking, but they are on cue to play a bad one. That doesn’t mean jack to me, though, and this team is still a solid group. I just think all of their injuries start to catch up to them this week against the Rams. Tough call, but I’ll take the Rams with a little more than a TD.
San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints: These overseas games are always weird. Last year the Giants barely won in a gross game, and I don’t know what to expect this time around. I’d say go with the Chargers because of the injury woes attacking the Saints, and how Colston and Shockey obviously aren’t back to full health. Oh, and Bush is out. The Chargers will likely get back Chambers, and LT is getting healthier and healthier. Same with Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson has been really good, and Phillip Rivers is having a great season for the Chargers. Then again, this game is in another country. I’d stay away, but if you’re looking for an edge, I’d take the Chargers – I think they are 6 points better than the Chargers on your normal day.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-12.5): I like 12.5 I guess. Shoot, the Jets as a big favorite is scary, but I don’t see them playing like garbage after losing an OT game to the freaking Raiders. They are better than that, if still a little overrated. I don’t like the Chiefs without Larry Johnson (and who knows what’s happening there), Damon Huard (out), Brody Croyle (out), or even completely healthy. I think Thomas Jones will run all over the Chiefs and Tyler Thigpen must not be that great because the Chiefs seem to be exhausting all sporting options to pick up another quarterback. It’s never good to throw in a guy that hasn’t seen a playbook for your team, even if it’s a guy like Daunte Culpepper that is better than every single guy you’ve started all year long. Weird. J E T S – winners.
Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles haven’t won coming off a bye week since the ’04-’05 season. The Falcons can run the ball well and while the Eagles started off stingy against the run, they allowed 145 yards to Clinton Portis and 101 yards to Frank Gore – both having nice yards per carry. I don’t think Turner will burn the Eagles for big yardage, but he’ll do enough to keep Atlanta close, and remember, the Falcons are coming off of two weeks to prepare for Philly as well, and they’re a huge dog – they’ll need some help to win, but I think this will be close.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): The owners fined Winslow 250 grand for questioning the staph infections in the organization over the past few seasons. What a joke. The rest of the players have to think that’s a joke. The rest of the players also have to think that their season is on the line and that sitting one of their best offensive players is down right stupid. They’ve played one good game all season. Without all the crap going on with Cleveland, I might like them to cover here, but the Jags are coming off a bye and they’ve won 3 straight coming off a break. The Jags are without Matt Jones, but with Jerry Porter getting two weeks to get healthy, they might not be losing anything at all. Cleveland hasn’t looked good enough (sans one single game) for me to take them here. I don’t like this line, but I just can’t take that ridiculous organization – not a huge play, but a slight lean here.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-9.5): The Bengals are winless, and that’s scary because they are more talented than that. However, they lost probably their best linebacker for the season. Carson Palmer is not playing this week. Houston can’t mess around, as they saw what happens when they allowed Detroit right back in the game last week. Still, Houston is solid and they should run all over the Bengals. Take them to run away with this one.
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): The Steelers in Pittsburgh seems like a slam dunk at -2.5, yes, even against your World Champion New York Giants. Honestly, I think the Giants have played just as many mediocre to bad games as they have good games. Think about it – they couldn’t put away the Redskins in week 1, settling for field goals too often (mediocre). They played a terrible Rams team in Week 2, so you can’t tell much there. They barely beat the Bengals in OT – (mediocre to bad). They killed a terribly lost Seattle team, but played very well there. They lost to Cleveland in a laugher (bad). They let San Francisco hang around all day, even though the Niners were turnover machines (mediocre). Maybe they aren’t a shoe in for back to back titles after all, huh? I like Pittsburgh to show us that one more time this weekend.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): You’ve found my weak spot, Mike Singletary. That guy is my favorite player of all time – bar none. I think his intensity, honestly, and respect from his players gets the 49ers going in Week 8. They aren’t great, and they won’t be all year long, but they are going up against the Hawks in his first game as the main guy, and that’s enough for me. Seattle is brutal. Without a couple broken play runs late last week in Tampa, they would have been under 100 yards of offense – that’s a joke.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): The Titans should lose one coming up here, but I don’t think Bob Sanders is coming back this week – that pretty much ends the Colts hopes. Betting against Peyton Manning as more than a field goal favorite seems like a poor move, but I’m not betting against him. I’m betting against his offensive lines ability to slow the Titans rush and I’m definitely betting against the Colts defensive front shutting down the Titans run. I think 20 will win this one, and Tennessee can get that in their sleep against this Colts defense – just run the rock.