I’m back with my free picks. Absolutely free and I’m picking every single game every single week. Last season we tried something a little different and I just couldn’t fall in love with withholding my best picks so I’m just flinging them all out there for you see. I have a lot of road teams in week 1, and while I’m never a huge fan of that, I can’t fluctuate just because the road team looks good in Week 1. Every season is a new one and here’s to hoping this year is a great one. Follow along every week for my free picks… Enjoy the show!

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3): I don’t like the Giants, so don’t expect this pick to be indicative of my future picks – but how can you not like them to win the opener? Okay, so they lose Strahan and Osi is out for the season -that could definitely have a trickle down draining effect on what became a very good defense. They also lost Gibril Wilson (don’t care) and Kawika Mitchell (good player, but not great). They still have a very good set of corners and a talented offense all around the depth chart. The Redskins could become a solid unit later in the season, but early on I still expect them to make mistakes with their new systems. Jim Zorn is a good coach, and Jason Campbell should flourish under his tutelage, but Zorn is no miracle worker and the Skins should still struggle to find consistency. Osi’s absence won’t hurt the Giants against the run, which is where Washington holds most of their strength. Expect the Giants to grind one out to open the season, and get their first win of the season. I don’t think they’ll make it back to the playoffs, but a Week 1 home game as a 3 point favorite – I’ll take it.

Cincinnati Bengals  (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens: I really dislike both of these teams. I didn’t like either much to start with, but then I was basically forced to watch a couple of each team’s pre-season games. Gross. I would say that no team played worse than the Bengals during the pre-season, but I don’t think I could back that up if someone brought up the Ravens. Baltimore never scored more than 16 points in a pre-season game, and the offense seemed to get worse the longer they worked together – putting up 16, 15, 10, and 9 disrespectfully. The Bengals’ 1st team offense looked terrible in each of the three games they made appearances in. Carson Palmer looked lost and their was no timing or flow offensively. Chad Ocho Cinco got hurt, and TJ Houshmandzadeh never played. If I took totals I would roll with the under – but I’m picking sides here and the lesser of two evils is Cincinnati as a pick-em. The Bengals have taken the last three games in this match-up and 6 of their last 7 overall against the Ravens. I also like what Chris Perry brings to their offense – and I know he’s healthy to start this game. In a game where both teams should fight to score, I like the Bengals to win a battle or two.

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: I don’t care that Chad Pennington is playing his old team and really wants to stick it to them. I don’t care that the Jets don’t have a good defense and that their rushing attack sputtered all of last season. I don’t even care about Brett Favre joining the Jets. This is what I care about: The Jets weren’t a terrible team last season. They lost 12 games last season, sure, but seven of those losses came by a touchdown or less. That means they had something. Like I said, Brett’s addition hasn’t wooed me into taking the Jets, but Alan Faneca’s signing has sure helped. The Jets have a pretty good couple of young studs on the o-line, and now they have one of the top 3 guards in the NFL to help them grow. The Fins lost their best tackler (Zach Thomas), their best pass rusher (Jason Taylor), and they’re coming off a 15 loss season that almost made them famous. Yes sir, I don’t care that 70% of the public is on this game, I will be taking the Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs (+17) @ New England Patriots: Honestly, this comes down to two things. I know the Chiefs are going to pound the ball and run clock like it’s their freaking job. I also know that Tom Brady’s injury is worrying me. It’s like he never healed. He’s been sleeping with a gorgeous model and vacationing since his “best team ever” lost the Super Bowl to Little Eli’s Giants, and his ankle is still bothering him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he’ll play, but how important will it be for them to keep him in if the Pats are up two touchdowns late? I just don’t see it and I don’t see the Patriots doing everything they can to put up 50 points a game either. Take the Chiefs if you’re picking this game because there are so many ways the Chiefs can cover a 17 point spread, I don’t even know where to start. I also don’t like the fact that New England went ahead and picked up a bunch of cut-scraps from around the league. I’ve also decided that 17 point favorites aren’t a good value in pro-football. If you are a Patriotic believer, I advise you sit this one out – but if you’re willing to roll with the dog, the Chiefs look like a decent value on the road.

Houston Texans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Maybe it’s because I’m an old offensive guard, but I have a feeling that Alen Fanneca’s absence will hurt the Steelers just as much as his place in New York will help the Jets. You saw what happened to the Hawks rushing attack when Steve Hutchinson headed to Minnesota, and you saw what the Vikings run-game looked like with Steve manning the left guard spot. Look for the Steelers to be less of a running team than ever before. That will hurt them against a very good Texans pass-rush. And despite the Texans inability to acquire a sure-thing starting running back, I think their offense is a scary group. Schaub will only be better in his second season. Andre Johnson is an absolute best. Owen Daniels is a tough TE to guard. Kevin Walter proved his worth in the second half of last season. Jacoby Jones is talented. And honestly, I really like the duo of Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor – call me crazy, but I do. Pittsburgh has the toughest schedule in the NFL, and this is supposed to be one of their easiest games of the season – but it’s not going to be a pushover. I like the Texans to hold tough if not win outright in Pittsburgh – and that makes me love all those points. The one thing that has me questioning myself is the Texans on the road versus the Steelers at home. The Steelers only lost to the Jaguars in Pittsburgh last season, having their way with most other opponents. The Texans won just two games on the road, versus a bad Panthers team and an even worse Raiders team. They didn’t lose by less than 8 in any of their road losses. I’m not a lover of last years’ numbers, so I’m not changing my pick here – I’m just warning you readers.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+3): I like the Jaguars to finish the season strong and very possibly take the division from the Colts this year – but I’m not so sure how they’re going to fair in this contest. The Titans are a very tough defense that plays inspired at home. I know the Jaguars are solid, and they’ve looked very good in the pre-season compared to the Titans who have looked absent, but Tennessee as a 3 point dog at home against a beat up Jaguars offense? I can’t find any value in the Jaguars here, so the bet has to go with Tennessee.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons: This game isn’t going to be a blowout, but I don’t see the Falcons having enough secondary talent to keep the Lions receiving corps out of the end-zone. I like the Falcons more than most, and am not crazy about the Lions – I just don’t think this is a good match-up for Atlanta. The Falcons will find success on the ground, but Detroit will eventually realize that they can pick on the rookie quarterback a little bit – stack the box a lot – and end up winning this game by a touchdown or more. I like Mike Turner a lot and think he will put up some nice yardage totals against the Lions – I just don’t think the Falcons air attack is scary enough and thus the Falcons won’t score enough to take this game. Go with Detroit in this one.

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Buffalo Bills: The Seahawks defense is really good. Marcus Trufant is one of the best corners in the league, and I have to think he’ll be able to lockdown Lee Evans. Kelly Jennings will be even better this season, and the Hawks return every single secondary player from last season’s starting group. Deon Grant proved to be a great addition and Bryon Russell does everything well. The Hawks don’t do as well on the road, but going to Buffalo to start the season isn’t as tough as it would be in November, so they should feel lucky. Seattle won’t have either of their projected starters at receiver, as both Branch and Engram are out for the first couple weeks, but a running duo of Maurice Morris and Julius Jones should be enough to do some damage against the Bills defensive front. Also, expect Nate Burleson to have a nice game against a young secondary. The Bills will have too much trouble putting points on the board and the Hawks should walk out of Buffalo with an ugly win in Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Saints aren’t a good home team, they don’t have a good defense, they are going through yet another hurricane in New Orleans, and the Bucs are just flat out better than New Orleans. Sure, Jeff Garcia might be a little rusty after getting barely any action in the pre-season, but he’s a guy that doesn’t make mistakes and is as tough as quarterbacks get. The Bucs offensive line is a very tough group that loves to dig into opposing defenses. The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 match-ups with the Saints against the spread. Tampa Bay may have an aging defense, but they know how to come out of the gates spry and ready to play.

St. Louis Rams (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: What can I say? I really like the Rams as a huge dog in Philly. The Eagles aren’t great out of the gates, and they love to take opponents lightly (see team past). They are hurting to start the season without anybody proven to catch the ball besides their running back. The Eagles should still win this game, but it’s coming down to the end. They don’t have a rushing attack powerful enough to run the Rams out of it, and St. Louis can keep it close with a pretty solid run game of their own. They struggled last year, but people need to remember that this is basically the same rushing attack that did a ton of damage in 2006. The Eagles run-defense isn’t good. Don’t believe for a second that picking up a corner for 60 million bucks makes your run-defense stout again. With a spread that seems to be growing by the day, I don’t know if it’s better to wait a little longer or just get it while you can – but i like the Rams at anything 7 points or greater and you can find that everywhere.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns: I don’t know if I’m willing to buy the Cowboys as this season’s Super Bowl favorite, but I will tell you that I’m ready to purchase the Browns as this year’s big disappointment. I liken the Browns to New Orleans last year – and this game is going to be a tough one for them. I think Marion Barber is going to be a beast this season, starting in Cleveland with that revamped Browns defense. Yeah, I don’t buy it I guess. I don’t think you can buy a bunch of high-priced free agents and turn your defensive unit from goo to gold – but that’s just me. The Cowboys are going to have a much better defense this season because they absolutely stole an explosive cover man. Sure, Pacman Jones isn’t citizen number one, but while he’s on the football field he’s causing problems for opposing offenses and special teams. Jones is a playmaker and that will be on parade all season long. I’m one of the few guys thinking Pacman isn’t going to slip up anytime soon. Too much to lose, every guy has his epiphany and I think Jones had it. Romo is as good as I thought he’d be and TO is ready to do more than ever. I like the Cowboys to win this game by double digits. I found a great line at BetEd, but I’d still take the Cowboys around -5.

Carolina Panthers (+10) @ San Diego Chargers: I finally think the Panthers might be ready for that next step this season. Ha. It seems like that is said every single year, but I haven’t heard much of that coo-aid this time around. But I kind of like Carolina to put up a battle in this one. The Panthers have shown me throughout the pre-season that they can run the ball with effectiveness as both DeAngelo Williams and rookie running back Jonathan Stewart look solid. I know Steve Smith is out for this game, but DJ Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are two solid options for Delhomme on the outside. The Panthers defense is the unit that looks good to me. Peppers will be better after a down season and Jon Beason is going to be one heck of a linebacker in this league. Look for the Panthers to stay within single digits and give an overhyped Chargers team a run for their money on opening day. Plus, the Panthers are always solid value as a dog – history says that, when healthy, the Panthers are a great dog to take for a walk.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: Look at Kurt Warner’s numbers against the 49ers last season – you laughing yet? If I’m not mistaken, the old man threw for 484 yards in that game. This year, the 49ers are under the giveaway happy Martz philosophy, so that means more scoring chances for the Cardinals. I’m never sold on either of these teams, but I will tell you this, while Martz addition seems to do wonders for fantays teams all across the nation, it doesn’t do much for the prospect of picking his new team against the spread. Over the total? Maybe – but a lot of throwing the ball and not much running only works when you have guys like Randy Moss and Tom Brady – not J.T. O’Sullivan and Josh Morgan. Giving points on the road isn’t always a grand value, but the only value I see in this game is with the Cardinals. They have a more efficient offense and a defense that can make plays.

Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: I found 10.5 in this game and I am that much happier because of it. The Colts defense looked bad during the pre-season, really bad, and while that doesn’t always mean the world is falling, I can’t see it as a good sign of things to come. I’m not sure Peyton will hold up in a bunch of shootouts this season, so I expect the Colts to use their running game early and often. I think Kyle Orton is a relatively mistake free quarterback and that bodes well for the Bears covering as big dogs. I think Chicago will actually run the ball pretty effectively against the Colts, even though the Bears don’t have a stellar offensive line. Indy doesn’t have a lot of help in the secondary, and if they put their corners in a tough spot Chicago will find a way to take advantage – even with Orton and no real #1 receiving threat on the team. Manning will be slow to come back, and despite what he wants you to believe, he’s not 100%. I’ll take the Bears.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2): The Vikings lost a huge hunk of their rushing attack when the Vikings lost Bryant McKinnie to a 4-game suspension. That won’t help against a great Packer defense. The Packers have the cover corners to put most of their attention on the Vikings rushing attack. That’s not good news for Viking fans. A lot of people like the VIkings in this one, but I think they are ignoring the prospects of back-up offensive tackles going up against Aaron Kampman and the Packer’s linebacking crew. That’s not a good match-up for the Vikings in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is better than anyone is giving him credit for, but on this team he won’t have to be. Aaron won’t take all the big chances that Brett took, and while he won’t be as flashy or tally up the numbers like #4, he will give the Packers a great chance to win each time he takes the field. Don’t give up on the Packers just because Brett is wearing a different color green.

Denver Broncos (-1) @ Oakland Raiders: This is a tough one for me. I’d like to believe that the Raiders can run all over the Broncos porous rush-defense and that Oakland’s secondary will be a good match-up for Jay Cutler and a receiving corps missing their best player – Brandon Marshall. You know what, I do believe that, and that’s why this game is so tough for me. The think pushing me back over and eventually making me pick the Broncos is the Raiders run defense. What run defense am I talking about? That one that is B-A-D. The Broncos really know how to run the ball, and Selvin Young can get it done in Oakland. JaMarcus Russell won’t take too many chances, but when he does you can bet Champ Bailey and Dre Bly will be there to make him pay for it. Denver’s the better team on opening night, but the Raiders could mature as the season moves forward. Take Denver in this one.