Tag Archives: Free Football Picks

San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans Christmas Day NFL Week 16

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San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans Christmas Day NFL Week 16: Listen, I don’t want to make this about more than it is. One of these two teams is better than the other. One of these teams has something to play for. One of these teams has a better defense and a more impressive offense. One of these teams in an underdog despite clearly being the “One team” in all the above statements. I know it seems crazy, but I’m taking that team to win outright on the road in this one.

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To talk about the Chargers for a second, it seems they haven’t lost a December game since they’ve been a player in the AFC. They’ve been a handful for anyone and everyone come playoff time, or the last month of the season, and this year is no different. The Chargers started a little slow, falling far behind the Denver Broncos in a mediocre AFC West, but 9 wins in a row can quell lots of problems, and the Chargers have taken a solid lead over the rest of the AFC not playing home games in Indianapolis.

The Tennessee Titans also went on a pretty spectacular run, especially when you consider their 0-6 start to the season. Since then, and since they inserted Vince Young into the starting quarterback role, the Titans are 7-1 and continue to do their best in the spoiler role.

But the bottom line is the Titans have beaten just one team with a record better than .500 as of today. One. The Arizona Cardinals, in Tennessee. Now Arizona can be a great team, no doubt, but they can also be terrible, and having that single home win over a better than .500 team doesn’t impress-a-me-much. I’ll take the powerful dogs in this one.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans:

Poinsettia Bowl Pick: Utah Utes vs California Golden Bears

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Poinsettia Bowl Pick Utah Utes vs California Golden Bears: I know this game is in California, which basically will turn this into a Cal home game, but I think the Utes have a real chance to make the Pac-10 look even worse than they already do after BYU came out and destroyed one of the better Pac-10 players, the Oregon State Beavers. The Utes have a very good team, and are obviously well coached. But it will be their toughness up front that ultimately gives them a chance to upset the Bears of Cal.

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Utah was 9-3 this season, but just 5-7 ATS. They were 3-8-1 O/U, riding their strong defense to low scoring games and 9 wins. They were 6-0 at home, just 3-3 on the road (as you probably figured). They allow 19 points per game and score just over 29. The Utes lost 2 of their last 3 games, but won 6 straight prior to a tough stretch against top competition. Some of their most impressive outings came in losses as the Utes lost by a field goal to BYU in overtime to finish the season, and earlier lost by a touchdown at Oregon.

California has definitely been up and down, and spent most of the season ranked despite their relatively disappointing play against top competition. After starting the season 3-0 and ranked in the Top 10, the Bears got crushed in back to back games against Oregon and USC, losing by a combined score of 72-6. Gross. But they won 5 of their next 6, including back to back wins over Arizona and Stanford, no easy feat by any means. However, they finished their season rocking a 10-42 loss to Washington, and I just can’t trust that kind of garbage.

I like to take small colleges against big-name schools, especially when they are the better football team. I believe that is the case here.

Utah Utes (+3.5) @ California Golden Bears

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Oregon State Beavers vs BYU Cougars

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BYU started with one hell of a bang, beating Top 5 Oklahoma when Sam Bradford went down. After that, they were everybody’s small college darling that could get a chance at the National Title – but then the rest of the season came, and despite going for 10 wins and just 2 losses, the now 14th ranked Cougars got smacked around a couple times when they could have proven themselves. Florida State, of all teams, smacked the Cougars for their first loss, 54-28. And after three straight wins to bounce back from that, the TCU Horned Frogs (one of the best teams in the Nation, mind you) embarrassed the Cougars at home, 38-7.

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It’s very possible that the best win BYU put on the board was a week 1 win over a team that lost thier Heisman quarterback, were playing with a brand new offensive line, and were definitely a bit overrated going into the season. After that, their best win likely came at home against Utah, or at home against Air Force. In both games, the Cougars were favored by more than a touchdown.

Oregon State, on the other hand, is one of the Top 10 teams in the Nation – or so I think. Luckily, I could give a piss about rankings, the same rankings that have BYU ranked above Oregon State because they have 10 wins to OSU’s 8. Well, I’ll take OSU’s losses over most of BYU’s wins, and I know a certain couple of Rodgers brothers will be ready to show their twin magic this Tuesday on ESPN. I’ll be watching.

The Beavers should win by a couple scores.

Oregon State Beavers (-2) vs. BYU Cougars:

New York Giants vs Washington Redskins: Monday Night Football Preview

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I like what the Redskins have been doing lately. It seems as if it’s too late for Coach Zorn, but it shows what Jason Campbell might be able to do if you open up the offense for him and let him take chances down the field. I don’t know why it took so long, or why coaches insist on limiting struggling quarterbacks to fewer plays, less responsibility, and fewer options – because everybody should realize that if you go into the game knowing you can’t do certain things, either physically or mentally, you have likely already fallen too far behind to win at all. If you question that, check the film from earlier in the season. But just because I like the Redskins forward motion doesn’t mean I’m picking them here.

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In fact, I’m taking the road favorite New York Football Giants to cover in Washington. Like the Redskins, I think the Giants are playing better football as well. Their offense has a rushing attack that is finally playing well after expectations were met earlier in the season. Their passing attack is getting back to the success they had earlier in the year.

The Redskins might be playing well, but sports are all about winning battles, and I don’t know where the Redskins are better than the Giants. I know New York has struggled in the secondary, but will Jason Campbell have enough time to take advantage? I’m saying no. I’ll take the Football Giants.

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins:

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick

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New Orleans Bowl – Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick: The game’s being played in New Orleans, so nobody has a distinct advantage in this one, yet it’s close enough where teams will get fans driving in. Both these teams had solid seasons, and it should be one heck of an offensive showcase, and in those types of games, nobody’s ever out of it, and nobody’s ever safe.

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Middle Tennessee comes in winners of their last 6 games, outscoring their opponents at least 2 to 1 in 5 of those 6 contests. They haven’t played the biggest baddest competition over the last 6 games, but straight pancaking the competition needs to be recognized, and that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.

The Blue Raiders are 9-3 on the season, 9-3 ATS, 5-1 at home and 4-2 on the road. They’ve won everywhere. They score an average of 31 points per game while giving up 23. They are 7-5 O/U, going 4-2 O/U in their recent 6 game winning streak. They’ve out-rushed their opponents in each of their last 6 games.

The Golden Eagles are 7-5 on the year, 6-5 ATS, 6-0 at home and just 1-5 on the road, making me question their chances away from home in this bowl game. They’ve averaged 33 poitns per game while giving up 24.5. SMU has played a much tougher schedule than the Blue Raiders. The Eagles have won 5 of their last 6 games ATS, and are 4-2 SU over their last 6 games.

It comes down to their rushing attack, their momentum, and their ability to play anywhere – and because of that, I like the Blue Raiders to pull the bowl upset.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+4)

Vikings vs Panthers Sunday Night Football Week 15 Picks

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Minnesota Vikings vs Carolina Panthers Sunday Night Football Week 15 Pick: The Panthers aren’t very good, but even worse yet, they haven’t been coached very well this year. This team, no matter what the situation, how much time is left on the clock, likes to throw the ball when they are running with success. It baffles me. It pains me to see one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL go to Matt Moore when the game is on the line, when you have DeAngleo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, a good offensive line that has successfully created running room against just about every opponent they’ve played again, when you have a 2nd string quarterback that is amazingly worse than the turnover machine that started the first 10 games of the season. But the Panthers continue to do their due diligence, as they threw the ball more than they ran it last week, despite being down by a score or less for most of the entire game, and having Williams run for about 7 yards per carry, the Panthers did it again. Amazing.

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So how can I put my money on this team? I can’t. The Viking have a very good rushing attack, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave the Panthers a little taste of the recipe Carolina should be using. Adrian Peterson looks like a good candidate to gain 150 yards this weekend. The Vikings are very tough up front, and could limit the only thing the Panthers do well.

So, not only is this a terrible match-up for the Panthers, but they haven’t shown any signs of figuring it out. Give me the Vikings and a mere touchdown. Thanks.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Carolina Panthers:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks: Week 15 Picks

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks Week 15 Picks: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have a worse record than the Seattle Seahawks, but it’s hard to say which team has managed a more terrible and disappointing season. While Tampa has managed just a single win, a flukey offensive performance against the Green Bay Packers what seems like ages ago, the Seahawks have consistently looked terrible against any team worth half a penny. In their healthiest game of the season since about Week 1, the Hawks got full throttled by the Houston Texans last week, giving up 7,322 yards in the first five minutes of the game. It looked like Houston was running a two-minute drill against 8th graders. But, despite all that mumbo jumbo, I’m going with the Hawks at home by 7. I don’t know why I’m doing it, but I’ll try to explain the best I can.

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Seattle is 4-2 at home, and obviously they are so weak mentally that they think playing at home actually gives them an advantage. They are one of the worst teams in the league on road, second to only a couple teams, one of them being the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Buccos have yet to win a road game this season.

67% of the public bet is on Seattle, and I’ve always questioned taking a team that is 3 games under .500 yet favored by a touchdown – but I think Seattle can run early and often on the Bucs, and if Jim Mora can promptly remove his head from the suit of aces, and give the ball to his most explosive offensive player (Justin Forsett) then I think they’ll wing the game easily. Nothing like putting your chips on Jim Mora’s logic…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)

Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks

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Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams: Free Football Picks: This line has been weird all week, basically unbetable in most books, and I’m not really sure why that is. I know the Texans have an underrated defense, they are missing a rushing attack, but they have one of the better passing attacks in the league despite missing one of their best receiving options, TE, Owen Daniels.

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I know the Rams don’t have a very good rushing attack, but they do have Steven Jackson, though dinged up he be, and he’s good enough to be a threat and get close to 100 yards on the ground. I know that no matter who is healthy and who is injured for the Rams, they are going to have a bad quarterback with smallish wide receivers that rarely get the ball thrown to them where they can make a play. So exactly what the books are waiting for here is beyond me, but at -10, I think the Texans can do the job.

Those are the things, amongst other things as well, that I know.

Houston just needs to put two halves together and this thing will be more lopsided than NASCAR’s turning signals. If they don’t string together two well played halves, I still think 10 is a solid number for them to cover. Houston has been pretty solid on the road (3-3 with wins over Cincinnati and Tennessee) and they have beat up on bad teams (hello Bills -31 to 10, Raiders -29 to 6, and Seahawks -34 to 7). That’s good enough for the girl I go with, I’ll take the Texans.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Week 15 NFL

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San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Week 15 NFL: This could be one of those games that the Eagles just lose so they can make things five times as difficult for themselves – admit it – they have a knack for paddy-whacking themselves right into the most difficult of situations no matter how sunny the horizon looks. But they can also score three touchdowns on two possessions, and continue to be one of the most explosive teams in the NFL, on both sides of the ball.

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But I can’t look past the Niners and nine points – it just seems to perfect to fail me. Niners and nine – the only way I’d feel better, the only way I’d feel I absolutely had to bet the Niners at all cost would be if they were getting 49 points – shoot – even if they were favored by 49, the symmetry would be too good to pass up. But 9 points? The 49ers have lost one single game by more than 7 points this season. In their 7 losses, four of them have been by 4 points or less. This team also plays close games, and they are also pretty good.

The Eagles passing attack matches up well with the 49ers leaky secondary, but throwing the ball to win every game doesn’t always go as easily as planned, similar to in basketball when you live by the three and die by the three, the Eagles have shot themselves square in the bag of goods on more than a couple occasions. The 49ers will make them earn it, and despite being just 1-5 on the road, San Fran looks like a nice bet with 9 points.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets NFL Week 15 Picks

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Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets NFL Week 15 Picks: When it comes right down to it, I think the Falcons are a lot better than their record insists, both these teams play close games, and Atlanta should be as healthy as they’ve been in the last month. The only thing I have going against me here is the Falcons’ road woes, and woeful they are indeed. Atlanta has just one road win in six chances, going 1-5 away from Atlanta this season.

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But I think the Falcons are better than a 6-7 insinuates – look at their losses. Aside from Carolina (a team that just happens to be a match-up nightmare for the run-defense-less Falcons) Atlanta has only lost to winning teams, the Patriots, Cowboys, Saints, Giants, Eagles, and Saints – and 4 if those games have been by one possession. They play close games. And they often step up their play for big games.

The Jets have won 3 straight after losing three straight in November. But it’s not like they’ve played dominate football, they’ve just played one of the softest three weeks in football, playing at home against Carolina, then on the road against powerhouses such as the Bills and Buccaneers – sign me up for that schedule. The Jets haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since they upset the Patriots in Week 2.

Offensively, the Falcons are obviously better, and even against bad defenses, the Jets have had plenty of trouble bringing the football with them to the end-zone. That’s enough for me to take the Falcons at +6.

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New York Jets