NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 6

After a little run of un-luck, if you will, the tables turned back around to give me a 9-5 Week 6. I’d take 9-5 the rest of the way, that’s for sure. There were a couple big one’s that didn’t go my way as Sunday saw the Eagles lose to the Raiders (even though Papa Weimer warned me), the Giants get trounced by the Saints, as well as Houston upsetting the Bengals in Cincinnati. But hey, you can’t win ’em all. But 9-5 is a win for Week 6, and that puts me 4 more games up over .500 for the season. Won this battle, still winning the war!!! Here’s the review:

no banners

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5): (LOSS) The Texans through the ball all over the field, as they seem to be able to do against just about anyone. Matt Schaub can sling it, and Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, and Jacoby Jones can catch it. They probably have more guys able to handle Schaub passes, but I can’t name them all. The bottom line is, the Texans set out to make sure Cinci wasn’t going to snipe the victory from their grasps at the end of the game, and going up two scores late finished off the cardiac cats. Houston’s dedication to stopping the run paid big dividends defensively, playing a big role in their win.

New York Giants (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) “The Saints have been solid, no doubt about it, but they have yet to show me they are the top team in the league, while New York has proven to be in that conversation over and over.” Consider the Saints proven. That doesn’t mean I’ll take them from here on out, but they have won me over. I’ve always been a hater of the way their head coach runs his squad. The way Reggie kept getting carries, or the way Colston had seemingly been frozen out of some games. But he’s figured it out this year, he’s giving the ball to the players that make wins happen, no matter what that guy’s name happens to be. This team in New Orleans is very good, not just offensively, but defensively they are stout all over the field. Consider me educated!

Kansas City Chiefs (+7) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) “This is a real excitement filled contest! For the fifth time this season (which makes that every single week so far) the Redskins are going up against an opponent without a win. Yes, despite being 2-3 on the season, 1-3-1 ATS, the Redskins opponents have been winless prior to meeting the Skins. Lucky for opposing teams, the Redskins have given opponents their first win of the season 3 times. They’ve managed to play close games, though, another reason to take the Chiefs this week in D.C. Another reason to take the Chiefs? They always cover against Washington, at least in the last 5 match-ups they have. What else? I like what I saw from Matt Cassel last week, and from the looks of it he’s getting a little more comfortable with his new offense. KC has played tough with some good teams this year, despite losing by double digits to both Baltimore and New York, they played solid football in both games. They’re winless so far, but if it’s up to the Redskins, that will change. KC’s secondary and run defense can be exposed, but there’s not much positive coming out of Washington these days, so I’ll just take the Chiefs and that free touchdown. This brings the question, should Washington be favored by a touchdown against anyone? I think not.” Can I just let this write up speak for itself? I mean, it was pretty accurate, thorough, and played out well. The Redskins favored by a touchdown, yes please opposing team!

no banners

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) John Fox and the Panthers tried to lose this one, but DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart wouldn’t be denied. Why the Panthers even allowed Jake Delhomme to throw a single pass is beyond me, bust out the freaking Wild Cat and if need be have a running back toss a deep one to Steve Smith. In the end, the Panthers took this battle of futile clubs – I don’t see many wins for either of these teams down the road, not unless the Panthers figure some stuff out. Yeah, that’s right Bucs fans, you’re already finished. At least there’s a couple big bad defensive lineman to be had at the top of next year’s draft.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14): (LOSS) “Taking the Steelers as a double digit favorite is always scary, and especially this season considering they haven’t beaten anybody by that kind of margin, even allowing a late touchdown last week to the Lions to win by just 8 – and yes, I’m still a little bitter about that. But this match-up begs me to take the Steel City, and I won’t fight it.” Should have fought it. Looking back on this game, I still don’t think the Browns cover two touchdowns half the times if these two played 10. But it is what it is, sometimes you miss a spread by a single point – this was one of those situations. The Steelers can’t buy a cover win these days, but hey, the only people effected by covers are us. One field goal away from 10-4…

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-9): (LOSS) “It’s very rare that when you look at tales of the tape and one side wins at every statistic – welcome to the Bills and Jets tale of the tape. Points, Yards Gained, Yards Allowed, Red Zone Efficiency, Time of Possession, Kicking, Penalties, Turnovers, hot wives, confidence – I mean shoot, the only thing these two teams are even close in is New receivers that were consistent problems for their former teams, and that’s a freaking tie, no winner there.” This is why numbers don’t really mean jack. One could say, this is why you play the game, or, you never know on any given Sunday – something in that virginity. All I’m saying is that the Bills came to play, and it might have taken a little luck to get the job done, but the bottom line is that they were the better team this Sunday. The took advantage of a rookie quarterback losing confidence, and they limited their mistakes. TO still dropped a few passes, but Lee Evans had a big play that put the Bills in the right spot. And Buffalo upsets the Jets in New York – very nice! Return of the underdogs!!!

no banners

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-9): (WINNER) “The Titans have been brutal, and I don’t think their secondary woes will get quelled when Tom Brady and the suddenly sputtering Patriots offense hosts them this Sunday. If anything, I expect Tom and company to beet down the 400 yard passing barrier, put up tons of points, and continue to play solid defense like they’ve done all season long. It may be a popular pick, and the Patriots may be a different offense than they were last year, but last year’s team would have ousted this year’s Titans 70-14. This year’s Patriots could do at least half that mark, and the defense can keep the Titans out of the end zone most of the day.” Amazingly enough, I think I underestimated the Patriots in this write-up. Apparently this year’s team could have outscored the Titans 70-14, but you got the picture I hope. Tom Brady grabbed hold of a record on Sunday, dealing out 5 TD passes in the 2nd quarter alone – I was watching and locked in, what a performance. It was as if the Titans were the only team playing in/on snow.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) “I don’t see the injured Hawks offensive line doing enough to slow that Cardinal pass rush. They have 3 back-ups on the O-line starting group, and that’s being generous with the word back-ups, some of these guys are back-up back-ups. And the Cardinals front four can bring it.” Lots of stuff happened in this game, but in my mind, that front four versus Seattle’s offensive line was the difference in the game. The RBs for the Hawks ran the ball for just around a yard per carry. Matt was constantly hurried, and that secondary which was one of the league’s worst barely had to pay any attention to throws of 12 yards or more. Locked in on short patterns, the Cardinals didn’t allow Seattle to do anything all day long. Called this one right on the button.

Philadelphia Eagles (-14) @ Oakland Raiders: (LOSS)  I still can’t believe the Eagles lost this game. But, that’s what the Eagles do. Sometimes they get way too pass happy and lose site of the things that would win them games like this in which they don’t play that well – like, um, running the damn ball. I should have listened to my crazy uncle, he picked the Raiders to cover, and their toughness shined on Sunday. I still think the Eagles lost this one instead of Oakland beating them, but Oakland definitely covered that big bad spread.

no banners

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) The Vikings magic continues. After playing better than the Ravens all day, Balitmore made some big plays, a couple much-needed stops, and Ray Rice took one to the house as Baltimore found themselves up 1 with just minutes left. Did I say just minutes, because any amount of time seems to be enough for Brett to get his team into a winning play. The Vikings did exactly that, moved down to field goal range with ease, and hit the game winner. But wait, it was too fast. Joe Flacco threw for more yards in this game than ever before, and the Ravens are in business to end the Vikings amazing start to the season – but wait – the powers that be pushed the Ravens’ kicker’s try wide left and the Vikings win by 2. Minnesota continues their winning ways, I cover and get the win, the only loser here was Baltimore. I can live with that.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “I’ve missed on the Jaguars a lot this year, but I still don’t think they deserved to be favored by 10 points against anybody. The Rams are getting healthy, as they should have the healthiest offense they’ve had all year. If they commit to the run, and I think they will, they have a chance to cover agaisnt the Jaguars.” The Rams had a chance to upset the Jags, and possibly get that single win they needed to not be this year’s Lions – but just as soon as Leonard Little returned an INT for a touchdown, the Jaguars marched down for the game tying field goal. Then it was overtime, and overtime meant an L for the Rams as Maurice Jones-Drew willed his team to victory, and Josh Scobey finished the Rams off with a game winning FG. The Rams covered easily, obviously, and luckily for me, the worst team in football remains victory-less in ’09.

no banners

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13): (WINNER)  “The Packers coming off a bye week preparing for a Lions team that has a list of injured players you couldn’t count using just your fingers (who can count past their fingers these days anyway?) – It’s hard not to be all gung-ho about the Packers chances at winning by a couple touchdowns.” Well, the public wasn’t (favored the Packers), I wasn’t (picked the Packers) and hopefully after reading my picks, you weren’t (enter amount won picking the Packers here $____). The bottom line, the Lions weren’t healthy enough to compete with Green Bay’s big guns. I think they game will be closer next time around, but the Packers owned the day this time around.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3): (WINNER) I was confused about this line, I didn’t see the evenness of these two teams as the spread insisted. On that, I was wrong. The Bears and the Falcons are fairly similar teams. They are two squads that relied heavily on the run last season, but haven’t been able to get the ground game going full-speed thus far in 2009. Both passing games have won games, and the threat of the air attack will soon take pressure off the running game. Both defenses aren’t great, but they do hit hard, tackle well, and put pressure on opposing offenses. The Falcons are a little better, but the difference isn’t nearly as big as I thought it was. That being said, Atlanta covered. They needed some big plays on defense, some big turnovers, and a couple throws by Matt Ryan, but they covered.

Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) I said that the Chargers are and have been overrated, and I still believe that to be true, but they played well on Monday Night. The offensive line couldn’t give Phillip enough time to really hurt them through the air, and the running game did some damage but San Diego’s final numbers weren’t much to be proud of. Denver got 2 special teams touchdowns from Eddie Royal, which they won’t get every night. But don’t be fooled, the better team was Denver, they played better, and they got the win. Nothing surprising here.

Leave a Reply