Tag Archives: Week 16 NFL Predictions

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants ATS Pick & Preview

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Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants ATS Pick & Preview: Maybe the Panthers are better than I give them credit for. Maybe there’s something to be said for a team as poorly coached and with as crappy quarterback play as they’ve gotten that can still manage a 6-8 record with a 7-7 ATS mark through 14 games. Maybe that secondary that has shut down opposing passing attacks is in fact pretty damn good, and not just lucky. Maybe. But I still don’t think so. Maybe I’m stubborn. Maybe I’m downright overconfident in my ability to accurately judge any given NFL team. Whatever it is, I certainly don’t believe in the Panthers.

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New York has climbed right back into the playoff race with 3 wins in their last 5 games, beating Atlanta, Dallas, and Washington to get to 8-6 with two to go. And right now, they control their own playoff destiny. Like good teams have done in the past, the Giants are playing some of their best football of the season. After losing 4 straight in the middle of the year, New York has started running the ball better and playing better defensively as well. They are still dealing with a lot of injuries, especially in the secondary, but if there’s one team that will have plenty of trouble taking advantage of that dinged up pass-defense, it’s the Panthers.

Listen, it’s nice to see somebody else throwing balls in Carolina, but Matt Moore is an interception waiting to happen, or five. He’s been pretty lucky thus far, but eventually, he’s going to get it for the decisions he makes. Why not this week?

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7)

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions

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Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Predictions: About 60% of the public bet is on Miami, and while they are a better team at home, the Texans have shed their normal “road schmo” title, going 4-3 away from Houston so far this season. And despite the Dolphins ability to run the football with success against just about any opponent, I do happen to think Houston is the better team of the two. Not only can they throw the ball as well as any team in the league, but defensively they bring a lot more heat than many believe.

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This Houston defense has given up 21 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. And while that normal late season swoon basically eliminated the Texans from post-season dreams, they are still playing for their first winning season in, well, in forever. They’ve been 8-8 each of the last two seasons, and while that’s a step in the right direction, a winning year is theirs if they can win out. With that on the line, I definitely expect this one to be a battle.

So it will come down to the little things, or the small details, and the fact that Houston has had just about the worst luck all season long has something to do with my decision. Yes, that kind of stuff evens out folks, and it should do that here. Houston lost their first game by 17 points. Since then, they’ve lost 6 other times. Since then, not a single loss has been decided by more than 8 points. Those one score games have killed them, but I think they get this one. The luck turns!

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers: Week 16 NFL Picks

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Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers Week 16 NFL Picks: It’s amazing the way match-ups can make themselves special. Take this one, for example, the Hawks and Packers have a common link: they are the only two teams that have lost to Tampa Bay this season. Amazing.

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Listen, anything can happen, and it very well might, but Seattle on the road, going up against a pissed off Packers team that just lost by a point on the road with a last play touchdown – please. When you add on the fact that Green Bay has been lighting people up, winners in 5 of their last 6 games, and going up against probably the most pathetic playing bunch of no-effort, poorly coached, aggression-less clowns holding a 1-6 road record close to their heart – yeah, the Packers seem like a no-brainer.

And despite my insessent searching to tell me otherwise, I can’t find a good reason to go with the road dog here. I know just under 63% of the bet is on Green Bay, and that has to be a bit of a red-flag, but that can’t sway my bet. I know the Packers have only won a few games by more than 14 points, but Seattle seems to fit the bill of the lackluster opponents responsible for Green Bay’s biggest wins (teams like Detroit-twice, and Cleveland. Maybe talent-wise, Seattle is better that those teams, but effort-wise, I’d have to say everyone ranks higher than the Sea Chickens.

The Packers are 5-2 at home, and aside from one mishap against Tampa Bay, have stomped the lesser NFL teams so far this season. I like that trend to continue with a Packer win in Green Bay. They have more to play for, play harder, are more aggressive, and finally are a terrible match-up for Seattle’s soft offense.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

Oakland Raiders vs Cleveland Browns: Expert NFL Picks

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Oakland Raiders vs Cleveland Browns Expert NFL Picks: What the Browns have been doing lately depends very little on quarterback play, and even if it did, Brady Quinn wasn’t showing flashes of Bernie Kosar or anything crazy like that, so Derek Anderson should be able to step in and do a terrible job. In fact, this game is guaranteed to have some amazingly poor quarterbacking play. A couple throws and decisions made will surely perform like pepper spray in the casual on-watcher’s eye, so much so that I can’t wait to catch a glimpse. That’s right, I’ll have this game recorded for my complete viewing pleasure. Anytime I get sad football is over come this off-season, I’ll play the first few minutes of this game and feel better instantly!

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All jokes aside, I think the Browns are a decent bet here. They’ve played pretty solid football (sounds gross, I know) over the last 6 weeks or so. Maybe not solid, but there’s been something good coming from their team in all 6 of their last 6 games. Against Baltimore, their defense was stout. Against Detroit, their offense came alive. They lost by just 9 to Cincinnati in another tough defensive battle. They lost by a touchdown to one of the best teams in football (San Diego). They beat Pittsburgh straight up, and made it two in a row by laying 41 points on Kansas City in a game where their rushing attack (mainly James Harrison) torched the Chiefs for 300+ yards and a 41-34 score on the road.

Oakland has a better defense, but just barely. I’m not sure what I would have conceded first, teh Raiders winning two straight or Cleveland winning 3 in a row. But it looks like the answer’s Cleveland for me this week. At home, a solid run game, I’ll take them.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks: I wrote in my Just Picks Newsletter than “I’d Feel like a moron if I didn’t pick the Chiefs in Cincinnati.” And that’s almost exclusively because the Bengals have played close with just about everyone. There is no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati could and probably should beat the Chiefs by 21 points or more, but the Bengals just haven’t played football like that. They are in it to win games, and if the best way to do that is run the ball a ton and get the game over as fast as possible, that’s exactly what they are going to do. I should know, I’ve been picking the Bengals to cover big spreads, and they’ve been killing me because of it.

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The Bengals are 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS, but 0-4 ATS when favored by 6 points or more so far this season. They’ve beaten just one single team by double digits this season, the Chicago Bears in a rare offensively explosion game for the Bengals. One. In 9 wins, they’ve had one double digit victory – that’s almost crazy speak. But like I said, they are in it to win it and how pretty the score looks at games’ end is of no consequence to the Bengals.

The Chiefs are bad, and even worse on the road, and they only close game they’ve played over the last 4 weeks is their 34-41 loss to Cleveland at home last week, but listen, I’m not picking the Chiefs because of the Chiefs, I’m taking them because of the Bengals, the best ugly winner in football.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

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Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: Sure, the Falcons won last week in a game they probably didn’t have any reason to win – they were playing with nothing to gain, with some key injuries, and a banged up defense that had struggled all season – but they won anyway. And the Bills, well, they lost again. But it’s not that easy, and I really think the Bills are playing their best football of the season while Atlanta just made a win out of a situation where their opponent just couldn’t put them away. Another loss and a Falcon win helped this spread be what it opened at, and getting the Bills at +9 seems like a deal to me.

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Shoot, at one book, you can even get the Bills at +9.5 – which is definitely better than 9. 35-24, 27-18, 30-20 – I’ve seen those happen a lot, 9 point games aren’t crazy, so if you can get that extra half point, that’s nice – but I think this game will be closer than 9. First of all, the Bills love to run the ball, and run it they will. 2nd of all, getting up to play a Jets team with playoff aspirations is one thing, but getting up when you have no chance at the playoffs against the 5-9 Buffalo Bills is a completely different deal. To put it simply, I don’t see the Falcons coming out and doing that.

Atlanta has played in close games all season long, winning only 3 games by more than 8 points, and playing plenty of close games in which they lost. The Bills have played in plenty of close games lately, and despite winning just 2 of their last 5, have finished within a touchdown or less in each loss. Look for this one to be close.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons