Texas Longhorns (-22.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies Week 13 Free Pick: Like I said in my newsletter, Texas has won their last 5 games by at least 25 points. Why not make it 6?” Listen, there are lots of reason, historical reasons, rivalry reasons, to like the Aggies here, and so far the spread has resembled that sediment. The spread has shot down a very important 1.5 points since I made my selection, all the way down to 21, a nice 3-touchdown number. That scares me a little, the books obviously wanted some more money coming in on the road favorites – but I can’t be worried too much about what the books want.
Lets look at some reasons why my pick is scary. One – this spread has rarely been this big, only twice in the last ten seasons. Two – it’s a rivalry game. It may be a rivalry recently dominated by the Longhorns, but 7 of the last 10 doesn’t look as good when you see that the Aggies have upset Texas twice in the last three seasons. Also, the Aggies covered three straight going into last years’ game.
But that’s history, maybe not ancient history, but history nonetheless. The Longhorns probably haven’t played many games up to their par this season, but don’t look past their lat 5 wins by at least 27 points. Sure, they started off the season slow in terms of dominant wins, but five in a row in the high twenties or more? I have to like their chances to continue the run. Plus, the Aggies have been destroyed by “good” teams, OK State, Arkansas, and Oklahoma (none as good as Texas) all won their games by 27+ points over the Aggies. The Longhorns shall be #4.