Week 1 is in the books, and I’m 5-3-1 to start the season. I’m not saying its Championship material, but a winning week is a winning week, and I’ll take it all year long. This is a week full of favorites with big point spreads, most are justified, while some are not. Follow along as I make my Free NFL Picks for Week 2.

Atlanta Falcons (+11) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

I hate to do this, but the Jaguars favored history just isn’t very appealing. I expect a 20-13 game here, and I also expect it to go by fast. Over the last 3 seasons, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS when giving 7.5 or more points. There only win came last year against Tennessee on the 5th of November. The Falcons looked terrible in Week 1, but I have a feeling they’ll be better if they give more carries to Jerious Norwood. Joey Harrington can have his good games, and since Jacksonville will do anything in their power to stop the Falcons running attack, I think Joey could have a solid day in Jacksonville. This game is a bit of a toss up with, but with a spread as high as 10, I have to take the Falcons, if only because neither offense has shown me an ability to cover big spreads. This is the first game in the last 3 seasons that the Falcons are getting more than 7 points.

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5):

I’m not sure if the Steelers are as good as they played last week, and I’m positive that the Bills offense will be better than they were last week, but even with those two things coming together, I just don’t see this game being closer than 10 points. I know its not cool to take 10 point favorites like the Steelers, but defensively, they looked special last week in Cleveland. I know the Phoenix Suns’ defense would look good against the Browns, but the Steelers’ defense has that swagger back. Big Ben should find plenty of room to throw the ball in Buffalo’s secondary. Willie Parker will have upwards of 150 yards, and the Steelers should win by 2 touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers (+1) @ New York Giants:

The Packers haven’t been very good over the past 3 seasons, but on the road they show heart. Not only are they 14-9-2 ATS over the last 3 years, but they are 12-13 SU on the road as well. The Giants’ defense isn’t going to shut down the Packers’ offense like the Eagles did, and if Eli Manning doesn’t play, the Giant don’t even stand a chance against one of the best young defenses in the NFL. Yes, the Packers have rebuilt their team around a talented defense, and they will give the Giants trouble, even if Manning shows up. It will be interesting, but after playing 2 quality NFC East opponents in the first 2 weeks of the season, I expect the Pack to be 2-0.

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5):

The Panthers are 11-14 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, and they’ve never won more than 5 games at home during that time span. They aren’t a home team hero, that’s for sure. The Panthers are only 8-6 ATS as a 6+ point favorite over the last 3 seasons, but they’ve won 9 of their last 10 games favored by 6 or more, and are 8-2 ATS over that time. I think the Texans are much better this season, but also think they aren’t as good as their 20-3 score against the Chiefs showed last week. Carolina has a more cohesive unit, and Houston will have to show a lot more to shut down the Panthers. I rarely take the Panthers as a favorite, and they haven’t showed much strength at home, but I have a feeling they’ll win by at least a touchdown against the Texans this weekend.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ Tennessee Titans:

Vince Young skipped his way to 10-2-2 ATS as a starter in this league, which makes him a bettors best friend. Unless you’re me, and you keep betting against the young star from Texas. I’m not taking the Colts because their defense was so dominant last week against New Orleans, but because their offense is too much for the Titans. Peyton knows what he has to do on a weekly basis to win, and this week he’ll do just that. The Titans beat the Colts late last season, and easily covered the spread in their first meeting, losing a nail-biter, 14-13 in Tennessee. Last season, the Colts were only 4-6-1 ATS when favored by 7 or more points. Regardless of all the numbers telling me to go a different direction, I think this game won’t be close. The Colts will do a better job against the Titans running attack than the Jaguars did, and thus Vince will have to beat them through the air. Jacksonville’s lack of a passing game was the main reason they couldn’t put up points on Tennessee last week. The Colts won’t have that problem.

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (-3):

This is a very tough game for me, but I have to go with the Rams, if only because they have a guy named Steven Jackson trying to redeem himself after a pathetic Week 1 performance where he literally fumbled the game away. The Rams were already without Todd Steussie, and now Orlando Pace is out for the season, but the 49ers gave up rushing yards by the bundles to Arizona in Week 1. Steven Jackson’s opening Week 1 disappointment could continue as he’ll have a tough time getting anywhere without blockers paving the way, but if the 49ers put 8 in the box, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Marc Bulger will surely make them pay. San Francisco was lucky to get a win in Week 1, while the Rams killed themselves. Each team will be 1-1 after Week 2, in familiar territory, chasing the Seahawks and ahead of the Cardinals.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3):

I know the Vikings shut down the Falcons in Week 1, but remember, Minnesota’s defense score more points than their offense. Minnesota won’t get that lucky ever week, as I can’t imagine they return two interceptions for touchdowns ever again this season. The way I see it, Atlanta didn’t have passing attack that could attack the Vikings defense where they are the most vulnerable, their secondary. Detroit has a foursome of wide receivers who can get open and catch the ball with the best of them. Furrey, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, and Shaun McDonald all contributed last week against a solid secondary in Oakland. The Lions have confidence going in to Week 2, something the Vikings offense doesn’t have. Detroit will put 8 and 9 in the box, making Tarvaris Jackson beat them through the air. He won’t, Detroit will win.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears (-12):

Yes, the Chiefs are that bad. Chicago looked brutal offensively in Week 1. They’ll be better, even against a pretty solid Chief defense. If the Bears can score two touchdowns in this game, they’ll cover with ease. I want to call a shutout here, but they are so rare in the NFL. Oh, what the hell, Chicago shuts the Chiefs out. Also, I think Rex throws two touchdowns for the Bears. I don’t think Cedric Benson will have a big day, but Devin Hester will do something Devin Hesterish from the receiver position, and Chicago wins easily to get their first W of the year.

N.Y. Jets (+12) @ Baltimore Ravens:

I like the Ravens to win this one, but their offensive game plan and execution last week weren’t enough to gain them 12 points against New York, even if they do have to rest Chad Pennington. You forget, many people would say that Kellen Clemens can stretch a defense much more than Chad. I think Pennington is better right now, but Baltimore could jump short routes against him, but with Clemens I’m not so sure. He’ll beat you deep. I expect a better performance out of the Jets running game, even against feared Baltimore. The Ravens might have to limit Steve McNair as well – this game should be close, with injuries and backups playing a big roll. I’ll take that huge point total in this one.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5):

I don’t know about 7 point spreads. 6.5, I don’t mind, but 7, ugh, pushes are so common. The reason I’m taking the Eagles in this divisional rivalry game is mainly because they were so pathetic last week in Green Bay. See, the Eagles are a very good football team, and the only thing I was worried about was if their defense would get back to dominance. Well, they made the Packers’ offense look like Duke’s football team, and if it weren’t for 3 fluke muffed punts, they would have easily won Sunday’s game. They have to be pissed, and I’ll take a pissed off Eagle team any day of the week. The 7 point spread shouldn’t be too tough to get early, but holding onto it late could be difficult. I have to take the Eagles in this one.