The NFL has begun! Bring it! I’m going for 4 winning season’s in a row. If you want my picks for my Top 7 games, you’ll have to fork over a little cash this season, but I’m still good for the rest of the games, still dealing out 9 Free Picks in Week 1. Let the games begin!
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-6):
9/6/2007 8:30pm EST
This game is a tough one, but I have to go with the Colts because history and early season dominance predicts a big win to start off the season. The Colts are 22-15-2 ATS in domes over the past 4 seasons. They also have a 33-7 record over that time span. The Colts also win games when they’re the favorite. You can all but put it on the board when the Colts are favored, as they’ve won more than 80% of those games. The Saints are coming off an impressive season, and while the Colts lost some key components this off-season, they’ll be ready on Thursday.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings:
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST
What a boring game to start the season, so I’m taking the points, as little and insignificant as they may be. The Falcons are strictly a running team while the Vikings have a dominant running defense. The Falcons have a talented young defense who should play very well against a stagnant Viking offense that just doesn’t look like a touchdown producer this season. Joey Harrington, in my opinion, is the better quarterback option for Week 1. Atlanta’s team speed on defense should keep Tarvaris Jackson locked down pretty well, and the Vikings will start the season with a home loss.
Carolina Panthers (+1) @ St. Louis Rams:
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST
I’ve been a huge fan of the Panthers and their talent over the last few seasons, and I know its not good to base much on the pre-season, but they played poorly during the exhibition. However, I have to stick to my guns early on, despite pre-season woes. The Rams should be improved this year, but the Panthers are better away from Carolina as they are at home. Over the last 4 seasons, they are 24-15-1 ATS on the road, and have 24 wins overall. So, despite the Rams offensive strengths, and a defense that should help them make a push at the Seahawks in the NFC West, I’m sticking to one of my 2007 favorites, the Carolina Panthers.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-3):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST
Vegas has to see what I see in Kansas City. Larry Johnson is back, which gives the Texans defense something to think about, but with all the quarterback turmoil, HBO specials, camp injuries, and overall age of this declining Chiefs team, I think the young and improved Texans will easily win their first game of the year. Damon Huard is solid, but he’s not 100%, and he’ll need to be before the Chiefs start winning games. Houston will be much better this year, even if the W/L record doesn’t translate. Schaub will be 1-0 as the starter in Houston after the first week.
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (-3):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST
Neither of these teams does much to excite me, except I really like Jason Campbell and the two headed running back monster in Washington (Yes I’m THE guy who still thinks Clinton Portis is a Top 5 talent). Campbell ran Al Saunders’ offense well in the last 3 games of the season, and I think he has just as much promise as any of the young quarterbacks in the league. He has the IT you need to win football games. I like Ronnie Brown, don’t like Trent Green and his 45 yard arm, and think the Dolphins front 7 is legit, but I’m not down with Cam Cameron’s games he’s playing in Miami already. Doesn’t he know that crap doesn’t go well with veteran clubs? So, with Washington at home, and Campbell making the plays the Redskins need to win, I think they just sneak by Miami’s front 7 on way to an opening day victory.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+7):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST
I love the Patriots to finish the year on fire in 2007, but despite their bulk of off-season acquisitions, and their status as a huge favorite to win the Super Bowl, I think their early injuries will give the Jets a big advantage and should make this a close game. Thus, I’ll go against the ATS dominators. I don’t think the Jets are the better team here, and the Pats will probably sneak out a 3 point win with a late field goal or something, but Eric Mangini is a very good coach that knows Bill Belichick’s system very well – so I’ll take the Jets getting a touchdown. Thomas Jones is the ball carrier the Jets needed to get their consistency up, and I think Chad Pennington will be good despite a questionable pre-season. Asante Samuel is just getting back and Richard Seymour is out for the first 6 games. Without Seymour, the Pats are a much different team up front. This will be a hell of a game, but the underdogs might just surprise a few people at home.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5):
9/9/2007 1:00pm EST
Its hard to bet against Vince Young, I mean the kid has gone 9-2-2 ATS in his only 11 games in the NFL, as he led his team of youthful Titans to the best ATS 13 game stretch of the season. But, gone is Travis Henry and suspended is Pacman Jones, and both had just as much, if not more to do with keeping the Titans in football games last season. Jones had more than a couple late game heroics that sent his team to victory, while Henry was the constant rushing force the Titans needed to win football games. On the other hand, the Jags defense is explosive up front, and while they’ve lost their starting safeties, their young guys will make more than enough plays to give them Game 1. David Garrard is who the Jags wanted, and they get their new unquestioned starter to begin his legacy against a porous Titans defense in Week 1. Vince looked solid after his first pre-season problem, but I have a feeling he’ll struggle this season. It starts in Jacksonville. Take the Jags.
Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (-6):
9/9/2007 4:15pm EST
This game is another tough one, as both the Bears and Chargers are poised for double digit wins – but then again, both have plenty of questions heading into 2007. Norv Turner is the new head coach in San Diego, a year after Marty Schottenheimer was fired after a 14-2 regular season record. Wade Phillips is gone to Dallas and Cam Cameron is playing games with his players in Miami – those are the 3 biggest coaching reasons why the Chargers were one of the best teams in football over the last 3 seasons. Well, those coaches are gone. Chicago comes in with Rex whining about how Chicago fans are always too negative. C’mon, guy. Thomas Jones, the biggest sure thing in Chicago’s offense is now playing for the Jets, and Ron Rivera (Chicago’s defensive guru) is now a linebackers coach in Chicago. You want questions, this game has plenty. I like the Chargers talent more, and they’re probably the better team – so I’ll take them at home with LT doing his damage against a Bears run defense that isn’t as great as everyone thinks it is. Tough call, but I’ll take the Chargers by a touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6):
9/9/2007 4:15pm EST
Everyone is giving up on the Hawks. I watched a recent show that claimed, at best, the Hawks finish with 9 wins. Give me a break. I also heard that the Hawks lost too much from last year’s team. Did those guys see the Hawks off-season moves? Three safeties are new to this squad that are a better fit in Seattle’s D than anyone of the guys they had last season. Patrick Kerney is the pass rusher they always wanted Grant Wistrom to be, and Marcus Trufant is back. Also, Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, and its not like Jackson’s loss kills Seattle, they’ve been playing without him for half of the last 2 seasons. The Bucs are the Bucs, and lately, that’s not a good thing to be. They are desperate to get younger at defense, but Gaines Adams isn’t even a starter yet, and Simeon Rice was let go. It’ll be interesting to see if Cadillac Williams comes back to have a solid season in his 3rd try, but I don’t see much in terms of competition between these two clubs. Take the Hawks at home, they always win in Seattle.
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