Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 5

I struggled through my free picks last week, winning a whopping two, but I was over .500 on my Elite Picks, as a few of you very well know. I have my money on a winning bet in both my Free and Elite picks this week. Really, I have my money on them. Here’s how we’re getting rich… I have a feeling this is going to be a big week. The places and times I got the lines are listed below.

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-16):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I have to take the Patriots here. I know the Browns have put up points, but week after week it seems like those they’ve put up points against don’t have defenses as strong as we all once figured. Well, the Patriots do have a defenses that good, and their offense might be even better. They definitely complement themselves. I hate huge spreads, but the Patriots deserve that big of a cushion. They are that good. I see a 42-14 game in New England, as a down week doesn’t seem like a reality with this team of professionals.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Tough game to call, both the Redskins and Lions have played above what I expected this year. Detroit’s defense played better last week, but they were going up against a pathetic Bears offense, so I don’t know how much can be said about that. The Redskins are coming off a bye, which doesn’t seem to help as much when byes are earlier in the season, but that gives them a slight edge. I guess I like the Lions to ride out their hot-streak, here, because I’m still not convinced that the Washington Redskins are a force on either side of the ball. I do know that the Lions play against the run better than many give them credit for, and that will help against Portis and company. In this tough one, I’ll take the road team and the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (-10)
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I’m not sure what to expect out of the Bucs and Colts this week. Will we get a dominant performance out of the Colts? Or will they play like they did against the Texans and Titans? That’s a tough call, and one you have to think about when betting for or against the Colts. The way I see it, Indy has a tough time against lesser opponents, and the Bucs seem to be one of the better teams in the NFC this season. With that in mind, and the fact that John Gruden came into Tampa taking Tony Dungy’s job, you’d have to think that the Colts players try to come out and embarrass the Bucs organization. I’m not sure Tampa, as well as they’ve played this year, is ready for that.

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

This game is very tough for me, but I have to believe the San Diego Chargers figure it out sooner rather than later. The Broncos haven’t played that well, even when given week after week of big rushing performances by Travis Henry. San Diego might be able to stop a hobbled Chargers rushing game, and I know Denver can’t do the same to LT. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game came down to a field goal at the end. Elam’s been questionable on all his kicks from my point of view, so I’ll roll the dice on the kid in San Diego, and a big “must win” for the Chargers.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

The Ravens have looked pretty bad on defense, and even worse at punching in touchdowns on offense. They take their best offensive player out on the goal line (McGahee) and their play calling has been predictable at best. Luckily, they go to San Francisco to play a reeling Niners team that has lost 2 straight. San Francisco will have Trent Dilfer on offense, and you can bet the Ravens’ staff will have the book on him. I like Baltimore to realize what they are by beating the Niners by running the ball, and sending the world at Dilfer.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

The Bears are getting last years’ lines. The Packers are the better team this year, if the Bears start Grossman or Griese. Talk about questions in Chicago, the downfall of the Bears is getting more attention than the playoff Cubs. That’s a stunner. I like what Brett has done this year, but the Packers defense is what gets me getty. They are young and fly around making plays with the best of them. What really has me going Green Bay’s way is the Bears’ coaching questions each week. Every single week I’ve heard, “We need to get Hester more involved,” or “We need to get Greg Olsen in the game more,” or “We should win games instead of lose them.” Thanks for the ideas, now instead of claiming that you need to do one or the other, what do you think about just doing it? Take the Packers resurgence to continue.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Despite what I think about the Hawks, (they are very good), the fact is that they aren’t a very good road team, and seem to struggle against the AFC (like every NFC team). Also, this isn’t Trent Dilfer and the 49ers offense, this is the Steelers, a unit that is coming off a huge upset at the hands of their former coach. They are going to come out pissed and ready to go. Everything is working against the Hawks in this one, there’s no sense of urgency on their part, they’re away from Seattle, and that whole Super Bowl refereeing stick in the spokes is history. Look for Willie Parker to have a day.

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