Tag Archives: 2007

Week 11 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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For the 2nd week in a row, I was breaking out winners left and right – in both my free picks and my elite section. I finished 6-2-1 with my elite picks, and as you’ll soon see, I snagged 5 wins 2 loss and a tie in 7 games of free picks as well. Hope you profited off my winning ways! Here’s the review.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

It was a pretty easy cover. The Jaguars were up by a couple touchdowns, and Maurice Jones Drew was showing why 5’7″ guys can have power. He bulldozed his way in for a touchdown, and put Shawne Merriman on his can with a huge block that allowed David Garrard to throw his 2nd touchdown. The Jaguars showed that they were the better team, and they won the game by a touchdown. My first win was a big one.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: win
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Bodog)

“The Colts will still win, but the Chiefs defense is pretty solid, and Ty Law has been kryptonite to Peyton Super-Man-ing for some time now. I hope Priest has a big game, but either way, I think this one should be a low scoring closer affair.” (Me) Priest actually got hurt, which puts his career in jeopardy, and kind of puts a little bad feeling on this victory for me. The Colts needed a last second field goal to get this win, and they were obviously struggling for much of the game. The Chiefs played solid defense, but it wasn’t enough, as they fell 13-10. I hope Priest turns out okay, he has always been one hell of a player.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game ended up being closer than I thought, but I still pulled out the big win. I’m pretty sure the Pack won by 14 when all was said and done. Green Bay killed the Panthers, though, as the game definitely wasn’t that close. Brett Favre is really playing some amazing football, and with Ryan Grant running hard, the offensive balance is fun to watch.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This was a real tough game for me to call, and a late Redskin touchdown put this game on their side against the spread. The Cowboys ended up winning, but they needed 4 touchdown passes from Tony Romo to Terrell Owens to make sure. Jason Campbell played well for the Skins, and they came up a Hail-Mary short of winning this game. My first loss of the day! Darn it.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+10): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

“I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in football, but after big wins they seem to take a step backward. Maybe it’s their comfort level with their new coach, or the feeling that they are unbeatable after a nice home stand. Either way, they struggle on the road, and struggle after big wins. They play a “seemingly easy opponent” this week, which leads me to believe that they’ll come out slow. Kellen Clemens opens up a lot of things for the Jets, and in his second game starting, he’ll be ready to attack the Steelers’ secondary. Big things. Big upset? I’m not so sure, but I’ll take the home team with 10 points.” Well, I can’t say I didn’t warn you guys. Prior to the game, the above quoted section is exactly what I wrote down for why I was taking the Jets. The Steelers came out slow, and it ended up killing them in the end. Plus, they lost Holmes and Polamalu for their next game against Miami. Does that mean that they’ll struggle against the Dolphins?

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I’m completely blaming Carson Palmer for this loss. Palmer threw 4 interceptions, against the Cardinals. Gross. They lost by a touchdown and a two point conversion, so take away any one of those picks, and the Bengals might have very well put this game into overtime. Two of the picks went back for touchdowns, which makes Palmer’s day even worse. He’s way better than he’s been playing. Bungles got me again!

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10): push
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

There were some late lines that had the Eagles at -9.5, and I hope you picked that up. If you were like me and got -10, then you pushed. If you had a book that was -10.5 or greater, you got hosed by yet another Donovan McNabb injury. Will that guy ever stay completely healthy for an entire season? Either way, this one pushed for me.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-1.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

Vince Young actually had a huge day, but the Titans couldn’t contain the Broncos precision passing attack (Cutler was 16-21 with 200 yards and a couple of long scores) and they gave up too many big plays (all 4 Bronco touchdowns were of 40 yards or more). Poor tackling and bad angles played a huge roll in this loss for the Titans, and I’m happy to say I was on the Broncos side this time around. It did make me happy to see Splinter call a timeout before Bironis’s field goal right before the half, have him miss it, then re-kick it, and make it. Interesting. I knew that would happen, and if I’m not mistaken, I predicted it might just happen to him. Anyway, 5-2-1 – Another solid winning day in the big house.

Free College Football Picks Week 13 – 2007

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Two weeks left, and I need to pick up the slack to do my damn thing. I have 5 featured games and 10 free picks overall with my 3rd straight week dealing out my 5 free dogs. Rock and roll em!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 13

Virginia Tech Hokies (-3.5) @ Virginia Cavaliers:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Va-Tech has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two ACC programs. Also, The Hokies have absolutely dominated opponents since their unpredictable last minute loss at the hands of the Boston College Eagles. They killed Georgia Tech, FSU, and Miami in back to back to back games, and honestly, they just look a lot better than they were earlier in the season. I know Virginia wins a lot of football games, and plays tight with everyone, but I think the Hokies are just on another level in this one.

Tulane Green Wave @ East Carolina Pirates (-12):
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

I liked the Green Wave last week, and I took them for a victorious ride around the block, but East Carolina has too much offensive power for any sort of Greenish wave to stop. The Pirates are coming off a tough loss to Marshall on the road, and Tulane is all getty about their current two game winning streak (the first time they’ve won back to back games this season). I don’t see this one being close.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Kentucky Wildcats (-3):
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Vols lucked out big time when Vanderbilt new who they were, didn’t crown them, but left them off the hook nonetheless. Tennessee won their 4th straight, and they were lucky to do so. First of all, that’s too many wins in a row for the inconsistent Volunteers, and Kentucky hasn’t played great football in any of their last 3 games. That being said, I’m almost sure this thing will even out with a pretty big Wildcat win on Saturday.

Texas El Paso Minors @ Central Florida Knights (-19):
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

I have a feeling the Minors will fall victim for the 5th time in a row, and lose their 5th game against the spread in the their last 6 chances. Call me crazy, but the Knights can put up points with the best of them, and Texas El Paso, while they’ve managed more than a few close games, they haven’t played any good teams well. The Knights are good, despite their 64-12 loss to South Florida. What can I say? Every team has a bad game.

Florida Atlantic Owls (-11.5) @ Florida International Golden Panthers:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Golden Panthers wouldn’t win against Duke, and the Owls are actually a pretty good football team. While FAU hasn’t won many games by 12 points or more (1 to be exact) they also haven’t played a team even close to as bad as the Panthers. The Owls will toss 4 or 5 touchdown passes while the Panthers fall behind, only compounding their inefficiencies by throwing interceptions that result in more points for the Owls. It’s a tangled web they weave…

Five Free Dogs to Walk!

Boise State Broncos (+3.5) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: (Friday)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: BetEd)

Wyoming Cowboys (+3) @ Colorado State Rams: (Friday)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Utah Utes (+4.5) @ BYU Cougars:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Connecticut Huskies (+17.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3)

Week 10 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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“We finally get into the double digits, and if you know my game, this is where I start making up for any early season blunders.” How’s 7-0 for a start to the double digit weeks? Check in next week as I try to continue my run to the fortune 100… Here’s my review.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans: win
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jaguars just imposed their will on the Titans, and some of it probably had to do with Albert Haynesworth being out of the game. However, the Jags just wanted this one more, and it came down to losing the season opener on their own home-field against these very Titans. These teams are so even that the little things, like redemption, are so important going into a game like this. The Jags won, and I won big.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs: win
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: SBG Global)

“From the sound of it, the Broncos are ready to play up to their potential. Denver has been down for most of the year, despite one game against the Steelers, and they very well could have lost that game. Anyhow, Denver has the talent to compete with the best, and I think they’ll put the Chiefs away with relative ease at Sunday’s game in Kansas City.” This was definitely a pretty easy win for the Broncos. Selvin Young filled in nicely for Travis (THC) Henry and Jay Cutler did enough of his thing for the Broncos to get the W. However, the key in this game was the Broncos defense, a unit that finally stepped up when they needed to.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints: win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

“Honestly, I don’t think the Rams will need half this many points, but I’ll take all 13 and a half of them from 5Dimes. I think the Rams could pull the biggest upset of the week by finally notching their first win against a Saints’ team that comes in with way too much hype for what they’ve accomplished thus far. What have they done? After 4 straight losses, they have a good 1st half against one of the more schizophrenic teams in the NFL (Seattle) and hold on to beat them by 11. Then they sneak by Atlanta (22-16) and probably would have lost if Leftwich hadn’t been hurt (he was torching the Saints’ secondary, believe it or not) and then they beat a terrible San Francisco team in Alex Smith’s first game since his injury, and the game was very close in Jacksonville last week (despite the 41-24 score), and Quinn Gray was calling plays for the Jaguars. Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to lose their survivor pools by taking the Saints in this one.” Yes sir! You have to admit, when I call ’em, I definitely call ’em… The Saints took a lot of survivor hopefuls out when they came in playing like sour piss on their home field. They didn’t knock me out of my survivor pool – but the Colts did – suckers. Well, a win for me here, and a perfect analysis, has me feeling pretty smart.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Washington Redskins: win
(Line: Monday, 7:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“Now that everyone thinks the Eagles are completely lost without a chance of every returning or becoming part of any sort of playoff picture, I think they’ll play a lot better. Regardless of what Andy Reid thinks, his problems have effected the team, and questions surrounding Donovan McNabb have also been swirling. All those things are pretty meaningless now that everyone and their mother thinks the Eagles are done.” I’m telling you, watch out for the Eagles, until people start talking about them making the playoffs, then they could struggle. I still think the Eagles are good enough to compete with the best in the East, and they’ll have a couple games to prove themselves moving forward. This was a huge win for the Eagles, McNabb, and Andy Reid.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

The Bengals kicked a bunch of field goals and never scored one single touchdown, but they still easily beat the Ravens 21-7. Seven field goals… Gnarly. Cincinnati took advantage of the Ravens’ offense absolutely sucking. Yeah, that could be the worst unit in football. Chris Henry did play for the Bengals, as he came right in and led the team in receiving with 99 yards. Do I think the Bengals can fight their way back into the playoff picture? No chance – but they are definitely good enough to outscore the Ravens – that we’ve learned.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: win
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I hope you didn’t fade the public in this one. The Raiders couldn’t do much in any facet of their offense, and the Bears, behind Rex Grossman (yes, you heard that correctly) no tched a road win in Oakland. Benson didn’t impress me much, rushing for only 76 yards on 29 carries (that’s a gross average, just trust me) but he did enough, and Rex Grossman completed a deep pass to Bernard Berrien for a big score to put a fat stainless steel nail in the coffin. Justin Fargas had another solid game for the Raiders, but Josh McCown was pretty much useless, completing just over half his passes for 108 measly yards and an interception. The Bears went to 4-5 with a 17-6 win, making me 6-0 on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-10): win
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Hawks looked good in their initial phasing out of Shaunna Alexander, shutting down the 49ers to the tune of 24-0. The game wasn’t close, and the Hawks didn’t have to score much in the 2nd half to put this game out of reach, so the over wasn’t reached. The Hawks dominated this game from the moment Alex Smith missed a wide open Darrell Jackson streaking down the right side of the field for a sure touchdown. After that, it looked like the 49ers were lost. Frank Gore, who many have said had a bad game, rushed only 13 times for 73 yards – which doesn’t seem to bad to me. What I do know is that the 49ers are always behind, which limits their ability to use Frank.

Free College Football Picks Week 12 – 2007

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After a .500 mark in Week 11, the 12th week of the NCAA Football Season is starting down the path of success. I looked early and love some lines, but thinking they would move in my favor the closer we get to Saturday’s action, I waited some big games out. Some of my line movement predictions held true, and some stayed the same, but I think I have a nice card this weekend. Here they are, from favorites to dogs, big conference games, and little meaningless games that will prove to be big winners. Here are my free picks for week 12.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 12

West Virginia Moutaineers @ Cincinnati Bearcats (+6):
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: SBG Belmont)

I like the Bearcats to pull yet another Big East upset here. I think these teams are a lot closer than many people think, and that will show on Saturday. The Bearcats play well at home, and are just a flat out speedy team that will match up well with West Virginia.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-11.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Pittsburgh has really surprised me a few tiems this season, and beating an absolutely horrendous Syracuse team (20-17) a couple weeks ago wasn’t one of those times. The Panther’s win over Cincinnati is probably the most amazing thing I’ve encountered this season. See, I thin the Panthers are terrible – hence they lost to Navy, got beat by 30 at Virginia, and 3 of their 4 wins came against Navy, Grambling, and Eastern Michigan. I just think the Scarlet Knights are too good everywhere on the field for Pittsburgh to hang around. I know they’re young, and getting more mature late in the season, but that team will get embarrassed by their Big East foe from New Jersey.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Kansas Jayhawks (-26):
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: WSEX)

The Cyclones are one of the worst teams in college football, despite playing well in a big game or two this season (close game against Oklahoma and a win over Iowa come to mind) but they have also absolutely sucked against superb offense (which the Jayhawks definitely have). Todd Reesing (KU’s QB) has 26 TD passes and only 4 interceptions, and Kansas has been even more amazing at home this season, outscoring opponents 52-7, 62-0, 45-13, 55-3, 58-10, and 76-39. I know those opponents have been brutal, but what’s the difference between one of those terrible foes and the Cyclones? They are all bad. Look for Kansas to get their 11th win and easily stay undefeated.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7.5) @ Georgia Bulldogs:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Wildcats have been solid on the road, 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS. They are, in my opinion, the more balanced team, and have more consistency all over the field. Kentucky has lost 3 of their last 5 games, but wins over LSU and at Vanderbilt have allowed the Wildcats to keep on keeping on. They’ve only lost two games by more than 8 points, and consistently press the offensive action until opposing defense crumble. The Wildcats have scored less than 23 points once all season long, while Georgia has been held under 26 points 4 times this season. I think this game is too much of a toss up to ignore the chance to get the Wildcats as more than a touchdown dogs. I think last week’s dumping of Auburn will actually work against the Bulldogs in this game.

Duke Blue Devils (+6) @ Notre Dame:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

I never thought I’d be taking Duke to beat the Fighting Irish, but there’s not much fighting about these Irish kids. The whole team is crumbling, and the coaching staff is being questioned on every decision, recruiting blunder, and crushing loss. Think how terrible this loss would be for the Irish. A loss to the Duke Blue Devils is crushing for any program, but one as grand as the historic Notre Dame Fighting Irish? Two losses to military schools and a home loss to Duke – yes, this could be a mystical seasons for those anti-Irish guys.

Five Free Dogs to Walk!

Maryland Terrapins (+7.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+8.5):
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Bodog)

Tulane Green Wave (+2) @ Rice Owls:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Northwestern Wildcats (+13.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Idaho Vandals (+34.5) @ Boise State Broncos:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Week 11 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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11 is hardly even, but 1 and 1 is even, and that makes 11, and 5-5 is the same as 1-1 as both are .500… Thank you sadistic number crunching version of John Madden. The way it goes, I finished the Week at .500 with my free picks, as my 5 free dogs did the most damage, pulling me even on the week. This is how it went down.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 11 (2-3) (3-2) (5-5)

Michigan State Spartans @ Purdue Boilermakers (-4): loss
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: Belmont)

Michigan State looked pissed off about last week’s loss to the Wolverines, and probably more importantly Mike Hart’s comments about them being the little brother. Well, they stepped right back up and put the Boilermakers in a strangle hold, which helped me toss my money out the window.

Indiana Hoosiers (-2) @ Northwestern Wildcats: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

In another huge surprise for me, the Wildcats actually won a football game against a solid opponent. The Hoosiers were stuck admiring their success from last week’s game, and crumbled in this one. A game I thought was a sure win ended in blood and tears for Ole Lucky Lester.

North Carolina @ North Carolina State (-3.5): win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

North Carolina fought hard after falling way being early in this game, but they couldn’t get close enough to bust my balls, losing by 4 to the Wolfpack. NC State just can’t finish off games, even when their very well being depends on it. They managed a win here, but didn’t impress me much, and nearly gave me a heart attack while doing so. In the end, they gave me a much needed win.

South Florida Bulls (-16) @ Syracuse Orange: win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Weird, the Bulls absolutely destroyed, sausage rolled, or straight train wrecked the Syracuse moldy Orange. South Flordia was just too good, and they put up 40 points. No way the Orange were about to get close to that number. A big win for me.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+9) @ Clemson Tigers: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

Despite my hopes that Clemson would fall back to their losing ways, the Tigers stepped up in a must win game to smash the Deacons of Wake Forest. This game wasn’t close, ever, and Wake Forest just looked outmanned and outcoached from the very get go. Like I said, I knew Clemson was the better team, I was just expecting the implosion that usually comes late in the season from the Tigers. Maybe next week?

Five Free Dogs! 3-2

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (+5.5): win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodog)

Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers (+3): win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodog)

Illinois Fighting Illini (+15.5) @ Ohio State Buckeyes: win
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodog)

Connecticut Huskies (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bearcats: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6.5) @ Texas Longhorns: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

5-5 Even Steven!

Week 9 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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After a huge Week 8, week 9 brought me down quick… I was killed by half points, single points, 2 points… Every little thing went wrong in most games, injuries hurt me, and of course, the Chargers killed me for the billionth time this season. This is how it went down…

Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders (-3): loss
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“This is a very tough game for me. First and foremost, I don’t think the Raiders should ever be favored, but this might be the exception to the rule.” Apparently, it wasn’t the exception to the rule after all – it’s official, the raiders, win or lose, should never be favored in any game. Defensively they are bad, and offensively neither McCown nor Culpepper can get enough done to make wins happen. You might see JaMarcus Russell next week in Oakland.

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ N.Y. Jets: loss
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Half a point… That sucks. Damn overtime field goals to lose games by a half a point. LT’s the only guy who ever runs for a touchdown to end a game in overtime, otherwise you’re going to get a 3 point game, and waiting with a half a point cushion is a painful thing in that instance. The Redskins win, but not by enough to make me a winner.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): win
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

It’s nice to get a win here and there during a very tough week. Earnest Graham had a lot of carries and 125 yards for the Bucs, and Arizona couldn’t do anything on the ground or through the air against a Tampa defense that came out tough, and stayed dominate all day long. It’s nice to get a win here an there, like I said.

New England Patriots (-5) @ Indianapolis Colts: loss
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

One point… That sucks. The Patriots really didn’t play like the better team in this one, they just got it done when they had to. They definitely looked beatable, and the Colts looked like the younger and faster team – even more physical on the offensive line. This might be the battle we see for the AFC Championship game – both these teams are very good.

San Diego Chargers (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings: loss
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I thought I was gold when Cromartie took that field goal back for 109.5 yards and a touchdown right before the half. Little did I know, I was in for the bad side of an NFL record breaking day by a rookie. Adrian “King of the World” Peterson ran all over the Chagers in the 2nd half. He finished the night with one more yard (296) than Jamal Lewis’s 295 yards a few years back. Peterson is the real deal, and a special player – see him when you can. LT and the Chargers fell again – and they always seem to kill me.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns: loss
(Line: Monday, 4:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

One and a half points… That sucks. The Hawks are probably the toughest team for me to watch in the entire NFL. I expect decent things out of their roster, but when the really need to stop someone, they can’t, and when they really need a yard, there’s no way they get it if they use one of their running backs to get it. They traded D-Jack for a 4th round pick last season, I think they’ll be lucky to get a 4th rounder for Shaunna. This game, among the ones you see above, was one of the 3 games I lost by 2 points or less.

Baltimore Ravens (+10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: loss
(Line: Monday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

Forget this game… Well, at least I blew my 7-1 week perfectly with a 1-7 week, comes out even but also looks really bad. Now I definitely have some work to do.

Free College Football Picks Week 11 – 2007

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Week 10 wasn’t successful, but you win some and you lose some – that’s the nitty gritty. For week 11’s action, I have 5 free underdog sides that I’m posting after my 5 free picks, as a sort of double pick bonus for the week of double snake eyes. Celebrating the 11 weeks of my Free College picks thus far this season. Enjoy the big wins! Ride those dogs!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 11

Michigan State Spartans @ Purdue Boilermakers (-4):
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: SBG Belmont)

Michigan State is 1-3 on the road, while the Boilermakers are 5-1 at home. State has always been a poor road team, and obviously Purdue feels most comfortable in front of their home crowd. Weird. Purdue’s offense and overall team make-up is much more impressive than the Spartans unit that seems to be wearing down fast after losing 5 of their last 6 ball games. The games have all been close, but that kind of wear and tear on a football teams’ mental psyche can certainly have an impact. Always getting close and always coming short can only allow you so many “moral victories”. Those kind of wins are over in Michigan State – Purdue will assist that assurance.

Indiana Hoosiers (-2) @ Northwestern Wildcats
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Hoosiers are the much better team here. Some expect a let down after the Hoosiers got a much needed win over Ball State last week, but I don’t see it. They’ve handled every bad team they’ve played all season long, and a couple decent squads as well. They have 4 losses on the season, all to Big 10 contenders, Wisconsin, Penn State, Mich State, and Illinois. The Wildcats shouldn’t put up much of a fight, despite the Hoosiers two game road losing streak. They still beat Iowa in Iowa. Look for Kellen Lewis and James Hardy to hook up for a couple TD passes that seal the deal, and the 7th win for Indiana. Indy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and they haven’t lost a game that they’ve been favored in all season long.

North Carolina @ North Carolina State (-3.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

North Carolina played around with the idea that they were back in the mix as a solid college football program, but like many pretenders realize, the early months can mask the reality of the matter, and a few close games haven’t amounted to anything in terms of their record. They sit at 3-6. North Carolina State has played better and better as the season has moved forward, while the Tarheels struggled besides a win against Miami, and a win over Maryland last week. This week, they go on the road, where they’ve been terrible thus far. They lost at East Carolina in Week 2, at South Florida (10-37) in Week 4, at VaTech in Week 5, and at Wake Forest (10-37) in Week 8. They are 0-4 on the road. NC State should win by 10.

South Florida Bulls (-16) @ Syracuse Orange:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Syracuse is bad, and the Bulls are a solid football team. Sure, they have struggled of late, but they won’t turn the ball over like they did last week, and I don’t see the Orange doing much in terms of stopping South Florida either. Defensively, I expect 10 points or less out of the Orange, which means 27 points from SF will win it. They’ve scored at least that much in 6 of their 9 games. This will be the 7th time.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+9) @ Clemson Tigers:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

I’m pretty sure this is the game Clemson always loses. Yep, they tease the public into believing they are for real, win some big games, and then fold like a freaking lawn chair. I don’t know how to see it any other way, the Deacons are no pushover, and they play their best ball when their opponent is supposed to be a big favorite. Over the last 3 seasons, the Tigers are 15-19 ATS as a favorite. And while they are 11-2 SU in games where they are favored by 7.5 or more over the last three seasons, the Tigers don’t seem to play well when they are playing in a game that will decide the difference between a very nice season, and a Clemson-like mediocre campaign.

Five Free Dogs!

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (+5.5)
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodog)

Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers (+3):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodoglife)

Illinois Fighting Illini (+15.5) @ Ohio State Buckeyes:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodoglife)

Connecticut Huskies (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bearcats:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6.5) @ Texas Longhorns:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Week 10 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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10 looks good when you consider I only lost one game. However, when the realization comes that I only won two contests, the real story starts to come out. Two pushes and a couple wins isn’t all that bad, but ties sure can be frustrating. Honestly, I’ll take the ties, it’s the brutal beat I had on the Badger/Buckeye game that has me still turning. Here’s my NCAA Football Review for Week 10…

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 10

Wisconsin Badgers (+16) @ Ohio State Buckeyes: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

This game was a joke…. Up 17-10 midway through the 3rd quarter – tied at 17 with 10 minutes to go in the 4th – And Wisconsin goes for a fake punt on their own 20 yard line, doesn’t get it, and then loses by just enough to make me a loser… That’s one of the worst beats I’ve had all season long.

Ball State Cardinals @ Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Indiana absolutely annihilated the Cardinals in the 2nd half of this game. This win was as easy as they get.

Purdue Boilermakers (+7) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: push
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

The refs were absolutely brutal in this game. A kid runs out of bounds, and the referee keeps the clock running. That cost Purdue about 45 seconds, maybe even more, and they didn’t have enough time to do anything but throw up a hail mary in the last few seconds. I wasn’t guaranteed a win or anything, but at least I had a chance if Zebra doesn’t blow it for me. Bummer.

Navy Midshipmen (+3.5) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: win
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

OT – just that right there got me excited. Haha – how far the Irish have fallen, overtime game against Navy – haha. Finally, after more than 40 yeas, the Irish have fallen to the Midshipmen from Navy, and I was on this one. I love it. A 3 OT thriller in which the Irish got a gift pass interference call on their first two point conversion, but fell short from the 1 and a half yard line to lose. This was one hell of a game.

Maryland Terrapins (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels: push
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: BodogLife)

It wasn’t quite what I expected, but the 3 poitns ended up saving my tail. The Tar Heels couldn’t score late, and the Terps chipped away field goal after field goal, finishing a 3 pointer short of overtime. 2 wins, 2 pushes, and a single loss – well, it could have been worse.

Free College Football Picks Week 10 – 2007

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Week 9 wasn’t as nice as week 8, but after a couple very bad beats, I broke out with a couple wins in 5 chances anyway. This week, I’m rolling with the underdog in 4 out of 5, and I think my might will be just right. College Football is a crazy thing, like Robin Williams and Martin Lawrence combined into one. Check out my free picks, I think you’ll make a buck or two.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 10

Wisconsin Badgers (+16) @ Ohio State Buckeyes:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

Don’t look at the Buckeye-Nittany Lion score and just think, “well, this game has to be a blowout, too” – that’s not how college football works. Wisconsin is playing well right now, and will look to get back in the hunt by beating numero uno on Saturday. I don’t think it will happen, but 16 points is too many to give the Badgers in this big time Big 10 showdown.

Ball State Cardinals @ Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

After losing 3 straight to Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin, you can be the Hoosiers will be happy to see a non-powerhouse coming into their home stadium. If the Hoosiers had won last week, I’d think a let down was in order, but after 3 straight losses, this Hoosier team that is pretty solid, will be looking for a big win here. Unfortunately for Ball State, that’s coming down on them.

Purdue Boilermakers (+7) @ Penn State Nittany Lions:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, I think last weeks big loss will have them down in the dumps, and they’ll be looking at this game like, “at least we don’t have to play the Buckeyes this week” and that’s no good when you’re taking on Purdue. The Boilermakers are better than people give them credit for. At 7-2, Purdue’s only losses have come to Michigan and Ohio State. These two teams are actually very similar in skill, just at different spots. Penn State has won 8 of the last 10 against the Boilermakers, but I see Purdue winning outright in Happy Valley, just to turn that stat around a little bit. Penn State just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to pass with the Boilermakers. If Purdue’s quick defensive front 7 can stop Penn State’s rushing attack, this game will be a blowout of the home team.

Navy Midshipmen (+3.5) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Like I said earlier, unless Duke is in town, the Irish shouldn’t be a favorite against anyone, especially a team as disciplined and mistake free as the Midshipmen. What will Notre Dame capitalize on? Nothing. I don’t think the Irish can put together multiple scoring drives, and thus it’ll be tough to beat anyone. Even Duke.

Maryland Terrapins (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: BodogLife)

The Terps are much better than the Tar Heels. This North Carolina team played pretty damn tough to start the year, but they have been fading into the team they are more comfortable with, a team that struggles from the get go. I like the Terps to win this game outright, and while it might be a close game early on, I just don’t thin the Tar Heels will have the willpower to step up when they get punched in the mouth – heck, it’s basketball season soon, isn’t it?

Week 8 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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A HUGE WEEK for Lucky Lester… Talk about bringing in the big bucks. After a slow start to the season, I pulled off a killer Week 8 and I’m feeling good going into Week 9. The double digits always seem to do me well. Anyway, how good was I? 6-1 with my free picks and 7-1 with my elite package. That’s a lot of wins and a couple losses. Check out my free pick review below.

Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Loss (only one)
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Steven Jackson’s injury seemed to crush the Rams, as the threat of running the ball was all but gone, and the Browns focused in on allowing nothing on the ground. St. Louis spent much of the game on top, but couldn’t pull it out, losing a close one by a touchdown.

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Chicago Bears: WINNER
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

“A straight up win by the Lions wouldn’t surprise me.” There were lots of things I liked about this game, the way the Lions were playing defense coming in, the confidence they had, and the lack of it in Chicago – and the way the Lions had been asserting themselves on the ground. It all worked out, and the Lions made the Bears and Brian Greise look bad in my first win of the good Sunday.

Oakland Raiders (+9) @ Tennessee Titans: WINNER
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: 5Dimes)

This deal was too good to pass up, and the Raiders almost had this one anyway. Oakland plays in their fair share of close games, as do the Titans, the difference is, Vince and his Titans find ways to win, while the Raiders are the Raiders… They were good enough to get me a win though, that’s always appreciated.

Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers (-10): WINNER
(Line: Monday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

This was a killing. I thought the Texans would be a little better through the air, but instead, they gave away points when they tried to pass. They didn’t run the ball all that well either, and the game was over at half time. Another win for Ole Lucky.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: WINNER
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Belmont)

“The Saints have dug themselves a hole deep enough that they can’t walk into any game thinking they can skate and win.” I don’t know what New Orleans was doing to start the season, but they looked pretty good against a decent 49ers secondary. The entire San Francisco team looks to be going through the motions, which is killing 49er fans and from the looks of it, Frank Gore as well. I do know that Colston is back doing what he does best, jumping over people’s heads and catching touchdowns. Got me a good win.

Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots (-16): WINNER
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

“I think the Redskins have the best defense the Patriots have faced thus far, but that doesn’t mean they will have trouble scoring. New England has made it look easy this season, and while this game might have a few more twists and turns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots held the Redskins to 7-10 points. That means the Patriots would have to score 27 points to surely cover, something I think is very possible, especially with such a young quarterback running the show for the Redskins. New England’s defense is so tactical that they always seem to take the strongest part of opposing offenses out of their game. That means the Redskins’ rushing attack will have to go through walls to succeed. That puts a lot of pressure on Campbell. Yes, the Patriots are this good.” I called it, didn’t I? Well, from what I’ve seen so far, the Patriots receivers are wide open against bad defenses and just regular open against good defenses. This team is a machine, and stop the talk about running up the score, or they have it coming to them – they play football, they play it hard, they play it for 60 minutes – why do people always have to find something to get pissed about. Brady crushed, the defense destroyed the Redskins’ rushing attack, and Jason Campbell was pressured into too many mistakes. This game wasn’t ever close.

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers: WINNER
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

Another win for a great team, weird. This one was easy. The Colts are very good and the Panthers were way overrated. Even as touchdown dogs, the Panthers rarely play well at home, and they had Grandfather time playing quarterback. That’s no way to win games in the NFL, and if you bet on the Panthers, you didn’t do your homework. This was one of my top 2 bets of the week in my elite package. I hope you rocked it this week! My 6-1 Free Picks felt very nice.