Tag Archives: 2007

Week 9 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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I had some tough luck on Saturday, and that shows with all that good karma I had coming my way on Sunday (12-2 overall in my NFL picks). Anyway, check out my review and maybe you’ll be convinced that my 2-3 should have very well been a 4-1.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Review

Free Picks: Week 9

Minnesota Golden Gophers (+23.5) @ Michigan Wolverines: loss
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

With Michigan up 10-0 with a few minutes gone in the 2nd quarter, I liked my chances, basically up 33 points… Chances? Well, they were crushed when the Wolverines shutout the Gophers 34-0 after that, and I lost this 23.5 point game by half a damn point. Talk about bitter, that was like drinking pure cranberry juice after rinsing with Listerine. It was Carlos Brown’s 85 yard touchdown run with 9 minutes left in the 4th that killed me, well, aside from Minnesota going 45 minutes without a score, that hurt as well. Tough game to lose, even tougher to watch.

Florida International @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-39): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

“There are a lot of points on the board here, but the Razorbacks are going to be very close to shutting out FLINT, and I think McFadden, Jones, and company can put up 7 or 8 touchdowns. That will be enough in this one. ” Well, Flint put up 10, but as I imagined, the Razorbacks were ready to destroy Flint, rolling them by 48 and a much needed win for good Ole Lucky Lester.

Arizona Wildcats @ Washington Huskies (-3.5): loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Talk about an absolutely brutal finish for Washington Husky backers such as myself. Since the opening day win over Syracuse (a game I picked) the Dogs have killed me one way or the other. This one I thought was well in hand, when I turned the channel up 41-26 half way through the 4th. Boy was I wrong. The Wildcats scored quick, then the Dog continued the collapse by fumbling on their own half of the field. The Cats punched that one in as well, and a two point conversion tied it. Still, the Huskies wasted another chance, and the Wildcats put together a touchdown drive to take the lead. 22 points in the 4th quarter – when will these Huskies learn? Better yet, when will I learn?

Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats (-24.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

“Kansas State is too good for the Baylor Bears. The Wildcats do all the little things right, and that’s the type of team that kills Baylor. It may seem like a lot of points, and I understand that, but the Bears haven’t lost a game by less than 20 points all season long. 5 losses, all by 20 points or more. I like the Wildcats in that situation.” Chalk it up as 6 losses and still by 20 points or more, one by 38 points, this one, a 51-13 stomping by the Kansas State Wildcats. And Baylor scored in the 4th, late. This was a good win.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Texas Longhorns (-20.5): loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

This was the only loss I think I picked wrong on Saturday. Yes, basically, I’m saying this is the only pick I would have changed after watching Saturday’s game. The Longhorns were in a lull, and the Cornhuskers played their best football of the season. I should have at least felt that possibly coming, and just left this game alone. The other games, I would pick the same if I had the chance to do it again.

Free College Football Picks Week 9 – 2007

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I had a nice Week 8, saying that a 4-1 record was all but guaranteed. Weird, I finished 4-1. Well, this week, I’m not guaranteeing anything, but I feel pretty strongly about my plays, and you should to. Check out my free picks, and for a small fee, my elite picks are solid as well.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Minnesota Golden Gophers (+23.5) @ Michigan Wolverines:
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

This game hasn’t finished with a 23 point difference since 1996 – and I don’t think this is the year Michigan changes that. Minnesota is the best 1-win team in college football. I don’t think Minnesota will pull out another underdog game-buster, like App State did in Week 1, but let’s not go crazy and say the Gophers suck because they lost to a D1-AA team last week. Uh, so did the Wolverines, remember? Take the Gophers and all those points.

Florida International @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-39):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

There are a lot of points on the board here, but the Razorbacks are going to be very close to shutting out FLINT, and I think McFadden, Jones, and company can put up 7 or 8 touchdowns. That will be enough in this one.

Arizona Wildcats @ Washington Huskies (-3.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Huskies have struggled to find wins after their 2-0 start. In fact, wins have been downright impossible to find, despite some quality performances against some very good football teams. They’ve been tied or up at or after half time in each of their 5 losses, and those 5 losses haven’t come against shmucks. Aside from a loss to the undefeated in the Pac 10 Bruins, the Huskies haven’t lost to a team not ranked in the Top 25. In fact, each of those 4 losses have come to teams in the Top 10. That’s a dirty schedule. I think the Huskies will put two halves together against the Wildcats, and notch their 3rd win of the season. The toughest part of their season is over, this is where the wins start to come.

Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats (-24.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

Kansas State is too good for the Baylor Bears. The Wildcats do all the little things right, and that’s the type of team that kills Baylor. It may seem like a lot of points, and I understand that, but the Bears haven’t lost a game by less than 20 points all season long. 5 losses, all by 20 points or more. I like the Wildcats in that situation.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Texas Longhorns (-20.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

Nebraska isn’t stepping up and beating anyone any time soon. That whole program is in the dumps, and the kids no longer believe they can win. That’s not something that can help Cornhuskers chances against a very good Longhorn team. The Longhorns haven’t kicked any good teams around, but they’re used to smashing bad ball clubs. Remember, the Longhorns were ranked in the Top 5 earlier this season, and even without Limas Sweed, they have the talent to put 50 on the Huskers’ terrible defense. Take Texas here.

Week 7 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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Even Steven – for my bottom 7 picks of the week, that’s not all that bad. Check out my Week 7 review, and see how a couple wins here and there got me to 3-3-1.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ New Orleans Saints: win
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Bookmaker)

I really think the Falcons would have won this game had Leftwich stuck in there. The Falcons covered easily and almost made the Saints look really bad in New Orleans. Atlanta lost, naturally, because that’s what atlanta does, but the game was close, just like Ole Lucky predicted, and I got my first win of Week 1.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: loss
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

Well I’m glad I didn’t bet the house on this game, as I took a loss in Buffalo. The Bills defense really impressed me on Sunday. The Ravens should have and could have run the ball a lot more, and probably pulled out of Buffalo with a victory, but the way it went, the books took home a lot of cash, and while just a little bit of it was mine, I still feel had.

New England Patriots (-16.5) @ Miami Dolphins: win
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

This game showed me what I already knew, the Patriots are the best team in football and the Dolphins are not. Also, the Patriots aren’t to be wagered against. Winner.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (+1.5): loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Bookmaker)

Matt Schaub got injured, the Texans bombed big time… And then they crawled back from the depths of hell to go up 1 with a minute left in the game. However, the Texans defense let Kerry Collins, of all people, lead the Titans into range for Rod Bironas’s 8th field goal of the day. He’s the new record holder, and I lose this bet by a half of a point. Naturally, I had already written off all hope, but was then pulled back in by the hair on my twelve o-clock shadow, only to fall down and out.

N.Y. Jets (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals: push
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: 5Dimes)

I can’t believe I got this push. Now, a lot of crap hit the fan, and that’s just what happens in Bengals and Jets games, but the Jets were looking good, and pretty much taking it too the Bengals before their defense blew it, and a cover seemed almost impossible after the Bengals returned an interception for a touchdown and went up 38-23 with 37 seconds to go. But silly me, I was safe after all. The Jets went and scored in 30 seconds, and went for two and got it. And look at that, I push a sure loss.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): loss
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker -4.5)

“I don’t like this game at all. If I didn’t take every game, I would leave this one alone. I want to take the Bears, because the Eagles have been, well, frankly crappy. I want to take the Eagles because the Bears have been brutal all season long, minus one half against the Packers. I advise you to sit this one out, but if you’re picking your weekly office pool, and need to lean one way or another, take the Eagles because of their defensive strength.” I can’t say I didn’t warn you. This game came right down to the wire, as the Eagles’ play calling was as bad as it’s ever been. It’s as if Andy Reid gets a plan in his head, and if doesn’t work, he just pounds it until it does. Brian Westbrook could have beaten the Bears by himself, but Andy didn’t let him. This game was too close, and the Eagles failed late.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Belmont)

“The Seahawks are the better team here. The Rams defense is brutal. Their offense is worse. They don’t have the bulk to out-muscle a relatively soft Hawks defensive front, and when Marc Bulger goes back to pass, his offensive line full of back-ups won’t give him nearly enough time to pick apart the Seahawks. I also don’t think the Hawks will struggle at home again after the Saints embarrassed them last week. This is usually where the Hawks step it up, and I think they’ll do just that this week at home.” Well, the Rams couldn’t take advantage of the Hawks weak run defense, they couldn’t slow a pass rush that sacked Marc Bulger to the point of tears, and the Ram offense looked good on 5 plays, the entire game. I was right about this one, and thus I pulled off an even record in Week 7. A couple close losses that could have gone either way made all the difference, but on a day like that, I’ll take .500.

Week 8 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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There we go! 4-1… It’s all coming back around. I had a big week, and I hope you did, too. This is how I took home four out of five.
Free Picks: Week 8

Oregon Ducks (-11) @ Washington Huskies: (winner)
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

“The Huskies are a great first half team, but the Ducks are a great every down team. The Dogs should be close at half time, but with a defense that breaks down the stretch, I expect a Ducks team that can put up points in a hurry, to win without much trouble. Dennis Dixon is magic.” What can I say? I called this game to a T. The dogs played well for just around 3 quarters, but their defense spent too much time on the field, and in the end, their offense couldn’t go blow for blow with Oregon. The Ducks won by 21.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers (-7): (winner)
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

“I like Purdue to be too offensive for the Hawkeyes. I know that’s what I expected last week when I had Purdue taking down Ohio State, but this week it will come true.” The Boilermakers scored a touchdown or more in every single quarter, and easily beat the Hawkeyes 31-6 – as their defense stepped up and allowed only two field-goals. And how about that offense? Just like I predicted, Purdue ran the Hawkeyes off the field. 315 yards passing for Curtis Painter, and three touchdowns to boot. Easy win for me.

Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini (+3): (loss)
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

This game was a bit of a joke. The game was tied at 17, and Michigan was driving, well, kind of. What actually happened was Michigan cashing in on personal fouls, late hits, and face mask penalties all the way down the field. But that still wasn’t enough, and they had to punt anyway. However, Illinois bailed the Wolverines out when they muffed a punt and soon after that the Wolverines scored an easy touchdown on a reverse pass.

Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5) @ Mississippi: (winner)
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: SBGGlobal)

“I know they’re favored on the road, which is rarely a good thing, but the Razorbacks have too much talent in their rushing attack for the boys from Mississippi to handle. McFadden is a beast, probably the scariest weapon in all of college football. I like his chances to fight back and have a big game after a sub-par performance last week.” McFadden and Jones rushed for 100+ yards each, and the Razorbacks didn’t allow a point until the 4th quarter. This game was too easy. The talent on Arkansas showed up when it was most important, converting on 66% of their 3rd downs, and reeling off big plays. Another easy win.

Kansas State Wildcats (+3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys: (winner)
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I was wrong about this game – but I still covered. I thouh K-State would run through the Cowboys and OK State would be lulling. Well, they pulled off 17 4th quarter points and ended up taking the crown by a deuce. It was one hell of a game, and like I said, the Cowboys played much better than I imagined. But hey, a cover’s a cover – and a win is a win is a win.

4-1… That’s been along time coming.

Free College Football Picks Week 8 – 2007

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Week 8 should prove to be much more profitable than my week 7 venture. With a couple easy games, I think 4-1 is all but guaranteed this week. Check out my free picks, and enjoy the writeups!

LUCKY LESTER’S NCAA Football Pick’em

Free Picks: Week 8

Oregon Ducks (-11) @ Washington Huskies:
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

The Huskies are a great first half team, but the Ducks are a great every down team. The Dogs should be close at half time, but with a defense that breaks down the stretch, I expect a Ducks team that can put up points in a hurry, to win without much trouble. Dennis Dixon is magic.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers (-7):
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I like Purdue to be too offensive for the Hawkeyes. I know that’s what I expected last week when I had Purdue taking down Ohio State, but this week it will come true. Now that the Boilermakers have that OSU game out of the way, all they can think about is now, and this is a must win for the Boilermakers. Iowa is a tough team, but in the end, I like the Boilermaker passing attack to win by a couple touchdowns.

Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini (+3):
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I don’t think much of the Wolverines, especially without Mike Hart (a very distinct possibility in this one) and I don’t know how the Wolverines are favored on the road against a very good Illini team. It’s all pretty confusing to me. Michigan has won 5 straight, but hasn’t looked amazing in many games this year. I like Illinois to expose the Wolverine’s defense and win out right in this one. I don’t know why one 6-10 loss to Iowa would drop the Illini so far after wins over Penn State and Wisconsin, so I’m taking them here.

Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5) @ Mississippi Rebels:
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: SBGGlobal)

Both teams are winless in conference, but I like the Razorbacks to get off the snide in this one. I know they’re favored on the road, which is rarely a good thing, but the Razorbacks have too much talent in their rushing attack for the boys from Mississippi to handle. McFadden is a beast, probably the scariest weapon in all of college football. I like his chances to fight back and have a big game after a sub-par performance last week.

Kansas State Wildcats (+3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys:
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

After basically crushing the Nebraska athletics program with a 45-14 road win last week in Lincoln, I might even have a lull this week. I can’t imagine how the Cowboys are going to react. Think about it. They just came off a game where the Cornhuskers reacted by firing their AD, questioning their coaching staff, looking for ways to rebuild, all the while preparing for next weeks game. And they were the cause of this. At home this week, they’ll play a much tougher foe in K-State, a team that has plenty of speed and know-how, and will strike quick if OK-State doesn’t have their A game. I can’t imagine they will, so I’m taking the Wildcats.

Week 6 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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Week 6 wasn’t too bad to me. I was 4-2-1 with my free picks, with a couple big wins, a couple close wins, and a push that happened because a kicker missed a chip shot. Overall, I’m happy with a week that could have been better or worse, I’ll take the 4-2-1 chip and be happy.

Minnesota Vikings (+6) @ Chicago Bears: (win)
(Line: Tuesday, 6:00pm EST: Bodog)

“I think the Vikings and Bears are right about equal. Before the season, I didn’t think the bears looked as good as they have been, and then injuries flooded that secondary. The Vikings are pretty healthy, and come in with a formidable rushing attack that will definitely put pressure on the bears’ defensive front. Adrian Peterson (the Vikings version, not the bears’) is an absolute beast. The Packers showed that the bears can be run on, and I think the Vikings will take note. With Chester Taylor working in tandem with Peterson, they’ll both stay fresh and pound this game to a close finish.” I can’t say that this game could have been picked any better. They were about equal, AP was a beast, Taylor did his thing, and the bears gave up close to a million yards on the ground. I win and I look smart, can’t do much better than that.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens: (loss)
(Line: Tuesday, 6:00pm EST: NewBodog)

“I think Gus Frerote can lead the Rams to enough scoring drives to put pressure on the Ravens. The Ram O-Line seems to be playing better together, and that is what this game will rely on. I like the Ravens to win this one, but giving Baltimore a 10 point hole to dig out of seems like a poor wager. The Ravens have been bad (at least) offensively, and touchdowns have been very hard to come by. 10 points, even the pathetic Rams can give than spread a test. I like them to make a play late to finish just within the spread, giving me a big underdog win.” Well, what can I say, you eat it when you’re wrong, and I was wrong here. The Ravens didn’t do much offensively, kick a bunch of field goals because even with 5 interceptions, they still can’t put up points on a team like the Rams. But Gus didn’t do much besides throw the ball to the Ravens. 5 interceptions? My good God. I lose this one because I put too much on Gus to do a decent job.

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): (win)
(Line: Thursday, 5:00pm EST: BetEd)

Well, Vince Young got a small taste of the Madden Curse, and the Bucs pulled out a late win by a field goal. I like -2.5 and am glad I jumped on this when I had the chance. I’m sure most of the books were on the side of the Titans, so you probably got just under 3 if you took this bet, too. A win is a win, by a half a point or by 10 points.

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (-3): (push)
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“This is a very tough game, one of those I wouldn’t pick if I didn’t pick every single game. I think the Packers and Redskins are basically the same team. They both have tough defenses and thus far have been pretty one-dimensional offensively. The Packers pass the ball successfully, while most of the Redskins’ yards come on the ground. Over the last 2 games, Campbell has cut down on mistakes, but the Packers might just force him into an interception or two. I think this game goes to the Packers at home, but it’s a tough one to call, one I’d stay away from.” Well, can I call ’em or can I call em? Talk about two even teams with the home team finishing with a field goal advantage. Honestly, this should have been a win. If Mason Crosby hits a short field goal (less than 38 yards) then the Packers win, and I cover. The way it is, it was just a big fat push in a tough game to call.

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-9.5): (win)
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“I just think LT has an LT day against the Raiders, and the Chargers win 28-14. That covers, not by a lot, but a cover is a cover. Phillip Rivers has looked decent enough lately to keep the Raiders’ honest, and Oakland’s defense hasn’t been as good this year as they were last time around. I know its hard to justify taking the Chargers after just one good game, but defensively they were so much better last week. Plus, I wasn’t one to buy the Chargers’ demise quite yet. A win here puts them back in first place in the AFC West.” I don’t know what to say besides the fact that I’m a genius. Haha. I’m pretty sure if you look back at this game, you’ll see that LT had an LT type day and the Chargers won 28-14, covering by just enough. That is exactly what I predicted. Yhatzee!

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): (loss)
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Well, the Saints played like the Saints of old in the first half, and Reggie Bush finally found out what it was like to hit a hole hard. He had 3 big runs to get the Saints going, and misplays, bad calls, interesting coaching decisions, and a plethora of other things (including Shaunna Alexander’s pathetic attempts to run the ball) had the Seahawks down and out to the Saints. I missed this one. That’s for sure.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5): (win)
(Line: Tuesday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“The Jaguars are the better team here. They make fewer mistakes, they run the ball better, and their defense is more of a force. I know Houston started out hot, and this game is usually close, but because of the way Houston has been playing, I don’t see the Jaguars looking past this game like they have in the past. David Garrard may not be flashy, but he wins football games.” The Jaguars won by even more than I thought, and that was mainly due to getting Maurice Jones-Drew the ball. That kid is magic.

Week 7 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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Week 7 proved to be another stinger, and nobody likes their arm feeling like it’s on fire after a hit to the neck. Stingers suck. Anyway, here’s how my terrible Week 7 panned out.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-18) @ San Jose State: loss
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

Colt Brennan looked confused at times, and his receivers dropped plenty of balls. The kids still tossed 5 touchdowns, but those 5 interceptions made this game closer than I needed it to be. The Warrior pulled it out in overtime, but I lost my spread easily. One game in, one loss.

Oregon State Beavers @ California Bears (-14): loss
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

“I know this is a conference game, and you’d think I would have learned my lesson betting against a big spread and the Stanford Cardinals last week, but that just isn’t’ the case.” As it turns out, if you’re ranked in the Top 5, and in the Pac 10 – you’re about to be upset. I guess I need to learn my lesson, but in this one, the injury to Nate Longshore didn’t help my cause all that much. I was killed by injured quarterbacks all week long, in both the NCAAs and the NFL.

Auburn Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-3): loss
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

Auburn pulled out this victory in one hell of an ugly contest. Arkansas pulled ahead with 2 and change to go, but Auburn kicked a game winning field goal for a 9-7 win. I just didn’t expect the Tigers to shut down McFadden and Jones the way that they did.

San Diego State Aztecs @ Utah Utes (-14): win
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

Thank God for the Utes!!! They dominated the Aztecs by just enough to make me a winner… in one game. Well, what can you do? Bet ’em big and go home with a loss. Believe you me, this has been a painful last couple weeks for Ole Lucky’s pocketbook.

Washington State Cougars (+19) @ Oregon Ducks: loss
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Bodog)

“Everything points to the Ducks in this game, except when you look at the small print.” And let me tell you this, sometimes the small print misguides you into believing that the past matters and the Cougars are actually decent enough to hang with Dennis Dixon and the Ducks… Well, forget the small print because it straight broke my balls in this one.

Luckily for me, I was once again a winner with my Elite picks – only 3-2, but I’ll take it…

Free College Football Picks Week 7 – 2007

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Week 6 was a tough go for Old Lucky Lester in the free picks section – and I wish I could have put up a mirror of my elite picks that were 4-1. This week I put about another hour into my Free Picks section, because I need to start winning these little buggers. Keep the buggering to yourselves, but check out my free picks this week, a couple big winners waiting in the weeds.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-18) @ San Jose State: (Friday Night Game)
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Bodog)

The San Jose State Spartans seem to give up a lot of points to decent offenses. They gave up 45 to Arizona State, 34 to Kansas State, and 37 to Stanford (just threw that last one in there, its not like the Cardinal have a solid offense). Anyway, Hawaii has one of the best offenses in the Nation, one of the best young quarterbacks, and a scheme that absolutely annihilates lesser college competition. The Spartans are the definition of lesser college competition. Even if Colt Brennan doesn’t play the whole game, I still like the Rainbows to win by at least 3 touchdowns in this one.

Oregon State Beavers @ California Bears (-14):
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I know this is a conference game, and you’d think I would have learned my lesson betting against a big spread and the Stanford Cardinals last week, but that just isn’t’ the case. I’m sticking to my guns here, as the Bears are just way too good for the Beavers. Oregon State hasn’t gotten over their loss of Matt Moore, and to be honest, they just aren’t nearly as good as I thought they were to start the season. Look for the Bears’ playmakers to turn this game upside down.

Auburn Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-3):
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

I just don’t see how Auburn is going to win this one. They are coming off of 3 straight wins, one of which was against Florida. Right now they must be thinking how good they are, not realizing their struggles to start the season. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the Razorbacks need wins and they need them now. After back to back losses to Alabama and Kentucky, Arkansas needs every win they can get to climb back toward the top of the SEC. They are at home, and they just need this game more. Auburn is more like the team that lose to Mississippi State then they are the team that beat Florida. Expect a down game from the Tigers in this one. They’ve really played decent football all season, but all the more reason to tumble in this one.

San Diego State Aztecs @ Utah Utes (-14):
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

San Diego state has been brutal this season, aside from one close game against the Colorado State Rams. Oh, and they took it to Portland State. Utah has a quality team, despite a 27-0 loss to UNLV a few weeks ago. Wins at Louisville (44-35) and at UCLA (44-6) both show how solid the Utes can be. I’d imagine this game isn’t even close, with the Utes coming out on top by 3 or 4 touchdowns. The styles of play just make for a dominant performance out of Utah.

Washington State Cougars (+19) @ Oregon Ducks:
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Bodog)

Everything points to the Ducks in this game, except when you look at the small print. This game is ALWAYS close. Only once in the last 7 years has this game been decided by more than 11 points, and that was a game at Oregon that Washington State dominated 55-16. I like Oregon to win this one, but Washington State has a couple good games in them. They fight until the end, and in this conference, I like those 18.5 points.

Let the free picks make you oodles of money!

Week 5 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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WOW! I had it bad on Sunday. Sure, I finished with a 4-3 record in my Free Picks – but oh how it could have been so much better. I know I lost the Lions/Skins game, but what can I say? I definitely warned you to stay away from that one. After that, the Ravens and Packers both absolutely screwed me by playing not-to-lose; also known as, screw the handicapper. All in all, after a couple bad-beats, I busted a 4-3 winner out, and I guess I’ll have to take it. This is how it went down.

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-16): win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Talk about heart-attack central. The Patriots didn’t care much about covering, and their pathetic excuse for a 3rd quarter showed it. However, with just seconds left in the game, up 10, the Patriots stripped Kellen Winslow and took the rock 20 yards to the house for a 17 point victory… I was jumping out of my seat – but wait, what’s this? I only switched the game to the Jets and Giants for a second, and now I’m back, and the Brownies have one more shot at the end zone? A pass to Kellen Winslow for a touchdown! My good God… Wait, ah, yes, his foot was on the line. Game over. I cover. Big spreads suck.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins: loss
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“Tough game to call, both the Redskins and Lions have played above what I expected this year. Detroit’s defense played better last week, but they were going up against a pathetic Bears offense, so I don’t know how much can be said about that.” That’s what I said, and I’m sticking to my good advice in this one. I’ll take the loss, but I have to stick by my warning label, I had no idea what to expect from either team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (-10) win
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“The way I see it, Indy has a tough time against lesser opponents, and the Bucs seem to be one of the better teams in the NFC this season. With that in mind, and the fact that John Gruden came into Tampa taking Tony Dungy’s job, you’d have to think that the Colts players try to come out and embarrass the Bucs organization. I’m not sure Tampa, as well as they’ve played this year, is ready for that.” Ah, they weren’t ready for that. The Colts came out and put up points at will against the Bucs, even without Joseph Addai. In fact, Kenton Keith could have been the star of the game, rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Anyway, Dungy looks like he didn’t get such a raw deal after all – where would you rather be coaching?

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos: win
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Nice. I can finally shave my neck beard. I promised myself, after the Chargers were embarrassed by the Patriots, that I would grow a neck beard like LT until he won. Little did I know that would take so damn long. Actually, I kind of came accustomed to my NB, and am sad to see it go. However, with the lovely lady promising she’d hold me to my promise or turn to celibacy, see you later neck beard, go LT and the big bad Chargers.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers: loss
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

I hate the Niners but not nearly as much as I hate those Ravens. Baltimore had all the opportunity in the world to put this game away, but they just can’t score. Offensively, I think they might be the worst team in football (maybe the Chiefs and Bills could argue that). I’m sick of them screwing me, and I don’t know which way to turnover. I hate when they beat me, but even more so when I lose betting on them. 9-7 was the score in this one. But really, the Ravens got a very friendly spot on their 3rd down plunge late in the 4th, or I’d probably be talking about how Matt Stover’s late field goal gave me the win here. Either way, I wish the Ravens just lost and at least made me happy on that front.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3): loss
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Honestly, the Packers should have been up about 24-0 at half time. But they only managed a 17-7, and I knew that would come back to bite them in the butt. 5 turnovers by the Packers, including a terrible interception by Favre, and the Packers lost in a tight one. It wasn’t the turnovers or the missed opportunities in the 1st half. Honestly, it was the “playing not to lose” play calling in the 3rd and early 4th quarters that did me, and the Packers, right in. Brett missed 1 pass in the first half (2 of his 3 incompletions were spiking the ball at the end of the half); but that didn’t seem to bother the Packers’ offensive coordinator. No, he wanted to run the ball. So much so that Brett only threw the ball 5 times from the start of the 3rd to midway through the 4th… Nice work. Prevent offense – gotta love that.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“Despite what I think about the Hawks, (they are very good), the fact is that they aren’t a very good road team, and seem to struggle against the AFC (like every NFC team). Also, this isn’t Trent Dilfer and the 49ers offense, this is the Steelers, a unit that is coming off a huge upset at the hands of their former coach. They are going to come out pissed and ready to go. Everything is working against the Hawks in this one, there’s no sense of urgency on their part, they’re away from Seattle, and that whole Super Bowl refereeing stick in the spokes is history. Look for Willie Parker to have a day.” Willie only had 102 yards, which isn’t bad against the Hawks defense, but everything else I said came true. Hawks didn’t do jack, didn’t seem to care, and the Steelers ran the show. 21-0 mad me look like a smart man, and gave me a much needed winning week after a couple tough beats throughout the day.

Week 4 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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It was my worst week of the young NFL season, and I feel a little like Donovan McNabb, Cadillac Williams, LaMont Jordan, and the entire Ravens team combined. Yeah, my knee hurts, my head feels like I was in 12 car accidents, my back needs a back-e-odomy, and I am greatly underacehiving. A bad week? Like I said, this was a terrible week. This is how it went haywire.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5): LOSS
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

“I’m afraid of this game, because I’m not sure the Raiders can stop Ronnie Brown, and I’m almost positive that the Dolphins can’t stop any rushing attack starring a guy under 40 years old with 5 lineman of college experience or better. However, Miami has more riding on this game, with Cam Cameron yet to pull a victory out of his new team. With him done playing games with Ronnie Brown, and Trent Green starting to figure out Marty Booker and Chris Chambers better, I just have a gut feeling that the Dolphins take this game by a touchdown. However, there’s the Daunte Culpepper factor for the raiders, which really makes me want to steer clear of this game. How bad does he want to beat the Dolphins? If I were a betting man, and I had to pick this game, I would wager with the home team – but as a former player, I know how much hatred can raise your game. My advice, steer clear from this one, but if you must, take the Fins.” This was my assessment of this game. I hope you listened to me and didn’t wager on this one. I didn’t listen to me, and like many times before, that was painful.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+3): WIN
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

“Believe it or not, I like the Lions in this one. I don’t know if they are the popular pick or what, but I don’t know why everyone thinks that Brian Griese is going to save the Bears.” What do you know, like I said, Brian saving the Bears wasn’t such a sure thing after all. Chicago needs to improve in a hurry if they want to get back to the playoffs, but I’m not sure the answer lies with Brian. The Lions win, and thank God, because little did I know, I needed a win something fierce.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons LOSS
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

Matt Schaub had a big game, but the Texans couldn’t put the ball in the end zone. The Falcons and Joey Harrington, of all people, had an overall solid game, and they beat the suddenly tumbling Houston Texans. Without their stars on offense, the Texans didn’t finish drives, and thus took a loss.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: LOSS
 (Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

The Arizona Cardinals out-powered the Steelers. I never thought I’d say that. Arizona put some things together, and despite Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart both getting significant action, the Cardinals pulled it off and stalled a late Steelers’ attempt to tie the game.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-11.5): LOSS
(Line: Tuesday, 1:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

In the words (or lack their of) of LT, “I’ve done said it all. I don’t have much else to say.” The Chargers were brutal in the second half. Phillip Rivers struggled mightily. LT was abandoned, getting only 6 carries with his team up by 10 at half time, and the Chargers were shut out and outscored 24-0 in the 2nd half. I guess I did have more to say.

Denver Broncos (+11) @ Indianapolis Colts: LOSS
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5-Dimes)

“I just don’t like the Colts to cover big spreads against run-heavy teams. Tennessee gave them trouble, because like usual, they don’t have the bulk to stop defense in short yardage instances. Travis Henry has beasted the Colts before, no doubt about that. Jay Cutler will be able to take advantage of the Colts deep, and Henry and that famous Denver offensive line will be able to keep the ball long enough to cover that 11 point spread. Plus, Denver’s secondary will force the Colts to run early and often, meaning there will be very few quick scores in this one. Long drives means a close game – so I’ll take the 11 points and Denver.” That was my analysis. Besides the 38-20 score at the end, I don’t know where I went wrong here. Henry had a huge game, the Broncos had 150+ yards on the ground, and the Colts didn’t score any deep touchdowns. The Colts are tough to figure out.

New England Patriots (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals: WIN
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Like I said, until the Patriots prove otherwise, in other words, prove that they aren’t the most dominant team we’ve seen in the last billion years, I’m taking them to cover. That means that even if they are giving 17 to Cleveland next week, I’m all over the Patriots. And, my advice would send you in the same direction. The Bengals have been solid all year long, but how bad did the Patriots make them look?