Monthly Archives: September 2007

Fantasy Football Tear Jerkers – Week 2

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Fantasy Football Know-It-All

This is Papa Weimer here, and I’ve got to be honest. I’m at my best criticizing a pissy job on Sundays. Yeah, these guys were highly touted by fantasy sports writers everywhere. These guys just didn’t get it done in Week 2, and what do you know, there’s still a Saint on the list. Hopefully you’re not stuck with these fantasy football blisters on your roster, or you are most likely 0-2, or at least 0 for Week 2.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: This group of clowns allowed the Browns to dominate them to the tune of 51 points. 51… Browns… Derek Anderson and company. Yikes. These guys got -6 points in my fantasy league, last I checked, that’s about as crappy as one defense could possible score. I don’t know what else to say about the Bengals, except, I hope they didn’t lose you your fantasy outing like they did mine. Rex Grossman on his worst day is the only guy I can think of that compares to Cinci this week.

Deuce McAllister: The only problem I have with putting Deuce here, is, he was actually productive in his limited touches against the Buccos. Deuce had 49 yards on 10 carries, and last time I checked, 4.9 yards per carry is a solid number to put next to your name. Well, Deuce fumbled, and he collected a fat 2 fantasy points, good for a 49th place tie for running backs on Sunday. Gross. The Saints need to start feeding McAllister the ball more, if they want to snap out of their 2 game skid, and get back to the kind of offense they were playing last season. Right now, the Saints are nobodies angels.

Alex Smith: For a guy who looked so good in the pre-season, Alex Smith has been brutal to start 2007. I still think Smith could figure it out if the 49ers give him more opportunities, but it looks like San Fran’s coaching staff could ride their running game until they get more confidence in Alex Smith’s ability to make the big throw. His 3 fantasy points in Week 2 were worse than any starting quarterback’s numbers in the entire NFL. Even Josh McCwoen and his 3 interceptions had a better fantasy day than Smith.

Tatum Bell: Bell had one of the worst days for any #1 running back in the league. Tatum carried 9 times for 14 yards, and grabbed 4 balls for 25 yards. Overall, he just couldn’t find room to run against Minnesota’s stellar defense. Bell has the speed and elusiveness to make good use of his touches, but Mike Martz likes to take what the defense gives him, and/or completely ignore the running game from week to week, so Bell might find himself on the tear jerker list every time his Lions play a solid rushing defense.

Maurice Jones Drew: My main man only had 4 fantasy points in Week 2, and still isn’t getting near enough touches on a team where he is definitely the best offensive option. I just flat out don’t get it. Drew only had 3 yards per carry in Week 2, but he needs to get 20 touches a week if the Jags want to stand a chance in their division. Right now, Jacksonville isn’t getting it done, and you should sit Drew until they figure it out, if you have a decent #3 option.

Lee Evans: For the second straight week, Lee collected a mere 2 catches. This time, he one upped himself, and also gathered a fantasy point. The Bills have a tough opening schedule, and it doesn’t get that much easier, but I’d bet it all on Evans doing better from here on out. The Bills haven’t been good at anything to start the season, and I have a feeling that might continue, but they’ll stop playing not to lose here in a week or so, because that’s just not working. When the Bills do realize that they need to take chances to win, Evans once again becomes one of the best receivers in Fantasy Football.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Tomlinson may just about lead my list of Tear Jerkers in fantasy points this week, but those owners who took the face of fantasy football in your drafts have surely felt the repercussions, especially in Week 2. His per carry stats make Reggie Bush look like a stud, and overall, his offense has been pathetic. I think this would be a great time to go out and plunder Tomlinson in fantasy leagues, as he’s done playing the Patriots and Bears for the season. This is still the best fantasy player in the game, maybe even the best player in the league, but he has owners crying in Week 2.

Mark Clayton: Mark has been injured, but playing, and while I feel bad for picking on a gimp, this guy, who I had high hopes for in 2007, had a catch for -1 yard. Dude, save yourself some bad publicity and take a seat on the bench. Not only has Clayton not delivered, but his offense in Baltimore looks like a pile of pooh. I still expect big things from the former Sooner, but right now, he’s a sure thing Tear Jerker.

Rex Gossman: Rex may have accumulated positive points, but he passes no beauty test, that’s for sure, because his game is ugly. This kid looks like he took the summer off from throwing a football, and came back with all his bad traits and none of the good ones. A few more starts like this, and Sexy Rexy is going to be watching Brian Griese from the sidelines.

Also considered; -the rookie WR threesome- Robert Meachem (0 life points), Ted Ginn Jr (0 offensive stats), Dwayne Jarrett (inactive), then Mushin Muhammad (7 yards), Devery Henderson (0 cathes), Donte Stallworth (1pt), Daniel Graham (0pts), Ronnie Brown (6pts), Deshaun Foster (4pts), DeAngelo Williams (3pts) — Well done fells, you couldn’t even do bad enough to win a Tear Jerker, you just get honorable mention for doing nothing worth while.

Free 2007 College Football Picks Week 3

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Week 3 is ready to roar, and if the first two weeks are any indication of my ’07 season, this week is going to be full of wins. These are my free picks for Week 3, and I have to be honest, I feel pretty good about this week’s college match-ups. The ACC will try to fight back, but only in some games will they succeed. Week 3 is always a dandy, as the truth that has been waiting in the distance starts to force its way to the front porch.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

West Virginia Mountaineers (-16.5) @ Maryland Terrapins:
9/13/07 7:45pm EST
West Virginia is a bad team to face as your first true test of the season. After playing two games against low level competition, the Terps are well rested, but they aren’t ready for a tandem like Pat White and Steve Slaton. I’m not sure if you can get ready for something like that, but Florida International and Villanova isn’t the way to do it. Look for the Mountaineers to get off to a solid start before busting down the flood gates in the 2nd half. The ACC has been getting killed against solid teams. I have a feeling that trend will continue here.

Cincinnati Bearcats (-9) @ Miami (Ohio): 9/15/07 12:00pm EST
I love the Big East, and the Bearcats are the reason why. They showed me something last week against a pretty good Oregon State team. The Bearcats make 4 very good teams in the Big East, with WVU, Rutgers, and Louisville, this conference is no longer one of the weaker groups in college football. In fact, I’d rank the Big East above the Big 10 and definitely the ACC. I might even go as far as the Big 12 if it weren’t for Oklahoma’s chances to win it all. Either way, the Bearcats are forcing themselves into the equation, so much so that I see another statement game out of Cinci.

UCLA Bruins (-13.5) @ Utah Utes: 9/15/07 5:00pm EST
UCLA hasn’t been as dominant as I’d like them to have been thus far, but they are winning football games by a solid margin. The people who know college football best think the Bruins should be rated about 10 spots higher than they are. Utah goes for their 3rd straight loss, after dropping back to back games against Oregon State and Air Force. Honestly, this game may come down to that half point, but I like my chances with an improved UCLA squad that seems to be playing with a little urgency. I don’t think we’ve seen the best from them, yet.

Boston College Eagles @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7):
9/15/07 8:00pm EST
The Eagles have put away their opponents rather easily on the scoreboard, but I’m not sure, after watching game film, that those games were as easy as they seemed. On the other hand, I know Georgia Tech has been a force in their two wins. It should be interesting, as neither team has had much competition thus far, but my money is on Georgia Tech. The Jackets have one of the best defenses in all of the land, and a stud back in Mr. Choice. He’ll have to run hard to get to the century mark against Boston College, a team that has outrushed their opponents by a total of 228 yards in the first two games, but I think he can do it. I also believe that Taylor Bennett will find open targets in a Yellow Jackets win. This will be the best game of his career thus far.

Florida State Seminoles (+6) @ Colorado Buffaloes:
9/15/07 10:00pm EST
I know the Seminoles have been a big disappointment over the last couple of years, and they struggled for a good portion of last weeks game against UAB, but look closer, and you’ll see a Seminole team that may have just figured it out last week. Nobody questions the athletic talent at FSU, so you have to think the confidence is coming. Well, the Seminoles went down 17-3, but instead of fading away, they busted tail back and finished the game on a 31-7 run to win easily. FSU just has to harness their defensive aggression, and they’ll win this one easily.

Week 1 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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Its review time. Its funny, just about half of the weeks, this is my favorite article to write, then comes the other half… Was Week 1 good or bad? That’s for you to discover in my Week 1 Review.

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-6): (WIN)

“I have to go with the Colts because history and early season dominance predicts a big win to start off the season. The Colts are 22-15-2 ATS in domes over the past 4 seasons. They also have a 33-7 record over that time span.” (Me) Well, color me right, its always good to start off with a bang. You can change those records to 23-15-2 and 34-7. The Colts always start off hot, and while I think they’ll struggle here and there, this Indy team has the right coaching and team leaders to make another push at the title.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: (LOSS)

This game was an Adrian Peterson run or two away from being impossible to watch. The Falcons couldn’t do dick, and the Vikings weren’t much better. Unfortunately for Joey Harrington, both his picks went for Viking touchdowns. I guess that was unfortunate for me as well. Oh well, this game was a tough one to pick.

Carolina Panthers (+1) @ St. Louis Rams: (WIN)

“The Rams should be improved this year, but the Panthers are better away from Carolina as they are at home. Over the last 4 seasons, they are 24-15-1 ATS on the road, and have 24 wins overall.” (Me) Some teams are home team heroes, and some teams play a little better on the road. The Panthers do their best work away from Carolina. Its always nice to go with the underdog on the road and come out with a W.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-3): (WIN)

“Vegas has to see what I see in Kansas City. Larry Johnson is back, which gives the Texans defense something to think about, but with all the quarterback turmoil, HBO specials, camp injuries, and overall age of this declining Chiefs team, I think the young and improved Texans will easily win their first game of the year.” Yes, I called this game to a T. The Texans are improved, Kubiak is a good coach, and they will surprise more than once this season. Another Sunday win… It’s good to be back!

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (-3): (TIE)

“Neither of these teams does much to excite me, except I really like Jason Campbell and the two headed running back monster in Washington (Yes I’m THE guy who still thinks Clinton Portis is a Top 5 talent). Campbell ran Al Saunders’ offense well in the last 3 games of the season, and I think he has just as much promise as any of the young quarterbacks in the league. He has the IT you need to win football games. I like Ronnie Brown, don’t like Trent Green and his 45 yard arm, and think the Dolphins front 7 is legit, but I’m not down with Cam Cameron’s games he’s playing in Miami already. Doesn’t he know that crap doesn’t go well with veteran clubs? So, with Washington at home, and Campbell making the plays the Redskins need to win, I think they just sneak by Miami’s front 7 on way to an opening day victory.” (Me) This was a tie, but can I call it much better than this? Campbell wasn’t great, but he did what he needed to do to win, and Portis took 17 carries for just under 100 yards. He’s good.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+7): (LOSS)

“Thus, I’ll go against the ATS dominators. I don’t think the Jets are the better team here, and the Pats will probably sneak out a 3 point win with a late field goal or something.” This Patriot team is scary. When Seymour and Rodney Harrison come back, hell right now for that matter, these guys are legit. I don’t plan on going against the Patriots much this season. Learning lessons, guys, that’s what I need to do.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5): (LOSS)

“Its hard to bet against Vince Young, I mean the kid has gone 9-2-2 ATS in his only 11 games in the NFL, as he led his team of youthful Titans to the best ATS 13 game stretch of the season. But, gone is Travis Henry and suspended is Pacman Jones, and both had just as much, if not more to do with keeping the Titans in football games last season.” (Me) Yeah, like I said, its tough to bet against Vince. I realize that Henry and Pacman are out, but more importantly, apparently, is the fact that Vince still runs the show in Tennessee. His numbers weren’t good, but he wins. In turn, I lost. But this is where the losses stopped.

Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (-6): (WIN)

The Bears just couldn’t score against the extrememly talented defensive group in San Diego. And while Chicago held LT in check for most of the game, the Truth came out and did his thing to pull away from the visiting Bears. LT threw and ran for a touchdown, meaning he was responsible for all the points for his Chargers. Even on a tough day, this guy is lightning in a uniform.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6): (WIN)

“Everyone is giving up on the Hawks. I watched a recent show that claimed, at best, the Hawks finish with 9 wins. Give me a break. I also heard that the Hawks lost too much from last year’s team. Did those guys see the Hawks off-season moves? Three safeties are new to this squad that are a better fit in Seattle’s D than anyone of the guys they had last season. Patrick Kerney is the pass rusher they always wanted Grant Wistrom to be, and Marcus Trufant is back. Also, Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, and its not like Jackson’s loss kills Seattle, they’ve been playing without him for half of the last 2 seasons. The Bucs are the Bucs, and lately, that’s not a good thing to be. They are desperate to get younger at defense, but Gaines Adams isn’t even a starter yet, and Simeon Rice was let go. It’ll be interesting to see if Cadillac Williams comes back to have a solid season in his 3rd try, but I don’t see much in terms of competition between these two clubs. Take the Hawks at home, they always win in Seattle. ” (Me) Yep. The Hawks defense looked really good, and while this was Tampa, I have a feeling Seattle’s D unit will do work all season long. They need to smash the run, but they have enough play makers to cause turnovers and win football games.

5-3-1 in Week 1. Not a bad way to start the season. A win is a win is a win. Ain’t that the truth?

Week 2 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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Well, I didn’t follow up my Week 1 with a great Week 2, but ups and downs happen in this game. Here’s how I finished 2-3 in Week 2 of the NCAAs. On the bright side, I dominated my Elite Picks in Week 2, finishing 4-1. They aren’t free, but check them out at Who2BetOn.com.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Oregon State Beavers (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bearcats: (LOSS)
“I know the Cincinnati Bearcats have been on a tear lately, with 4 straight wins going back to last season, including 30-11 win against Rutgers – but are they that good?” I answered, “No.” I was apparently wrong. I need to stop finding reasons to bet with teams and completely ignore them to the point of painful losses like this one. Hopefully you guys all got to my site after the Thursday game had already started… After going 4-1 in Week 1, the best I could do was match after Thursday of Week 2.

Akron @ Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5): (LOSS)
Ohio State played poorly, making me think UW might just end up to be a struggle for the Buckeyes next week in Seattle. Still, the beat Akron 20-2, but that wasn’t enough for me.

North Carolina State @ Boston College Eagles (-13): (WIN)
“Matt Ryan looks like a professional grade quarterback, and I don’t think the Wolfpack defense has a chance in slowing him down. This game being at Boston College pushes me over to the side of the Eagles” (Me) Matt Ryan was slowed down, but NC State spend too much time looking at Matt, and so the Eagles did the smart things and handed the ball off to his running backs. Andre Callender had 158 rushing yards, and L.V. Whitworth went for 59. And BC won 37-17, and it wasn’t that close.

Troy @ Florida Gators (-26.5): (WIN)
A sloppy second half made this game close, but the Gators ended up winning 59-31, covering by a few points. The Gators are dirty. I wouldn’t be stunned if they repeated this season.

Hawaii Rainbows (-28) @ Louisiana Tech: (LOSS)
The Rainbows just barely kept their undefeated hopes alive by slipping past LouTech late. Needless to say, I didn’t cover.

THROUGH 10 Rounds; Team Breakdowns

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Well, most of the big-named players had been chosen by the end of Round 10, so here’s a breakdown of each team’s roster for easier viewing. Remember, this is before the last 8 rounds, and a 3 round rookie draft. But most starting lineups will deal with these 10 players on each team. Check it out. I hope you enjoyed a look into a real fantasy draft done by myself and a group of my closest friends. LL
Team 1: Steven Jackson, Roy Williams, Carson Palmer, LenDale White, Braylon Edwards, Chris Cooley, Dominic Rhodes, Daniel Graham, Jeff Garcia, Michael Clayton

Team 2: LaDainian Tomlinson, Kevin Jones, Drew Brees, Deion Branch, Jerious Norwood, Terry Glenn, Kellen Winslow, Broncos Defense, Maurice Stovall, Troy Williamson

Team 3: Larry Johnson, Chester Taylor, Ladell Betts, Jay Cutler, Chris Chambers, DJ Hackett, Mike Furrey, LJ Smith, Steve McNair, Seahawks Defense

Team 4: Frank Gore, Javon Walker, Marvin Harrison, Mike Vick, Fred Taylor, Brandon Marshall, Todd Heap, Brett Favre, Cowboys Defense, Warrick Dunn

Team 5: Reggie Bush, Marion Barber, Anquan Boldin, Vince Young, LaMont Jordan, Kevin Curtis, Bernard Berrian, Randy McMichael, Trent Green, Packers Defense

Team 6: Willie Parker, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Tatum Bell, Phillip Rivers, Algae Crumpler, Jake Delhomme, Joey Galloway, Jaguars Defense, Sammy Morris

Team 7: Laurence Maroney, Cadillac Williams, Marques Colston, Mark Clayton, Eli Manning, Bears Defense, Tony Romo, Corey Dillon, Drew Bennett, Chris Henry

Team 8: Jospeh Addai, Tory Holt, Brandon Jacobs, Reggie Brown, Donte Stallworth, Hines Ward, JP Losman, Chris Brown, Daunte Culpepper, Damon Huard

Team 9: Cliton Portis, DeAngelo Williams, Deuce McAllister, Donovan McNabb, Jericho Cotchery, Ronald Curry, Alex Smith, Patriots Defense, Reggie Williams, Mushin Muhammad

Team 10: Brian Westbrook, Larry Fitzgerald, Marc Bulger, Jeremy Shockey, Laveranues Coles, Matt Jones, Leon Washington, Rex Grossman, Chris Perry, Steelers Defense, Michael Jenkins

Team 11: Cedric Benson, Steve Smith, Lee Evans, Antonio Gates, Matt Leinart, Reuben Droughns, Mike Bell, Arnaz Battle, Panthers Defense, Joe Horn

Team 12: Shaun Alexander, Marion Barber, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Vincent Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, Devery Henderson, Ben Watson, Matt Schaub, Vikings Defense

Lucky Llamas (Team 13): Ronnie Brown, Maurice Jones Drew, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Tom Brady, Deshaun Foster, Santana Moss, Greg Jennings, Vernand Morency, Byron Leftwich, Dallas Clark

Team 14: Peyton Manning, Thomas Jones, Michael Turner, Jamal Lewis, Santonio Holmes, Darrell Jackson, Jason Witten, Chargers Defense, Earnest Wilford, Brodie Croyle

Team 15: Willis McGahee, Travis Henry, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna, Wes Welker, Eagles Defense, Demetrius Williams

Team 16: Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Julius Jones, Vernon Davis, Matt Hasselbeck, Ravens Defense, Chad Pennington, Isaac Bruce, Brandon Jones

Fantasy Football Tear Jerkers – Week 1

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Fantasy Football Know-It-All
This is Papa Weimer here, and I’ve got to be honest. I’m at my best criticizing a pissy job on Sundays. Yeah, these guys were highly touted by fantasy sports writers everywhere. From ESPN to your buddy who likes to claim fantasy royalty, this list of disappointments hit the road stumbling in Week 1, and as if the stumble itself wasn’t bad enough, an impenetrable brick wall was smack dab in their way. It started early, as last year’s fantasy happy thought was down in the dumps in Indy… You want the All Bad team? Read on, good sir! 9 elite guys: 14 points. If you drafted these guys in your league, you had one hell of a good draft. But, on the flip side, you had one crappy week 1.

Drew Brees: 1 fantasy point, 2 fantasy points, whatever your league gives this guy, he didn’t meet expectations. 28-41 for 191 yards? What the hell was he doing? Completing passes to stationary dummies 5 yards downfield? The All-World Saints’ offense didn’t score a single touchdown in Indy on Thursday. The same Colt team that lost 5 starters from a defense that wasn’t very good last season. Brees’ 2 interceptions and 1 fumble didn’t help the cause either. This guy has been picked 2nd in more than half the leagues I’ve drafted. I have him in 1 league, and I’m not real happy about his output in Week 1. No TDs, under 200 yards, and 3 turnovers. Drew Brees looked like Ryan Leaf in Week 1.

Deuce McAllister: The Deuce was not loose on Thursday Night. All in all, the Saints offense that was supposed to produce like the Colts Big 4 produced more like the Temple Owls Big 4, and thus disappointed fantasy owners all over the US, and in Canada too (I know a couple, believe me). McAllister was supposed to run all over the Colts poor rush defense, but that just wasn’t the case. He had 3.8 yards per carry, which was better than his more publicized backfield mate, but 3 fantasy points isn’t something to get excited about from your starting running back. He did have 2 grabs, but like Reggie, he totaled only 7 receiving yards. Needless to say, the Saints lost to the Colts on Thursday Night.

Reggie Bush: I must admit, I don’t have Reggie Bush in one single league. I have a lot of teams in a lot of different formats, and I’m sure not having Reggie Bush will make me angry as soon as Week 2, but right now, I feel like a genius. I stayed away from the USC godsend, and I was rewarded in Week 1. His 12 carries for 38 yards started him off with an unprofitable 3.1 yards per carry. But what about his receiving? Sure, in a PPR league, Bush’s hands got owners another 4 points, but his 7 total receiving yards got you jack in normal leagues. Reggie’s 3 fantasy points were hardly worth the 1st Round pick most owners spent on him. Reggie, like some of your Saint teammates, you fit the Tear Jerking bill in Week 1.

Marques Colston: I’ve heard more than a couple owners tell me that Marques Colston was the 2nd best receiver in Fantasy Football. Now, these owners selected Colston as their 2nd receiver, and of course, the best receiver in the league is the 1st guy they picked. So, in their minds, they have the Top 2 receivers in the league. Not so quick buddy. Colston didn’t do much with his 6 catches against the Colts. 47 yards on 6 grabs gave Marques a whopping 7.8 yards per catch. He didn’t score, either. All in all, I can’t say Colston had a terrible day. 10 points in a PPR and 4 points in a regular format, sometimes even the best receivers have down days. But can these same owners continue to throw Colston 2nd best receiver Cool-Aid at me? I hope not, because it tastes like horse poop, I could even say Colt poop.

Steven Jackson: Everyone’s #2 pick in fantasy drafts everywhere slammed into the Carolina wall on Sunday. Not only did he go next to nowhere with his 18 rushes (58 yards) but Sir Steven fumbled twice, causing major damage to his fantasy owners chances in Week 1. He did have 1 catch for 3 yards… If that rubs any burning acid in your already deep wound. Chalk another player up for the 1 point category. I bet that made owners happy in league’s everywhere.

Lee Evans: It really stuns me that Evans had 2 catches for 5 yards and the Bills still had a chance, (were winning until last 2 seconds) to win this football game. Lee has to do more for his Bills to win. He’s one of the elite players in this league. He did have to go heads up against Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, two guys who will shut down lots of receivers this year, but to be as talented as Lee is and get shut out. I’m not liking it. Bills, take note, give this guy a couple shots.

Deion Branch: 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 points – Sounds like a good reason to trade Darrell Jackson away. Sure, D-Jack may have dropped a TD pass against Arizona, but he also made one hell of a catch to keep the game going for his Niners. What did Branch do? He had a few nice blocks. How many points did you get for those in your fantasy league?

Larry Fitzgerald: Larry Fitz went up against the defensive juggernaut that is San Francisco and took home 2 fantasy points. Matt Leinart didn’t look to his Super Star receiver all that often, ignoring the fact that he got by defensive backs on at least two pass plays. 3 catches for 20 yards isn’t what most expected from this 2nd or 3rd round pick. But sometimes you get tricked. This was one of those times.

Steve McNair: Steve was bad. Not only did McNair get hurt, but he was just brutal prior to his injury. 203 yards passing, 3 fumbles and 1 interception. Lets do that math for those who can’t figure out how McNair finished with a fat 0. 200 yards (8pts) 3 fumbles (-6pts) and one interception (-2pts). Yes, 8-8, in any equation, is 0. This guy has something close to 733 turnovers in his last 2 games. And I thought he could have a decent day in Cincinnati.

Also considered: Cedric Benson (3pts), Mark Clayton (0pts), Braylon Edwards (2pts), Vincent Jackson (2pts), Reggie Brown (1pt), Fred Taylor (1pt), Jamal Lewis (2pts), Maurice Jones Drew (3pts), Vernon Davis (0pts), Daunte Stallworth (1pt) – Nice work guys, two claps for you, too. VD- you get a click-clack.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 1

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My rundown is back and better than ever. As readers have realized, my fantasy knowledge is tip top, and I’m here to help you sort out the champs from the chumps – this is my weekly start’em and sit’em section. For all your fantasy questions, feel free to Ask Papa Weimer @ papaweimer@hotmail.com.As for questions directed at me, good Ol’ Lucky Lester, throw your questions to lester@luckylester.com. Let the Fantasy Football season begin the point tallies – and feel free to knock me on my picks! But do it prior to the games, I’m not all that interested in your perfect hindsight.

This Week’s Top Team: The best of Week 1.

QB: Drew Brees vs. Colts: Peyton’s team might get the win, but I have a feeling Drew Brees will throw for more yards in this one. Brees has been a sniper in pre-season action, and he should only be stronger in his 2nd season back from surgery. Look for Brees to launch early and often, and dump for big yards to his check-down options.

RB: Frank Gore vs. Cardinals: I think the Cardinals defense is underrated, but Frank Gore is going to attack the Cardinals from start to finish. Gore has his fumbling problems at the goal line out of the way, and he’s primed for a huge season if he can stay healthy. He’s going to be healthy for Week 1, so I’d say he’s a safe bet in Monday Night’s showdown with the Cardinals.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Chicago: Yeah, I have to go with LT in week 1, even with Chicago’s vaunted defense ready to attempt a shutdown on the league’s most dynamic offensive player. LT will get every important carry for the Chargers, and I expect them to beat the Bears this weekend. Phillip Rivers will keep the Bears honest, but LT will continue his touchdown hold on the NFL with a couple this weekend.

WR: Steve Smith vs. St. Louis: I like Steve Smith any day of the week, but especially in a game that should have plenty of scoring. Not only will it be high scoring, but he Panthers could be down late, and that’s a Steve Smith recipe for fantasy numbers.

WR: Chad Johnson vs. Ravens: Look at the stats, Chad Johnson beats up on the Ravens. Its probably because the Ravens are too stubborn to roll all coverages at Chad like every other defense. Well, I like Chad’s new found attitude this year, and I imagine he’ll start hot right out of the gates.

TE: Todd Heap vs. Bengals: Cincinnati doesn’t have much of a defense, and Todd Heap is the main man in Steve McNair’s checks. I expect Todd to be 7-11 on Sunday.

K: Jeff Wilkins vs. Carolina: I think Carolina’s defense is good enough to slow the Rams offense enough to make Jeff Wilkins attempt at least 3 field goals. Jeff will hit those field goals and tack on some extra points. He’s as solid an option as you get in Week 1.

D: Steelers vs. Browns: The Browns just don’t have an offensive game. I know their offensive line is stacked, but without a game breaker running the ball, or a quarterback that strikes fear into their defense, Pittsburgh will be all over that line of scrimmage. Sacks and turnovers be ware, Mike Tomlin will have his guys ready in Week 1.

LUCKY’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Ben Roethlisberger: You could tell from the get go that Ben Roethlisberger was a competitor – because even when there was no business for him starting and winning football games as a rookie, that’s just what he did. Last season had to kill the big guy, as his play was sub par. He’ll be back this season, starting in Cleveland.

Jason Campbell: Campbell won’t get many starts in Fantasy leagues early on, but I’d be happy starting the young Washington Quarterback. He’s a threat to run, and strong enough to score on the goal line. He’ll find some deep balls to Santana Moss, the Dolphins’ secondary just isn’t that good.

Julius Jones: Jones won’t get too many starting nods in Week 1, and that’s understandable, why would you put a guy in who’s sharing carries as your starter if you don’t have to? Well, I see about 100 yards and a score out of Jones. That’s worth a start for more than a few teams out there.

Ahman Green: I’ve said for years that Ahman Green would be perfect in Denver’s system. Well, he didn’t get the chance in Denver, but Kubiak runs that system for Green’s new team, the Houston Texans. Houston’s O-Line run blocks just swell, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Green goes over 100 yards in his first action since exiting Green Bay.

Santonio Holmes: Hines Ward often has a solid day against Cleveland, maybe he just feels faster than someone wearing orange. Either way, he’ll share his secret with Holmes, and the young speedster will get deep 2 or 3 times against the Browns secondary. 6 catches for just under 100 yards and a score; that’s my prediction.

Ronald Curry: This guy is the #1 option in Lane Kiffin’s new offense in Oakland. I expect the Raiders to be down too much to run the ball all game using LaMont Jordan, and Curry isn’t a big enough commodity to get double coverage over any of the other Raider receivers, but he’ll get the most balls from Josh McCowen or Daunte Culpepper, whomever starts in Oakland. Both have a cannon, and Curry, who caught 33 balls over the last 4 games, will be a beneficiary of better quarterbacking and a new-school offense in Oakland – especially against the Lions’ secondary.

Daniel Graham: Buffalo is bruised and battered on defense. No, they’re healthy, that’s not what I meant, I just meant they’re bad. Graham could catch 60-70 balls in Denver this year – he’s a legit breakout candidate for TEs. I expect big things from him, especially against Buffalo’s defense.

Falcons DST: I’m all but certain that the Falcons are sitting on the waiver wire in your league right now, waiting to be picked up by you. Well, I know the Vikings have a solid rushing attack, but until they prove to be a bigger threat throwing the ball, defenses like the Falcons will put 8 and 9 in the box. No kind of freak offensive lineman can make holes with that facing them. Atlanta is fast enough to cause Tarvaris Jackson some problems when he does pass. The Falcons could be a big point getter in Week 1.

LUCKY’S Week 1 Randy Moss’s

(This section may need a new name if Randy starts to prove himself in New England, but I didn’t think it fair to get Randy’s name off this list just because he got traded, he needs to step up first)

Mike Vick: His passing just won’t get it done this year. He’s got sore legs, and his teammates in San Quentin just aren’t as good as the Falcons he had last year. Err… What an idiot. Dog fighting – talk about pissing it all away.

Trent Green: I just think Green is brutal. I seriously can throw farther than him, (If someone reading this can prove that Green can throw farther than 60 yards – send me an email and I’ll stop claiming this) and his offense isn’t that good. He’s old with a bad offensive line, and his best receiver is overrated. Even Washington’s terrible defense will make his efforts look lackluster.

Cedric Benson: Hey Ced, your teammates don’t like you, but Thomas Jones was sent out of town because you get paid like a damn basketball player – guess what you win? A chance to rush against the Chargers! Yeah! Good luck buddy, and hopefully you’ve made buddy-buddy with your O-Line, because if you haven’t, I’m sure Merriman will get a clean look at you in the first couple series’ if not all game long.

Warrick Dunn: Without Vick, I don’t think Dunn will be that sneaky of a runner like he used to be. Plus, WD20 is getting older, and his backup is the kid with all the upside in the world. I don’t see Dunn being startable this season, mainly because he won’t get enough touches, he’s wearing down, and he’s never been a touchdown threat. Against a defense that dominates against the run, Week 1 should be tough for the Falcons’ #1 runner.

Calvin Johnson: I’m sure the kid will get his during the season, but I don’t think Week 1 is that time. The Raiders have a very talented secondary especially with their fast and athletic corners. CJ will get a tough test as the #3 guy in Week 1, I don’t see him getting starter numbers. Maybe 45 yards on 3 catches.

Laveranues Coles: I like Coles a lot, but he doesn’t shine against the Patriots. New England isn’t afraid to take away a team’s top targets, and in the passing game, Coles is definitely that guy for the Jets. Like I said, I’m sure Coles will have a solid season, I just don’t think the Patriots will let him start in Week 1.

2007 NFL Fantasy Draft Round 10

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Round 10
33. Brandon Jones
34. Demetrius Williams
35. Brodie Croyle
36. Dallas Clark
37. Vikings Defense
38. Joe Horn
39. Michael Jenkins
40. Mushin Muhammad
41. Damon Huard
42. Chris Henry
43. Sammy Morris
44. Packers Defense
45. Warrick Dunn
46. Seahawks Defense
47. Troy Williamson
48. Michael Clayton

Brandon Jones could, and probably will be the #1 in Tennessee. That makes him an absolutely great pick. Will Vince learn how to utilize his arm this season? If so, Jones is a steal here.

Demetrius Williams looks like he’s going to be a great pro. He might be a #3 again this season, but don’t expect that to last. Next year he starts, guaranteed.

Brodie Croyle apparently has the best shot at a starting gig in Kansas City now that Trent Green is out of the picture. I don’t see it. Huard will start, I’m sure. However, this draft was prior to the Green trade.

I love to get Dallas Clark where I did. If anyone out there took the playoffs into account, he was a super star. He had the most catches on the Colt roster, and had more yards than either of the star receivers. He was hurt last season, so he’s slipping in drafts everywhere. Be the guy who waits and waits to pick a TE, and still gets a stud in Dallas Clark.

The Vikings defense was one of the best units in football last year. But, they lost their coordinator (a brilliant defensive mind) to Pittsburgh, so will they be the same? They have enough talent, but their offense could shoot them in the foot one too many times.

Joe Horn will likely be the Falcons #1 this coming season… What doesn that mean? He’s equal to somewhere around a slot receiver for your average team. Because Vick is such a good passer, that’s why.

In Atlanta Micheal Jenkins is probably the best receiving option this side of Algae Crumpler. Horn is getting the pub, but Jenkins is younger, faster, and bigger. Mike Vick doesn’t do well with small targets.

Mushin Muhammad has lost a step, and he wasn’t ever really fast. He’ll always be a touchdown threat, as I think he could get as many as 8 this season. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if this was the last season he was much of a fantasy threat at all. Like Moulds a couple years back.

Like I said, I like Huard to start, and at this point in their careers, he’s better than Trent Green. If Dwayne Bowe can become an instant threat, ala Anquan Boldin a couple seasons’ back, Huard will be a solid #2.

Chris Henry was an interesting pick, but I figure well worth the chance. At this point, most teams are taking #4 WR’s anyway, so why not sit a guy with all that talent on your bench. Sure he’s a nut case, but if he gets his screws bolted, he’s a double digit TD guy.

Sammy Morris is the back-up in New England. And while I think Laurence Mo is one of the brightest young runners in the game – if he goes down, and many think he’s injury prone, Morris could see the bulk of carries. That makes him worth something. But I think people are forgetting about Warrick Dunn.

The Packers are very underrated. They were between 5-8 in almost every defensive format last season, plus they’re younger, and didn’t lose much on that side of the ball. They’ll be good again this season.

Finally, someone took Warrick. He’s old, and Jerious Norwood has loads of talent, but Warrick is still the starter, and in Round 10, that’s a great deal – regardless of age.

The Hawks defense has too many great players to play as bad as they did last season. This year should be different, as Peterson, Tatupu, and Leroy Hill make one of the best linebacking corps in the league. Look for them to take the next step this season.

Troy Williamson got his eyes fixed, and if that helps him catch, getting a Top 10 draft pick talent in Round 10 is a great deal. If he continues to suck, this was a waste of a pick. He sure is fast, though. I wish 40 times got you fantasy points.

To finish up the 10th round, Michael Clayton was chosen. It just goes to show you how fast the NFL can turn you upside down. A couple years back, Clayton was one of the premier young receiving talents in the game, now he’s a reach in the 10th round.

Round 10’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Warrick Dunn 157th
Worst Value – Michael Clayton 160th
Most Upside – Brodie Croyle 147th
Best Player – Warrick Dunn 157th
Most Likely to Bust – Joe Horn 150th
Sleeper – Demetrius Williams 146th

2007 NFL Fantasy Draft Round 9

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Round 9
17. Jeff Garcia
18. Broncos Defense
19. Steve McNair
20. Cowboys Defense
21. Trent Green
22. Jaguars Defense
23. Drew Bennett
24. Daunte Culpepper
25. Reggie Williams
26. Chris Perry
27. Panthers Defense
28. Matt Schaub
29. Byron Leftwich
30. Earnest Wilford
31. Eagles Defense
32. Isaac Bruce

Jeff Garcia could have a solid year in Tampa Bay. He also could have a bad year, and lost the starting gig to Chris Simms, but I wouldn’t bet on that. Regardless of what people think, Gruden isn’t Andy Reid, and the Bucs aren’t the Eagles. I would expect a very mediocre year for Garcia at best, but still much better than Tampa’s QBing last season.

The Broncos defense will be set with one of, if not the best secondary in the game. Now, if their linebacking corps and lineman can stop the run and cause pressure – they’re nice.

Steve McNair is as old as dirt, and he just can’t move like he used to. He’s never been a gun-slinger. I don’t know what people expect from him next year, but no way does he get 20+ touchdowns. As a stop gap at back-up, he’s still too old for a keeper format.

The Cowboys defense should be legit under Wade Phillips and company. IN fact, if the Cowgirls can somehow stop a pass or two, they’ll be a Top 5 unit. If Roy Williams continues to cover people, they’ll get beat deep often.

Trent Green will bomb out in Miami, Cleo Lemon will eventually start for the Dolphins, and hopefully, just hoping here, Daunte Culpepper catches on somewhere else and plays healthy for the first time in a couple years. I think Daunte would still be the best option in Miami.

The Jaguars have a very good defense. They don’t do anything spectacular, but limit point totals, and make plays. They rarely allow a 100 yard rusher, but special teams and scoring TD’s aren’t their strong suit, so as a Fantasy D, they’re just a little above average.

Drew Bennett is big, fast, and white. He has good hands, and should have a better season in ’07 than he did in ’06. He’s the big receiver the Rams never had, and should get a few red-zone tosses, but I don’t think he’ll be worth starting this season, unless he gets the #2 spot from Ike Bruce – don’t see it happening.

Daunte, Daunte, Daunte… Where has thou gone? Confused I am, for you are nowhere to be found… I hope that Pep catches on somewhere an throws 38 touchdowns, or at least gets healthy. This cat used to have so much promise – he’s worth a shot at the bottom half of drafts.

Reggie Williams will have his best season as a pro in 2007. The new Jaguar offense looks more passing friendly, and will allow Lefty and his big receivers to make plays downfield, where they thrive. Reggie isn’t a short rout, small space guy. I like this pick.

Chris Perry is the reason trainers have jobs. This cat is injured more than Ken Griffery Jr. If Perry can ever stay healthy, he might be worth this pick. But it looks like the Bengals are fixing to lose hope.

I think the Panthers have the makings of a Top 5 defense. Hell, I think, if they put it together, they could very well find themselves in the super bowl. Lets see what they do with what they got, but I think this is a good pick.

I really wanted Schaub to fall to me, because I’ve always liked him. I liked him prior to the Schaub press push, prior to the ESPN the Mag shoots, and prior to everyone else questioning if he was or wasn’t the best QB in Hotlanta. But I didn’t get him, yet I still think he’ll make some things happen in Houston.

So, I lose Matt, but am thankful to snag Lord Byron. It looks to me like he’s ready for a solid season in Jacksonville. His receivers are maturing, the offense suits him better, and he’s in the last year of his contract. I’ve always dug Byron’s style – now here’s to his health… Cheers!

Earnest Wilford catches touchdown passes, but I have a feeling he’ll never match his totals from two years ago. Reggie Williams is starting to get more looks, and Matt Jones is improving as we speak. Plus, Dennis Northcut is scheduled to be the small, quick threat on short passes. Wilford could be left out to dry.

The Eagles Defense really improved during the off season. There are linebacking options galore, and with Javon Kearse back, and ¾ of the Eagle secondary, I expect big things from Philly this season.

Good ol’ Ike Bruce. Isaac actually looked pretty good in the latter half of 2006. While I think taking him is a risk in a dynasty format; surely he has the numbers to be worth a spot. Longterm is not his strong-suit, but he could be a nice option this season. He’s always been good, I can’t argue with that.

Round 9’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Byron Leftwich 141st
Worst Value – Chris Perry 138th
Most Upside – Matt Schaub 140th
Best Player – Cowboys Defense 132nd
Most Likely to Bust – Trent Green 133rd
Sleeper – Reggie Williams 137th

2007 NFL Fantasy Draft Round 8

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Round 8
1. Chad Pennington
2. Wes Welker
3. Chargers Defense
4. Vernand Morency
5. Ben Watson
6. Arnaz Battle
7. Rex Grossman
8. Patriots Defense
9. Chris Brown
10. Corey Dillon
11. Joey Galloway
12. Randy McMichael
13. Brett Favre
14. LJ Smith
15. Maurice Stovall
16. Daniel Graham

Chad Pennington will never have elite fantasy numbers, but as a 2nd string guy, he’s not too shabby. And remember, he’s pretty young – and has a couple decent seasons under his belt. Still, there’s better options out there.

Wes Welker is obviously loved by the Patriots coaching staff, but will that translate into fantasy stats? With Stallworth, Moss, Watson, Maroney, and more – I don’t think so, not worth an 8th round pick.

The Chargers Defense has the most upside of the Top 3 defenses taken, but with a new coaching staff in place, will they be as good this season? They might be too risky to take high, but you’ve got to love their young nucleus of talent.

I didn’t need a running back, but in deep 16 team keeper leagues, they have value, believe me. So I took a chance; I like Morency’s running style, and a starting RB in Round 8 is thievery – I’ll get my TE’s and defenses later.

Ben Watson is an elite talent, but I have learned to hate watching him rot in my lineup, never gathering numbers like he should. He has dropped ball tendencies, but I love this kid’s game – he’s an all effort guy. All the tools in NE will hurt his numbers, though.

Arnaz had some very good games last season, and did himself solid in point per reception leagues; but will a real #1 threat take away from his numbers? I don’t think so. I like Battle, and as much as many think Lelie will steal catches from him – C’mon, how many times has Lelie stolen catches from anyone?

Rex Grossman went next, and if I hadn’t chosen Morency, I would have taken him. He’s not the bad fantasy quarterback many have him out to be. In fact, in his first full season as a starter, he has to be right at the top of touchdowns lists. He’s a good young prospect, one who will improve this season – regardless of all the criticism he gets.

The Patriots could have the best defense in all the land, this season. They did magic tricks in the off season, picking up the best guy on all the boards, plus they have a great set of guys already. They are old though, so be ware of injuries.

Chris Brown doesn’t have a team right now, but with LenDale White turning into a crispy crème spokesman, and Chris Henry being a rookie, many are expecting Brown to return to Tennessee. He’s had some big games, and he’s talented enough… This could be a steal.

Corey Dillon had a great career, but I’m a guy who thinks he’s played his last down in the NFL. Could he help some teams? Sure, but for the price they’re willing to pay, he’d just rather hang out at home with his family. He’ll pull a Keyshawn.

Joey Galloway was a great pick, even in a keeper league. He’s old, sure, but still one of the fastest receivers in the game. He didn’t have a “real” starting quarterback for much of last season, but he still had a solid year. Look for him to return to his 2005 numbers in ’07, both Chris Simms and Jeff Garcia will get him the ball more.

I think the 8th round is a bit of a reach for Randy. He’s got tons of talent, but I think he’s a little overrated. With Bruce, Holt, Bennett and Steven Jackson all catching passes, I just can’t see Randy being a Top 5 TE. That’s where he was picked.

Brett may not get the numbers he once did, but as a back-up, on a week to week basis, he’s not a bad selection. Brett will be decent this year, especially if his backfield works out, as I think it will. The line is older, and better, and Jennings is a year older. But this is a keeper league, and this is Brett’s last hoorah.

LJ Smith is a very solid tight end, and if McNabb can possibly be and or stay healthy this season, I expect a big year out of Smith. LJ is fast, his hands are solid, and he’s a big part of the Eagle offense. Still, I think there are guys out there who will outscore Smith at the TE spot.

I think Maurice Stovall was a bit of a reach, that’s for sure. I think Michael Clayton would have been a better selection, though still a bad one. Stovall maybe good, and maybe this owner knows something I don’t, but right now there’s 10 better options, at least.

Daniel Graham will be legit this season in Denver. He’s a very good, and underrated player. I know that most of the receiving threats that leave New England never do better elsewhere, but this will be that exception. I all but guarantee it.

Round 8’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Vernand Morency 116th
Worst Value – Randy McMichael 124th
Most Upside – Rex Grossman 119th
Best Player – Brett Favre 127th
Most Likely to Bust – Corey Dillon 122nd
Sleeper – Daniel Graham 128th