NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 11

As you well know, I was 6-8 last week putting me dead even at
68-68-5 for the season. I made some good bets, and some bets that didn’t turn out so well. Another week, another set of predictions. This boat continues to sail. We’re back to a league without bye weeks, which means… More games to win!SUPER DUPER PICKS Week 11
Chargers(-4) @ Raiders – This is my game of the week. That doesn’t always mean good things, but this one looks like a no-brainer. The Chargers have looked like a contender week in and week out. The Raiders have looked like a team without a go-to-guy, and without leadership. Drew Brees has been awesome, and there’s no reason that should stop this week against one of the leagues worst defenses. Brees has been on fire, and with the health of Ladainian Tomlinson getting better and better, he should have tons of open field to work with. Tomlinson should be big, but Brees will shred the Raider D. Four points is nothing in this one. Game Date: 11/21/04 16:05 ET

Falcons(-2.5) @ Giants – The Giants are without Michael Strahand, and are starting rookie Eli Manning. That should be enough to take the 7-2 Falcons right there. But, there is more. Aside from the game against The Chiefs in week 7, the Falcons D has stymied opposing rushers. If all The Giants have going for them is Tiki Barbar, what should happen this week? Obviously, with the benching of Warner, The Giants have decided that Eli is the future, and if the now has to suffer, then so be it. It’s either that, or they are real jealous of what Big Ben has done for his team in Pittsburgh, and want to give their rookie a shot to do the same. Eli should have trouble against Atlanta. The NY D should have trouble against Vick. This is also a no-brainer.
Game Date: 11/21/04 16:15 ET

Steelers(-4) @ Bengals – The Steelers are much better than the Bengals. They have an offense that can beat you in multiple ways, and a defense that can shut any team down. Big Ben has gone 7-0 in his first 7 starts. He hasn’t been perfect, but he is in an offense where he doesn’t have to throw 30 times to win. He just gets the job done week after week and has proven to be a leader. I expect Roethlisberger to air it out against the Bengals who will try to load up against the run. Then watch Bettis pound his way through a sub par run defense anyway. The Bengals have done all right of late, winning two in a row. But, the Cowboys and the Redskins aren’t the Steelers, lets make that clear right now. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Packers(-3) @ Texans – I’ve been taking The Texans all year. I don’t know if they’ve convinced me to go with someone else, lately, or if Brett Favre is just playing too good. Either way, I’m taking the Packers. Brett and Ahman have looked like a couple of Super Heroes in recent weeks, and David Carr has looked a lot like the rookie he was three years ago. There is always a chance for an upset here, but three points is too close not to take the Packers. The Pack broke my balls last week, but a win this week will at least pay for the doctor bills. Game Date: 11/21/04 20:35 ET

Patriots(-3) @ Chiefs – The Patriots defense isn’t The Saints defense. Derrick Blaylock will find that out this Sunday. The Chiefs will also realize that Derrick Blaylock is no Priest Holmes. He was damn good last week, but like I said, those were The Saints. Even against The Saints, and with over 200 yards of offense from Blaylock, the Chiefs still couldn’t win. I don’t know what makes anybody think they’ll stay in a game with a championship team like The Pats. I sure don’t. Take the Patriots here. They should obliterate an inferior defense.
Game Date: 11/22/04 21:05 ET

Lucky Lester’s Picks For Week Eleven

Redskins @ Eagles(-10.5) – The Redskins against anybody right now would look good if you took the anybody. I’ve got to be honest, if the Eagles were favored by 20 in this one, I would have a hell of a time going with The Skins. They are horrible offensively. Although they play tough on the other side of the ball, their offense gives up too much to ever give the D a chance. The Eagles are too good and The Redskins are too bad to go any other way with this game. 10.5 points is a lot, but the game is in Philly. They are at least that much better then the Redskins. Game Date: 11/21/04 16:15 ET

Rams(-1.5) @ Bills – The Rams took the W against the Seahawks last week. Although they are bad away from the fast turf in St. Louis, and have been known to be off and on, they are still much better than The Bills. Buffalo was shown up by The Patriots last week, when Cory Dillon rushed for 144 yards against them. Drew Bledsoe got the hook late, but this week it could be early. I’m rooting for The Bills here, not because I like them, but because they are giving their #1 draft pick to the Cowboys next year. With that said, I don’t give them an honest chance this weekend. They are bad, and The Rams are decent, at least. I predict a Rams victory. I also predict a JP Losman sighting early. I also predict Losman will gain more rushing yards than Bledsoe has in his career. I’m not sure how many yards that is, but if it’s more than 40 I’d be flabbergasted!
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Cowboys@ Ravens(- 8) – We all know how I feel about The Cowboys, but I’m not sure The Ravens can handle the 8 point spread. Then I realize that even Kyle Boller will have a field day against the Cowboy’s beleaguered secondary. Couple that with an angry Jamal Lewis and, hey, the Ravens should actually move the ball this week. Even more lopsided is the prospect of Vinnie Testaverde and Eddie George coping with the lethal Raven defense in Baltimore. Bill Parcells has aged visibly trying to coach this “stupid” Cowboy team. Don’t expect them to get smart this week against the Ravens.
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Jets(even) @ Browns – The Jets showed that they can perform last week against a tough Ravens team. Their D was tight, holding Jamal Lewis to 70 yards on 30 rushes. They also held Kyle Boller to low numbers… okay, okay, who cares about that last one, but they were tough. Quincy Carter let it be known that he is no slouch. He can handle the Jets while Pennington is out, especially with Curtis Martin in the backfield. Curtis ran for 110 yards last week against the Ravens. He’s a stud! The Browns should help the Jets end their slide. NY is the better team here. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Lions @ Vikings(-7.5) – The Vikings have had trouble winning ball games lately, but they’ve been in every one besides the Giants game in week 8. The Lions had a terrible game last week, and if it weren’t for punt returns they wouldn’t have produced a touchdown. They also lost to the Redskins two weeks ago, and the Cowboys the week before that. I can’t see them playing tight with a Vikings team that has something to prove this week. The Lions are still a year away, and the Vikings should demonstrate that to them on Sunday. Culpepper will win without Moss this week, and it should be by a large margin. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Colts(-7.5) @ Bears – The Colts stuck it to The Texans last week. But where has Marvin Harrison gone? He had 22 yards last week, for God’s sake. Those aren’t numbers a number one receiver gets, (unless you’re David Terrell), and especially not receivers who have been the best in the league for the last three years. Look for Peyton to utilize Marvin a little more against The Bears this week. I’d bet he posts more touchdowns than the Bears manage as a team. The Bears can’t ride Craig Krenzel another week. They will lose this week, and I’m guessing the game is a laugher. If The Bears win this game, I will be tempted to scream at Grandma! Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

49ers @ Buccaneers(-8) – I’ve said the Buccaneers aren’t good enough to be 7 point favorites against anybody… but I forgot about the Niners. The Bucs should shred a defense that has only gotten worse as the season has progressed. Neither Tim Rattay nor Ken Dorsey (especially not Ken Dorsey) should be able to do jack against the Bucs D that still brings it on Sunday. The Bucs got beat by a good Falcons team last week, but should find life easier in week 11. Pittman will be back to gaining big yards, and Griese (yes Brian Griese) will be tossing the pigskin to rookie Mark Clayton.
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Broncos(-4) @ Saints – The Broncos beat the crap out of Houston before their bye week. Although they have been inconsistent at times this season, Denver should be able to take advantage of quite possibly the worst defense in football. (That counts college) The Saints gave up 225 yards of offense to a backup running back last week. Reuben Droughns should rush for upwards of 175 yards in week 11. Jake Plummer will finally have a good game on the road. The Saints, well, my guess is they underachieve, disappoint fans, and make plans to do the same thing again next year. But hey… I’m only going by their history. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Dolphins @ Seahawks(-10) – Last week, The Seahawks looked as bad as they have looked in years. Hasselbeck brought me back to the days when I was asking why Holmgren brought him to Seattle in the first place. Last year he was great near the end, and almost beat a good Green Bay team in the playoffs. He was oozing with confidence, and leading his team. This year, at least lately, has been a little different. He has looked pathetic. My thinking is, he can only go up from here. He’s a competitor, and he’s playing against the definition of a lost team. Miami’s defense is horrid against the run, which will allow the leagues leading rusher, Shaun Alexander, to be the man on Sunday. This will only help Matt and The Hawks. Look for a winning streak to start on Sunday. Game Date: 11/21/04 16:05 ET

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (no line) – Last week against The Bears, Tennessee gave up virtually nothing as far as yardage is concerned. Keith Bullock said himself, “The defense only gave up 3 points.” That wasn’t all. They held Craig Krenzel to a 17 quarterback rating. They also limited The Bears to only 160 yards of total offense. But, they still found a way to lose. (An overtime safety… ouch) So, with this in mind, and the fact that Jacksonville always seems to find a way to win, I have to take The Jags. Fred Taylor looked awesome last week, and David Garrard looked good as well. The Titans have found ways to lose all season; I see that trend continuing on Sunday.
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Arizona (no line) @ Carolina – Carolina finally got a win last week. It was against a pathetic 49er squad, but it was a win. I guess someone has to win those games. Arizona has played pretty well all season. By giving the ball to “The Emmitt Smith” they have gotten some W’s and with a late season surge could stumble into the playoffs. Anquan Boldin is back, and things are looking pretty good. They are 4-5, and look tough under Dennis Green. Carolina has no running back, their top receiver is out, their o-line is depleted, and their defense is only a splinter of the solid unit they were a year ago. Look for Arizona to squeak this one out. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Good Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester

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