Oakland Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers Free Football Pick: I think the Raiders have a pretty good defense, better than the statistics tell us. I think the Steelers aren’t quite as good as people think, they’re closer to the 6-5 team than the defending Super Bowl Champion that people are still giving them credit for. The Steelers are good, no doubt, and they should take this game easily, especially after tumbling to the Chiefs two weeks ago, and losing a tough game to Baltimore on Monday Night last week. But they don’t kill opponents, and as crazy as it seems to be taking Oakland at +11.5, I’m going to do it. Right now you can get the Raiders as 2 touchdown dogs almost anywhere, and 14.5 dogs at most places. That’s obviously a better bet, but that’s what I get for putting out a newsletter early in the week. I knew this line was going up to my advantage, but I got the best number I could on Monday Night…

Why do I like the Raiders? Well, with Bruce Gradkowski they have an accurate passer, and I’ve always liked their talented receiving options. They’ll need to take some chances against a Steelers secondary that will be going all in on the short passes, but I think Bruce can hang in there and complete some deep throws against the pass rush – and that could be enough for a cover.

The Steelers are playing on a short week’s rest, and they aren’t always smart about committing to the run. I’ll take the points – you should too!

Oakland Raiders (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers