New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Pick: This one is a little scary when I look at the betting numbers. Despite being a huge public favorite from the get go, the line has actually moved away from the 6.5 it started at, and is already down to 5 at a select few books. It rests at 5.5 almost everywhere else – and while 6.5 and 5.5 are rarely any different when it comes to line work, I just don’t see what the “sharps” see or whomever is responsible for moving this line the way it’s going. And that’s what scares me I guess, not that the line is moving, or where it’s moving, but the fact that I just can’t see it.

Every time the Patriots have gotten beat, they’ve come back and blasted their next opponent. That’s how their attitude (collectively) works. Their leaders don’t like losing, this is one of the most competitive groups in sports, and they atone for losses better than anyone. After a loss this season, they are 3-0 SU and ATS.

Plus, the Patriots have owned the Dolphins over the last couple years. Sure, the Fins had that one Wildcat game that put the offense on the map and had many people questioning the direction of the Patriots defense, but 4 of the last 5 have gone to the Patriots – only that one game was won by Miami – the Patriots have won by at least 10 on all four occasions, 20 or more three times.

The Dolphins have a nice rushing attack, and they can run on anyone, but the Pats scheme against the run very well, and without a passing attack to really hurt the Pats, I just don’t see what “they” see. I’ll take the Patriots, but I’ll continue to look for a reason not to. Damn Vegas, has me tripping out some times.

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins