Free College Football Picks Week 11 – 2007

Week 10 wasn’t successful, but you win some and you lose some – that’s the nitty gritty. For week 11’s action, I have 5 free underdog sides that I’m posting after my 5 free picks, as a sort of double pick bonus for the week of double snake eyes. Celebrating the 11 weeks of my Free College picks thus far this season. Enjoy the big wins! Ride those dogs!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 11

Michigan State Spartans @ Purdue Boilermakers (-4):
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: SBG Belmont)

Michigan State is 1-3 on the road, while the Boilermakers are 5-1 at home. State has always been a poor road team, and obviously Purdue feels most comfortable in front of their home crowd. Weird. Purdue’s offense and overall team make-up is much more impressive than the Spartans unit that seems to be wearing down fast after losing 5 of their last 6 ball games. The games have all been close, but that kind of wear and tear on a football teams’ mental psyche can certainly have an impact. Always getting close and always coming short can only allow you so many “moral victories”. Those kind of wins are over in Michigan State – Purdue will assist that assurance.

Indiana Hoosiers (-2) @ Northwestern Wildcats
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Hoosiers are the much better team here. Some expect a let down after the Hoosiers got a much needed win over Ball State last week, but I don’t see it. They’ve handled every bad team they’ve played all season long, and a couple decent squads as well. They have 4 losses on the season, all to Big 10 contenders, Wisconsin, Penn State, Mich State, and Illinois. The Wildcats shouldn’t put up much of a fight, despite the Hoosiers two game road losing streak. They still beat Iowa in Iowa. Look for Kellen Lewis and James Hardy to hook up for a couple TD passes that seal the deal, and the 7th win for Indiana. Indy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and they haven’t lost a game that they’ve been favored in all season long.

North Carolina @ North Carolina State (-3.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

North Carolina played around with the idea that they were back in the mix as a solid college football program, but like many pretenders realize, the early months can mask the reality of the matter, and a few close games haven’t amounted to anything in terms of their record. They sit at 3-6. North Carolina State has played better and better as the season has moved forward, while the Tarheels struggled besides a win against Miami, and a win over Maryland last week. This week, they go on the road, where they’ve been terrible thus far. They lost at East Carolina in Week 2, at South Florida (10-37) in Week 4, at VaTech in Week 5, and at Wake Forest (10-37) in Week 8. They are 0-4 on the road. NC State should win by 10.

South Florida Bulls (-16) @ Syracuse Orange:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Syracuse is bad, and the Bulls are a solid football team. Sure, they have struggled of late, but they won’t turn the ball over like they did last week, and I don’t see the Orange doing much in terms of stopping South Florida either. Defensively, I expect 10 points or less out of the Orange, which means 27 points from SF will win it. They’ve scored at least that much in 6 of their 9 games. This will be the 7th time.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+9) @ Clemson Tigers:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

I’m pretty sure this is the game Clemson always loses. Yep, they tease the public into believing they are for real, win some big games, and then fold like a freaking lawn chair. I don’t know how to see it any other way, the Deacons are no pushover, and they play their best ball when their opponent is supposed to be a big favorite. Over the last 3 seasons, the Tigers are 15-19 ATS as a favorite. And while they are 11-2 SU in games where they are favored by 7.5 or more over the last three seasons, the Tigers don’t seem to play well when they are playing in a game that will decide the difference between a very nice season, and a Clemson-like mediocre campaign.

Five Free Dogs!

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (+5.5)
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodog)

Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers (+3):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodoglife)

Illinois Fighting Illini (+15.5) @ Ohio State Buckeyes:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Bodoglife)

Connecticut Huskies (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bearcats:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6.5) @ Texas Longhorns:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

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