Round 10
33. Brandon Jones
34. Demetrius Williams
35. Brodie Croyle
36. Dallas Clark
37. Vikings Defense
38. Joe Horn
39. Michael Jenkins
40. Mushin Muhammad
41. Damon Huard
42. Chris Henry
43. Sammy Morris
44. Packers Defense
45. Warrick Dunn
46. Seahawks Defense
47. Troy Williamson
48. Michael Clayton

Brandon Jones could, and probably will be the #1 in Tennessee. That makes him an absolutely great pick. Will Vince learn how to utilize his arm this season? If so, Jones is a steal here.

Demetrius Williams looks like he’s going to be a great pro. He might be a #3 again this season, but don’t expect that to last. Next year he starts, guaranteed.

Brodie Croyle apparently has the best shot at a starting gig in Kansas City now that Trent Green is out of the picture. I don’t see it. Huard will start, I’m sure. However, this draft was prior to the Green trade.

I love to get Dallas Clark where I did. If anyone out there took the playoffs into account, he was a super star. He had the most catches on the Colt roster, and had more yards than either of the star receivers. He was hurt last season, so he’s slipping in drafts everywhere. Be the guy who waits and waits to pick a TE, and still gets a stud in Dallas Clark.

The Vikings defense was one of the best units in football last year. But, they lost their coordinator (a brilliant defensive mind) to Pittsburgh, so will they be the same? They have enough talent, but their offense could shoot them in the foot one too many times.

Joe Horn will likely be the Falcons #1 this coming season… What doesn that mean? He’s equal to somewhere around a slot receiver for your average team. Because Vick is such a good passer, that’s why.

In Atlanta Micheal Jenkins is probably the best receiving option this side of Algae Crumpler. Horn is getting the pub, but Jenkins is younger, faster, and bigger. Mike Vick doesn’t do well with small targets.

Mushin Muhammad has lost a step, and he wasn’t ever really fast. He’ll always be a touchdown threat, as I think he could get as many as 8 this season. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if this was the last season he was much of a fantasy threat at all. Like Moulds a couple years back.

Like I said, I like Huard to start, and at this point in their careers, he’s better than Trent Green. If Dwayne Bowe can become an instant threat, ala Anquan Boldin a couple seasons’ back, Huard will be a solid #2.

Chris Henry was an interesting pick, but I figure well worth the chance. At this point, most teams are taking #4 WR’s anyway, so why not sit a guy with all that talent on your bench. Sure he’s a nut case, but if he gets his screws bolted, he’s a double digit TD guy.

Sammy Morris is the back-up in New England. And while I think Laurence Mo is one of the brightest young runners in the game – if he goes down, and many think he’s injury prone, Morris could see the bulk of carries. That makes him worth something. But I think people are forgetting about Warrick Dunn.

The Packers are very underrated. They were between 5-8 in almost every defensive format last season, plus they’re younger, and didn’t lose much on that side of the ball. They’ll be good again this season.

Finally, someone took Warrick. He’s old, and Jerious Norwood has loads of talent, but Warrick is still the starter, and in Round 10, that’s a great deal – regardless of age.

The Hawks defense has too many great players to play as bad as they did last season. This year should be different, as Peterson, Tatupu, and Leroy Hill make one of the best linebacking corps in the league. Look for them to take the next step this season.

Troy Williamson got his eyes fixed, and if that helps him catch, getting a Top 10 draft pick talent in Round 10 is a great deal. If he continues to suck, this was a waste of a pick. He sure is fast, though. I wish 40 times got you fantasy points.

To finish up the 10th round, Michael Clayton was chosen. It just goes to show you how fast the NFL can turn you upside down. A couple years back, Clayton was one of the premier young receiving talents in the game, now he’s a reach in the 10th round.

Round 10’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Warrick Dunn 157th
Worst Value – Michael Clayton 160th
Most Upside – Brodie Croyle 147th
Best Player – Warrick Dunn 157th
Most Likely to Bust – Joe Horn 150th
Sleeper – Demetrius Williams 146th

Round 9
17. Jeff Garcia
18. Broncos Defense
19. Steve McNair
20. Cowboys Defense
21. Trent Green
22. Jaguars Defense
23. Drew Bennett
24. Daunte Culpepper
25. Reggie Williams
26. Chris Perry
27. Panthers Defense
28. Matt Schaub
29. Byron Leftwich
30. Earnest Wilford
31. Eagles Defense
32. Isaac Bruce

Jeff Garcia could have a solid year in Tampa Bay. He also could have a bad year, and lost the starting gig to Chris Simms, but I wouldn’t bet on that. Regardless of what people think, Gruden isn’t Andy Reid, and the Bucs aren’t the Eagles. I would expect a very mediocre year for Garcia at best, but still much better than Tampa’s QBing last season.

The Broncos defense will be set with one of, if not the best secondary in the game. Now, if their linebacking corps and lineman can stop the run and cause pressure – they’re nice.

Steve McNair is as old as dirt, and he just can’t move like he used to. He’s never been a gun-slinger. I don’t know what people expect from him next year, but no way does he get 20+ touchdowns. As a stop gap at back-up, he’s still too old for a keeper format.

The Cowboys defense should be legit under Wade Phillips and company. IN fact, if the Cowgirls can somehow stop a pass or two, they’ll be a Top 5 unit. If Roy Williams continues to cover people, they’ll get beat deep often.

Trent Green will bomb out in Miami, Cleo Lemon will eventually start for the Dolphins, and hopefully, just hoping here, Daunte Culpepper catches on somewhere else and plays healthy for the first time in a couple years. I think Daunte would still be the best option in Miami.

The Jaguars have a very good defense. They don’t do anything spectacular, but limit point totals, and make plays. They rarely allow a 100 yard rusher, but special teams and scoring TD’s aren’t their strong suit, so as a Fantasy D, they’re just a little above average.

Drew Bennett is big, fast, and white. He has good hands, and should have a better season in ’07 than he did in ’06. He’s the big receiver the Rams never had, and should get a few red-zone tosses, but I don’t think he’ll be worth starting this season, unless he gets the #2 spot from Ike Bruce – don’t see it happening.

Daunte, Daunte, Daunte… Where has thou gone? Confused I am, for you are nowhere to be found… I hope that Pep catches on somewhere an throws 38 touchdowns, or at least gets healthy. This cat used to have so much promise – he’s worth a shot at the bottom half of drafts.

Reggie Williams will have his best season as a pro in 2007. The new Jaguar offense looks more passing friendly, and will allow Lefty and his big receivers to make plays downfield, where they thrive. Reggie isn’t a short rout, small space guy. I like this pick.

Chris Perry is the reason trainers have jobs. This cat is injured more than Ken Griffery Jr. If Perry can ever stay healthy, he might be worth this pick. But it looks like the Bengals are fixing to lose hope.

I think the Panthers have the makings of a Top 5 defense. Hell, I think, if they put it together, they could very well find themselves in the super bowl. Lets see what they do with what they got, but I think this is a good pick.

I really wanted Schaub to fall to me, because I’ve always liked him. I liked him prior to the Schaub press push, prior to the ESPN the Mag shoots, and prior to everyone else questioning if he was or wasn’t the best QB in Hotlanta. But I didn’t get him, yet I still think he’ll make some things happen in Houston.

So, I lose Matt, but am thankful to snag Lord Byron. It looks to me like he’s ready for a solid season in Jacksonville. His receivers are maturing, the offense suits him better, and he’s in the last year of his contract. I’ve always dug Byron’s style – now here’s to his health… Cheers!

Earnest Wilford catches touchdown passes, but I have a feeling he’ll never match his totals from two years ago. Reggie Williams is starting to get more looks, and Matt Jones is improving as we speak. Plus, Dennis Northcut is scheduled to be the small, quick threat on short passes. Wilford could be left out to dry.

The Eagles Defense really improved during the off season. There are linebacking options galore, and with Javon Kearse back, and ¾ of the Eagle secondary, I expect big things from Philly this season.

Good ol’ Ike Bruce. Isaac actually looked pretty good in the latter half of 2006. While I think taking him is a risk in a dynasty format; surely he has the numbers to be worth a spot. Longterm is not his strong-suit, but he could be a nice option this season. He’s always been good, I can’t argue with that.

Round 9’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Byron Leftwich 141st
Worst Value – Chris Perry 138th
Most Upside – Matt Schaub 140th
Best Player – Cowboys Defense 132nd
Most Likely to Bust – Trent Green 133rd
Sleeper – Reggie Williams 137th

Round 8
1. Chad Pennington
2. Wes Welker
3. Chargers Defense
4. Vernand Morency
5. Ben Watson
6. Arnaz Battle
7. Rex Grossman
8. Patriots Defense
9. Chris Brown
10. Corey Dillon
11. Joey Galloway
12. Randy McMichael
13. Brett Favre
14. LJ Smith
15. Maurice Stovall
16. Daniel Graham

Chad Pennington will never have elite fantasy numbers, but as a 2nd string guy, he’s not too shabby. And remember, he’s pretty young – and has a couple decent seasons under his belt. Still, there’s better options out there.

Wes Welker is obviously loved by the Patriots coaching staff, but will that translate into fantasy stats? With Stallworth, Moss, Watson, Maroney, and more – I don’t think so, not worth an 8th round pick.

The Chargers Defense has the most upside of the Top 3 defenses taken, but with a new coaching staff in place, will they be as good this season? They might be too risky to take high, but you’ve got to love their young nucleus of talent.

I didn’t need a running back, but in deep 16 team keeper leagues, they have value, believe me. So I took a chance; I like Morency’s running style, and a starting RB in Round 8 is thievery – I’ll get my TE’s and defenses later.

Ben Watson is an elite talent, but I have learned to hate watching him rot in my lineup, never gathering numbers like he should. He has dropped ball tendencies, but I love this kid’s game – he’s an all effort guy. All the tools in NE will hurt his numbers, though.

Arnaz had some very good games last season, and did himself solid in point per reception leagues; but will a real #1 threat take away from his numbers? I don’t think so. I like Battle, and as much as many think Lelie will steal catches from him – C’mon, how many times has Lelie stolen catches from anyone?

Rex Grossman went next, and if I hadn’t chosen Morency, I would have taken him. He’s not the bad fantasy quarterback many have him out to be. In fact, in his first full season as a starter, he has to be right at the top of touchdowns lists. He’s a good young prospect, one who will improve this season – regardless of all the criticism he gets.

The Patriots could have the best defense in all the land, this season. They did magic tricks in the off season, picking up the best guy on all the boards, plus they have a great set of guys already. They are old though, so be ware of injuries.

Chris Brown doesn’t have a team right now, but with LenDale White turning into a crispy crème spokesman, and Chris Henry being a rookie, many are expecting Brown to return to Tennessee. He’s had some big games, and he’s talented enough… This could be a steal.

Corey Dillon had a great career, but I’m a guy who thinks he’s played his last down in the NFL. Could he help some teams? Sure, but for the price they’re willing to pay, he’d just rather hang out at home with his family. He’ll pull a Keyshawn.

Joey Galloway was a great pick, even in a keeper league. He’s old, sure, but still one of the fastest receivers in the game. He didn’t have a “real” starting quarterback for much of last season, but he still had a solid year. Look for him to return to his 2005 numbers in ’07, both Chris Simms and Jeff Garcia will get him the ball more.

I think the 8th round is a bit of a reach for Randy. He’s got tons of talent, but I think he’s a little overrated. With Bruce, Holt, Bennett and Steven Jackson all catching passes, I just can’t see Randy being a Top 5 TE. That’s where he was picked.

Brett may not get the numbers he once did, but as a back-up, on a week to week basis, he’s not a bad selection. Brett will be decent this year, especially if his backfield works out, as I think it will. The line is older, and better, and Jennings is a year older. But this is a keeper league, and this is Brett’s last hoorah.

LJ Smith is a very solid tight end, and if McNabb can possibly be and or stay healthy this season, I expect a big year out of Smith. LJ is fast, his hands are solid, and he’s a big part of the Eagle offense. Still, I think there are guys out there who will outscore Smith at the TE spot.

I think Maurice Stovall was a bit of a reach, that’s for sure. I think Michael Clayton would have been a better selection, though still a bad one. Stovall maybe good, and maybe this owner knows something I don’t, but right now there’s 10 better options, at least.

Daniel Graham will be legit this season in Denver. He’s a very good, and underrated player. I know that most of the receiving threats that leave New England never do better elsewhere, but this will be that exception. I all but guarantee it.

Round 8’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Vernand Morency 116th
Worst Value – Randy McMichael 124th
Most Upside – Rex Grossman 119th
Best Player – Brett Favre 127th
Most Likely to Bust – Corey Dillon 122nd
Sleeper – Daniel Graham 128th

Round 7
17. Dominic Rhodes
18. Kellen Winslow
19. Mike Furrey
20. Todd Heap
21. Bernard Berrian
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Tony Romo
24. JP Losman
25. Alex Smith
26. Leon Washington
27. Mike Bell
28. Devery Henderson
29. Greg Jennings
30. Jason Witten
31. Jon Kitna
32. Ravens Defense

Dominic Rhodes drove his hot performance in the Super Bowl right to the Bar, then got caught drinking and driving, and was sentenced to 3 years with the Oakland Raiders. He won’t start, and will never duplicate the numbers he had last season, which weren’t that good in the first place.

Kellen Winslow is a nice player, one of the best TE’s in the league, but how will he recover from Micro-Fracture surgery on his knee? Apparently he’ll never be 100%, but I still think he’s a solid bet to catch 75-80 balls if he’s healthy.

Mike Furrey had amazing stats last season, but the question is, can this former safety do it again with Calvin Johnson joining the receiving corps? I don’t like Mike this high, in fact there are 5-10 guys left on the board I’d rather have.

Todd Heap is a safe bet to get it done year in and year out. He always seems to fly under the radar, but as far as TE’s go, there are few that are as talented as him.

Bernard Berrian is the #1 receiver in Chicago. Getting a solid, young, speedy #1 in the 7th round of a 16 team keeper league means it was a nice selection.

Jake Delhomme is a great selection here. He had one bad year. Last year, this cat was one of the Top 10 quarterbacks taken. This year, he’s going later. Wait and grab this guy late, he should have a big comeback year in ’07.

Tony Romo is a Top 7 guy for me, easily. If I didn’t blow an earlier pick on a quarterback (Tom Brady) I would have selected Romo in the 6th Round. His per/game numbers are brilliant, and I am one of the guys who only expects him to get better. Remember, he only has started half a seasons worth of games.

JP Losman is a solid pick here, as many are claiming he’ll take the next step this season. I’m not so sure about that, but he did take a huge step forward last season. He could be in trouble with a rookie RB, but I think Lynch is better than Willis, and Lee Evans is one of the most outstanding receivers in the game.

Alex Smith has lost some love from fantasy owners now that Norv Turner has moved to the head coaching position in San Diego, but I think Smith will be better in his 3rd season. Many forget that rookie quarterbacks take time to mature, and he’s doing it very fast in SF. D-Jack and a healthy Vernon Davis should improve his TD numbers.

Leon Washington probably won’t get as many chances as he did last year, as Thomas Jones is sure to come in and be “The Guy” in New York. But, with very few backs left, he’s not a bad pick here. But why not take Morency in Green Bay?

Mike Bell showed some flash last season, but he also proved to be inconsistent in his frist season in Denver. With Travis Henry signing a big deal this summer, what will Bell’s carries look like?

Devery Henderson had some nice games last season, and while he looks to have a chance to start this year with Joe Horn out; I wouldn’t be so sure. I like Devery, but the coaches seem to love rookie receiver, Robert Meachem, though Rob’s early injuries might get Henderson the starting nod.

I obviously like Greg Jennings’ upside, that’s why I snagged him here. With all the receivers going off the board, I don’t know how this top rookie performer lasted this long. However, I could be stuck with the Keary Colbert and Michael Clayton syndrome…

Jason Witten is a great young talent who looked better catching balls from Romo than he did from Drew Bledsoe. However, with Wade Phillips looking to get TO the rock, will there be many red-zone looks for the big TE?

Jon Kitna is an underrated fantasy performer. Whomever the quarterback in a Mike Martz system, the cat will bring home the numbers. Kitna isn’t afraid to fling it, and with all his talented options, he’s bound to be a top fantasy performer next season. But, for how long?

The Ravens Defense was the 2nd unit off the board, and while they are one of the Top 3 units in the league, I still can’t justify picking a defense this early.

Round 7’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Tony Romo 103rd
Worst Value – Mike Bell 89th
Most Upside – Kellen Winslow 98th
Best Player – Todd Heap 100th
Most Likely to Bust – Dominic Rhodes 97th
Sleeper – Greg Jennings 109th

Round 6
1. Matt Hasselbeck
2. Jason Campbell
3. Darrell Jackson
4. Santana Moss
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Reuben Droughns
7. Matt Jones
8. Ronald Curry
9. Hines Ward
10. Bears Defense
11. Algae Crumpler
12. Kevin Curtis
13. Brandon Marshal
14. DJ Hackett
15. Terry Glenn
16. Chris Cooley

I can’t believe the guys selected in front of Matt. If I knew Matt was going to be there in Round 6, I would have gone running back or receiver in Round 4, and let Tom Brady go somewhere else. In fact, Matt was the first of many good QBs that left in Round 6. But, he’s the best one out there.

Jason Campbell is a winner. He’s got a nice touch, he’s smart, he wins ball games, and the rest of the team believes in him. It will be interesting to see if he builds on last seasons starting success, or if he struggles a little now that he knows he’s got it. I like him a lot, though, and think this was a great pick.

D-Jack, the guy I wanted to get, was thieved just prior to my selection. Even in San Francisco, Jackson will be a fantasy force. He’s fast, runs good routes, and has learned to catch the ball over the last few years. I can’t believe the receivers picked ahead of Jack.

I was bummed I didn’t get Jackson, but am stunned to pick up Moss in the 6th round as well. Its amazing how, in a keeper league, I still got Moss in the 6th round. Sure, he’s been hurt, and he’s small, but with Campbell coming into his own this season, I have a feeling we’ll get to see Moss at his best. Jason can wing it, and Moss can run with anyone.

I think Big Ben will step up after last seasons’ poor play and become the guy everyone thought he’d be last year. He’s a great pick here, especially when you consider that he’s better than a bunch of signal callers who were selected before him. Take advantage of guys who aren’t the “sexy” pick, and your draft will be solid.

Droughns had a couple good seasons in his career, but barring injury, I don’t think he’ll ever have another. Jacobs is a touchdown beast, plus he’s going to get the bulk of the carries in New York. At best, Reuben is a viable back-up or handicap.

Will this be the year Matt Jones finally steps out of his “prospect” label and has a solid season? I think so. I think Jones is the best receiving threat in Jacksonville. I also think the receivers in Jax are pretty good. They’ll benefit from a new offense this season, and probably hit the playoffs fairly easily. Jones is a nice Dynasty pick.

I thought I could get Ronald Curry a round later, but apparently I was wrong. And for good reason, as Curry will be the #1 in Oakland, for an offense that will be throwing the rock plenty. JaMarcus Russell and Curry will form quite the bond, and if Ronald can stay healthy (always a big if with RC) then this pick will turnout to be amazing.

Hines Ward was a great pick here. Honestly, I couldn’t decide who to take, Moss or Ward, but went with Moss because of his youthful exuberance. Ward had a down year last season, but he’s too good to stay down, especially if Big Ben comes back and plays like I know he can. Good selection.

I never like taking a defense before the 10th round, but apparently these Bears are pretty good. With Devin Hester returning kicks and punts, surely the Bears are a dangerous squad in any defensive scoring format, but I don’t know how good of a pick this is. The Ravens are very good, and there are many other Ds that look like good picks, and they’ll go much later. Too early for a defense, even the Bears.

Algae Crumpler is always a good pick. He’s not too old, though he seems ancient. I don’t think his numbers will be hurt if Vick goes down, though Mike loves to feed Crump the ball. Crumpler is a touchdown machine.

It will be interesting to see if Kevin Curtis’s game can translate to a team without Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce. I’ve always liked Curtis’s ability to go up and make a play, despite his limited size. If McNabb comes back in full health, Cutis could be a hell of a pick up.

Brandon Marshall is risky, but seems to be a sexy pick of late. Me personally; I think Rod Smith will come back this season and have a good year, making Marshal and #3 in Denver. But, he’s really fast, and seems to have the speed to team with Javon Walker in the future.

I think DJ Hackett was the most talented receiver in Seattle last season. I think Seattle looked back at the film and saw the same thing. Many people are giving Branch the #1 duties this year, but don’t be surprised if D-Hack takes D-Jack’s spot.

Terry Glenn is old, but remains productive. I wouldn’t want him on my dynasty team, but you can’t argue with him as a solid and safe pick. He’ll get less chances now that Phillips is ready to give Owens the ball a lot, but he’ll still be a viable option from week to week.

Chris Cooley is a great tight end. He’s always a good touchdown guy, and played much better under Campbell. I expect him to have a better season than Vernon Davis, Jeremy Shockey, and probably even Algae Crumpler. He’s the only big-man threat in the red zone for the Redskins.

Round 6’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Matt Hasselbeck 81st
Worst Value – Brandon Marshall 89th
Most Upside – Jason Campbell 82nd
Best Player – Matt Hasselbeck 81st
Most Likely to Bust – Reuben Droughns 86th
Sleeper – Ronald Curry 88th

Round 5
17. Braylon Edwards
18. Jerious Norwood
19. Chirs Chambers
20. Fred Taylor
21. LaMont Jordan
22. Phillip Rivers
23. Eli Manning
24. Donte Stallworth
25. Jericho Cotchery
26. Laveranues Coles
27. Matt Leinart
28. Vincent Jackson
29. Deshaun Foster
30. Santonio Holmes
31. Tony Gonzalez
32. Vernon Davis

I’m not sure how stoked I am about Brady Quinn coming in this season and saving the Browns, but I do think Cleveland will be better offensively, making Edwards a nice selection here. He’s a great future prospect, and honestly, I wouldn’t be stunned if Charlie Brown comes in and pulls a Drew Brees this season. Yes, everyone thought Drew was a bust way back when.

Jerious Norwood is a kid I absolutely love. He’s an amazing talent with the ball, and I can’t imagine, if he gets close to 20 touches a game, that he isn’t a Top 15 running back. He was a guy I wanted with my last pick, and I’m stunned he lasted this long. All the talk about Atlanta needing a bigger back has scared people off, but his talent won’t let him sit.

Last season, Chris Chambers was leaving the board early. What a difference a year makes. Pep didn’t workout last season, and Joey Harrington wasn’t a savior either. This year, Pep gets a second chance, or will it be Trent Green? A kid named Lemon? A rookie? Chambers is a risky pick, especially with his inconsistency over his career.

Fred Taylor is a very good running back, and not a bad pick in Round 5, but his age, and one of the most talented young backs in the league getting equal reps could end up making this Fred’s last season in the league.

A couple years ago, LaMont Jordan was a breakout stud, even on a bad Raider team. Last year, he was a fantasy team killer, barely scoring enough points to even get him on the radar. But this season could get LJ back on track, as a new offense that suits his style could make him a player again. Either that or Dominic Rhodes will get all the reps, and he was a terrible pick. You can see the risk.

Personally, I think Phillip Rivers is going to be a star very, very soon. He’s got a great offensive coach that will improve his game, the best running back in the league, a defense that will allow him to take chances, and a couple young receivers that are improving. I’d rather have Rivers than Vick, Young, and probably even Jay Cutler. He’s a solid pick here.

Eli Manning has been all but forgotten in recent fantasy drafts. People hate picking this kid. It seems like last season he was getting taken very, very early; especially in dynasty leagues. I stilly think he has a chance, and was probably a decent pick here, but he is such a damn head case.

Donte Stallworth is not a good pick here. He has one year in New England, and that’s why he went this early. Moss will get most of the catches in that offense, as Donte will be held under 60 receptions. I like his speed, but injuries and personality problems will hurt him in the “sharing is caring” offense in NE.

Jericho Cotchery was a much better selection than Stallworth. Cotchery is a young, hard working, strong receiver that is playing in a very good offense where he will soon be the top target. This is a great future pick.

Laveranues Coles goes a pick after his understudy, but you can only blame that on Coles, who has been quoted saying, he doesn’t know how long he can play in an offense that send his over the middle, getting him hit too much. Not exactly buttering up your long-term value. But I like Coles, he’s a very good, and underrated receiver.

I’m surprised Matt Leinart fell behind both Young and Cutler, but he did, by more than a couple picks. How can you not love Matt’s situation. He is a touch passer on a team with two awesome receivers that both love to go up and get the ball. He could have the best year of the ’06 rookie signal callers.

Vincent Jackson is a great prospect, and he looks good on paper. Plus, he improved greatly by seasons end, in which he became the #1 wide receiving threat in San Diego. But he went ahead of some good guys. He has a lot to prove, but has a high payoff if he gets down to business.

I felt like I had to take Darrell Jackson here. I wanted to go with Deshaun Foster, and did because he is a starting running back on a team I think can do big things this season. Foster is still the starter, regardless of DeAngelo Williams’ presence. Getting a starter, one who is relatively young, in Round 5 of a 16 team dynasty league draft is too good of a deal. I had to take it.

Santonio Holmes could be Big Ben’s big target for years to come, but will he ever gather the consistency? I don’t know if he’s that type of receiver. He sure is talented though, and is learning from a good partner in Hines Ward, who was still on the board by the way. Holmes has a high reward, and he’s not too risky.

Tony Gonzalez could have the best season at the tight end spot this time around. Gates is amazing, but without Trent Green floating passes all over the field, it seems to me that Tony G will have a more productive year. He’s aging, but should have 2 to 3 more productive seasons at a weak position. He’s a better pick than Shockey.

Vernon Davis is a reach here. Davis didn’t do enough when he was on the field to get picked this high. I like Davis, as almost everyone who’s a fan of football does, but just because you like a guy doesn’t mean you should reach for him. He’s a tight end, and he’s not a Top 5 guy. He shouldn’t be picked prior to Round 7 or 8 in any format. But if ever he would move up to the 5th round, it would be a 16 round full keeper.

Round 5’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Jericho Cotchery 73rd
Worst Value – Vernon Davis 80th
Most Upside – Jerious Norwood 66th
Best Player – Tony Gonzalez 79th
Most Likely to Bust – LaMont Jordan 69th
Sleeper – Santonio Holmes 78th

Round 4
1. Julius Jones
2. Randy Moss
3. Jamal Lewis
4. Tom Brady
5. Donald Driver
6. Antonio Gates
7. Jeremy Shockey
8. Donovan McNabb
9. Reggie Brown
10. Mark Clayton
11. Tatum Bell
12. Vince Young
13. Mike Vick
14. Jay Cutler
15. Deion Branch
16. LenDale White

While I don’t think Julius Jones is the best runner in Dallas, he remains a very good, fast, and young running back in a draft in which most have been selected. Also, he is currently a starter in Dallas, playing for a coach that has historically played one back as a starter, rarely opting for the “shared reps” scheme Coach Parcels loved. Also, this team needed another running back bad; Jones is a decent selection.

Randy Moss went in the 4th, making me wonder where he would have been picked had he stayed in Oakland? That may never be answered, but nonetheless, Moss’s move to the East Coast has upped his draft stock quite a bit, and why wouldn’t you select an amazing talent like Moss with a quarterback like Brady throwing him the ball. Remember, Moss is aging, and his production has really bombed of late; but many think that is a result of down times in Oakland. We’ll see.

Jamal Lewis, a back who is much younger than many realize, will be the only ball carrier fore a Cleveland Brown team that looks much better on the offensive line since selecting Joe Thomas and signing Eric Steinbach. They’re still the Browns, and Lewis looked bad last season, but what many people don’t realize is that Lewis played all season with bone spurs, which he had removed this off-season. Could he be back?

With all the top quarterbacks off the board, Palmer, Brees, Bulger, and Manning, teamed with QBs getting 6 points per TD pass, I felt I had to grab Brady here. All his weapons in New England, the best coach in football, and his pinpoint accuracy left me with no choice, though I hate, hate, taking QBs before the 6th round. This could come back to kill me… My running back situation could be scary.

Donald Driver left the board next, a great player who always seems to slip down draft boards. All he’s been is great year after year, and with Favre still firing passes, Driver seems to be the only guy trusted enough to catch those missiles. He’ll be good yet again.

I considered taking Gates a couple picks ago, so I’m not surprised he’s off the board midway through round 4. Actually, I’m stunned he lasted this long. He’s a great player to have, because he’s the best at his position by far, but I’ve seen him get picked in Round 2, and that’s way too early.

Hahaha… Jeremy Shockey was a terrible pick here. He always drops balls, is a head case, plays for a lame-duck coach, a young quarterback who struggles mightily with accuracy, not to mention a number of other things. He’s not even the 2nd best tight end. This pick was just brutal.

Donovan McNabb is probably the 3rd most talented quarterback, but his constant injuries, and the recent drafting of a 2nd round QB in Philly, has many questioning the player who was leading all fantasy players in points prior to his torn ACL last season. Yes, leading. He always scores a ton when he plays… I think this was a good pick.

Its nice to see Reggie Brown, McNabb’s very young #1 receiver, get selected right after Donovan. When the Eagles let Donte Stallworth go, they made Brown their #1 guy. Brown will get plenty of help from Kevin Curtis on the other side, and Westbrook will still get plenty of catches, but if McNabb is healthy for most of the season, Reggie will be a top performer at WR.

Mark Clayton, a player I thought I could get later, because many fantasy owners pay too much attention to overall season stats with young players, went in the 4th, which is early but not unjustified. He’s the best receiver in Baltimore, and will benefit from another year in the league, and a newly revamped offensive line and running game. Clayton is a great young player, who will become a Top 10 receiver this season.

Tatum Bell could be a hell of a steal here. He always showed flashes of brilliance in Denver, but Shanny the Rat hated him, basically begging for him to fail. In Detroit, he could get everything he ever wanted, if…. If Kevin Jones is wrong about coming back for the season opener, and misses the year, or a large portion of the year. Bell is a great fit in Detroit, but Jones is more talented. Should be interesting – This pick is very risky, as its possible Bell could turn out to be a 3rd down back-up type.

Even in a dynasty league, I think Vince Young is a very risky pick this early. Vince had some great plays last season, but the passing consistency wasn’t near the marks he had in college, and most of his points came from the scramble. In a league that rewards passing touchdowns and rushing TDs equally, Vince isn’t a good option.

Mike is always going to have the same problem. He lacks consistency, and most of his points come from the ground attack, making him an injury risk. Vick was a Top 5 QB last season, but there were more than 5 weeks where he scored single digits. That’s scary. The Draft was prior to the Dog problems, or at least the bulk of them.

Jay Cutler went next, and honestly, I think he’s a better pick than either of the first two, but each one of these picks made me feel better about my pick of Tom Brady. Cutler has a cannon, a nice offense, and a coach who will let him sling it. But I still think the 4th round is a little early to grab Cutler.

Deion Branch didn’t show me much last season, but as it seems, he showed the Hawks brass plenty. Seattle traded their best receiver, D-Jack, for a 4th round pick, instantly making Branch the #1 option in Seattle. This may come back to haunt me, but I predict DJ Hackett scores more points than Branch.

LenDale White struggled to get on the field last season, and when he was there his production was pretty limited. However, I see why he was chosen this early. He has lots of talent, is a touchdown scoring back, and has himself to blame if he doesn’t get the starting gig in a pretty good rushing attack in Tennessee. Still, he needs to speed up next time he sees the Crispy Crème drive-through. Kid is causing traffic jams.

Round 4’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Antonio Gates 54th
Worst Value – Jeremy Shockey 55th
Most Upside – Jay Cutler 62nd
Best Player – Tom Brady 52nd
Most Likely to Bust – Deion Branch 63rd
Sleeper – Donovan McNabb 56rd

Round 3
1. Carson Palmer
2. Drew Brees
3. Ladell Betts
4. Marvin Harrison
5. Anquan Boldin
6. Andre Johnson
7. Marques Colston
8. Brandon Jacobs
9. Deuce McAllister
10. Marc Bulger
11. Lee Evans
12. Ahman Green
13. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
14. Michael Turner
15. Plaxico Burress
16. Terrell Owens

Round 3, in my opinion, is as early as you should even think about taking a quarterback. If you can get Manning in the middle to end of Round 2, and all of the good runners are taken, then go for it. If not, don’t even think quarterback until Round 3, and even then, you better be getting Carson Palmer. He went 1st overall in Round 3, and the only reason I condone this pick is because I think he’s the top quarterback in fantasy football.

Drew Brees went 2nd, as my buddy started to get worried about having a top signal caller. I think this is a small reach, despite his big numbers. While I think Brees will be good for a long time, he’s rarely going to have the stats he did last year. If he proves me wrong and has an ’06 repeat, he was a solid pick here.

Ladell Betts in the 3rd round? In a dynasty league, this pick isn’t as crazy as you think. Sure, he’s got Portis ahead of him, but he’s a dynamic runner, and even if he doesn’t start this year, he’ll get a chance soon, and I think he’ll succeed nicely.

Marvin Harrison, the old man that he is, went 36th overall, a year after leading many leagues in receiver scoring. He’s old for a dynasty league, but the guy never takes hits, and you can’t argue with his production year after year after year.

Anquan Boldin, whom I think is a better dynasty pick than Harrison, was taken immediately after the famous Colt. Boldin is a great pick because he’s just as talented as Larry Fitzgerald, and usually goes at least 10+ picks behind the popular youngster. When healthy, Boldin is a beast.

Andre Johnson made it 3 receivers in a row, and with Matt Schaub at the helm, this youngster is getting lots of love. He’s so talented, and I think he’ll have his best season in the pros. Plus, he’s young, and will be very good for a long, long time.

Colston, last years’ 7th round pick rookie wonder, made it 4 WR’s in a row. I love Colston, think he has “IT”, but I think this is too high, even in a keeper league, for the young Saint whom only has a year under his belt. With so many options in New Orleans, can he continue to be the beast he was through the first 8 games of last season? That’s what drafters who take him early are hoping.

At pick 40, Brandon Jacobs’ new owner has to be delighted. Jacobs has 20 touchdown potential, has a solid team in New York, and has Droughns behind him, which should give him some much needed snaps off. The only reason Jacobs fell was the run of receivers and quarterbacks in the last 10 picks. I was praying BJ would get to me.

Deuce followed Jacobs, and I think he’s a solid dynasty pick. He’s not as aged as many think, and while injuries have taken him out, the recent two back system in New Orleans will keep him healthy, and give him a chance if the Saints cut him loose, to start for the team of his choice. There will be takers if he’s a FA next season.

Marc Bulger went next, making him the 4th quarterback taken. Bulger will be healthier now that Martz isn’t dropping him back 7 steps every down, but still, a 3rd rounder on Bulger is too high for my liking. However, don’t be confused, over the last 3 seasons, only McNabb and Manning have scored more fantasy points per game started than Bulger – at least in my leagues.

Lee Evans, a kid that I absolutely love, and was oddly expecting to fall into my lap, went next. He’s got as much talent as anyone in the league. Him and Steve Smith are the biggest homerun threats in the game, plus he’s young, and his quarterback is learning how to get the rock to him downfield.

Ahman Green was a good value late in Round 3, especially with all the backs leaving so fast. Green will impress a lot of people while sliding through the cracks in Gary Kubiak’s zone system up there in Houston. His style is perfect for that offense. Don’t forget how fast he is. Even as he gets up there in age, he’s a nice bet for 2 years of nice fantasy points.

I took TJ Houshmandzadeh with my late 3rd round selection. He’s not the youngest guy, but he hasn’t been abused over his seasons. He’s just come on lately, and last season he had more fantasy points per contest than his highly rate teammate, Chad Johnson. Whether its Johnson’s double teams, or Palmer’s trust in Housh’s TD grabbing hands, the fact is, Mr. Championship himself gets looks. I think I got a steal here, but of course I do, that’s why I took him. All I’m saying is, at the end of the season, look at TJ’s numbers, compare them to the guys taken ahead of him, you’ll see why I’m happy getting him here.

Michael Turner was a stunner to many guys out there, especially since the Chargers promised he was going to be LT’s backup for yet another season. But is it a bad dynasty pick? Sure, this season, you’re basically missing your 3rd round pick, unless Tomlinson gets injured. But next season, you have one of the most promising young starters in the league. Turner has all the skills to be a Top 5 guy. Imagine if Seattle gets Turner to replace Shaun Alexander next season, he’d destroy things in that offense. Anyway, risky pick, but not a terrible one.

Plaxico Burress was taken with the 2nd to last pick in Round 3. I like Burress, in fact I’m one of the 10 that do, but I think there were better options out there, especially with Eli Manning’s troubles over the last few seasons. And Tom Coughlin’s situation makes me worried about most New Yorkers.

The bomb hit when TO finally heard his name selected at the very end of Round 3. The bottom line is, he’s the best player taken in this round, aside from maybe Carson Palmer. He’s dominant; One of the best receivers of all time, just look at the way he can take over games when his head’s in it. When his head is in it. TO’s struggle with that will haunt him forever. He’s old, but in better shape than 90% of the league. Dynasty pick, he’s risky, with age, and his personality problems, who knows what TO will do next. If he plays – you can’t go wrong, he’s a TD machine.

Lots of crazy stuff here, Michael Turner was gone before many thought he should go, TO was selected, and wide receivers started to hear their names called all throughout round 3. I only disagree with a couple picks, but take my advice, holdout on quarterbacks, set yourself up for a Championship!

Round 1’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Brandon Jacobs 40th
Worst Value – Michael Turner 46th
Most Upside – Michael Turner 46th
Best Player – Terrell Owens 48th
Most Likely to Bust – Terrell Owens 48th
Sleeper – Lee Evans 43rd

Round 2
1. Chad Johnson
2. Travis Henry
3. Thomas Jones
4. Maurice Jones Drew
5. Edgerrin James
6. Steve Smith
7. Larry Fitzgerald
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Tory Holt
10. Cadillac Williams
11. Reggie Wayne
12. Marion Barber
13. Javon Walker
14. Chester Taylor
15. Kevin Jones
16. Roy Williams

Chad Johnson, a guy I love as a player, but also a guy whose fantasy numbers frustrate me. Sure, Chad topped some charts last season, and was in the Top 3 in everyone’s wide receiver rankings, but his numbers seem to be clumped together and that alone will kill a fantasy season. Ocho Cinco has great numbers, but if you look at ’06 you’ll see the majority of his stats clumped into 3 weeks.

Travis Henry will have first round numbers this season, guaranteed, so he was a great pick at 18. He has always been legit since his days in Buffalo.

Thomas Jones was another great selection, as his consistent nature steps in behind a great young offensive line in New York.

I took Maurice Jones Drew because I love what he did in his first year, love how he runs, and have done so since his days at UCLA. If he ever gets 25 carries a game, he’s a Top 5 guy.

Edgerrin James was a great pick, and has the chance to be great in Arizona in a system that made Mr. Bettis such a household name in Pittsburgh.

Steve Smith, the best receiver in football, was another great selection, especially in a points per reception league.

Larry Fitz, who I think has as much upside as any receiver in the league, went 23rd. If Leinart improves, and James becomes more of a threat, you could see 12-13 touchdowns from Fitz in ’07. Plus, he’s really young.

DeAngelo Williams has tons of talent, and whenever he’s on the field his production has been superb. But will he stay healthy? And how long will he play second fiddle to Deshaun Foster?

I’ve said it for years, Tory Holt is always open. Last year wasn’t one of Tory’s best, but if you look at his stats, its hard to argue with the best Ram pass catcher. Bulger is accurate, and the Ram rushing attack allows the receivers to run with single coverage. I’d worry a little about Holt’s age, but not enough to call this pick bad.

Cadillac Williams really struggled last season, but look at the offense in Tampa last season. You’re starting quarterback shouldn’t be a 6th round pick from Toledo. Caddy has the talent, this year he’ll be better. For the second season in a row, the #2 receiver in Indianapolis was selected ahead of Marvin.

Reggie has youth on his side, and over the last two seasons, he’s been right there with Harrison.

Marion Barber, the back up in Dallas, was selected pretty high, but how can one ignore the touchdown craze that Barber had in ’06? I don’t think he’ll repeat his total, but I do like his running style more than Julius Jones’. The question is; what will Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett think?

Javon Walker has been a hot topic in the fantasy world, especially since Jay Cutler got the job in Denver. Cutler’s laser arm and high risk passing should give Walker plenty of chances. I like this pick.

Chester Taylor was a tough pick for me to swallow. I thought there were better backs on the board, and you have to imagine Adrian Peterson’s selection will limit Taylor’s effectiveness.

Kevin Jones is a big chance in the 2nd round. People in Detroit have Jones either missing the season, 6 games, or being ready by game 1. I don’t like that chance in the 2nd round, especially with a back accustomed to health problems.

I think Roy Williams has as much talent as any receiver in the league, and with a full repertoire at receiver, Calvin Johnson and possession specialist Mike Furrey, I think Williams will flourish in Detroit. Lots of chances were taken here, including my selection of Jones Drew, but all were reasonable. No quarterbacks were taken, which I always appreciate, and aside from Chad Johnson’s early selection and Chester Taylor leaving the board, there’s much to like in Round 2.

Round 2’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Roy Williams 32nd
Worst Value – Chad Johnson 17th
Most Upside – Maurice Jones Drew 20th
Best Player – Steve Smith 2nd
Most Likely to Bust – Chester Taylor 27th
Sleeper – Kevin Jones 31st

I’ve been trying to get a grasp on this year’s fantasy crop, but hitherto it’s been tough to forecast who was going where, what the draft was going to entail, and which free agents were going to hit the market on draft day to find new treads.Now that I have the nuts and bolts sorted out, with only mini-camps, optional workouts, and actual camps ahead, I decided to cram 15 friends in a room and bust out my first fantasy non-mock, but real, draft of the season. Unlike many of my sports-writer brothers from another mother, I like to put my “real” fantasy drafts out there for all to see.

For our first draft, we decided a full-roster keeper league, with a normal draft from 1-16 (then snake) then a rookie draft from 16-1 (then snake), would be the best way to start the show. For this league, receptions are worth a point, defenses score a little more on average than usual, and all touchdowns are worth 6 points. The roster starters; QB, RB, RB, Flex, WR, WR, TE, K, D. The Flex spot is either TE, WR, or RB. I was saddled with the 13th pick. This is how the cookie crumbled.
Round 1
1. Steven Jackson
2. LaDainian Tomlinson
3. Larry Johnson
4. Frank Gore
5. Reggie Bush
6. Willie Parker
7. Laurence Maroney
8. Joseph Addai
9. Clinton Portis
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Cedric Benson
12. Shaun Alexander
13. Ronnie Brown
14. Peyton Manning
15. Willis McGahee
16. Rudi Johnson

From the word GO, pick number 1 was a huge surprise, but should it really be that stunning in a full roster keeper format? Especially in a ppr league. Sure, LT had the best fantasy season of all time last year, but with a new coaching staff, and a Chargers team that will rely more on the arm of 2nd year starter Phillip Rivers, one wouldn’t be clever to predict a repeat performance from LT2. Add that to the fact that Stephen Jackson is 4 years younger that LT, and this pick isn’t so surprising anymore. However, LT, the best fantasy player in the game, went 2nd, and that was a steal. He’s amazing.

Larry Johnson became the 3rd pick, and I imagine, in some order or another, that’s how the first 3 picks will look in most drafts in any format. After that, it begins to differ.

Pick 4 took Frank Gore, my buddy Gary is hoping for another healthy season, and improvement out of both the 49ers offense in general, and the 3rd year man out of Miami. Personally, I love Gore, and he was huge for me last season, but with the 4th pick in a dynasty league, I’d be worried about his health, especially since he is the focal point of an average offense that lost the offensive coordinating genius, Norv Turner.

Reggie Bush went higher than I expected, taken 5th, but his 88 receptions, and improvement over the last few games of the season made this pick a little easier. However, I like both Maroney (7th) (even with his injury) and Joseph Addai (8th) more than Bush. Willie Parker went 6, and truly, the speedster in Steel Country has all the goods. He’s more powerful than anyone gives him credit for years ago, he’s as fast as they come, and his grit impresses me. Plus, he’s a solid pass catcher as well. I expect Maroney to have a huge year, and I was hoping he’d get to me with 13 – Addai followed Mo, making a quick draft for the first 3 rookie backs selected in last years’ draft (people are preparing for the future).

Clinton Portis went next, but you have to wonder if Ladell Betts’ big finish at the end of ’06 will hurt Clinton’s fantasy total in’07. He’s still a nice selection, and when healthy, one of the best backs in the game.

I’m surprised, in a receptions league, Brian Westbrook lasted until pick 10, but he did. Think of how high Westbrook would go if only he never got hurt. At 10, Westbrooks’ upside is thievery. After Thomas Jones’ departure to the Jets, the Bears’ Cedric Benson became a hot commodity, and thus he’s moved up quite a bit in drafts everywhere.

11’s as high as I’ve seen Ced going, but surely the upside is there to be had, especially in a keeper.

Finally, last year’s consensus number two, Shaun Alexander, was selected at 12. Surely his age is scary in a keeper league, but a talent like Shaun, in an offense like Seattle’s; you have to like a guy like that with the 12th pick.

Honestly, I’m happy my buddy Vic selected Shaun, because I didn’t want to take him, but would have had to with pick 13. Instead, I was stuck with an interesting decision; do I go with a player like Rudi Johnson, whose as stable as it gets, Thomas Jones, who will be the man in New York with a very good and young offensive line, Maurice Jones Drew, who I think the world of, or a guy like Ronnie Brown, all the talent, speed, and power in the world, and a job in an offense that produced LT’s great numbers.

I took Brown, and though he hasn’t been the stud many have predicted, I think his skill set-will flourish on a team run by Cameron, plus his youth is a big plus for me (however, I didn’t know he came into camp 20 pounds overweight – we’ll see how that works).

The first non-running back went next, Peyton Manning, but I must say, I think he’s a terrible pick unless you get a huge steal late. I’ve yet to see a guy pick Manning first and win a fantasy championship. He’s awesome, but a QB with your first pick hurts.

At pick 15, Willis, the over-hyped Miami product, now being acclaimed as the last piece of a championship in Baltimore, McGahee left the board. Honestly, I don’t think he’s as good as he thinks he is, but what do I know?

With the last pick in Round 1, my good buddy Mic took the steady, and touchdown driven, Rudi Johnson. I’m not sure about Rudi’s long-time run but surely he’s still young enough for even a full-time keeper format.

I don’t think you could be disgusted with any of the selections, aside from Manning; but a couple risky picks were Bush, Benson, and Brown. I don’t know if they’ve done enough to be selected where they were.

Round 1’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Shaun Alexander 12th
Worst Value – Peyton Manning 14th
Most Upside – Laurence Maroney 7th
Best Player – LaDainian Tomlinson 2nd
Most Likely to Bust – Clinton Portis
Sleeper – Ronnie Brown

I’ll be back with more in a couple days with more rounds in the fantasy football draft. – Lucky Lester