2007 NFL Fantasy Draft Round 1

I’ve been trying to get a grasp on this year’s fantasy crop, but hitherto it’s been tough to forecast who was going where, what the draft was going to entail, and which free agents were going to hit the market on draft day to find new treads.Now that I have the nuts and bolts sorted out, with only mini-camps, optional workouts, and actual camps ahead, I decided to cram 15 friends in a room and bust out my first fantasy non-mock, but real, draft of the season. Unlike many of my sports-writer brothers from another mother, I like to put my “real” fantasy drafts out there for all to see.

For our first draft, we decided a full-roster keeper league, with a normal draft from 1-16 (then snake) then a rookie draft from 16-1 (then snake), would be the best way to start the show. For this league, receptions are worth a point, defenses score a little more on average than usual, and all touchdowns are worth 6 points. The roster starters; QB, RB, RB, Flex, WR, WR, TE, K, D. The Flex spot is either TE, WR, or RB. I was saddled with the 13th pick. This is how the cookie crumbled.
Round 1
1. Steven Jackson
2. LaDainian Tomlinson
3. Larry Johnson
4. Frank Gore
5. Reggie Bush
6. Willie Parker
7. Laurence Maroney
8. Joseph Addai
9. Clinton Portis
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Cedric Benson
12. Shaun Alexander
13. Ronnie Brown
14. Peyton Manning
15. Willis McGahee
16. Rudi Johnson

From the word GO, pick number 1 was a huge surprise, but should it really be that stunning in a full roster keeper format? Especially in a ppr league. Sure, LT had the best fantasy season of all time last year, but with a new coaching staff, and a Chargers team that will rely more on the arm of 2nd year starter Phillip Rivers, one wouldn’t be clever to predict a repeat performance from LT2. Add that to the fact that Stephen Jackson is 4 years younger that LT, and this pick isn’t so surprising anymore. However, LT, the best fantasy player in the game, went 2nd, and that was a steal. He’s amazing.

Larry Johnson became the 3rd pick, and I imagine, in some order or another, that’s how the first 3 picks will look in most drafts in any format. After that, it begins to differ.

Pick 4 took Frank Gore, my buddy Gary is hoping for another healthy season, and improvement out of both the 49ers offense in general, and the 3rd year man out of Miami. Personally, I love Gore, and he was huge for me last season, but with the 4th pick in a dynasty league, I’d be worried about his health, especially since he is the focal point of an average offense that lost the offensive coordinating genius, Norv Turner.

Reggie Bush went higher than I expected, taken 5th, but his 88 receptions, and improvement over the last few games of the season made this pick a little easier. However, I like both Maroney (7th) (even with his injury) and Joseph Addai (8th) more than Bush. Willie Parker went 6, and truly, the speedster in Steel Country has all the goods. He’s more powerful than anyone gives him credit for years ago, he’s as fast as they come, and his grit impresses me. Plus, he’s a solid pass catcher as well. I expect Maroney to have a huge year, and I was hoping he’d get to me with 13 – Addai followed Mo, making a quick draft for the first 3 rookie backs selected in last years’ draft (people are preparing for the future).

Clinton Portis went next, but you have to wonder if Ladell Betts’ big finish at the end of ’06 will hurt Clinton’s fantasy total in’07. He’s still a nice selection, and when healthy, one of the best backs in the game.

I’m surprised, in a receptions league, Brian Westbrook lasted until pick 10, but he did. Think of how high Westbrook would go if only he never got hurt. At 10, Westbrooks’ upside is thievery. After Thomas Jones’ departure to the Jets, the Bears’ Cedric Benson became a hot commodity, and thus he’s moved up quite a bit in drafts everywhere.

11’s as high as I’ve seen Ced going, but surely the upside is there to be had, especially in a keeper.

Finally, last year’s consensus number two, Shaun Alexander, was selected at 12. Surely his age is scary in a keeper league, but a talent like Shaun, in an offense like Seattle’s; you have to like a guy like that with the 12th pick.

Honestly, I’m happy my buddy Vic selected Shaun, because I didn’t want to take him, but would have had to with pick 13. Instead, I was stuck with an interesting decision; do I go with a player like Rudi Johnson, whose as stable as it gets, Thomas Jones, who will be the man in New York with a very good and young offensive line, Maurice Jones Drew, who I think the world of, or a guy like Ronnie Brown, all the talent, speed, and power in the world, and a job in an offense that produced LT’s great numbers.

I took Brown, and though he hasn’t been the stud many have predicted, I think his skill set-will flourish on a team run by Cameron, plus his youth is a big plus for me (however, I didn’t know he came into camp 20 pounds overweight – we’ll see how that works).

The first non-running back went next, Peyton Manning, but I must say, I think he’s a terrible pick unless you get a huge steal late. I’ve yet to see a guy pick Manning first and win a fantasy championship. He’s awesome, but a QB with your first pick hurts.

At pick 15, Willis, the over-hyped Miami product, now being acclaimed as the last piece of a championship in Baltimore, McGahee left the board. Honestly, I don’t think he’s as good as he thinks he is, but what do I know?

With the last pick in Round 1, my good buddy Mic took the steady, and touchdown driven, Rudi Johnson. I’m not sure about Rudi’s long-time run but surely he’s still young enough for even a full-time keeper format.

I don’t think you could be disgusted with any of the selections, aside from Manning; but a couple risky picks were Bush, Benson, and Brown. I don’t know if they’ve done enough to be selected where they were.

Round 1’s Winners and Losers

Best Value – Shaun Alexander 12th
Worst Value – Peyton Manning 14th
Most Upside – Laurence Maroney 7th
Best Player – LaDainian Tomlinson 2nd
Most Likely to Bust – Clinton Portis
Sleeper – Ronnie Brown

I’ll be back with more in a couple days with more rounds in the fantasy football draft. – Lucky Lester

Leave a Reply