My 5-3-1 Week 1 was followed by a nail biter that came down to Monday Night. I started off hot, and hopefully you did too, but my end game wasn’t what I’d hoped it would be, and sure enough, I struggled. Follow my ups and downs in my week 2 Review.

Atlanta Falcons (+11) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (win)

“I hate to do this, but the Jaguars favored history just isn’t very appealing. I expect a 20-13 game here, and I also expect it to go by fast. Over the last 3 seasons, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS when giving 7.5 or more points. Their only win came last year against Tennessee on the 5th of November.” (Me) Well, my analysis was right on the dot, minus 7 points from each team. The Jags, as I predicted, weren’t ready to take enough chances to outshoot the Falcons. They were in control, and won the game, but Jacksonville won’t be able to do too much of that if they want to win games.

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5): (win)

“I just don’t see this game being closer than 10 points. I know its not cool to take 10 point favorites like the Steelers, but defensively, they looked special last week in Cleveland. I know the Phoenix Suns’ defense would look good against the Browns, but the Steelers’ defense has that swagger back. Big Ben should find plenty of room to throw the ball in Buffalo’s secondary. Willie Parker will have upwards of 150 yards, and the Steelers should win by 2 touchdowns.” Well, Pitt won by 3 scores, and Willie stayed under 150, but not by much. The Steelers didn’t need to throw the ball too much in this contest, as the Bills’ offense was even worse than I imagined. Buffalo didn’t stand a chance.

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ New York Giants: (win)

“The Packers haven’t been very good over the past 3 seasons, but on the road they show heart. Not only are they 14-9-2 ATS over the last 3 years, but they are 12-13 SU on the road as well. The Giants’ defense isn’t going to shut down the Packers’ offense like the Eagles did. Yes, the Packers have rebuilt their team around a talented defense, and they will give the Giants trouble, even if Manning shows up. It will be interesting, but after playing 2 quality NFC East opponents in the first 2 weeks of the season, I expect the Pack to be 2-0.” Hey, the Packers surprised everyone, except me. I said it, even if Eli played, the Pack defense would run his show. These young packers could lead Brett back to the playoffs. But this week, how ’bout the old man, tossing touchdowns like his Pro-Bowl days. Starting off with 3 wins usually means good things… Usually turned into “Not this Sunday” really fast.

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5): (loss)

“The Panthers are 11-14 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, and they’ve never won more than 5 games at home during that time span. They aren’t a home team hero, that’s for sure. The Panthers are only 8-6 ATS as a 6+ point favorite over the last 3 seasons, but they’ve won 9 of their last 10 games favored by 6 or more, and are 8-2 ATS over that time. I think the Texans are much better this season, but also think they aren’t as good as their 20-3 score against the Chiefs showed last week.” Carolina looked pathetic, and the Texans are as good as their 20-3 win over the Chiefs. Matt Schaub is the real deal, I’ve been saying it for years. I need to listen to my research. I know the Panthers have covered big spreads recently, but those were against bad teams. In the first few weeks of the season, big spreads are put up against decent teams, which was the case here. Dang me, sorry.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ Tennessee Titans: (loss)

“Vince Young skipped his way to 10-2-2 ATS as a starter in this league, which makes him a bettors best friend. Unless you’re me, and you keep betting against the young star from Texas.” Uh, the Colts were up easy, then let one of those simple don’t matter, let Vince Young cover touchdowns in, and then all of a sudden VY and company had a chance. And they that chance was dashed, but is there anybody better at covering than Vince? 11-2-2… That’s championship material. Now if only I’d pay heed.

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (-3): (loss)

“This is a very tough game for me, but I have to go with the Rams, if only because they have a guy named Steven Jackson trying to redeem himself after a pathetic Week 1 performance where he literally fumbled the game away. The Rams were already without Todd Steussie, and now Orlando Pace is out for the season, but the 49ers gave up rushing yards by the bundles to Arizona in Week 1. Steven Jackson’s opening Week 1 disappointment could continue as he’ll have a tough time getting anywhere without blockers paving the way.” This game was way too close to be comfortable with, and I warned you, but it looks like I should have listened to myself a little more when deciding my take on the game… The Rams will have a tough go without lineman blocking.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3): (push)

“I know the Vikings shut down the Falcons in Week 1, but remember, Minnesota’s defense scored more points than their offense. Minnesota won’t get that lucky every week, as I can’t imagine they return two interceptions for touchdowns ever again this season.” It turns out I was wrong. The Vikings scored yet another defensive touchdown, and Darren Sharper forced a fumble and had two interceptions. This defense is tight. However, the Viking offense was even less productive in Week 2 than they were in Week 1, and that left room for the Vikings to get the game winning field goal, and a big fat push.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears (-12): (loss) The Chiefs are bad, but like defenses do sometimes, the Bears let up a little when it was obvious that the Chiefs offense was levels below the Bears defense. A touchdown that didn’t matter put this game out of reach for a Bears offense that looks very bad. Another loss all but assured me a losing week 2.

N.Y. Jets +12 @ Baltimore Ravens: (win)

“I like the Ravens to win this one, but their offensive game plan and execution last week weren’t enough to gain them 12 points against New York, even if they do have to rest Chad Pennington. I expect a better performance out of the Jets running game, even against feared Baltimore.” (me) Yeah, I picked this one on the dot. The Ravens were obviously the better team here, and aside from the last half of the last quarter, the Jets never really had a chance. However, 12 points was way too much, and the Jets covered easily.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5): (loss)

I was pretty sure the Eagles would come out and blast a Redskins team that has had a lot of trouble with the green birds over the last 10 ball games. However, it was the Eagles’ playcalling and poor execution that decided this game. Sure, Philly still had a chance coming down the stretch, but they didn’t do anything impressive the entire game. In face, aside from Brian Westbrook, who was and is a very special player, the Eagles looked lost on offense. There was dropped balls, and plays where 4 receivers ran routes and not a one could get anything close to open. My idea of what the Eagles are is changing fast. The Eagles were my pivot game, and surely enough, they took me to the cleaners, bringing my total to 4-5-1… Not a good day, but on a day of crazy upsets, I’ll take the 4 wins when I can get them. Still over .500 and I’ll push for a big week in Number 3.