In the first week of the season, only 6 underdogs won or covered the spread. In week 2 only 7 of the 16 underdogs won or covered. week 3 saw 9 of 14 underdogs win or cover. That anomaly basically took a sledgehammer to my balls. I’m expecting week 4 to have the least amount of underdog covers thus far. That’s why I’m only taking 5 dogs. This year, I have lost 5 more games than I’ve won. This week, I have a goal; I want to get my overall record back to even par. I hear the Packers have a goal too; they want to win a game. We’ll see which happens first. Follow my thought process now and sing my praises by week’s end. This is Lucky Lester trying to make amends…Buffalo at New Orleans (E) – The Saints are back to the inconsistent ways of their past. Aaron Brooks hasn’t played up to his ability, and Deuce McCallister can’t find room to run behind his offensive line. Last week against Atlanta, Buffalo lost their top defensive player, Takeo Spikes, for the remainder of the season. Willis McGahee had a great game against the Falcons, but he can’t win games by himself. Deuce will have an easier time against Buffalo without Spikes there to stop him. Aaron Brooks has to play better for the Saints to win, and he’ll do so this week in San Antonio. The Saints defense, led by Dwight Smith, will corral JP Losman, who hasn’t proven to be much of a presence at quarterback. The Saints will need big turnovers to win their second game of the year, but they’ll get them early, and hold on late for the victory. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Denver at Jacksonville (-4) – Jacksonville, Oh Jacksonville, please kick the crap out-the Broncos. I was watching Monday Night Football with the biggest Bronco fan of all time. Of course he was one of those Bronco fans who love to rub it in when their stupid Mile High Snipers pummel the Chief team you bet your entire bank roll on. They don’t care that you are losing more money than their Wal-Mart working asses make in an entire year. They sit there and say, “Who did you bet on?” – “What’s the score?” and you just want to kill them. Well this week I’m out for revenge, and I’m going to get it. I’m taking the Jaguars to win at home big. The Jaguars are one of the leagues best team, and unfortunately for Mike Shanahan’s Denver Donkeys, this isn’t a Monday night game. This is a Sunday Morning game against one of the best rush defenses in the league. Look for Jacksonville to put some separation between them and the pretenders.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-7) – Right before the Lions took a week off, they got hammered by the Chicago Bears. Kyle Orton played well enough to absolutely embarrass the revamped Lions. Tampa Bay on the other hand is 3-0 with big wins and little wins alike. They held on to take the Packers in Green Bay last week, 17-16. They beat Minnesota in Week 1, and halted the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. The Bucs have allowed under 11 points a game in 3 contests. This week will be more of the same for Gruden, Cadillac Williams, and the rest of the much improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions had one bad week, but they shouldn’t be left for dead. They have an explosive offensive bunch if Joey Harrington plays well, and their defense has many new players who have yet to mesh. They will still be a player in the weak NFC North. As for Week 4, the Lions should be dominated by a Buccaneer team who has already meshed, already played well, and seems to be getting better every game.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Houston at Cincinnati (-9.5) – The Bengals are favored by nearly 10 points for a reason. The Texans haven’t played within 10 of anyone, and the promise that was there a year ago seems to have fallen like David Carr’s wounded ducks. All the blame can’t go to David though, his offensive line hasn’t played very well. But it’s all right to blame David for most of it. He’s looked as pathetic as third year quarterback Carson Palmer has looked brilliant. Palmer is an early, very early candidate for MVP, as he’s played a large roll in turning the Bungels into ferocious Bengals once again. This Bengal team is full of talent all over the football field. Chad Johnson is the best young receiver in this league, and Rudi Johnson has proven to be as tough as they come. TJ Houshmenzadah has played the 2 receiver roll perfectly, and Chris Perry has done a great job at back up running back. Look for the Bengals to continue down their warpath, and the Texans to continue to play the roll of roadkill. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee – The Titans played well enough to cover last week in St. Louis, while the Colts played just well enough to win at home against Cleveland. So this week should mark another close contest? No chance. I’m sure Peyton Manning is sick of all the “Where’d Peyton go?” talk that’s circulating. I’m expecting a huge week from Manning and the rest of the Colt offense. The Titans don’t have the fire power to play with the Colts. Chris Brown is the lone running back in the backfield, so expect the highly talented back to have his biggest day of the year. In fact expect the Titans to score more points against he Colts than any of the Colts’ previous opponents. But don’t expect Steve McNair to pull out a victory on Sunday. The Colts will eventually take this game easily, blowing out the Titans in Tennessee. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

San Diego (+5.5) at New England – The Patriots lucked out big time last week in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger played one of his worst games in his young career, and Willie Parker and the Steeler rushing attack didn’t do jack. This week the San Diego Chargers, coming off their big win against the Giants on Sunday Night Football, are coming to New England for one of the weeks biggest games. I don’t think the New England defense, minus their starting linebackers from a year ago, minus their best defensive player Rodney Harrison, will be able to stop Antonio Gates or the leagues best running back, Ladainian Tomlinson. For the first time in a long while, LT ran like the guy who broke into this league. He had the best single game of any player so far this year. (192 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards, 25 passing yards, and 4 total touchdowns) I think LT just remembered what it’s like to dominate at the highest level. I think he’s going to continue to dominate. I think the Chargers are going to upset the defending Champs in New England. I think Jessica Biel is hot. Take the Chargers.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

Seattle (+2) at Washington – The Seahawks are going to kill the Washington Huskies… I mean the Redskins. Mark Brunell bought himself another week or two as a starter with two “GOD PLEASE!!!” throws to Santana Moss in the last 3 minutes of the Cowboy game in Week 2. Last week the Redskins couldn’t prove how bad they actually are because they had a bye. Clinton Portis has run better than last year, but the scheme in Washington still doesn’t fit his style of running. Mark Brunell wishes he had the same physical skill he used to have when he was the signal caller at the University of Washington. Mark needs more time than the Redskins line gives him. The Seahawks will blitz the Redskins until their helmets fall off, not allowing Brunell enough time to get his feet set and send bombs to Moss down field. Don’t overvalue the Redskins because they’re 2-0. They beat the Bears without scoring a single touchdown. They slipped by the Cowboys by scoring 2 touchdowns within 3 minutes of each other. They aren’t a dominate team. They aren’t high-powered enough to stick with the Hawks who just happen to have more weapons than Nick Cage in “God of War.” Take the Hawks in a minor upset in Washington. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

St. Louis (+3) at N.Y. Giants – What do you know, the Rams didn’t cover as favorites last week against the Titans. Well, the Rams are underdogs this week in New York. They’re playing an overrated Giants team who got trumped by the Chargers in Week 3. As I pointed out last week, the Rams’ have a poor record against the spread when they are the favorites. It’s different when they’re underdogs (5-5 in last 10) and even better when the spread is 4 or less (7-3 in last 10). Plus the Rams always like to surprise me, and originally I figure the Giants would win this game. So everything points to a Ram victory. Giants are overrated, the Rams trick me left and right, the Rams have a great record against the spread when they are underdogs, this is underdog weekend. See… Take the Rams!
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (-7) – I can’t take the New York Jets with Brooks Bollinger starting at quarterback. That’s it. Especially against a Ravens defense which has underachieved in each of their first two games. Ray Lewis and company can’t be happy with their offense, but even more so, they can’t be proud of their own lack of big plays. The Jets have tumbled off my play-off radar, and the Ravens will take advantage of that at home in Week 4. Jamal Lewis has to play better than 9 carries for 10 yards. Jamal hasn’t played to his ability, in fact the whole Raven team has underachieved. And just like Daunte Culpepper did last week, the Ravens will prove they are a contender in their third game. Take Baltimore to stomp Brooks Bollinger’s face mask into the turf. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:05 ET
Dallas at Oakland (-3.5) – Like I said, the Cowboys are the worst 2-1 team in football and the Raiders are the best 0-win team in the league. Dallas sucked last week, but they’re not as bad as San Francisco so they slipped past Tim Rattay and the 49ers. This week Randy Moss is going to catch two long bombs, plus a plethora of other big plays. Dallas doesn’t have the testis to take down the Raiders in Oakland. Kerry Collins played well last week against the Eagles, that marks the first week in the last 10 years that both Drew Bledsoe and Kerry Collins played a good game. Unfortunately for Randy and the Raiders, last week was similar to the first three games, Philadelphia pulled out a slim victory. Dallas’ weakness is in the secondary. Jerry Porter, Randy Moss, Courtney Anderson, and Lamont Jordan will find plenty of holes in the silver secondary. Take the Raiders to get their first victory since Randy made the move to Oak Town. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET
Minnesota (+6) at Atlanta – A little known fact is the Vikings cover in 66% of the games they are given points. Last week, “Baby Hands” Culpepper finally found a way to hold on to the ball last week against New Orleans. Daunte was balling up his baby fists and doing that “Daunte rollout celebration” thing he does. It was nice to see. Pep had zero turnovers for the first time this year, and the Viking defense played well enough to win. Daunte still doesn’t have a powerful running game, but even Mewelde Moore, Michael Bennett, and Moe Williams will look like a feared attack against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed a featured back to rush for over 140 yards in two of their first three games this year. Moore and company will do enough to keep the Falcon defense honest. Daunte will have his second good game in a row, throwing a late touchdown to lead his Minnesota Vikings to victory over the over-pumped Falcons.
Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET
Philadelphia (+2) at Kansas City – How about them Chiefs? Thanks for the big Monday night loss boys! How about them Eagles? That was a real nice thing you did, letting the Raiders play close enough to cover the spread. Thanks! These two Week 3 testi-smashers helped empty my wallet in week 3, but nothing was more disappointing than the Chiefs getting annihilated by the Broncos. The Eagles continue to find ways to win, and I can’t imagine Trent Green will stop them. The “new and improved” Chiefs defensive unit resembled the sieve they had last year in Kansas City. They’ll play better this week, but Philly has too many studs to let the Chiefs hold them in check. Donovan McNabb is still feeling effects from the shot he took in Week 1, but it hasn’t effected him since the Falcon game. The Eagles always play great as underdogs. This week will be the same old same old for Andy Reid and the Eagles. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET

San Francisco at Arizona (-2.5) – The 49ers should have walked away from the Dallas game at 2-1. Unfortunately they did just poorly enough to blow a huge lead against an average team, ruin my Sunday, and finish with another loss. Nice. This week, the underachieving Cardinals will play well enough to trounce the Niners. Dennis Green has had three weeks of frustration. They’ve lost in every fashion a team can. Their defense has played like garbage, and their offense has been pathetic. Rookie Antrel Rolle has been picked on by opposing offenses, he’ll play better this week. Look for a couple big plays from Rolle. Warner will be benched this week, so the Cards should play better ball. Josh McCowen is a decent quarterback who doesn’t hold on to the ball as long as Warner. This should help the Cardinals in a very important game. With the Hawks playing as well as they are, if the Cardinals lose to the bottom-dwelling Niners, they won’t have a chance at post-season football. Dennis Green will make this clear to his Cardinals, and they’ll play accordingly.
Game Date: 10/02/05 20:35 ET
Green Bay at Carolina (-8) – The Panthers are horrendous against the spread when favored. But as The Rock once told Wyclef Jean, “It Doesn’t Matter!” The Panthers are playing the winless Packers. The Packers tend to play like moldy piss until they don’t have a chance to pull out with a win. This week the Pack won’t play good football one single series. The Panthers are known for coming out tough after a big loss, and last week was definitely that. Miami is better than everyone, (including me) thought they’d be, but they aren’t as good as Carolina. Carolina will show how good they can be on the Monday Night stage, against the Green Bay Punching Bags. Brett Favre is catching some big time karma from bitching about Javon Walker not showing up to camp. Well Brett, Javon’s out for the year, and by the end of the season, or maybe even this game, you’ll wish you were out for the year. Take the Panthers in a rare win against the spread as they slaughter the Packers in Carolina. Game Date: 10/03/05 21:05 ET

Big Money Bet of the Week

Minnesota Vikings +210 against the Falcons in Atlanta. This a good chance to double your money riding a rejuvenated Daunte Culpepper against a less than stellar Falcon defense. Take the Vikings to come through with an outright win. Game Date: 10/02/04 16:15 ET
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Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks