Tag Archives: Week 4 Picks Review

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 4

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Well, I’m eating in to my early winning ways, that’s for sure. Luckily I was up 9 games going into Week 3, because, 3 and 4 weren’t good to me at all. After 4 more losses than wins in Week 3 I finished Week 4 only a little better, 6-8. I’m still up headed into Week 5, but that hot early start isn’t as dreamy as it once was. Here’s the haps…

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Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10): (WINNER) This was a pretty weird game, the Lions kept it a game for most of the day, but ended up losing by 24. It wasn’t that quite like that, tied at 21 going into half, but I have to say I was still thinking I was going to cover this one going into the second frame. The Bears got some help from the big play on special teams and defense, not needing to do much yardage-wise, but Jay and Forte did plenty, and the Lions gave me a winner to start my day. Needless to say it went down hill from here.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (LOSS) The Browns came to play, no doubt about that, and the Bengals just kind of snuck by in this one. The Books moved and moved, but even the Browns at +3.5 ended up being a good bet. Weird, those tricky books. Cleveland ran the ball really well, something I didn’t think they’d be able to do. That right there was enough to keep them right in the hunt against the Bengals. I thought that I, and the rest of the public, was walking into some free money after the Bengals went up 14-0 early in the 2nd quarter, but the Browns fought back to take the lead, 20-14. The Bengals seemingly iced all hopes for bettors by scoring what everyone thought would be the go-ahead touchdown, only the extra point they actually needed to “go ahead”. That gave me just an ounce of hope, as a Bengals TD would get me the cover. It wasn’t to be, a field goal in the final seconds of OT (that looked like it missed by the way) was good, and the Bengals do just enough to win without covering. This, not the first game, was a sign of my day to come.

Oakland Raiders (+9) @ Houston Texans: (LOSS) The Raiders can’t run or throw, I feel like a took box for taking these gong-show outcasts in any game with any spread. How bad can a pro-team be? Poor Richard Seymour, I feel bad for the guy. Darren McFadden… Really? Al Davis is poison.

Seattle Seahawks (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) Seattle couldn’t run the ball, and their play-calling sucked, for the second straight week. Peyton Manning was at the top of his game, and I again feel like a dope for thinking the Hawks had good value here. Damn.

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Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (LOSS) “70% like Tennessee here. This is a very tough one for me, but in the end I’m with them. I would like to preface my selection with this: if the Titans weren’t 0-3 I would be taking the Jaguars here for sure. I think Jacksonville should find some openings in the Titan secondary, and MJD will probably have a decent day despite Tennessee’s stellar run defense. But the Titans can’t go 0-4.” Apparently they can. Like I said, this one was very tough for me, and I let the Titans “need” to get a win get in the way of me actual winning. Out-thought by myself again!

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs (+9): (LOSS) “The Giants have beaten the Chiefs by 10 or more points every time these two teams have played since 1998. Now that doesn’t mean much to me, I’m just saying so you know. The Giants can really run the ball, the Chiefs can’t stop the run. The Giants take full advantage of the passes they do attempt, the Chiefs shoot themselves in the foot with penalties like it’s their job. The Chiefs struggle with pressure put on them by opposing defenses, the Giants can make life hell on most quarterbacks while rushing just four guys. Now, I wanted to let you know all that stuff before I told you this: I’m taking the Chiefs (+9). Call me nuts,” Hey, dude, you’re nuts! Out-thought by myself again! The Giants didn’t run real well, but the Chiefs don’t play to win and if it weren’t for two lousy touchdowns late this game would look even more pathetic than it does already.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-1.5): (WINNER) This game was very tight, and I think the Ravens got screwed around a bit, plus a late dropped pass killed any chance they had. I still like the Patriots at home to win straight up against anyone. I always will, until Tom Brady hangs ’em up. He’s a winner, that’s what he does.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7): (LOSS)  After Santana Moss’s touchdown catch, from the human turnover machine, Jason Campbell, I thought the Redskins were going to walk away with this one, despite missing an extra point that eliminated my push. But I gave clown Zorn (who I once thought would be a good coach) too much credit. He started playing not-to-lose and everyone knows that’s a terrible way to score points. He didn’t lose though, only I did. Damn the man!

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Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): (WINNER) The Dolphins kicked around the Bills, and I’m actually hoping that TO holds it together in Buffalo and doesn’t flip out because this coaching staff is really too cautious for them to win enough games to keep TO smiling. And honestly, I’ve seen enough of TO pissed off, fighting off idiot media bastards, and just being sad. Guy can be the saddest man in the world some times. I hope he just fights it, keeps plodding on, and has some good games going forward. But I’m sure glad they got kicked around this week by Ronnie Brown and the youngster, Chad Henne, because I needed a win something fierce!

New York Jets (+7) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) I don’t know. The Saints defense has made a magical change from last year to this. Amazing. They are good. They don’t give you anything, running or passing, and they come after you. I’m impressed. But the Jets still should have covered this game. If Sanchez doesn’t make a couple huge rookie mistakes, the Saits aren’t given 14 points to play with early. But, Mark is a rookie, and I took his squad, knowing damn well there was a chance the rook could make some of those mis-reads. I’ll take this one on the chin.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Denver Broncos: (LOSS) I loved getting this game wrong. Josh McDaniels has been one of my favorites since he had no problem trying to help special princess players off the team from the beginning. That’s how you make a team tough. Is his team tough? Hell yes, tougher than any Bronco team has been in a long time. I missed on this one, though Dallas had all the opportunity to keep this from being a game early. Tony Romo and company just can’t get the job done when it matters most. And Roy Williams, you are a sandy-crotched marshmallow. Get in the damn game to try and help your team. Your ribs hurt? Good lord. Dude is a princess.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5): (WINNER) “The 49ers are as good as they’ve shown. They have a stout defense that brings it every play. They have elite players in the secondary, in the line backing crew, and on the defensive line. They have an offense that pounds it until opposing defenses can’t take it anymore. The only reason I’d take the Rams here is because they actually have a chance now that Marc Bulger is out. I think last week’s last second loss puts some piss and vinegar into the 49ers this week. They should be 3-0 if black magic didn’t strike them dead in Week 3. St. Louis is still the worst team in football, even with Bulger finally on the sidelines. This win would make San Francisco undefeated against the entire NFC West to start the season, and I know Mike Singletary will have made that an emphasis for this playoff bound 49ers squad. Now the 49ers aren’t going to win a lot of games by double digits, but they’re not going to play the Rams very often, either. Take them here, despite the high spread.” Even on the tough weeks, you have to hit some right on the nail – this was one of those.

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San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5): (WINNER)  “Even the Steelers can run the ball against San Diego’s defense. Now Pittsburgh has played pretty poorly to start the season, never being able to finish, and lucking out to have just one win thus far (they should have lost to the Titans). But they’ll play better in this one. THe Chargers aren’t good defensively, and I don’t think they run with any success in Pittsburgh. I don’t think the world of the Steelers but doubt they drop to 1-3 to start the season, not with all that open room to accrue yardage against the Chargers defense. How does San Diego’s 24-20 win over Oakland look right now? How about their 10 point win against Miami when they were down 6-3 after Chad Pennington went down? Listen, neither of these teams is as good as everyone thought heading into the season, but Pittsburgh is still the better team. I like the over here a lot as well, but since I only take sides, I’ll just say I’m leaning on the over. Many big plays in this one, Steelers by 10 at home on Sunday Night Football.” It took just about 3 full quarters for SD to get anything going, but then they made me look brilliant. The Steelers win and cover by 10, the over gets smashed, everyone has to agree with me about who is the better team, and basically everything I said was true. And I needed this one really bad.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): (WINNER) It wasn’t how I thought it was going to be, the Vikings didn’t run all over the Packers – Green Bay obviously focused a lot on stopping AP, and they did that pretty well. But Brett killed them. The last thing the Packers must have wanted was for Brett to come out like a cowboy and just shoot them down with a smile. But that’s what happened. The game got close at the end, and I was a little worried with the Packers marching down 10 – but the Vikings held and covered for me.

NCAA Football Free Picks Review: Week 4

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5-6 yet another yawner, and I didn’t even get a push. The Husky game really surprised me in how much of a lopsided battle that was. Historical close games didn’t repeat in Week 4, as there were some big blowouts. Tim Tebow got blasted, hospitalized, and the Gators still romped over the Wildcats… Here’s how the games went…

Mississippi Rebels (-3.5) @ South Carolina Gamecocks: (LOSS) This was Thursday Night, so only crazy could happen – but still, when you consider how poorly Mississippi moved the ball on the Gamecocks, and how poor a very good quarterback played, to be a 6 point game at the end is just crazy. South Carolina came to play and dominated a pretty good offensive line. I started off with a loss.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5): (WINNER) Yet another example of what rankings mean: The Tar Heels busted into the Top 25 last week, and Georgia Tech got pushed out… Yet here they were, favored, and pummeling the Tar Heels on the ground. Accruing fewer penalties and rushing for 317 yards on the Tar Heels. Easy win for me, and the Jackets.

Indiana Hoosiers (+21) @ Michigan Wolverines: (WINNER) “Michigan’s one win over Notre Dame makes them a 21 point favorite? That’s a little much for me. They are bigger, faster, and stronger than Indiana, no doubt, but the separation between these two teams isn’t three touchdowns,” and I was right on the button there. Michigan has the athletes, but these two teams were very even, close enough for Michigan to need a score with 2 minutes left to finally pull ahead for good. The Hoosiers lost by 3, I won by 18…

Miami Hurricanes @ Virginia Tech Hokies (+2): (WINNER) “Hokies as an underdog at their own place seems like enough for them to play with a chip firmly planted on their shoulders. That should be enough to hand Miami their first loss. I almost always, always, bet on the lower ranked favored team, but nothing is always right, and I think this one goes the other way.” When the feel of the game gets you to bet against your own little kind-of-system, you just have to go and do it. Sure enough, the Hokies came out and were riled up, using that excitement to beat up on the Canes in every facet of the game. Hokies win big, Miami comes back to reality a little bit.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Clemson Tigers (-2.5): (LOSS) This was one heck of a battle, and it could have gone either way. C.J. Spiller was a beast, leading the team in rushing and receiving. What finally got the Tigers was their trouble to convert on 3rd and 4th downs. They were up heading into the 4th, but failing to get it done on three consecutive 4th downs was too much in the end, and the Horned Frogs kept their stellar season going.

Arkansas Razorbacks (+17) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: (LOSS) The Razorbacks played pretty well against Alabama’s rushing attack, holding them to 3.3 yards per carry, a pretty low number for the Tide. However, the Razorbacks shot themselves in the foot early, and after they cut it to 14-7 early in the 3rd, the Tide tossed an 80 yard touchdown pass that really broke those Razor-backs, as Bama went on to cruise.

Akron Zips (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas: (LOSS) “This game is actually a nice little rivalry between a couple solid small college programs. I still think these two teams always play it close, and I like that to stay the same this weekend.” What can you say, I was wrong here. This game was all Chippewas from the outset, dominating on offense and keeping the Zips from gaining any sort of yards. SOB!!!

Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators (-21.5): (WINNER)  “I know, the flu is going around Florida’s squad, and things are looking slowed down a bit after Tennessee played them close, but Kentucky isn’t going to run clock, and Tim Tebow doesn’t have sickness, he’s made of antibiotics. I think Florida wins by four scores, proving a point this week after a mediocre performance against the Vols.” The Gators won easily, and Tebow may be made of antibiotics, but he’s not immune to getting concussed on a huge blind side hit, I know that for sure. Florida didn’t miss a beat when Tebow headed to the hospital, as they dominated the Wildcats to the tune of 41-7.

Boise State Broncos @ Bowling Green Falcons (+17): (LOSS) Boise State is just too good. I keep waiting for them to slow down, but their new #5 ranking shows what the polls think of them. I might have to agree, this defense is way better than I ever thought they’d be, and they are led by one hell of a quarterback talent. Moore has amazing touch. Still, I thought I was sitting pretty after the 1st quarter as the Broncos had yet to score and the game was tied at 0. Silly, me, it was 28-0 after the first half and 4 2nd quarter scores – I had lost my spread by halftime.

Iowa Hawkeyes (+10) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: (WINNER) “Iowa has taken out the Nittany Lions 6 of the last 7 meetings, that’s gone past coincidence in my book, so I have to go against my gut and hopes and heart and take Iowa.” As a Penn State fan (as much as I’m a fan of any football team), this one was tough to stomach. But I certainly got into this one in the right way, the Hawkeyes did the Lions dirty for the 7th time in the last 8 meetings.

Washington Huskies (+7) @ Stanford Cardinal: (LOSS) I still can’t believe this was a 34-14 beating. The Huskies aren’t that bad and the Cardinal aren’t that good. Maybe I just underestimated the effect Stanford’s great offensive line and running attack would have on the Huskies poor rush defense. I think that is obviously the case as Toby Gerhart ran for 200 yards and the Cardinal put up 320+ on the Huskies.