Sunday Observations: Week 6 NFL Football

My buddy Josh had this great idea, take some of our best comments to each other from Sunday’s action, the group’s best and worst textual masterpieces, and put them together in one article for all to see. Sometimes our day-time observations can be priceless, other times hilarious, and every once in a while even useful. You need to know, I have Sunday ticket, Josh is braving the darkness of Alaska and whichever games they show up there, Papa never leaves his dungeon, and Red Red Ryan couldn’t take part in this week’s texting session because his red hair (and female partner) wouldn’t allow him to do so. The bottom line is, we all watch football in different places, so we keep our texting handy to pretend we’re watching the games together. So, Red was out this week but still, Papa, Josh, and I sent texts to and fro. Here’s the Top 15, compiled by yours truly…

Josh Arsenault

1. Percy Harvin is a speed guy that loves to hit people… Watch him block from the slot and it’s easy to see why the Vikings love him.

2. Ray Rice’s game reminds me of MJD…. He and Flacco have a chance to be special for a long time.

3. John Fox makes coaching look hard… Here’s a tip, Foxy: D-Will, D-Will, J-Stew, D-Will, J-Stew, J-Stew, D-Will… Somebody get this guy a Tecmo Bowl playbook.

4. There is nobody in the NFL I enjoy watching lose more than Jay Cutler… Except maybe Al Davis… Here’s hoping Culter winds up with the Raiders at some point.

5. No team is more bi-polar than the Seattle Seahawks… Their two wins were shutouts (28-0 and 41-0) and their four losses have been by an average margin of 15 points. Which one will it be coming off their bye?

Lucky Lester

1. Rummaging through the games I think I’ve watched five offensive plays by the Bills, and I’m pretty damn sure Terrell Owens has three drops. If the average team has 60 offensive plays, TO is on pace to drop 36 balls based on my numbers – that has to be a record.

2. Joshua Cribbs is unreal, but unless he returns 5 kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, the Browns aren’t going to have a chance to win this game.

3. How do nine football games manage to all be on commercial at the same time, and not one has reached half time? On the bright side, the Tampa game is showing their cheerleaders, and I’m pretty sure they are only wearing jerseys – there might be black panties under there, but I’m not sure.

4. The Jaguars must really stink, because Maurice Jones Drew is really freaking good and they still suck.

5. I hate watching Jake Delhomme, he’s like a Ben Stiller movie, I feel embarrassed for the guy. He tries so hard but he just keeps zipping his junk up in his zipper. The guy can dig himself a hole with the best of them.

Papa Weimer

1. I hope Jim Zorn realizes that it’s not the quarterback, it’s him. Jason Campbell is better than Todd Collins, that’s why he’s started over the past 2 seasons. It’s the play calling, the dead end coaching spot, and the general broke down feeling of the Skins franchise.

2. I feel bad for Todd Haley, his offense plays like the last 3 eight grade teams I coached. They jump off-sides like it’s their job, they miss assignments all day long, and they do just enough to give you a glimmer of hope before they rip it away with a holding penalty and two jumps off-sides on back2back2back plays.

3. If you got paid a million dollars to get knocked out, and you got to pick one guy to make sure the job got done right, which player in the league would you choose to rock your world? I got Ray Lewis. (Josh replies, Brian Dawkins) (Lucky replies, Aaron Curry)

4. Hahahaha… The Rams are going to win, the Rams are going to win! Leonard Little, pick 6, the worst team in the league won’t tie the Lions for the worst record ever!

5. The Rams lose. Figures. If the Rams and Bucs gave all their best players to fight for a singular cause, they’d still get beat 12 times a year.

St. Louis Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free Pick

no banners

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Now lets start with some interesting statistics this year. The Rams have lost every game by double digits, besides their 2 point loss to the Washington Redskins, and lets be honest, that really doesn’t count. That being said, they have played some pretty damn good teams, the Seahawks in Week 1 had Matt Hasselbeck, and everyone has seen how different they are with him at the helm. Week 3, 4, and 5 saw Green Bay, San Francisco, and Minnesota meet up with the Rams, and the outcomes weren’t pretty. I mean, they’ve managed just 34 points through 5 games, even the Browns think that’s terrible. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a very up and down team. They played the Colts tough in Week 1, losing 14-12 to Peyton and company. They then got thrown around in Jacksonville by the Cardinals, 31-17, and to be honest it wasn’t that close. Two straight wins to even up their record (taking down the Texans and Titans) got them some respect before Seattle came back to destroy any of that by beating them 41-0. That score isn’t a misprint. I’ve missed on the Jaguars a lot this year, but I still don’t think they deserved to be favored by 10 points against anybody. The Rams are getting healthy, as they should have the healthiest offense they’ve had all year. If they commit to the run, and I think they will, they have a chance to cover agaisnt the Jaguars. They are the worst team in football, but I haven’t liked what I’ve heard out of Jacksonville this week. Turmoil isn’t good when you’re about to play a game that’s difficult to get up for in the first place. It might be a one time thing, but I’m taking St. Louis.

NFL Free Picks: Week 14

I guess I knew it was coming, but I’d been so consistent that I was feeling like I’d go an entire year without a big loser. 5-10-1 got me right in the junk, and I dropped 5 games on my season total – these are the days that make pushing not feel so bad. I’m not doing anything different next week than I did every single game prior to this, I’m just marking this down as an anomaly. This is how I got got in Week 14. 


Oakland Raiders (+11) San Diego Chargers: (LOSS) It started off in Oakland where the Raiders came out like it was their job to S#!T the bed. I mean, look at the Chargers stats. LT needed 25 carries to accumulate 91 yards – he scored, but still, that’s a good job by Oakland’s defense. Phillip Rivers was 10-22 for just over 200 yards, but those 3 TDs really helped. Still, there’s not much to like about San Diego’s game, the Raiders just really sucked. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WIN) This was an obvious one. Thank goodness for that. 

Minnesota Vikings (-9) @ Detroit Lions: (LOSS) Well the Lions had a win in their sights and let it slip away. Minnesota is out to get me, that much I know for sure. 

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5): (LOSS) How far the Packers have fallen. This secondary gets torched for 400+ yards through the air, and Steve Slaton breaks them up for over 100 yards on the ground to boot. Not only do they get torched, but Houston wins the game with a late field goal. A terrible road team from Texas came into a cold Green Bay in a must win situation for the Packers and won. I’m lost here I guess. Ha.

Cincinnati Bengals (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) All the numbers in the world had me going with the Bengals in this one. I guess it just wasn’t meant to be this Sunday. 

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS)This game yo-yo’d back and forth for quite some time, but Drew and the Saints got it done on the ground just enough to oust the Falcons. This is going to be a sad thing to see one, maybe two of these NFC South teams out of the playoffs. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ New York Giants: (WIN) I was pretty on about this one. The Eagles needed this game and played the Giants tough two times in a row. +9 is too much to give a very talented team that needs a win. 

Cleveland Browns (+15) @ Tennessee Titans: (LOSS) Yeah, the Browns are even worst than I thought. 

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (pk): (LOSS) It’s nice to see the Bills completely collapse before the Super Bowl – that’s a new one for the old school Buffalo fans. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) Well, the Chiefs didn’t run the ball as much as I thought they would, and Thigpen completed just over half his passes – but the Chiefs still covered by a field goal. 

New York Jets (-3.5) San Francisco 49ers:  (LOSS) “I probably wouldn’t play this game for too much out of the wallet, it has the makings of a huge upset.” Well I lost, but at least I warned you. I would have never expected the Jets and Brett to play absolutely terrible in back to back important games. Nobody’s going to give them a free ride to the playoffs. 

St. Louis Rams (+14) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) Ugh – when I pick dogs like this and they lose, I feel like one big damned idiot. Oh well, on to next week!

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): (WIN) Dallas should have won this game – keep that in mind for next week’s action. The Steelers didn’t do anything offensively, and they needed Dallas to give them this game. But I’ll take it. 

New England Patriots (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks: (PUSH) New England didn’t play like a playoff team, but they did enough, just barely enough, to get a fighting Seahawks team. They didn’t do enough to cover the spread I needed to win, but at least I got my money back, more than I can say for 10 of these games. 

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): (WIN) “I don’t know how the Redskins are going to score against the Ravens. Clinton Portis is the walking wounded, he hasn’t practiced in weeks, and the Redskins haven’t been all that good with him on the field in the first place. I like the Skins, but they don’t take enough chances down field, and Santana Moss has been ignored lately. Baltimore’s defense is awesome, but it’s their offense doing enough that has me on their side. I don’t think the Redskins can hold Baltimore under 17 points, and I don’t see the Redskins scoring more than 10. That’s a cover in my book.” You have to admit, when I break a game down like this, you start to believe in me just a little bit more. 🙂

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: (LOSS) I don’t know how the Bucs gave up a million yards on the ground, but they did. I always say, if the Panthers can run, they’re a Top 5 team in the league. Well here it comes folks, watch out for the Panthers, because after Monday Night Football, they showed me they could pretty much run on anyone.

NFL Free Picks: Week 4

Well, the ever-so-popular sleeper pick Brownies are 0-3, so are the Bengals. Get this, one of them is guaranteed to be 0-4. Which will it be? Is it possible that Cleveland starts the ’08 season just like the Saints started the ’07 season? Did either team make me forget what I thought about them before their Week 3 game? Anything is possible. Check out which other teams I see being winless when Week 4 is over…

Denver Broncos (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs:
When one team will just put up too many points for another to stay close: The Broncos – Chiefs saga. Unless this game was a 2 touchdown spread, I just can’t buy the Chiefs hanging around. They couldn’t do it with the Falcons, and they were ousted by the Raiders – the Broncos should blow another division foe right out of the water. The only question is how will the Broncos do it? I feel like Splinter Shannahan has taken on the Patriots persona from last year – put up as many points as you can as fast as possible and make teams uncomfortable early and often. The two point conversion. Passing late in the game against the Saints. I think they’ll put up 50 on the Chiefs just to try and piss some people off.

Cleveland Browns (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
As much as I hate betting on the Browns right now, there’s just no way I can justify taking the Bengals as a favorite. You know why? Because they shouldn’t be favored to do anything but lose. I realize that Cleveland has played terrible thus far, and I also know that the Bengals were a couple Eli Manning passes away from a big upset over the Giants – but which team is better suited to win here? I’m thinking the Browns, honestly. Jamal Lewis will run easily on the Bengals, and Cincinnati isn’t consistent enough to pull too far ahead. I like the dogs here – as much as I can like a Brown anyway.

Houston Texans  @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5):
I would take the Texans if they didn’t play such horrible football away from home. Jacksonville is a tough place to play, mainly because they have a defense that halts drives and an offense that pounds defenses into submission. This game should be close early, but I would think a late score puts the Jaguars up by two touchdowns and that’s how the game ends. Again, I like the Texans – in Texas – but when they get mailed a couple states away they just aren’t the same team. If this game gets to +10, then I like then I would advise bettors to steer clear – but you can get 7.5 now, so go for the gusto!

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The Packers were handled pretty well by the Cowboys, but Tamps isn’t Dallas, and even though this game is on the road, I don’t see Green Bay losing two in a row. They’ll come back after a mediocre performance against Dallas and handle the Bucs easily. Tampa Bay won’t be able to do to Green Bay what they did to Chicago, 400+ passing yards is out of the question. Expect less scoring and a nice road win against a solid defense for the Packers.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints :
This is a really tough one, so I’ll take the points. I don’t think the Niners are a good team quite yet, but neither are the Saints. New Orleans is getting points as if their best receiver (Colston) and their second best receiver (Shockey) aren’t out for a couple weeks with injuries. News flash, neither will play on Sunday. The 49ers have one of the best corners in the league in Nate Clements, he should shut down one side of the field for Drew Brees. With defensive speed and pass rushing prowess, I think the 49ers can pressure Drew into some mistakes. I’m sure Reggie Bush will find some room to thrive, and certainly New Orleans will rely on the run more in this one(Bush, Thomas, and McCallister), but that helps my case for taking the points. The 49ers look like the best value here.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-7):
I don’t know about this one. I don’t like the Panthers as a favorite, they are well known as heart breakers from that side of the betting spectrum, but I think Atlanta is getting a little bit too much credit here. They have a nice rushing attack, surely, but Carolina has a nice defense and a secondary that should be able to snag a couple arrant passes from Matt Ryan. I certainly like the Falcons future, but they are a 7-9 team at best. The Panthers are playoff caliber with a defense that is putting it all together. Coming off a loss last week in Minnesota, I think the Panthers come back strong against a Falcons defense that can’t chose one thing to stop. If the Panthers can run, and they can against Atlanta, they are a top notch football team. A touchdown seems like a lot, but I’d bet they cover.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (-3):
I think the Titans are the better team here, they are playing in Tennessee, and their secondary isn’t as much of a question mark as the one in Minnesota. The Vikings will want to run, and with a stud like Adrian Peterson and a great back up like Chester Taylor, there is definitely something to like there. But they are going up against a Titans defense that is very good at taking the run away. I don’t think the Vikings can succeed without a rushing attack. I think the Titans do enough with their offense to take advantage of a weak secondary, and being at home I really like their chances to go 4-0 with a win in Week 4.

Buffalo Bills (-8) @ St. Louis Rams:
Not much about the Rams to like here. Sure, they could pull a Bengals and do well against the visiting Bills, but the chances of that happening aren’t great. I still don’t like giving 8 points to the Bills – they take too few chances to be a sure thing to win by a large margin, so I pick this game advising that you be a little bit careful – but right now there is absolutely no reason to like anything the Rams put out there. They lost to a Seahawk team that was down and out, and they didn’t even put up a fight. Steven Jackson is running a lot like Shawn Alexander did last year, Bulger is benched, and though Tory Holt is still always open, the offensive line can’t give a quarterback enough time to get him the ball. Take the Bills!

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) @ Oakland Raiders:
Is this the week that Kiffin gets the axe? It must be hard, as a player, to go week to week wondering that same question. Sure, they can look past it for the first week or two, but soon the realization that you are playing for a guy that is inevitably getting fired kicks in. That never helps a team. The Chargers are about to pull off maybe 5 or 6 straight wins, and right now a mediocre Raiders team is trying to play the part of speed bump. Take the Chargers here – it shouldn’t be much of a contest.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears:
I don’t buy the Bears as a playoff team. I’m buying the Eagles as a threat to be in the Super Bowl come February though. Chicago showed me last week, that if Philly wants to, they can throw the ball all over the Bears’ secondary. That’s not a good sign for Bears fans. McNabb isn’t 100% coming into this game, but I think he’ll play, and I think he’ll play well in his home state. Look for DeSean Jackson to shine as well – this should be a big win for the Eagles.

Washington Redskins (+11.5) @ Dallas Cowboys:
I do think the Cowboys are one of the best teams in football, but I don’t think they are a good value at +11.5 against the Redskins, even with the game being played in Dallas. Washington has a nice passing attack and a runner in Clinton Portis that poses enough of a threat to keep the Cowboys on their toes. The Redskins have fought back nicely after getting embarrased a little in their first game of the season. Jim Zorn isn’t as wet behind the ears as he seemed in week 1, and I like their chances to make a couple big plays that keep this game within 10.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7):
The Steelers are a very good football team, especially at home. The Eagles shut them down a bit last week, but I don’t think the Steelers offense is that questionable. They didn’t look good against the Browns two weeks ago, but like I said, the Steelers are a different beast in Pittsburgh, and even with Willie Parker out, I still expect them to run on the Ravens a bit. Rashard Mendenhall, though he hasn’t done anything yet, is a very good back with the power and speed to do work against the best of defenses. I think that, without Willie, the Steelers will take more chances through the air, and that should mean good things for Santonio Holmes and the Steelers offense. As of right now the only line on this game is from a big casino, and I’m sure the books are waiting to see if Ben Roethlisberger is going to play. If he’s not playing, this line doesn’t exist, and I’ll try to get back on an make a proper pick. But for now, I’ll take the Steelers by more than a touchdown against a Ravens team that will find moving the ball next to impossible versus the Steel Show.